1.Nuclear Renaissance: Fact or Fiction Thomas Simmons Thomas Edison State College

2. Why we chose this topic 3. Our Approach Sort through the hype Determine drivers and constraints Research Find the balance 4. My Topics Abstract Introduction Industrial Bottlenecks Energy Security Climate Change Politics 5. Industrial Bottlenecks Last major expansion occurred in the 80s 150 reactors under construction in that era Diminished capacity since then Milestone for future projections What can we build now? 35 to 60 1,000 MW reactors per year 6. Industrial Bottlenecks Problems with this projection Most of the construction occurred in only three countries Some plants are under construction for years 7. Industrial Bottlenecks Despite the skewed numbers, historical growth rates could be matched But it would require more than simply building new plants 8. Industrial Bottlenecks Heavy forgings = most significant bottleneck Only 3 suppliers in the world Why not build more? Hugely expensive so investors wont move forward without firm orders in place 9. Industrial Bottlenecks Effect of bottlenecks will vary by country depending on the type of economy No single company can build a nuclear power plant collaboration is required for expansion As a whole, industrial bottlenecks act as a constraint 10. Energy Security What is energy security? Not self-sufficiency Rather it is diversity of production method and reliability of source 11. Energy Security How does nuclear provide energy security? Uranium is relatively cheap Its easy to stockpile Its abundant A very reliable source 12. Energy Security More uranium would be required to support a renaissance Secondary sources of uranium: Phosphate deposits Seawater These only become viable if the price of uranium rises 13. Energy Security Thorium as a reactor fuel? More abundant than uranium Not fissionable in its natural state Verdict: Not in the near future 14. Energy Security Mixed Oxide Fuel another alternative Currently employed in France Drawbacks: Requires reprocessing capability Difficult and dangerous to fabricate Expensive Minimal overall waste reduction Proliferation risks 15. Energy Security Drawbacks of nuclear as a means to achieve energy security: Unsuitable for varying electricity demand High fixed costs vs. variable costs Must be run at full capacity Only suitable for baseload electrical power Cannot provide energy to the transportation sector 16. Energy Security Most significant drawback: Entire industry is supplied by a handful of countries and companies Only 2 power plant vendors left Nuclear power = dependence 17. Energy Security Nuclear power increases diversity Excellent source of baseload electricity Uranium is a dependable fuel supply Cannot provide independence 18. Energy Security Energy security means different things to different countries Energy policies will vary widely Will this be a constraint or driver for a renaissance? Depends on the country 19. Climate Change Is climate change a driver? Depends on how the world reacts to the perceived threat And how nuclear compares to the alternatives 20. Climate Change Why is nuclear so appealing as a means to combat climate change? It provides large amounts of energy while producing no carbon dioxide 21. Climate Change Other options for reducing carbon emissions: Solar, wind, conservation and efficiency measures Nuclear has long lead times and huge upfront costs Not the most cost-effective way to combat climate change 22. Climate Change Driver or constraint? Gives people a reason to consider nuclear driver Nuclear doesnt compare well with the alternatives constraint Overall impact neutral 23. Politics Politics influence energy policy A nuclear energy program represents national power This may override other concerns 24. Politics Nuclear hedging another motivation May prompt some countries to pursue nuclear energy 25. Politics The idea of a renaissance has been strongly promoted by the United States Nuclear Power 2010 Program provided subsidies for new generation plants Global Nuclear Energy Partnership promotes the use of nuclear power throughout the world 26. Politics France aggressively promotes nuclear power Home to Areva & EDF Russia hopes to follow the French example 27. Politics Other advocates of nuclear power: International Atomic Energy Agency Nuclear Energy Agency World Nuclear Association 28. Politics Public support on the rise International : 2009 poll of 10,000 people in 20 countries found more than 2/3 in favor United States: 2008 poll found 67% in favor 29. Politics Public opinion is nuanced and support is not overwhelming A landscape of beliefs exists not simply pro- or anti-nuclear stances Support is conditional could easily be lost Support fell after Fukushima Advocacy by government/industry can skew public opinion 30. Politics Many claim public support is a key driver for a nuclear renaissance Yet it has significant weaknesses: Its conditional Its fragile Swayed by pro- and anti-nuclear agents Public opinion is not a true driver 31. Conclusion Industrial Bottlenecks Constraint Energy Security & Climate Change may be Neutral Politics not a strong Driver Nuclear renaissance is unlikely 32. References Accenture Newsroom. (2009, March). Consumers Warm to Nuclear Power in Fight Against Fossil Fuel Dependency. Retrieved January 30, 2014, from http://newsroom.accenture.com/article_display.cfm?articl e_id=4810 Alger, J. (2009, September). From Nuclear To The Bomb: The Proliferation Potential Of New Nuclear Energy Programs. (Nuclear Energy Futures Paper No.6). Ontario, Canada: Centre for International Governance Innovation. 33. References Commonwealth of Australia. (2006). Uranium Mining, Processing and Nuclear Energy Opportunities for Australia. Retrieved February 1, 2014, from http://www.ansto.gov.au/_data/assets/pdf_file/0005/3897 5/Umpner_report_2006.pdf Frogatt, A. & Schneider, M. (2008). The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2007. Brussels, Belgium: European Parliament. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Retrieved February 4, 2014, from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf 34. References International Framework for Nuclear Energy Cooperation. (n.d.). Retrieved January 29, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.orgwikiInternational_Framework_for_ Nuclear_Energy_Cooperation Keystone Center. (2007, June). Nuclear Power Joint Fact-Finding. Keystone, Colorado: Keystone Center. Loukianova, A. (2008, November). The International Uranium Enrichment Centre at Argansk: A Step Towards Assured Fuel Supply. Retrieved January 30, 2014, from http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/uranium-enrichmentangarsk/ 35. References Lovins, A. & Sheikh, I. (2008). The Nuclear Illusion. Retrieved February 4, 2014, from http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/E0801_NuclearIllusion. MacKay, D. (2009). Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air. Cambridge, United Kingdom: UIT. MacLachlan, A. (2008, April). Newcomers to Nuclear Power Urged to Join Nuclear Safety Convention. Nucleonics Week, April 17. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. (2003). Future of Nuclear Power. Boston: MIT. 36. References Nuclear Energy Agency. (2008, November). Nuclear Energy Outlook 2008. (NEA No. 6436). Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Nuclear Power 2010 Program. (n.d.). Retrieved January 29, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Power_2010_Progra m Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. (2013). Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013. Vienna, Austria: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 37. References Pew Research Center. (2011, March). Opposition to Nuclear Power Rises Amid Japanese Crisis. Retrieved January 31, 2014, from http://www.peoplepress.org/2011/03/21/opposition-to-nuclear-power-risesamid-japanese-crisis/ Pidgeon, N., Henwood, K., & Simmons, P. (2008). Living with Nuclear Power in Britain: A Mixed-Methods Study. Retrieved January 31, 2014, from Cardiff University School of Psychology Web site: http://psych.cf.ac.uk/understandingrisk/docs/livingwithnu clearpower.pdf 38. References Pomper, M. A. (2009, December). US International Nuclear Energy Policy: Change and Continuity. (Nuclear Energy Futures Paper No. 10). Ontario, Canada. Centre for International Governance Innovation. Position of the ASN Commission: The safety of new nuclear reactor construction projects worldwide has to be ensured. (2008, June). Retrieved January 29, 2014, from http://www.french-nuclearsafety.fr/index.php/English-version/Newsreleases/2008/Position-of-the-ASN-Commission-Thesafety-of-new-nuclear-reactor 39. References Pouret, L. & Nuttall, W. (n.d.). Can Nuclear Power Be Flexible?. United Kingdom: University of Cambridge, Judge Business School. Research Council of Norway. (2008, February). Thorium as an Energy Source Opportunities for Norway. Retrieved February 2, 2014, from http://www.forskningsradet.no/servlet/Satellite?blobcol=u rldata &blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1= Content-Disposition%3A&blobheadervalue1=+ attachment%3B+filename%3D%22ThoriumReport2008. pdf%22&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere =1274460381214&ssbinary=true 40. References United States Energy Information Administration. (n.d.) Annual Energy Outlook 2014. Retrieved February 1, 2014, from http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2014).pdf Von Hippel, F. (2008). Nuclear Fuel Recycling: More Trouble Than Its Worth. Scientific American, 298, 90. World Nuclear Association. (2013, August). Heavy Manufacturing of Power Plants. Retrieved January 31, 2014, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/NuclearFuel-Cycle/Power-Reactors/Heavy-Manufacturing-ofPower-Plants/ 41. References World Nuclear Association. (2013, September). Processing of Used Nuclear Fuel. Retrieved February 2, 2014, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/NuclearFuel-Cycle/Fuel-Recycling/Processing-of-Used-NuclearFuel/ World Nuclear Association. (n.d.). Retrieved January 30, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Nuclear_ Association World Nuclear News. (2008, June). Poll: Two-thirds of Americans back new nuclear. Retrieved January 30, 2014, from http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/ITTwo-