thomas a. stewart executive director, the national center for the middle market middle market...
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Thomas A. StewartExecutive Director, The National Center for the Middle Market
Middle Market Update:F I N D I N G S F R O M N C M M ’ S Q 2 ‘ 1 4 I N D I C AT O R S U R V E Y
ACG Global Webinar Series | July 30, 2014 | 2:00-3:00 PM EST
+Comprehensive, Relevant Middle Market Research & Data+ Quarterly Middle Market Indicator+ Breakthrough research and insights on diverse topics including
globalization, innovation, talent management and operational excellence+ Interactive benchmarking tools to help middle market executives compare
company performance, supply chain resiliency and CEO compensation
+Expertise & Outreach+ Experts travel nationwide to share relevant research with middle market
companies, policymakers, media and academics
+Executive Training+ Executive seminars focused on solving real-world challenges + Informative webinars to build capabilities and facilitate best practices
THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE MARKET
†
2
Learn more about the NCMM at www.middlemarketcenter.org
THE MIGHTY MIDDLE MARKETD E F I N E D
ANNUAL REVENUE
$10MM – $1B
Business Services
26.7%
Manufacturing
16.7%
Wholesale
13.0%
Retail
12.0%
* Source: Market that Moves America Source: Last Available Census
NEARLY
200KBUSINESSES†
†
3
1/3PRIVATE SECTORU.S. JOBS*
OFALL
REPRESENTING
3%U.S. COMPANIES†
OFALL
Quarterly Middle Market Indicator
A quarterly business performance update and economic outlook survey conducted among 1000 c-suite executives of companies with annual revenues between $10MM and $1B.
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETE X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
6
• REVENUE GROWTH IS STABLE AND PREDICTED TO SURGE • COMPANIES MAINTAIN PACE OF HIRING
• CONFIDENCE, ALREADY HIGH, HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
• CAPITAL INVESTMENT PLANS REMAIN THE SAME
• CONCERNS ABOUT THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETQ 2 S N A P S H O T
REVENUE GROWTH
6.6%PAST 12 MONTHS
CAPITAL INVESTMENTEMPLOYMENT GROWTH
3.2%PAST 12 MONTHS
63%WILL INVEST
3.3%NEXT 12 MONTHS
3.4%S&P 500PAST 12 MO.
2.1%SMALLBUSINESS
2.6%LARGEBUSINESS
CONFIDENCE
55%GLOBAL ECONOMY
2Q’13 48%
68%NATIONAL ECONOMY
2Q’13 64%
77%LOCAL ECONOMY
2Q’13 79%
5.8%NEXT 12 MONTHS
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
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THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETC O N F I D E N T / S O M E W H AT C O N F I D E N T
55%GLOBAL ECONOMY
68%NATIONAL ECONOMY
77%LOCAL ECONOMY
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
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1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Global Economy National Economy Local Economy
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K : W I L L G R O W
46%GLOBAL ECONOMY
62%NATIONAL ECONOMY
63%LOCAL ECONOMY
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
9
1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Global Economy National Economy Local Economy
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETR E V E N U E G R O W T H : PA S T 1 2 M O N T H S
6.6%$10M - $1B
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
10
1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
6.9%6.1%
5.5%
7%
5.8% 5.8% 5.5%5%
6.5% 6.6%
7.9%
6.6%
0.8% 1.1%
5.6%
1.3%
3.4%3.9%
0.5%
3.4%
PAST 12 MONTHSREVENUE GROWTHPAST 12 MONTHS
3.4%S&P 500
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETR E V E N U E G R O W T H : N E X T 1 2 M O N T H S
5.8%$10M - $1B
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
11
1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5.2%4.8%
3.7%
5.2%4.9% 5.1%
4.4% 4.3% 4.5%
5.8%
NEXT 12 MONTHSREVENUE GROWTHNEXT 12 MONTHS
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETE M P L O Y M E N T G R O W T H : PA S T 1 2 M O N T H S
3.2%$10M - $1B
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
12
1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1.5%
2%
2.2%
2.7%
2.2%
2.6% 2.8%2.5%
3.7%3.2%
1.7%
2.4%
3.4%
2.1%
2.3%
2.2%2.4%
2.3%
2.6%
2.6%1.9% 2.3%
1.2% 1.2%
1.5% 1.6%1.8%
2% 2.1%2.1%
PAST 12 MONTHSEMPLOYMENT GROWTHPAST 12 MONTHS
2.1%SMALLBUSINESS
2.6%LARGEBUSINESS
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETE M P L O Y M E N T G R O W T H : N E X T 1 2 M O N T H S
3.3%$10M - $1B
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
13
1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '140
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1.8%
1.3%
2.3%2.1%
2.5%
2.1% 2.2%
3.2% 3.3%
NEXT 12 MONTHSEMPLOYMENT GROWTHNEXT 12 MONTHS
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETI N V E S T M E N T A L L O C AT I O N
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
14
63%WILL INVEST
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
4Q 2012 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 20140%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
41%37% 36% 39% 36% 36% 37%
59% 63% 64% 61% 64% 64% 63%
ACTIONS LIKELY WITH AN ADDITIONAL DOLLAR
Hold Cash Invest It
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETI N V E S T M E N T A L L O C AT I O N
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
15
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CapEx - Plant/Equip. Financial Investments Acquistions IT Training CapEx - Facilities Add Personnel
Other
THE U.S. MIDDLE MARKETT O P 5 B U S I N E S S C H A L L E N G E S
Source: 2Q 2014 Middle Market Indicator
16
COST OF HEALTHCARE
COST OF DOING BUSINESS
87%
82%
82%
ABILITY TO MAINTAIN MARGINS
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES WILL IMPACT BUSINESS
77%
ABILITY TO ATTRACT, TRAIN, AND RETAIN TALENT
77%
1Q 2014: 86% 2Q 2013: 91%
1Q 2014: 81% 2Q 2013: 85%
1Q 2014: 83% 2Q 2013: 84%
1Q 2014: 86% 2Q 2013: 83%
1Q 2014: 75% 2Q 2013: 78%