this week’s closes will determine if new highs are possible
DESCRIPTION
The Nasdaq ended last week just above its five-week MMA at 4368 with overbought 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics. To confirm a market top this average must end this week below 4356 with the stochastic reading below 80.00. This reading closed Friday at 84.60.TRANSCRIPT
Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL. ValuEngine covers over 8,000 stocks every day. A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks, and commentary can be found http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click
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August 11, 2014 – This week’s closes will determine if new highs are possible. Four of the five major equity averages ended last week below their five-week modified moving averages at 16762 Dow Industrials, 1946.1 S&P 500, 8174 Dow Transports and 1146.72 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq ended last week just above its five-week MMA at 4368 with overbought 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics. To confirm a market top this average must end this week below 4356 with the stochastic reading below 80.00. This reading closed Friday at 84.60. Dow Industrials, the S&P500, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 ended last week with declining stochastics. The Nasdaq is thus the key to confirming significant market highs this week. Check out this post on www.TheStreet.com - Stocks Face 'Black Hole' Bear Market Risk on Nasdaq's Sell Signal. Monthly and weekly risky levels are below the July highs for the major averages at 16871 and 16885 Dow Industrials, 1970.2 and 1979.8 S&P 500, 4450 and 4499 Nasdaq, 8292 and 8412 Dow Transports, and 1156.01 and 1152.85 Russell 2000. The all-time or multiyear intraday highs and the dates set are 17151.56 (July 17) Dow Industrials, 1991.39 (July 24) S&P 500 (7/24), 4485.93 (July 3) Nasdaq, 8515.04 (July 23) Dow Transports, and 1213.55 (July 1) Russell 2000). Semiannual and annual value levels remain at 16301, 14835 and 13437 Dow Industrials, 1789.3, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3972, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 7423, 6249 and 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 Russell 2000. There’s a semiannual pivot at 1139.81 on the Russell 2000. Quarterly and semiannual risky levels remain at 17753 and 18522 Dow Industrials, 2052.3 and 2080.3 S&P 500, 4569 and 4642 Nasdaq, 8256 and 8447 Dow Transports and 1293.11 and 1285.37 on the Russell 2000. Transports set its high above these levels, but is back below them, Dow Industrials: (16554) Semiannual, daily and annual value levels are 16310, 16167, 14835 and 13467 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 16885 and 16871, the July 17 all-time intraday high at 17151.56, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 17753 and 18552.
S&P 500 – (1931.6) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 1891.8, 1789.3, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 1979..8 and 1970.2, the July 24 all-time intraday high at 1991.39, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2052.3 and 2080.3.
NASDAQ – (4371) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 4303, 3972, 3471 and 3063 with
weekly and monthly risky levels at 4499 and 4450, the July 3 multiyear intraday high at 4485.93 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 4569 and 4642.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (3888) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 3828, 3515, 3078 and 2669 with a quarterly pivot at 3894, a monthly risky level at 3925, the July 24 multiyear intraday high at 3997.50, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 4010 and 4105.
Dow Transports – (8092) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 7990, 7423, 6249 and 5935 with weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 8412, 8292, 8256 and 8447 and the July 23 all-time intraday high at 8515.04.
Russell 2000 – (1131.35) Daily and annual value levels are 1110.78, 966.72 and 879.39 with a semiannual pivot at 1139.81, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1152.85 and 1156.01, the July 1 all-time intraday high at 1213.55, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1285.37 and 1293.11.
The SOX – (606.3) Daily and annual value levels are 602.25, 512.94, 371.58 and 337.74 with semiannual, weekly and quarterly pivots at 608.02, 626.16 and 626.96, the July 16 multiyear intraday high 652.28 and monthly risky level at 654.50.
Dow Utilities: (542.69) Semiannual, daily and annual value levels are 523.72, 517.64 and 497.53, with quarterly and annual pivots at 536.44 and 548.70, weekly and monthly risky levels at 567.26 and 579.73, the June 30 all-time intraday high at 576.98 and semiannual risky level at 612.49. 10-Year Note – (2.422) Daily, monthly, quarterly value levels are 2.502, 2.545 and 3.048 with a weekly pivot at 2.420 and annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.263, 1.999 and 1.779.
30-Year Bond – (3.234) Daily and quarterly value levels are 3.322 and 3.971 with annual and weekly pivots at 3.283 and 3.235, and monthly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 3.178, 3.107 and 3.082.
Comex Gold – ($1313.2) Daily and quarterly value levels are $1300.6 and $1234.6 with a monthly pivot at $1304.3 and weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $1352.3, $1613.0, $1738.7, $1747.4 and $1818.8.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($97.61) Weekly and daily value levels are $96.45 and $94.80 with semiannual, annual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $106.48, $107.52 and $107.70.
The Euro – (1.3411) My semiannual value level is 1.2203 with daily and annual pivots at 1.3383 and 1.3382 and weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1.3498, 1.3703 and 1.4079.
The Dollar versus Japanese Yen – (102.05) An annual value level is 93.38 with weekly, monthly and daily pivots at 101.75, 102.76 and 102.69, and a quarterly risky level at 112.83.
The British Pound – (1.6777) My annual value level is 1.6262 with a quarterly pivot at 1.6874 and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.6981, 1.7177 and 1.7302. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at [email protected].