this week’s energy market news · weekly update this week’s energy market news ... ma of...
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Friday, September 25, 2020x
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This Week’s Energy Market NewsThis Week’s Energy Market NewsMarket Comments: Energies are trading mixed this morning.
U.S. oil refiners are starting to make progress towards eliminating excess stocks of fuel oil and jet kerosene by restraining crude processing and switching equipment to maximize gasoline production. Last week, refiners produced 1.77 times as much gasoline as distillate fuel oil and jet fuel combined, one of the highest gasoline ratios for a quarter of a century. Gasoline-distillate ratios have only reached similar levels a few times, including 2010, 2005, and 1998, when distillate stocks were also far above normal. Refiners have trimmed total crude processing to reduce the production and supply of all fuels (in effect cutting everything to bring distillate stocks under control).
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
RBOB Daily ChartThe four-week average of gasolinedemand showed 8.5 million bpd, down 9% vs this time last year. Gasolineproduction fell by 12,000 bpd from last week to 9.1 million bpd. This was below last year’s production level by 792,000 bpd. RBOB futures are now trading between the 20 day and the 200 day moving averages of $1.1810 and $1.2058 respectively. Look for added resistance at the 50-day MA of $1.2289 and strong support at the 62% retracement value of $1.1174.
Market Opinion: Oil futures are trading flat once again this morning on fears of increased cases of global coronavirus cases, contributing to increased supply and unbalanced demand. The idea of more oil supply from Iran and Libya is also adding bearish sentiment, raising concerns of further increases in global oil supply.
Energy Highlights
Oil, Gasoline and Heating Oil PricesHeating Oil and RBOB prices generally track along with WTI crude prices, however many influences can affect this correlation such as seasonal factors, changes in supply or demand, refinery outages, pipeline issues, and the most recent notable factor, COVID-19. The EIA has forecast that WTI oil prices will average around $39/b in Q4 2020, and $41/b in Q1 2021. Brent oil is expected to average $43/b in the Q4 of 2020 and $50/b in 2021.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
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Energy Highlights
EIA Report:US Energy inventory data was released yesterday. The results of which saw draws acrossthe board -- crude at 1.639M bbls, distillates down 3.363M bbls, and gasoline lead the way down with a4.025M bbls draw. The data shows a conflict with API numbers released earlier in the week.
Heating Oil Daily Chart Heating oil continues to trade right with the 10-day MA. After last week’s distillate stockpile build, and the reports that demand continues to weaken especially for aviation and road transport fuel, heating oil futures remain flat.The first support level will look toward $1.10 with the second level at $1.0605. First level of resistance is the 20-day MA of $1.1532 and the second level comes in at $1.20.
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
x
Page 4
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
xFarmward Energy
Weekly Update
x
Page 5
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not ac-cept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
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Farmward Energy
Weekly Update
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
For any inquiries, please contact: Morgan Office...............................507.249.3196
Pat MachtEnergy Manager
Office: 507.249.3196Cell: 507.430.2233
Curty MeyersEnergy Sales Specialist
Office: 320.826.2214Cell: 507.430.1884
Travis WendtEnergy Sales Specialist
Office: 507.723.7350Cell: 507.227.7119
Brooks TorkeEnergy Sales Specialist
Office: 507.485.3153Cell: 507.616.6958
As of 07/08/20 Price 1000 Gal 1500 Gal 2000 GalRuby FM $1.649 $1.639 $1.629 $1.619#2 Clear $2.139 $2.129 $2.119 $2.109
PricePropane Ag/Comm $.99 SummerfillPropane Home Heat $.99 Summerfill