What is next for Belarus: working together on implementation of the

Paris Climate Agreement

Under the frame of the Fifth Meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Task Force on

Climate Change

Clima East project introduction and provision of recommendations and

examples for Roadmap development.

Zsolt Lengyel, Team Leader & Key Expert29 November 2016, Minsk, Belarus

This project is funded by

the European Union

Content of presentation1. Brief introduction of Clima East

2. Economic, energy and climate perspective of the Paris Agreement

3. Paris Agreement in Belarus: opportunities and challenges

4. How to make Belarus a climate champion?

=> Revisions and Roadmap(s) for NDC implementation

Clima East Policy Project overview• Duration: October 2012 – April 2017 Budget EUR 8.2 million

• Works in: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and the Russian Federation*

• Overall Objective: To support partner countries so that they are better equipped for greenhouse-gas emission reductions and better prepared to deal with climate change impacts.

• Specific objectives are to foster improved climate change policies, strategies and market mechanisms more in line with the EU acquis in the partner countries, by supporting regional cooperation and improving access to information regarding EU climate change policies/acquis.

• Clima East package also includes a Pilots Project (budget EUR 11 million), supporting the development of ecosystems-based approaches to climate change.

*As from 1 January 2015 Russia only participates in applicable regional activities

Results FrameworkClima East Results Framework

Result 1 Enhanced

Dialogue and Association

Agreement implementation

Result 2 Improved national

climate change policies and

strategies.

Result 3 Improved use of

climate modelling and

increased national capacity

for modelling and

assessment

Result 4 Improved MRV

systems

Selected results to dateResult 1 Enhanced Dialogue and Association

Agreement implementation

EU expertise and approaches showcased in

sectoral support to PCs (Partner Countries)

Promotion of intensive dialogue between PCs

and EU in preparation for Paris COP, and on

OP

Technical Assistance provided on

approximation to selected Directives required

under Association Agreements with the 3

relevant PCs

Analysis of INDC and Association Agreement

compatibility for each of 3 PCs

Result 2 Improved national climate change

policies and strategies.

Direct expert support provided on development

of national policy or strategy documents

Improved understanding of key issues for

participation in UNFCCC negotiations

Contribution to timely and compliant submission

of INDCs by all ENP Partner Countries, and to

specific improvements in ambition and

compatibility with other international

agreements

Facilitation of climate mainstreaming, working

directly with sectoral ministries/agencies

Support for civil society engagement

Selected results to dateResult 3 Improved use of climate modelling

and increased national capacity for modelling

and assessment

Sectoral emission data analysis and

mitigation scenario development for INDCs

with capacity building through combined

international and national teams in 4 PCs

PC specialists trained on LEAP system for

emissions modelling

Support in selecting and installing

appropriate vulnerability assessment

modelling systems , and training specialists

on their use in Azerbaijan, Georgia and

Armenia

Result 4 Improved MRV systems

Orientation of Eastern Partnership

specialists on (ETS compliant) EU

approaches to Monitoring, Reporting and

Verification provided through Study Tours,

workshops and materials

Tailored technical assistance responding to

each PC’s requirements, for example:

>Improving Large Emitter MRV (Belarus)

>Capacity Building for parliamentarians on

AA MRV requirements (Ukraine)

>Roadmap for ETS Directive (Moldova)

Clima East Activity Matrix

Key experts Expert Facility

C1- Paris Agreement implementation and UNFCCC engagement

support

AM, AZ, BY, GE, MD, UA

C2 - Climate Action Mainstreaming -Supporting

National Bodies

AM, AZ, BY, GE, MD, UA

Association Agreement (ETS, Fuel

quality, F-gases)GE,

MD, UA

C3 -MRV (monitoring/measuring –

reporting – verification of GHGs)

AZ, BY, GE, MD, UA

Vulnerability Modelling and Software AZ, BY, GE, MD

C4 - Support for capacity building in GHG modelling and vulnerability assessment

AM, AZ, BY, GE, UA

AM – Armenia MD – MoldovaAZ – Azerbaijan UA – UkraineBY – BelarusGE – Georgia

(I)NDC formulation and implementation

support AM, AZ, BY, GE,

MD, UA

LULUCF Inventory Review and

ImprovementAZ, UA

Climate governanceUA

National Adaptation Planning for agriculture

sectorAM, , AZ, BY, GE, UA

C5 -Association Agreement

implementation support

GE, MD, UA

X11-Donor Co-ordination & signposting

X4-Expert Facility

Management

X5-Partner Country

Beneficiary & Stakeholder Engagement

X2-3 Website

&Helpdesk

X6-Lessons learned &

Results Dissemination

X7-Monitoring &

Evaluation

X8-Reporting to EC & Steering

Committee

X9-Clima East Review

Conferences

X1-Programme Development & Planning

Shared interest core (C)

Cross-cutting (X)

Expert Facility activity (EF)

Other Expert Facility ProjectsAM, AZ, BY, GE,

MD, UA

Economic, energy and climate perspective

Three simultaneous challenges with the potential damages from climate change intensifying as the world gets warmer:

Figure 2 "Comparison of global emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the implementation of the INDCs and under other scenarios"; Updated synthesis report on the aggregate effect of INDCs - published 2 May 2016

Economic, energy and climate perspective of (I)NDCs

So how are we doing against 2°C target?

2000-2014

2015

2016

1,3

40

GtC

O2

20

-25

yea

rs

21

stcentu

ry C

O2

“budget”

for

2°C

We should be significantly reducing emissions by 2030. The later the action, the

less the likelihood of holding to 2 C and the more costly to achieve it.

Economic, energy and climate perspective

Source: IEA Energy Atlas; http://energyatlas.iea.org

Economic, energy and climate perspective

• 2°C target will be out of reach quickly, with severe consequences

• Infrastructure and other investments lock in capital, technology and emission patterns for decades

• Paris Agreement recognises both the risks and opportunities that lie in low-carbon climate-resilient growth

• Time is right for action: rapid technological change (energy production/use, digital, materials, biotech, construction) and opportunities to shape new infrastructure

• Lesson from Clima East is that EaP cooperation can provide key support to action: sharing best practices to support adoption of sustainable low emission development strategies

Economic, energy and climate perspective • Sustainable economic growth, improved energy security and increased resilience

allows framing the necessary low carbon growth as an economic and investment subject instead of an environmental or climate topic

• Subsequent mainstreaming of climate action – to areas with mitigation potential and vulnerability to climate change – could deliver the necessary transformative change

• at minimally higher costs than following business a usual routes or of inaction

Infrastructure spending needed for

a 2C scenario (2015-2030, percentage change)

Global goals / efforts

Global limit of

temperature well below 2° (Art. 2)Long-term

goal on mitigation (Art. 4.1)Global goal

on adaptation(Art. 7.1)Mobilizing climate

finance (Art. 9.3)Context of

sustainable developmen

t

Individual efforts

Mitigation

Adaptation

Cooperation

Capacity-building

Policy coordinat

ionMobilization of

supportResponse

measures

Etc.

Transparency framework

To enhance transparency of action &

support, implementat

ion and compliance.

Existingtools

(BUR/BR, NCs,

inventoriesetc.) will

continue to play a veryimportant

roleRegistry (registries?) of

NDC

Global stocktake

To assess progress against the

purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term

goals

First global stock-take to take place in 2023, and every 5 years thereafter

The NDC perspective

INDC => NDC

Belarus NDC:

INDC submitted to

UNFCCC on 29/09

Unconditional

target at 60% of

1990

(equalling to a

maximum of 50%

increase over the

2005-12 relatively

stable emission

levels)

Examples of (I)NDC implementation and revisions

• Indonesia (peatland and forest fires of 2015) • Ukraine (loss of access to resources, industrial capacity and

territorial control)• Ghana (various factors)• Moldova (compliance with international obligations) • ..other ongoing revisions…addressing transport, ecosystem

based approaches, LULUCF etc.

=> Belarus may also benefit from a revision/amendment of its INDC in areas such as LULUCF/biomass use/ecosystem approach esp. on wetlands/peatlands as it becomes NDC as this could attract interest for cooperation and increase credibility

Conclusions and the NDC path ahead

• Paris Agreement is a vehicle for transformative change, forrapid decarbonization, resilient, low-carbon growth as definedby the country – driven NDCs therefore domestic “politicalwill” is critical to making the radical changes necessary.

• Urgent efforts for economy-wide implementation of NDCs areneeded (e.g. impact assessments, legislative proposals,investment programmes)

• Success will depend on understanding of great attractions and opportunities offered by the alternative paths as well as of the great risks from climate change

Conclusions and the NDC path ahead• Detailed implementation plans for NDCs are needed with

comprehensiveness and/or sectoral focus including potential revision :

• => review existing plans and change course of action towards a low carbon, resilient sustainable path of growth with an adaptation-mitigation balance in key/all sectors

• => design an all encompassing, National Development Plan like instrument?

• => frame the discussion around SDGs?

• => combine all of the above to suit country specific needs and planning structures / cycles?

=> Belarus LEDS and Action Plan on Paris Agreement

How to contact The project team can be contacted at personal e-mail addresses [ zsolt.lengyel@climaeast.eu ] and:

info@climaeast.euClima East Office, c/o Milieu Ltd

Chaussée de Charleroi No. 112, First Floor1060 Brussels (Belgium)Tel: +32 2506 1000

Website:English: www.climaeast.eu - Russian: http://russian.climaeast.eu/

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