third way memo - pro-marriage legislators win elections

7/29/2019 Third Way Memo - Pro-Marriage Legislators Win Elections

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Pro-Marriage Legislators Win Elections

The politics of marriage for gay couples are changing rapidly, and evidence from

the most recent election shows that it is not politically perilous for state legislators to

vote in favor of laws allowing committed gay and lesbian couples to marry. Since the

2010 election, both chambers of the state legislatures in New York (June 2011),

Washington (February 2012), New Jersey (February 2012), and Maryland (March 2012)

have passed laws allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Since those votes, the

legislatures of New York and Washington faced reelection in the 2012 elections. In

those two states, a total of 196 legislators voted in favor of marriage: 113 in New York

and 83 in Washington. Of the 196 legislators who voted to support marriage for

committed gay and lesbian couples, only 5 lost their seats in the 2012 election: 4 in

New York and 1 in Washington. And only in 3 of those elections is there even a remote

possibility that a legislators marriage vote contributed to their loss.

Ninety-seven percent of state legislators who voted for marriage and

ran for reelection won.

A staggering 97% of the state legislators from both parties who voted to allow gay

couples to marry in their state and ran for reelection in 2012 won their races: 141

legislators were reelected, 50 did not run (either because they were not up for

reelection in 2012, or because they retired, resigned, or ran for another public office),

and only 5 lost their races. Of those 5 who lost, 2 were under investigation for

corruption or misuse of taxpayer dollars, and 3 ran for reelection and lost without

being under a cloud of ethics. In these 3 caseswhich represent only 2% of theseracesthere were multiple factors contributing to the losses. This 97% reelection rate

was significantly higher than the national averageacross the country in 2012, 10% of

incumbent state legislators who filed for reelection were defeated.12012 Electoral Outcomes for Pro-Marriage Legislators

Democrats Republicans Total

Did not run for reelection* 43 750

(25.5%)

Ran and won 136 4

140 (+1 Ind.) = 141

(71.9%)

Ran and lost while being

investigated forcorruption charges

2 02

(1%)

Ran and lost without anethics cloud

1 23

(1.5%)

*Includes 14 who were not up in 2012


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While for Republicans, a vote in support of marriage may still come up in a primary,

the evidence shows that it is not determinative to their electoral prospectsin fact,

only two of the 13 Republicans who supported marriage lost their seat in a way that

could even be partly attributed to their marriage vote. And for Democrats, a vote for

marriage appears unlikely to have any negative effect at all, as only 1 out of 139

Democratic lawmakers who voted for marriage and was not under investigation was

defeatedless than a 1% rate of loss.

Even for Democrats in moderate districts, marriage does not appear to hurt state

legislators chances of reelection. For example, New York State Senator Joseph

Addabbo represents a particularly moderate district in Queens that had become even

more conservative since his last election, when it was redistricted to include much of

the Rockaway Peninsula.2 And yet he won reelection in 2012 after voting for marriage

just one year earlier. Only one Democrat who voted for marriage and was not under

investigation lost her seat in 2012, and still her conservative-leaning district voted for

marriage in the state-wide referendum on the issue.

The losses had many factors, and in most, marriage wasnt evenamong them.

Marriage Not a Factor for Two New York Democratic Losses

The two Democratic legislators (Naomi Rivera and Shirley Huntley) who lost their

seats in New York were under investigation for corruption or misuse of taxpayer

dollarsmaking those troubles the likely cause of their losses, not their vote on

marriage.

Marriage Not a Likely Cause of Washington Democratic Loss

Washington State Senator Mary Margaret Haugen (D) lost her seat in the generalelection, but on that same day her district voted in favorof marriage in the state-wide

referendum, making it unlikely that her vote was the cause of her defeat.

Marriage Not a Major Factor in New York Republican General Election Loss

New York State Senator Stephan Saland won his primary against a Republican

challenger who accused him of betraying traditional family values. He later lost to a

Democrat in the general election. While it is plausible that marriage played a small part

in Salands general election loss, it was clearly not the main reason for it, since the

Democrat who defeated him supported marriage for gay couples as well.

Marriage Not the Only Factor in New York Republican Primary Loss

Of the four Republican Senators and three Assemblymen who voted for marriage

in New York, State Senator Roy McDonald was the only one to lose his seat in a

primary challenge. He was also the only one to raise less money than his opponent.

Even so, the vote was so close that it could not be called on Election Day and came

down to the counting of absentee ballots.


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The vast majority of Americans wouldnt punish a policymaker for

supporting marriage.

Most Americans consistently say that a lawmakers position on marriage would not

affect whether they vote for that person. For example, in a 2011 national poll by GroveInsight for Third Way, a plurality (45%) said that a candidates view on marriage for gay

couples would make no difference in their vote.3 An immediate post-election poll in

Washington State in November 2012 echoed that conclusion: 44% said that President

Obamas marriage support had no effect on their vote, and the numbers were similar

for state legislators40% said the issue made no difference.4

But when the sample was narrowed to moderate voterswho nearly always

decide electionsthe numbers looked even better for marriage. A full 30% of

moderates said they were more likely to vote for the President because he supported

marriage for gay couples, while only 12% said that issue made them less likely to pull

the lever to reelect him. Fifty-eight percent of moderates said it made no difference.

These numbers were nearly identical for state legislators. A full 30% of moderate

voters said they were more prone to vote for a state legislator who supportedmarriage, while only 14% said they were less prone to do so, and 56% said the issue

made no difference in their vote.

Conclusion

The politics of marriage for gay couples is changing rapidly, and support for

marriage is growing every day. For example, between 2004 and 2011, support

increased 16 points, with big shifts across every demographic group and region of the

country.5 In fact, during that time period, moderates shifted faster than any other

groupgaining 21 points in support for marriageand the number of conservatives

who supported marriage doubled over that timeframe. While a quarter of this shift hascome from younger people who are more accepting aging into the population, 75% of

the movement is due to Americans changing their minds on the issue and deciding to

support the freedom to marry.6

Today, Americans in 9 states and the District of Columbia have the ability to marry

the person they love, and many were granted that freedom by their state legislatures

or by a direct vote of the people. Supporting marriage for gay couples should no

longer be considered a political risk for Democratseven those in moderate districts.

In fact, all but 1 of the 139 Democrats who ran without being under an ethics

investigation won re-election. For Republicans, the issue may still play a small role in

primary campaigns, but at least85% of Republican legislators who voted for marriagesince the 2010 election did not lose their seat because of it. By the 2014 election, we

expect marriage votes to have an even more negligible effect than they had in 2012.


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APPENDIX: Election Results for Pro-Marriage Legislators

New York Senate Party Status

Adams Democrat Reelected

Addabbo Democrat Reelected

Avella Democrat Reelected

Breslin Democrat Reelected

Carlucci Democrat Reelected

Dilan Democrat Reelected

Duane Democrat Retired

Espaillat Democrat Reelected

Gianaris Democrat Reelected

Hassell-Thompson Democrat Reelected

Huntley Democrat Lost

Kennedy Democrat Reelected

Klein Democrat Reelected

Krueger Democrat Reelected

Kruger Democrat Resigned

Montgomery Democrat Reelected

Oppenheimer Democrat Retired

Parker Democrat Reelected

Peralta Democrat Reelected

Perkins Democrat Reelected

Rivera Democrat Reelected

Sampson Democrat Reelected

Savino Democrat Reelected

Serrano Democrat Reelected

Smith Democrat Reelected

Squadron Democrat Reelected

Stavisky Democrat Reelected

Valesky Democrat Reelected

Stewart-Cousins Democrat Reelected

Alesi Republican Retired

Saland Republican Lost

McDonald Republican Lost

Grisanti Republican Reelected


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New York Assembly Party Status

Abinanti Democrat Reelected

Arroyo Democrat Reelected

Aubry Democrat Reelected

Benedetto Democrat ReelectedBing Democrat Resigned

Boyland Democrat Reelected

Braunstein Democrat Reelected

Brennan Democrat Reelected

Bronson Democrat Reelected

Brook-Krasny Democrat Reelected

Cahill Democrat Reelected

Camara Democrat Reelected

Canestrari Democrat Retired

Castro Democrat Reelected

Cook Democrat Reelected

Cusick Democrat Reelected

DenDekker Democrat Reelected

Dinowitz Democrat Reelected

Englebright Democrat Reelected

Farrell Democrat Reelected

Galef Democrat Reelected

Glick Democrat Reelected

Gottfried Democrat Reelected

Gunther Democrat Reelected

Heastie Democrat Reelected

Hevesi Democrat Reelected

Hoyt Democrat Resigned

Jacobs Democrat Reelected

Jaffee Democrat Reelected

Jeffries Democrat Retired

Kavanagh Democrat Reelected

Kellner Democrat Reelected

Lancman Democrat Retired

Latimer Democrat Retired


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Lavine Democrat Reelected

Lentol Democrat Reelected

Lifton Democrat Reelected

Linares Democrat Retired

Lopez, VJ Democrat ReelectedLupardo Democrat Reelected

Magnarelli Democrat Reelected

Maisel Democrat Reelected

McEneny Democrat Retired

Meng Democrat Retired

Millman Democrat Reelected

Morelle Democrat Reelected

Moya Democrat Reelected

Nolan Democrat Reelected

O'Donnell Democrat Reelected

Ortiz Democrat Reelected

Paulin Democrat Reelected

Peoples-Stokes Democrat Reelected

Perry Democrat Reelected

Pretlow Democrat Reelected

Ramos Democrat Reelected

Reilly Democrat Retired

Rivera, Jose Democrat Reelected

Rivera, Naomi Democrat Lost

Rivera, Peter Democrat Resigned

Roberts Democrat Reelected

Rodriguez Democrat Reelected

Rosenthal Democrat Reelected

Russell Democrat Reelected

Schimel Democrat Reelected

Schroeder Democrat Resigned

Simotas Democrat Reelected

Spano Democrat Resigned

Sweeney Democrat Reelected

Titone Democrat Reelected


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Titus Democrat Reelected

Weinstein Democrat Reelected

Weisenberg Democrat Reelected

Weprin Democrat Reelected

Wright Democrat ReelectedZebrowski Democrat Reelected

Silver Democrat Reelected

Sayward Republican Resigned

Miller, Joel Republican Resigned

Duprey Republican Reelected

Thiele Independent Reelected

Washington Senate Party Status

Brown Democrat Not up in 2012

Chase Democrat Not up in 2012

Conway Democrat Not up in 2012

Eide Democrat Not up in 2012

Fraser Democrat Reelected

Frockt Democrat Reelected

Harper Democrat Not up in 2012

Hatfield Democrat Reelected

Haugen Democrat Lost

Hobbs Democrat Not up in 2012

Kastama Democrat Retired

Keiser Democrat Not up in 2012

Kilmer Democrat Retired

Kline Democrat Not up in 2012

Kohl-Welles Democrat Not up in 2012

McAuliffe Democrat Reelected

Murray Democrat Not up in 2012

Nelson Democrat Not up in 2012

Prentice Democrat Retired

Pridemore Democrat Retired

Ranker Democrat Reelected

Regala Democrat Retired

Rolfes Democrat Reelected


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Tom Democrat Not up in 2012

Fain Republican Not up in 2012

Litzow Republican Reelected

Pflug Republican Retired

Hill Republican Not up in 2012Washington House Party Status

Appleton Democrat Reelected

Billig Democrat Retired

Blake Democrat Reelected

Carlyle Democrat Reelected

Clibborn Democrat Reelected

Cody Democrat Reelected

Darneille Democrat Retired

Dickerson Democrat Retired

Dunshee Democrat Reelected

Eddy Democrat Retired

Finn Democrat Retired

Fitzgibbon Democrat Relected

Goodman Democrat Relected

Green Democrat Relected

Haigh Democrat Relected

Hansen Democrat Relected

Hasegawa Democrat Retired

Hudgins Democrat Reelected

Hunt Democrat Reelected

Hunter Democrat Reelected

Jinkins Democrat Reelected

Kagi Democrat Reelected

Kelley Democrat Retired

Kenney Democrat Retired

Ladenburg Democrat Retired

Liias Democrat Reelected

Lytton Democrat Reelected

Maxwell Democrat Reelected

McCoy Democrat Reelected


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Moeller Democrat Reelected

Morris Democrat Reelected

Moscoso Democrat Reelected

Ormsby Democrat Reelected

Orwall Democrat ReelectedPedersen Democrat Reelected

Pettigrew Democrat Reelected

Pollet Democrat Reelected

Probst Democrat Retired

Reykdal Democrat Reelected

Roberts Democrat Reelected

Ryu Democrat Reelected

Santos Democrat Reelected

Seaquist Democrat Reelected

Sells Democrat Reelected

Springer Democrat Reelected

Stanford Democrat Reelected

Sullivan Democrat Reelected

Takko Democrat Reelected

Tharinger Democrat Reelected

Upthegrove Democrat Reelected

Van De Wege Democrat Reelected

Wylie Democrat Reelected

Chopp Democrat Reelected

Anderson Republican Retired

Walsh Republican Reelected


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ENDNOTES

1 4783 state legislator incumbents filed for reelection in 2012, and 491 were defeated (197 in primaries

and 294 in the general election). Incumbents defeated in 2012s state legislative elections, Ballotpedia,

December 13, 2012. Accessed February 26, 2012. Available at:

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Incumbents_defeated_in_2012's_state_legislative_elections.

2 Thomas Kaplan, State Senate Races Tighter After The Storm, The New York Times, November 4, 2012.

Accessed February 25, 2013. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/nyregion/new-york-

state-senate-races-tighter-after-storm.html.

3 National poll by Grove Insight for Third Way, July 12-17, 2011, 1000 likely voters.

4 Lanae Erickson Hatalsky and Sarah Trumble, How Marriage Won in Washington State, Report, Third

Way, December 2012, pp. 3-4. Accessed February 25, 2013. Available at:

http://www.thirdway.org/subjects/130/publications/623.

5 Gregory B. Lewis and Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, The Big Shift: Changing Views on Marriage for Gay

Couples, Report, Third Way, October 2012, pp. 1-2. Accessed February 25, 2013. Available at:

http://www.thirdway.org/subjects/11/publications/600.

6

Ibid.

third way memo - pro-marriage legislators win elections

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