Ecotoxicology, 3, 1-3 (1994)

EDITORIAL

Third wave ecotoxicology

JOHN CAIRNS, JR.

University Center for Environmental and Hazardous Materials Studies, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Blacksburg, VA 24061-0415, USA

Received 14 September 1993; accepted 22 October 1993

“There is nothing more vulnerable than entrenched success.” George Romney (quoted in David

Halberstam’s book The Reckoning)

Toffler’s intriguing book The Third Wave (Toffler, 1980) suggests that time is more crucial than in the past because events are accelerated. This acceleration demands faster decisions, instant communication, and instant response in both third wave economics and war. The brief, but intensive, military phase of the Gulf War demonstrated that only an exceptionally high level of coordination could bring together air, ground, and naval forces (in addition to satellite surveillance and computer-driven control systems) to integrate front-line action and behind-the-lines precision strikes. Toffler and Toffler (1991) persuasively argue that third wave war is knowledge-intensive, even for the lowest ranks. Third wave economics and war are knowledge-driven because both have to anticipate the impacts of interdiction.

Toffler and Toffler (1991) also make the point that, in today’s economy, mass production is increasingly outmoded. They note that customized production, based on the economies of intelligent technology, is superseding mass production in many fields.

As I read these two earlier publications and Powershift (Toffler, 1991) about the rapidly developing age of information, speculation about “third wave ecotoxicology” was inevitable. Present ecotoxicological equivalents to mass production in industry are the standardized Ceriodaphnia, fathead minnow, and Scertedesmus toxicity tests. These tests are not mass produced in the assembly line sense, but are in the sense that they are all-purpose tests to be used uniformly in such different ecoregions as Florida and Alaska. The chief advantage of mass production is that it requires a minimum of professional judgement. Customized testing, common in other fields, may also be appropriate in ecotoxicology. An array of test methods could be developed, perhaps standardizing procedures but not test organisms. Some suggested or recommended practices for selecting and utilizing an array of test organisms more suited to the different ecoregions would then become essential, as would the need for federal agencies, such as USEPA, to interpret the results skillfully. This would follow the third wave demassification of output and the breakup of mass markets into ‘niches’.

Perhaps a more critical development in third wave ecotoxicology would be vast and site-specific increases in integrated information bases. This would be associated with an extremely high level of coordination among and between the various federal agencies,

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regional authorities, and the private sector. The Gulf War dramatically illustrated the benefits of integration and coordination of activities and knowledge! Every activity was viewed at the systems level, and the decision had to be congruent with the larger “landscape” aims and goals. In short, no information could be utilized in isolation from other types of information qualitatively quite different. Few of these projections fit ecotoxicology as we know it today; however, if economic, military, and multi-national corporate activities are moving in this direction, it is possible that ecotoxicology can flourish without its procedures becoming congruent with the larger society in which it exists?

Illustrative ways in which coordination between disciplines can increase the speed at which information is transferred and eases the transition to third wave ecotoxicology follow.

(1) Interact with other professional societies with which information coordination would be beneficial. For example, ecotoxicologists can interact with restoration ecolo- gists to develop strategies for ecological healing of hazardous waste storage sites. Joint meetings of professional societies and problem-specific issues of existing journals can facilitate these interactions.

(2) Make the spatial scale of assessments consistent with the spatial scale of the stress. Many toxicants, such as pesticides, ozone, and acid rain are spread over substantial geographical areas (e.g. Hunsaker et al., 1990). Interaction of ecotoxicologists with landscape ecologists, geographers, and regional planners should produce an information base much more suitable for regional decision making. Some of the same technologies useful in the Gulf War also provide the means of obtaining and integrating information needed for third wave ecotoxicology. Satellite imaging and aerial photography can collect relevant ecological information on large scales. Computerized geographical information systems can be used to coordinate disparate sources of information about distributions of resources and pollution (e.g. Westman and Price, 1988; Smith et al., 1992).

(3) Make the temporal scale of assessments consistent with the temporal scale of the stress. Most ecotoxicological studies have inadequate temporal scales. Ecologists have been examining ways of looking at long-term processes (e.g. Likens, 1989; Risser, 1991), while ecotoxicologists, economists, and resource managers have focused on shorter terms. These experiences could facilitate the reorganization of ecotoxicological data bases and the generation of new information so that the temporal scales are more suitable for use by policy and decision makers.

(4) Define optimal ecosystem states as well as damage. Ecotoxicologists have focused primarily on preventing deleterious effects, but there is now a rapidly developing field of ecosystem health in which optimal fitness and condition are the end points of choice rather than mere survival. This follows the trend in human health and much might be learned from the transition in that area.

(5) Integrate human actions into the larger ecological landscape. Ecotoxicologists have paid relatively little attention to economic factors with some notable exceptions, such as waste treatment costs. However, few decisions are made these days on any sizeable scale that do not have a substantive economic component. There is, in fact, a rapidly developing field of ecological economics in which the interconnections between ecosystems and economic systems are examined rather than dismissed as externalities (e.g. Costanza et al., 1991).

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(6) Interact with the larger public. While ecotoxicologists have discussed risk analysis within the profession, the field has not communicated its findings well to the public or used public feedback to direct its choice of end points (e.g. Conn and Rich, 1992). This two-way exchange of information is essential to the process of risk management in which risks of alternate actions are weighed along with other social and economic factors. Interactions with those skilled in risk communication would help the profession of ecotoxicology.

References

Conn, W.D. and Rich, R.C. (1992) Communicating about ecosystem risks. In Predicting Eco- system Risk J. Cairns, Jr., B.R. Niederlehner and D.R. Orvos (eds), pp. 1-8. Princeton: Princeton Scientific Publishing.

Costanza, R., Daly, H.E. and Bartholomew, J.A. (1991) Goals, agenda and policy recommenda- tions for ecological economics. In Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability R. Costanza (ed.), pp. 1-21. New York: Columbia University Press.

Hunsaker, CT., Graham, R.L., Suter, G.W., II, O’Neill, R.V., Barnthouse, L.W. and Gardner, R.H. (1990) Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale. Environ. Manag. 14, 325-32.

Likens, G.E., ed. (1989) Long Term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives. New York: Springer-Verlag.

Risser, P.M., ed. (1991) Long-term Ecological Research: An international Perspective, SCOPE, vol. 41. New York: Wiley.

Smith, J.L., Logan, J.A. and Gregoire, T.G. (1992) Using aerial photography and geographic information systems to develop databases for pesticide evaluations. Photogr. Eng. Remote Sensing 58, 1447-52.

Toffler, A. (1980) The Third Wave. New York: Morrow. Toffler, A. and Toffler, H. (1991) War, wealth, and a new era in history. World Monit. May,

46-52. Toffler, A. (1991) Powershift. New York: Bantam Books. Westman, W.E. and Price, C.V. (1988) Detecting air pollution stress in southern California

vegetation using Landsat thematic mapper band data. Photogr. Eng. Remote Sensing 54, 130.5-11.