thinking on your feet - pocc€¦ · thinking on your feet: recruiting today’s international...
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Thinking On Your Feet:Recruiting Today’s International Student
Aimee Gruber, EMAJack Cummings, St. Johnsbury Academy
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What Is Happening?
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‐ Josh Clark, Hawaii Preparatory Academy
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Enrollment Tripled in a Decade!Between 2005 – 2015:
• International enrollment in all U.S. private schools (primary and secondary combined): 30,929 → 94,766
• Same percentage increase for NAIS members : 13,881 → 31,122
• International students @ NAIS schools represent nearly 1/3 of all F‐1 Visa holders at US private schools
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Day Schools Up Nearly 300%
297% Increase at Day Schools
92% Increase Boarding
78% Increase Boarding‐Day
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China Drives Growth
● 42% of all secondary enrollment from China
● Increased 48% between 2013‐2016
Key Findings: IIE Globally Mobile Youth 2017
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Country 2014 2016
#1 China 23,562 34,197
#2 Korea 8,777 5,642
#3 Germany 7,130 5,600
#4 Mexico 2,659 2,398
#5 Brazil 2,292 1,946
#6 Vietnam 2,289 3,975
#7 Spain 2,125 3,149
#8 Japan 1,959 2,033
#9 Thailand 1,827 1,922
#10 Italy 1,718 2,392
Includes both F‐1 & J‐1 Visa Holders
Sending Countries, US Secondary
Source: IIE Globally Mobile Youth
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Growth Slowing International secondary numbers continue to grow, but at a slower rate:
○ Numbers tripled from 2004‐2016○ Grew 8% between 2013‐2014○ Grew 3% between 2014‐2015○ Grew 1% between 2015‐2016
Key Findings: IIE Globally Mobile Youth 2017
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TABS Application/Yield DataInternational Applicants for 2018‐2019
Fewer/Less than Last
Year
Same as Last Year
More/Better than Last Year
Applications 47.55% 25.87% 26.57%
Yield 43.57% 34.29% 22.14%
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International Test TakersStudent‐Reported Home Address
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SSAT International Top 10Unique Test Takers by Student‐Reported Home Address
Saudi is all ARAMCO & Jordan is all King’s Academy
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SAO Unique ApplicantsApril 13th YOY
Country 2016 2017 2018
China 1,625 1,550 1,441
Korea 179 205 251
Hong Kong 124 135 147
Vietnam 120 136 159
Japan 60 56 62
Saudi Arabia 38 61 62
# Countries 90 102 107
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Increased Competition● More secondary schools enroll international students than
ever before (mostly private).
● 2013 ‐ 2016○ Grew from 2,300 schools in US that enrolled international
students to 2,800
● 30% increase in schools; 8% increase in students
Key Findings: IIE Globally Mobile Youth 2017
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Insuring Against Drop in Chinese Students
● University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign● $424,000 annual premium to insure against drop in Chinese
student enrollment● Triggered if 20% drop in tuition revenue from Chinese students● Insures against “a specific set of identifiable events” (Visa
restrictions, pandemic, trade war)Source: Inside Higher Ed, Nov. 29
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LeBron Lends a Hand
Moody’s has downgraded the credit ratings of universities due to “reduction of international students.”
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Why Is It Happening?
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“If they aren’t born, they can’t come to school.”
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Projected 40% Decrease College‐Age Population in China• China world’s leading outbound market: 30% all international students in
UK, Canada, and Australia as well as non‐English speaking countries (e.g. S. Korea, Taiwan)
• 18‐24 year old population will decrease from 176 million to 105 million between 2010‐2025
• Beginning 2013 average annual growth slowed from 19% to 11 %.
Source: ICEF Monitor
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China – Not Just Exporting Talent!
• In 2012, China announced its intention of being an international education hub. Goal: 500,000 international students by 2020.
• In 2015, at nearly 400,000• Top 5 sending countries more diverse and not as
dependent: S. Korea; US; Thailand; India; Russia. Top 5 + 35% compared with …
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Africa Goes to China• China #2 destination for students from Africa, behind France
• 2015: 26 times number of African students studying in China than in 2003
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Shifting Global MarketsOn the Rise
Decline/Stagnating
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Australia● 14.7% increase in international students from 2016‐2017● 29% of total enrollment international (5% for US)● Represent 19% of total revenue● Pivoting to postgraduate destination
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Canada’s Integrated Strategy“International education is critical to Canada’s success. In a highly competitive, knowledge‐based global economy, ideas and innovation go hand in hand with job creation and economic growth.”
Minister of International Trade, Canada
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Safety a Growing Concern● Gun violence and school shootings
○ Very well publicized internationally○ Top concern cited by consultants○ Be prepared to talk about this with
families!● Perception that U.S. is less welcoming,
particularly for students from Muslim countries and Mexico
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Email from Finnish parent
Dear Jack,
I would be happy to hear more about the college system and possibilities in USA and in Canada. I read news about the police and gun violence in USA all the time and it makes me a bit worried.
Mom of current international student
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Growth of International Schools =In‐Country Options
International Schools● 10,282 International Schools● 5.36 million students● 4 countries have > 500 International Schools:
● China 851■ UAE 656 (Dubai has 296!)■ India 581■ Pakistan 508
○ “Not just for ex‐pats anymore”
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HeadlinesNot exactly making our lives easier...
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Cost is a considerable concern for international students.
44% indicated that cost was the #1 concern
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Strength of US DollarSchool Tuition Tuition in RMB US More Expensive By
American Boarding School $60,000 USD 406,294 CNY
Canadian Boarding School $60,000 CDN 306,797 CNY +$14,699 USD
British Boarding School 40,050 £ 349,566 CNY +$8,380.99 USD
Australian Boarding School 60,000 AUS 290,063 AUS +$17,172 USD
February 15, 2019 Rates
Strength of USD relative to dozens of international currencies is dramatically inflating tuition for families
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Most Expensive in the WorldCountry Cost/Year Country Cost/Year
US public $8,202 US private $21,129
Australia $4,763 Austria $914
Canada $4,939 Denmark $0
Finland $0 Germany $0
Norway $0 Poland $0
Japan $5,229 Korea $4,578
New Zealand $4,295 Switzerland $1,168
OECD Data
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Fall 2018 International Student Enrollment Hot Topics Survey
Multiple causes for decline in new enrollments:
1. Visa delays (83%)2. US social and political climate (60%)3. Choose another country (59%)
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Concerned about Fall 2019● 81% institutions report
elevated concerns about recruiting from Asia
● 80% report concerns about recruiting from China for fall 2019
● China Declines NOW○ 48% declines in new
Chinese students○ Prioritizing outreach,
particularly to China
Source: Fall 2018 Hot Topics Survey
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Institutional Selectivity a Factor
90% + Accepted ‐7%
75‐89.9 % Accepted ‐2.8%
50‐74.9% Accepted ‐1.9%
25‐49.9% Accepted +.7%
10‐24.9% Accepted +3.6%
Less than 10% Accepted +2.5%Source: Fall 2018 Hot Topics Survey
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F‐1 Restrictions for Chinese Grad Students● Chinese students pursuing graduate degrees in certain STEM fields may now
be limited to a one‐year visa rather than the traditional F‐1 visa, which is valid for a student’s entire length of study.
● Does not directly affect K‐12 but international students may choose other countries where it is easier to finish entire education
● Consular policy change, not a formal regulation. Case by case.
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State Department: New Visa Applicant Questions
● State Department proposed new questions for the nonimmigrant visa application. This will affect many visa applicants including international students and staff coming to independent schools on F‐1, J‐1, and H‐1B visas
● Visa applicants will be asked to provide five years’ of social media identifiers (screen names), telephone numbers, email addresses, and international travel
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What Should We Do About It?
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NAFSA
#YouAreWelcomeHere
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US College Bound
● Most international secondary students ultimately seek to enroll in US college or university.
● Opportunity for independent schools!○ Superior college counseling○ Superior college preparation○ Superior metrics in terms of persistence/graduation○ Consider sending college counselor to top international
destinations to meet with current families (brand ambassador)
Key Findings: IIE Globally Mobile Youth 2017
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Higher Ed Prioritizing Outreach to Asia
● Proactive global outreach ‐ focus on Asia● 2/3 of institutions prioritizing efforts in China
○ Too many boarding schools NOT doing this!● Outside of Asia, Brazil a focus for many due to 11.7% growth● Outreach to international students ALREADY IN US a stated
priority ○ This means you!!
Source: Fall 2018 Hot Topics Survey
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Advice for New International Students and Schools
● Schedule visa interview well in advance of school start date.● Prepare students to face additional questioning at visa interview
and upon arrival in the U.S. ● Documentation is key: enhanced personal information; ties to home
country; English proficiency; and finances (ability to pay for education).
● Students must be prepared for potential electronics check upon arrival.
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Food for Thought …● US Independent schools have postponed the day of reckoning
(financially speaking):
○ Time to diversify enrollment & revenue
○ Time to mobilize lobbying efforts for all K‐12 private schools
○ Time to create an integrated national strategy (education, employment, immigration)