thinking like a psychologist… and ethics. roll call essay #2 (missing several) intuitions test ...
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Agenda
Roll call Essay #2 (missing several) Intuitions Test Probability, Chance, and the Popular
Image of Psychology Ethics
What is randomness / chance? When events occur or change as a result
of unpredictable forces or events. Randomness plays a part in almost
every single activity you do. In psychological research and practice,
there are always random factors at work Psychological tests and measurements Treatments / therapies
Therefore, psychologists make probabilistic statements…
The role of probability in psychology
Statements of reality are probabilistic… They are true most of the time▪ Men tend to be taller than women▪ Students who do better on the SATs tend to do
better in college They DO NOT have to be true all of the time
What works for most people most of the time.
When we observe something, we have to determine the probability that the observation was chance
I know a person who…
A single (or even multiple) cases of individuals that seem to go against a known theory does not invalidate the theory. Theories are probabilistic. Smoking and lung cancer Cholesterol and heart attacks Abuse and depression Others?
Chance and Psychology
Humans tend to explain chance events
Illusory Correlation: believing that a relationship exists between 2 variables that co-occur, but a relationship does not exist Looking for signs…
Chance events and oddmatches 5 coins all heads = .03 5 coins, 10o flips, all heads = .96
The Challenged Science
Why psychology is the strong, silent kid who gets beat up all the time.
Psychology’s misrepresentation
Dr. Phil Oprah [Insert Talk Show Host here] Second-class literature
Psychological “literature” Self-help Free your mind Eat fruits and vegetables You are your own best friend How to meet new people and impress
them and make them love you and pay you $$ with psychological techniques
The REAL psychological literature is usually in the science section
The Paranormal
ESP Not a fruitful area of research Studied for a long time (since start of
psychology) 90 years of controlled studies▪ Zero (0) have provided replicable evidence of
ESP under controlled conditions.
The Basics
Psychology focuses on the reasons for X and Y to happen together (i.e., the causes) – i.e., Basic Research Why you forget where you put your keys Why friendly people are more successful Why watching sexy TV causes teenage
pregnancy (j/k) This investigatory process is far less
sexy than: Win friends and become a CEO
NO-bel There is no Nobel Prize in psychology Resistance to scientific psychology
Anything goes? Not in psychology Your beliefs about human behavior are
testable and falsifiable by empirical means!! Psychology is seen as so pervasive, it’s
nowhere. What is a psychologist?
Every person? Or something more?
Judging PsuedoScience “A tendency to invoke ad hoc hypotheses
as a means of immunizing claims from falsification.
An emphasis on confirmation rather than refutation.
A tendency to place the burden of proof on skeptics, not proponents, of claims.
Excessive reliance on anecdotal and testimonial evidence…
Evasion of peer review… Failure to build on existing scientific
knowledge.” (p. 200/203)
Summary Exercise
Empirical problems, many areas
Falsifiable theories Definitions are
operational Systematic and
public empiricism Peer review Control and
manipulation
Multiple methods, multiple strengths, multiple weaknesses
Aggregation of data / observations conclusions
Probabilistic statements about reality