ADUNOLA ABIOLAFounder & CEO Think Security Africa

Introduction

THINK SECURITY AFRICA

Since Think Security Africa started in 2009, it has becomea leader in political and strategic risk identi�cation andmanagement for Africa.

It has grown from being a simple but important idea,to being a repository of continent-wide foresight, criticalto the formulation of improved security policy for Africa.

Extensive �eld experience across several countries, is acritical component of our ability to consistently stayahead of the most important security-related developments in Africa.

Think Security Africa 2015 Annual Report

FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL

Since Think Security Africa (TSA) was established, it has risen to the formidabletask of making a tangible contribution to badly needed debate on security developments in Africa, whilst being in a small �eld already saturated by experienced players. Starting a new orgnaisation was not a decision that I took lightly, in view of the challenges involved. However, the fact that TSA is an independent organisation has given us the freedom to develop new and critical methods and specialisations.

TSA is now the global leader in foreasting security trends in Africa and strategicplanning, this is something that adds value to calculations made by a relatively small group of national, regional, and global policymakers, as well as investors.

Our annual report is usually an internal exercise to assist us in determining whether or not we are ful�lling ourfounding objectives, and it ultimately helps me to determine whether the results and impact we are having warrants the ongoing existence of TSA. The rationale behind making our annual report public this year is two-fold. Firstly, it isimportant for our website users to understand the import of what they are reading or viewing. Secondly, the willingness of key stakeholders to measure their performance and e�ectiveness is increasingly going to determine security conditionsin Africa (and even beyond), and I would like to be the change that I wish to see.

I would like to thank all the governments, o�cials, groups, institutions, and communities across Africa that have granted TSA the access and interviews needed to undertake research. Especially those that have been open-minded and understanding of the important, impersonal and rising stakes (increasingly transcending national interests)involved in the work that we do. I would also like to thank all advisers, researchers, contributors, graphic and web designers for their important contribution.

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There is a rise in the number of countries impacted by con�ict in Africa. This is occuring alongside a globaleconomic slowdown, which may result in the decline of badly needed investment. This is most worrisome, asmany African governments have articulated plans to become middle-income countries in the next 5 - 20 years.

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46% of Africa’s population is currently living in a country impacted by seriouscon�ict. The number of Africans living in abject poverty is roughly equal to the number of Africans living in violence-hit countries. The issue of con�ict (and other violence) is as much a developmental issue, as it is a security one.

Security in Africa

46%RESPONDING PROACTIVELY

Supporting existing e�orts to inculcate a more proactive response to security management in Africa, is the essence of what we do at ThinkSecurity Africa.

6 107

2012In 2012 there were 6 African countries impacted by con�ict.

2014The number of countries grew further in 2014.

2013This grew by one, to 7 in 2013.

TSA’s Research FocusAt Think Security Africa we specialise in forecasting security-related trends in Africa. In the six years since we startedwe have built a solid track record of doing this e�ectively.

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We have hundreds of resources on the Think Security Africa website in html, pdf, photographic, video, and presentationformat. The vast majority of our resources relate to national issues, and account for 70% of the resources on our website. 20% of the downloadable resources, are related to armed groups operating in Africa. 10% of the resourceson the website relate to either regional security issues or terrorism.

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OUR RESEARCH FOCUS

Our forecasts have a 100% score for both timeliness and relevance. We havea demonstrated record of providing foresight on the most important securityrelated developments across Africa, wellbefore they are needed. Overall,the accuracy of our headline assessments is 91%.

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OUR RESULTS

20%ARMED GROUPS

REGIONAL SECURITY / TERRORISM

NATIONAL SECURITY70%

10%

94%REPORTS

ACCURACY

88%BLOGS

100%PRESENTATIONS

100%

TIMELINESS

100%

100%

100%

RELEVANCE

100%

100%

In the six years since Think Security Africa started, we have developed metrics by which we assess the extent to which are are ful�lling our founding objectives.

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Measuring Impact

Social interaction withour resources

Creation of an organisational blueprint

2009-10

Start-up

Formal registrationin England & Wales

Registration

Development of projects and resources

Feature in UNESCO’sCulture of Peace in Africa project

Feature

2011 2012-13 2014

Project Evolution

TSA research featured across six continents

6 Continents

2015

THINK SECURITY AFRICA TIMELINE

SOCIAL

The reliability of our resources. Measured by accuracy, timeliness,& relevance.

RELIABILITY

The geographic spread and reach of our message

GLOBAL REACH

The extent to which ourresources are used. We have chosen to use downloadsvs. visitor numbers

USAGE

THINK SECURITY AFRICA

Has evolved from being an idea, to becoming a globally recognised organisation in six years.We measure our organisation’s impact by the extent of resource usage, the reach of our message,the reliability of our resources, and social engagement.

UTILISATION

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RELIABILITY

04/14 Highlighted the importance of skill vs. money for a more equal society. 04/15 foreign shop owners were in essence attacked for their relative capability. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

MALI BRIEFING 04/14 Failure to engage nationalists in the North, could create more space for extremism to flourish. There have since been deadly attacks in Bamako and other towns. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

BRING BACK OUR GIRLS 04/14 Rescue efforts unlikely to be successful. In 10/14, there were reports of a high-level rescue effort. Subsequently women were rescued. The Chibok girls are yet to be rescued. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

05/14 Focused on the need to maintain cohesion between the RDR & PDCI parties for ongoing stability. 02/15 Daoukro declaration was made in support of this. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

BRIEFING IVORY COAST 06/14 Highlighted the importance of diplomacy as the most important tool in combating violence in the DRC, in view of the countries 9 neighbouring states. Accurate n/a Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

DRC & NEIGHBOURS 08/14 Likely rise in insurgent-like activity in Kenya. Hallmarks have become clear in Garissa, Mandera & Wajir counties. Accurate ! Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY PROFILE KENYA

01/15 Amidst rising conflict preserv-ing stability in Africa should result in the postponement of elections. This occurred in Nigeria, CAR, South Sudan & Burundi from 02/15. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY IN AFRICA 2014 02/15 Projected the rising influence of ISIS & expressed concern that efforts to counter extremism could fuel it. Subsequently, 2 major African terrorist groups joined ISIS. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

RISING TERRORISM 03/15 Free & Fair elections likely to produce no clear winner. Voting patterns were in line with expectations. However, the outcome was not in line with our projection. Accurate " Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

NIGERIA’S 2015 ELECTIONS

INEQUALITY SOUTH AFRICA

OIL, GAS & SECURITY 09/11 Rising oil & gas states may result in maritime disputes & civil unrest. 2012-14 there were 3 new maritime disputes, & civil unrest over oil occurred in Chad & Niger. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY IN NIGERIA 06/11 Warned about the rise of extremists & rising regional oil production. Nigeria is fighting to reverse an existential Salafist threat & maintain economic stability. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

FDI & INSECURITY 10/10 Assessed investment trends in conflict-impacted countries, and conditions under which ongoing FDI inflows persist. Patterns persisted in South Sudan and Sudan. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

05/12 Ability to deliver on economic needs would decide the fate of Muslim Brotherhood gov’t, more than ideological solidarity. They were removed following protests. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY PRIORITES EGYPT 06/12 Raised concerns about cont-agion from across the region. From 05/13 Niger has been attacked on 3 fronts & has become more reliant on external partnerships. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY IN NIGER 07/12 Assessed the urgent need to improve border security. By 2014, 45% of African states were seriously impacted by border insecurity, up 12% from the previous year. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

BORDER SECURITY

12/12 French plans to retreat from Africa militarily unlikely to succeed. In 2015 French military engagement encompasses operations across the Sahel, CAR, & against Boko Haram. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

FRANCE IN AFRICA 09/13 Volume of young Africans & unemployment could combine to create serious national & regional problems. It didn’t envisage the scale of drownings off North Africa. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

MAKING IT IN AFRICA 03/14 Warned of the urgent need to take concerted efforts to prevent conflict. Subsequently, between 2013 - 14 the number of serious African conflicts rose from 7 to 10. Accurate ✓✓ Relevant ✓✓ Timely ✓✓

SECURITY IN AFRICA 2013

REACH

SOCIAL

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