thesis proper land use planning (holistic management hm) can sequester 160 gt of atmospheric co2 and...
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Thesis
Proper land use planning (Holistic Management HM) can sequester 160 Gt of atmospheric CO2 and - everything else being equal - reduce atmospheric CO2 back to below 300 ppmv in less than 2 decades.
HM can take 10Gt per year of CO2 out of the air, more than is being put in through fossil fuel burning.
Atmospheric CO2 Levels1100 - 4 x 275
550 - 2 x 275
450 - IPCC goal - Ward “scared”
380 today
350 (reached in 1988. Hansen “Danger”)
315 - When Jim is born
299 Goal
275 Pre-industrial
250 Average
240 Ice Age high
180 Ice Age low
400,000 Year CO2 VariationsHistoric High? Historic Low?
Legacy of Civilization ?
1. Deserts Advancing
2. Ocean Dead Zones Increasing
3. Polar Ice Melting
4. Atmospheric CO2 Increasing ~ 2 ppmv / yr
What is OUR GOAL?
AgriBiz
Jim Laurie1991 - Houston
Maddox Ranch - 1986 vs. 1994
1986
Stocking 1 animal per 30 acres.(overgrazing?)
Vegetation sparse w/ low diversity.
Flood and Drought Cycles
Wildlife considered a threat to grass.
$900/day interest on the debt.
Ranch supports 4 people.
1994
Stocking 1 animal per 15 acres.
5 X the vegetation w/ many more species including perennial grasses.
Land holds much more water. Streams run most of the year and ponds hold water longer.
Wildlife now a resource. Deer leases.Dung Beetles return!!!!!
Family out of debt. Quality of Life improved.
Ranch supports 5 families with 14 people.
Maddox Ranch - West Texas
http://www.utexas.edu/depts/grg/eworks/proceedings/engeo/richardson/richardson.html
Dr. Dick Richardson - University of Texas 1996
Big Bluestem re-appears in West Texas !!!
How deep do Dung Beetles go?
Left - Upstream from Ranch
Right - Running Through the Ranch
Holistic Management - 4 Key Insights1. Holistic Perspective is Essential to Management
2. Brittleness Scale
3. Predator - Prey Connection
4. Overgrazing is a Function of Time not Numbers.
Don’t allow the following !!!!
1. No Ground is Left Uncovered
2. Soil in the Creek is NOT Normal
3. No Set Stocking - a major cause of overgrazing.
4. Never assume your plan is right !!! (Monitor & Replan)
http://www.holisticmanagement.org/
Arctic Ice - Summer 1979 & 2007
1979
2007
How much longer before we don’t have summer artic ice?
When was the last time there was no summer polar ice?
What happens when the ice is gone?
Is this a big deal?
Greenland Ice Melt
CO2 - By the Numbers
CO2 Levels are Now ~ 380 ppmv ~ 760 Billion Tons of Carbon (as CO2)
Pre-industrial Levels ~ 275 ppmv ~ 550 Billion Tons of Carbon (as CO2)_____________________________________________________________________________
Increase ~ 105 ppmV ~ 210 Gt C (or Gigatons of Carbon)
Legacy Carbon ! - Allen Savory
Each ppmV of CO2 contains very close to 2 Gt of Carbon.
If we had a goal of reducing atmospheric CO2, we would lower it 1 ppmv for every 2 Gt of Carbon we could sequester somewhere else.
To return to 300 ppmV how many Gt C would we need to lock up?
Where would it go?
Paleo CO2 (Ward)Paleo CO2 & O2“Oxygen is the driver of evolution.”
Peter Ward
Nature has sequestered C02 several times in the past 600 million years.
Each time tells a story.
What’s the current story?
CO2, Driver of ExtinctionsCO2: Driver of Extinctions
8 of 10 ExtinctionsOccurred during rapid atmospheric CO2 increase.
Carboniferous Period
1 ExtinctionMeteor - Dinosaurs
Dr. Peter Ward (U of Washington)“Under a Green Sky” © 2007
Dr. Lee Kump (Penn State)
Quote from Peter Ward
“ …. if there is even the slightest chance that the carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere of 200 million years ago caused this mass extinction, as well as numerous other times before and since that ancient calamity, then it is time for we practitioners who study the deep past begin screaming……….
In our case the cry must be: “I’m scared as hell, and I am not going to be silent anymore!”
…….we sat in the remains of a greenhouse extinction, and it was not pretty, this graveyard, the evidence in these dirty rocks utterly demolishing any possibility of hyperbole. Is it happening again? Most of us think so, but there are so few of us that study the deep past and compare it to the present and future. Thus this book, words tumbling out powered by rage and sorrow but mostly fear, not for us but for our children — and theirs.”
Intro to “Under a Green Sky”Written in Nevada in late 2007
Refers to rocks from the Triassic Extinction found in Muller Canyon
Greenhouse Extinction Process1. CO2 levels rise rapidly.
2. Polar Ice Melts
3. Temperature Differences Drop and Winds Die Down
4. Ocean Temperatures Rise blowing off oxygen and other gases.
5. Oxygen Circulation is impaired and it becomes anoxic. (Dead Zones appear)
6. If the water becomes anaerobic and there are nutrients like phosphorus available, then a CANFIELD OCEAN is possible.
7. Hydrogen Sulfide (rotten egg smell) bubbles out of the sea and becomes a threat to land animals.
8. In the Permian Extinction, 99% of individuals died as did 90% of species.
We are experiencing a very rapid increase in CO2, and we are sending more than 20 billion tons of topsoil to the oceans every year providing plenty of nutrients for growing “Dead Zones.” If the Polar Ice Melts, it could be very hard to reverse this process. (Is this Peter Ward’s fear?)
Ocean Acidity Rising
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Jim Laurie Reaction - November 2007
1. A lot of tears that first night.
2. I decided that we must get the Carbon out of the air. My calculation we needed to reduce atmospheric CO2 back to 300. That’s 80 ppm or 160 Gt C.
3. There are a lot of species and humans that I like on this planet. I’m very partial to children and birds and furry things. I would like to see them thrive.
4. I made a decision to share what I have learned about ecosystem restoration.
5. I began my research by looking up old friends, the Holistic Management group.
6. Allen Savory, founder of HMI asserts that a modest 0.5% increase in soil carbon in the world’s degraded lands would require 150 Gt of Carbon from the air. Could it be true?
7. Well, there are at least 10 billion acres of degraded land. If we add a ton of Carbon per acre per year for 15 years, that’s 150 billion tons or 150 Gt C.
8. How can it be done? Many examples - including the Maddox Ranch !!!
Grasslands
Brittle Environment?
Grazing Plan?
Predator - Prey?
Grasslands Inhabitants
How Much Carbon to Air ?
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Restoration of Grasslands
1. Planned Grazing - Intense Impact with Short Duration
2. Return of Dung Beetles, Earthworms, Nematodes and Microbes.
3. Creation of Humus or Bug Poop (several tons / acre / year)
4. Return of Fungi Mycelium Networks (tons of glomulin)
5. Improved Water Retention - fewer floods and droughts.
6. No erosion - reversing dead zones in ocean
7. Uptake of perhaps 10 GT C per year will draw down CO2 from the air.
8. A good goal might be reducing atmospheric CO2 by 2 ppm / yr.
9 Passing 350 ppm on the way down. The Ice begins to return.
10 Areas without farming or ranching need animal impact to recover.
11 Wild herds of grazing animals with predators return.
Recovery Examples
1. Yellowstone National Park
2. Tiptons Experiment in Nevada
3. Chernobyl Nuclear Site
4. Rodale Organic Farm - PA
Key Actors
1. Menhaden - Key to Restoring Ocean Food Chains and Reversing Dead Zones
2. Dung Beetles - Can bury 1 ton of wet manure / acre / day
3. Beaver and Prairie Dogs
4. Earthworms, Nematodes, Microbes
5. Fungi Mycelium
6. Goats - May be critical in reversing the desertification of California. Most of California is Brittle Environments. High Impact - Short Duration
Resources
Holistic Management International
Carbon Farmers of America
Managing Wholes
HRM Model
Testing Questions
Paleo CO2 Data