• "There are so many fish being caught it's crazy." (According to a veteran troller for king salmon out of California's Half Moon Bay) - Pacific Fishing September 2002

• "Washington's coastal troll season was productive when the biggest run of the biggest kings seen in years just kept coming." - Pacific Fishing March 2003

• "There's been a lot of good stuff (chinook salmon) coming out of Oregon off the coast...the Columbia River was a real good run this year - beautiful fish - the best run I've seen out of there in many, many years." - Alaska Fisherman's Journal July 2003

Peterson and SchwingGRL, 2003

Mantua et al. 1997

Positive PDO Negative PDO

Victoria’s Secret: On the Recent Shift in the State of

the North Pacific Ocean

Nick Bond, Jim Overland, Mick Spillane,

Phyllis Stabeno, Muyin Wang

Winter - The PDO takes a breakSummer - The plot thickensGCM projections for the early 21st century

Gargett 1997

Observed coastal ocean temperature changes in summer 2005

17.5C on July 1417.5C on July 14

~11C on July 20~11C on July 20

Stonewall Banks Buoy SST18 June - 2 August 2005

20 July 2005 NOAA CoastWatch imageBuoy SST plolt courtesy of Pete Lawson

Salmon catches in June surveys: 1998-2005

Catches of coho salmon in June 2005 were lower than June 1998 during the El Niño.

True also for Chinook salmon

Number of juvenile coho

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Ca

tch

es o

f ju

ve

nile

sa

lmo

n p

er

km

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Number of spring chinook

YEAR

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2005 - worst year on record for 2005 - worst year on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west Farallon Island auklets (42 km west

of San Francisco)of San Francisco)

Mean productivity = 0.70

Differences between 1999-2002 and 1994-1997

SST Clouds

700 mb Omega Precip. H2O

Warm SST off Coast Cool SST off Coast

SLP

SST

Omega

H2O

More Precipitable H2O Fewer Clouds

North Pacific SST Animations

http://tmap.pmel.noaa.gov (and follow your nose)

E. Curchitser, Lamont-Doherty

1860 Conditions Increased CO2

G.A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) – Leading Mode of N.Pacific SSTA

BCCR CGCM3-T63

CCSM3

CGCM3-T47

CSIRO GISS-AOM

GISS-EH GISS-ER INM

IPSL MIROC-Hi MIROC-Me

MRI PCM1 UK-HadCM3

Principal ComponentsBlack – Observed PDO

2nd Leading Modeof SST Variability

Temperature anomaly oC Ice concentration

Hori and Ueda, GRL, 2006

Summary

1. The “classic” PDO mode is incomplete in characterizing North Pacific climate variability.

2. The wintertime North Pacific SST variability during the last decade is dominated by a shift in the 2nd leading mode in the late 1990s.

3. This switch in the 2nd mode may help explain the occurrence of increased productivity in the CCS along with continued productivity in the GOA.

4. The summertime PDO shifted from positive to negative in the late 1990s.

5. SST anomalies along the U.S. west coast may have tangible impacts on the weather inland.

GCM Projections of North Pacific Climate

1. Some modeling systems appear capable of mimicking the observed variability during the 20th century.

2. The Bering Sea shelf represents a particularly useful (and important) testbed for evaluating these models.