theory of randomness
Post on 11-Sep-2014
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DESCRIPTION
The presentation describes theory of randomness in day to day lifeTRANSCRIPT
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Randomness
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Introduction
• Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events.
• Randomness suggests a non-order or non-coherence in a sequence of symbols or steps, such that there is no intelligible pattern or combination.
• Applied usage in science, mathematics and statistics recognizes a lack of predictability when referring to randomness, but admits regularities in the occurrences of events whose outcomes are not certain.
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History
• The concepts of chance and randomness were intertwined with that of fate.
• Many ancient peoples threw dice to determine fate.
• The Greek philosophers discussed randomness at length, but only in non-quantitative forms
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Modern Approach
• In the sixteenth century the Italian mathematicians began to formalize the odds associated with various games of chance.
• Although randomness had often been viewed as an obstacle and a nuisance for many centuries,
• Twentieth century saw a rapid growth in the formal analysis of randomness.• Development of calculus.• Mathematical foundations of probability were introduced.• A new viewpoint towards randomness in the digits of pi.
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Randomness in Science
• Probability Theory.• Statistics.• Game Theory.• Information Theory.• In Finance.• Pattern Recognition.
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In Mathematics
• The mathematical theory of probability arose from attempts to formulate mathematical descriptions of chance events, originally in the context of gambling.• Later in statistical context.• Also for simulation purposes.
• Monte Carlo Simulators.
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In Information Theory:
• In information science, irrelevant or meaningless data is considered noise.
• In communication science, randomness in a signal is called "noise
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In Finance
• The random walk hypothesis considers about the random evolution of asset prices.
• Stock Market Crash and its Rise.
• More generally, asset prices are influenced by a variety of unpredictable events in the general economic environment.
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Randomness VS Unpredictability
• Randomness, as opposed to unpredictability, is an objective property.• What appears random to one observer may not appear random to another.
• For example: sequence of bits with cryptographic key.
• One of the intriguing aspects of random processes is that it is hard to know whether a process is truly random.• An observer may suspect that there is some "key" that unlocks the message.• This itself is one of the foundations to superstition but also to discovery in science and mathematics.
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Randomness and Religion.
• Hindu and Buddhist philosophies state that any event is the result of previous events (karma), and as such, there is no such thing as a random event or a first event.
• However another aspect of it describes about the first cause or free will.
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Conclusions that can be derived:
• Human beings are wired in a way that they are unable to intuitively handle randomness and chance.
• We are adept at explaining everything through a cause-effect; because we just can’t handle uncertainty.
• Past performance cannot be blindly used to predict future performance.
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Thank You
Presented By :Roshan Karande