thefuturesagency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected tv...

73
Gerd Leonhard Futurist, Author, CEO TheFuturesAgency The Future of Media: Social. Local. Mobile. Cloud @gleonhard

Upload: others

Post on 08-Oct-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Gerd LeonhardFuturist, Author, CEO

TheFuturesAgency

The Future of Media:Social. Local. Mobile. Cloud

@gleonhard

Page 3: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

For clients such as...

Page 4: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!Download via Cloudftp

Page 5: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Page 6: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Exponential Disruption... Speed

Page 7: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Disrupt...or Be Disrupted

Page 8: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

There is no recipe

- but there are some important

learnings, foresights and

hunches:)

Page 9: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! “Change the instruments, and you will change

the entire social theory that goes with them” Bruno Latour 2009

Page 10: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Social Media is Content. Not Marketing

Page 11: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! My way or the highway...

Can we enforce payment online?

Page 12: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The problem is not the ‘pay’ -

it’s the wall!

Source:

Page 13: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Ease of use + Choice + Price +

Added Values + Brand = $£!

Page 14: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Search « » SocialTelevision « » InternetComputer « » Mobile

Online « » Of"ineSocial Media « » Corp. CommsFragmentation « » Aggregation

User « » Producer

Convergence will pose serious Challenges- and offer massive Opportunities

Page 15: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Next 3-5 years: TeleMedia convergence

Page 16: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Content

TelecomTechnology

Devices/ CE

Page 17: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Page 18: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The future is already here:

Voice Control | Instant Translation | Gestures

Page 19: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Augmented Humans?

Page 20: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Beyond Moore’s Law

Page 21: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The Internet just made another 3 huge leaps

Social Local Mobile

Page 22: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Page 23: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Nirvana - and quite possibly a

kind of Madness, as well

Page 24: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! 2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet,

50+ major platforms, a !250 Billion ad market

Page 25: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media consumption will be via mobile devices *

Page 26: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Mobile. Social. Cloud. FLF:)

*Feels Like Free

Page 27: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Curated Mobile Immersion

Page 28: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! From ‘Stuff’ to Services

From hard goods to soft goods

Page 29: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Media.them ! Media.Us

Page 30: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!The Social OS. Be networked or be... gone.

Page 31: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The Social OS: we have new powers.

Now we need to learn new responsibilities

Page 32: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The new cult of Publicy...:)

Page 33: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Aren’t humans a lot more

complex and non-linear than Algorithms?

Page 34: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Well, it is kind of a game:)

Page 35: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

It comes down to control and responsibility

Page 36: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

data oil

Many new, #rst-time-ever issues

Page 37: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Every screen is becoming some

kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’

Page 38: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Second Screens: Many ‘New Generatives’

Page 39: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Fragmentation is becoming a massive challenge

Page 40: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Touch. Play. Connect. Share.

Access not ownership *

Page 41: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Access *not ownership

Page 42: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Music is #rst *

Page 43: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Total Unbundling of Media

Page 44: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The end of Distribution as the key

success factor, metric - and gate-keeper

Page 45: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Challenge #1 for the consumer, access to content

will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership

Source: Huf#ngton Post

Page 46: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Selling digital ‘Content’:70-90% ‘value’ reduction if compared to traditional, of"ine metrics

Page 47: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Piracy

CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org

Piracy

Page 48: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Control consumption?

Make content unavailable?

Enforce payment?

Restrict sharing?

Create arti#cial scarcity?

Sue fans into submission?

Page 49: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Page 50: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! So very true:

It all depends...!

Page 51: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! LinkedIn

SkypeGoogleAmazonDropboxEvernote

Flickr...

Page 52: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Up-Selling Premium-Services

New GenerativesAdded Values

Page 53: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Build income streams around Content.

Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models

Page 54: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Content � Context

Page 55: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Content � Commerce

Page 56: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Content � Ads

Page 57: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

News Paper

News Paper

Page 58: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

* Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org

Packaging and Interfaces Curation, Filtering and Selection

Social Context & Relevance Intelligent Aggregation

Assisted Serendipity Timeliness and Personal Relevance

Quality and Trust Guarantee Customization and Personalization

Localization / Contextualization Cloud-to-Device Management

Advertising as Content (Branded Content) Gami#cation

... and many more

The New Generatives *Kevin Kelly

Page 59: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Some New Generatives

Page 60: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! There are many other ways to get paid

(apart from cash)

Page 61: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! We are already..

Paying with our Data

Page 62: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! A Faustian deal?

Page 63: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Having the cake and eat it?

Page 64: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Big Data will fund new ‘Big Content’

Page 65: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

Image via WEF

Page 66: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives
Page 67: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Digital Content � Digital Advertising

Page 68: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Going Direct is becoming very real

Page 69: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! But Apps will need to open-up, as well

Page 70: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Is this the Net we really want?

Page 71: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Key points to remember

Page 72: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

It’s a MOBILE world nowSoLoMo + Cloud

Disrupt or be disruptedAccess not (just) ownership

Content piracy is unmet demandValue is derived around the content

Pursue new generativesData is the new Oil

Feels Like Free / Freemium is crucial

Key points to remember

Page 73: TheFuturesAgency - mediafutureweek.nl€¦ · Every screen is becoming some kind of Ôconnected TV or RadioÕ. The future is already here! Second Screens: Many ÔNew Generatives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

C R E A T I V E

D E S I G N :

ThankYou!