the$cra$dis,llery$market 2011$and$beyond$

The Cra( Dis,llery Market 2011 and Beyond

© Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC

Cra( Dis,llery Market Snapshot

•  364 Unique U.S. lis,ngs in ADI Directories 2006-‐2012 •  314 Unique U.S. lis,ngs in 2012 ADI Directory (year-‐end 2011) •  234 Opera,ng Cra( Dis,lleries as of year-‐end 2011

•  234 of 314 ADI-‐listed firms in 2012 directory •  Probably ~10 “hidden” entrants •  244 Entrants, 10 Exits

•  # of Entrants is doubling every three years •  In 2011, 45 states had opera,ng Cra( Dis,lleries

•  Increase from 25 in 2005, and 12 in 2000


Cra( Dis,lleries: How Many?

2011 includes currently unreported entrants

© Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick

Cra( Dis,lleries: How Many? Total Market Entrants By Year

© Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick

Cra( Dis,lleries…What are they making? Note: Mul*ple-‐category firms mean these %-‐ages do not sum to 100%

Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick © Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC

Cra( Dis,lleries…What are they making? •  Vodka con,nues strong •  Newer Entrants moving toward Whiskeys


Cra( Dis,lleries By State, 2011


Cra( Dis,lleries By State, 1990-‐2010 1990 2000

2005 2010


U.S. Dis,llery History •  Tens of Thousands of producers pre-‐1820s

•  Dis,lling was a significant industry in the early U.S. •  # declines with introduc,on of con,nuous s,lls

•  Thousands of producers pre-‐Prohibi,on •  Mass media, marke,ng, and transporta,on lead to consolida,on across

a range of industries during the late 1800s-‐early 1900s

•  # collapses to fewer than 100 in 1980 •  Many thousands of illegal producers un,l recently

•  Rebirth in Cra( Dis,lleries is following a similar path to the growth in the Farm Winery and Cra( Brewery industries •  …And other completely unrelated ones


# of Licensed Dis,lleries in the US, 1880 -‐ 2011

Data: US Treasury, BATF, ADI, Michael Kinstlick


Number of US Wineries, 1933 – 2006: Farm Wineries & the rebirth of American Viniculture

Data: Anand Swaminathan © Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC

# of US Brewing Firms, 1633 -‐ 2011

Number never goes to 0

Data: Anand Swaminathan, Glenn Carroll


# of US Brewers, Wineries, and Dis,lleries, 1880 -‐ 2011


Data: US Treasury, BATF, ADI, Michael Kinstlick, Glenn Carroll, Anand Swaminathan

Industry Growth Paths Cra( Dis,lleries vs. Cra( Breweries


Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick, Glenn Carroll, Anand Swaminathan

Conclusion

•  Number of Cra7 Dis:lleries in the market will grow from about 250 to over 1000 over the next 10 years.

•  Cra( Dis,lled spirits consump,on is moving from “innovator” to “early-‐adopter” phase. •  Cra( Brewers have 7% US Beer Market share by $

•  The renewal of American dis,lling is following a classic panern of industry resurgences. •  Farm Wineries and Cra( Brewers are 2 familiar examples, but the

panerns hold true across industries and loca,ons.


Data & Methods •  What is a Micro-‐Dis,llery?

1.  Independent Firm •  Below a certain produc,on volume (?) •  DISCUS uses 40,000 cases, ADI 65,000 Proof Gallons (~32,000 cases)

2.  Dis,lling spirits themselves 3.  Bonling & Marke,ng them directly

•  Defini,on Excludes… •  Barrelers & Bonlers •  Importers •  Rec,fiers •  Contract Dis,llers

•  Data •  ADI Directories, 2006-‐2012 •  Researched all entries online for evidence of produc,on and other

details (product line, etc.) © Michael Kinstlick and Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC

About the Author Michael Kinstlick comes to the spirits industry from a 20 year career in finance, technology, and insurance. He co-‐founded Coppersea Dis,lling, LLC with dis,ller Angus MacDonald in 2011. Coppersea is currently undergoing its licensing process, and expects to begin produc,on in 2012. Michael has a BA in Economics from Columbia University, a MS in Industrial Engineering from Northwestern, and a MBA from the Haas School of Business at U.C. Berkeley.


the$cra$dis,llery$market 2011$and$beyond$

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