thebraziliandecadebyrolandberger-strategiesdrivinginnovationandgrowth-101217054930-phpapp02

8/7/2019 thebraziliandecadebyrolandberger-strategiesdrivinginnovationandgrowth-101217054930-phpapp02

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THE BRAZILIAN

Strategies driving Innovation and Growth

SoPaulo April, 2010


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BRAZIL 2010 Time to act in a unique situation

e g o a cr s sWhere are we after year one

page 3

Why Brazil is doing so much better page 11

Yes, but no time to lay back

Innovation is ke

page 17

Joint public and private effort required

Cor orate Brazil as innovation driver

page 26

2

Strategies for global growth page 36


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The global crisis

year one

3


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Situation at start of 2010 All the key indicators move upwards

ECONOMY FINANCE MOOD

(index)

COLLAPSE-3.1% -54% -64points

RECOVERY +3.0% +58% +49points

As at start of 2008 Down 47% comparedto 06/07 average

Down 16 pts. comparedto 06/07 average

4

TODAY COMPARED TO BEFORE THE CRISISSource: IMF, Bloomberg, Ifo Institute, Roland Berger analysis


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Global GDP has recovered quickly V-shaped trend

OUR CRISIS SCENARIOSGlobal GDP, indexed (Q2 2008 = 100) and global GDPgrowth quarter-on-quarter

100.099.9+0.4% +1.0%

> Turning point mid-2009> Strong recovery> Our predicted likelihood in

.

-0.1%+1.1%

2009: 75> Scenario realized

> Turning point 2010

98.6 - .

-1.6%

+0.9%> Almost zero growth until then> Our predicted likelihood in

2009: 23%> Scenario not realized

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4

96.9

Q4

> Depression continuesuntil2010

> Our predicted likelihood in

5Source: IMF

2008 20092007 2009: 2%

> Scenario not realized


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Stock markets have made partial recoveries

Are stock markets a

Key share indexes(highs, lows and index at start of month)

good indicator?

YES

Dow Jones Dax Shanghai Composite

14,165 8,106 6,092

company figures, shifts inthe market, etc.> They reflect growth

otential and eneral

+58%+54%

5,653

+81%

economic outlook

NO> Market s eculation and

,3,088

irrationality ignorefundamental data

> Not all companies arelisted on stock markets 10/07 03/10 06/07 03/10 10/07 03/1002/09 03/09 11/08

6,547 3,666 1,707

6

not the full story

Source: Bloomberg


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Other key indicators are also pointing toward recovery

Brent oil price

(U$/barrel1))

Ifo global business climate

(index)

Global exports

(U$ bn)

140 115+96%

4,321

+31%100

+88%3,517

79

42 512,685

7

1) At start of month

Source: Bloomberg, Ifo Institute


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But it ain't over yet

Economic growth is still below pre-cris is levelsorecas s . , compare o . n

Lagging indicators have not yet bottomed out

Causes of the crisis have not been dealt with

, ,

, , .

Risk of flash in the pan effectseconomic stimulus ro rams trust

Boom markets fuelled not just by fundamental data, but also cheap moneyfrom central banks

8


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HOW LONG WILL THE CRISIS LAST?Forecasts are difficult and still vary widely

GDP growth [%]

3.0

in 2009

WORLD

2.2 IMF 3.9World Bank 2.7

.

BRAZIL

0.5

-0.8-1.1

-1.3OECD 4.8

IMF 4.7

9Source: IMF, Consensus Economics

or an .c ov an pr c an


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OUR ASSESSMENT Three countries have the key for globaleconomic recovery

Global share [%]

Population1) GDP2)

possible, if

> growAND

INDIA keeps up

AND

TOTAL 40 37USA show first signs ofrecover

10Source: CIA World Factbook

1) World population 2008: 6.7 bn 2) World GDP 2008: USD 70.7 tr


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Unique strengths

much better

11


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According to the IMF forecast, Brazil will be the only BRIC country togrow at a pre-crisis rate in 2010

Average annual GDP growth: 2004-2007, 2009 and forecast for 2010 [%]

4.7 4.7

7.49.1

7.7

.

8.7

10.0

4.9.

5.6

.

-0.2-0.8

-9.0

Brazil Russia India ChinaWorld

12Source: IWF

Annual average 2004-2007 2009 2010 (IMF forecast)


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Ibovespa has nearly reached its all-time high again It hasrecovered much better than RTS and Shanghai Composite

Ibovespa [Index] Shanghai Composite [Index]

-

RTS [Index]

-

67,228

-highMay 2008

73,438

highSep 2007

6,124

highJun 2008

2,464

3,0881,430

38,3831,126

Nov 2008All-time lowOctober 2008 29,435

,

1,161

All-time low Jan 2006

492All-time lowJan 2009

13

Jan 1, 2006 Mar 1, 2010 Jan 1, 2006 Mar 1, 2010Jan 1, 2006 Mar 1, 2010

Source: Bloomberg


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Brazil is already an economic heavyweight

Brazil's global ranking in selected areas

Economy (according topurchasing power

Exports of sugar,ethanol, soy and

Agricultural land

par ty Size, population

Currency stocks

ee

Ethanolproduction

1122334455667788991010

14


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Brazil's potential is based on unique strengths and on strongopportunities

> Young, dynamic population> erv ce-or en e a u e an ex y

> Large, partially unexploitedoffshore oil fields near the coast

'

(200 million hectares of unused agricultural land)> Largest rainforests on earth

> Technology leaders inethanol-driven engines and inoffshore oil extraction

> Globall rowin demand for ethanol and ethanol-based technolo ies

2 ,

> Major upcoming events: World Cup in 2014 and Olympic Games in 2016

15

BRAZIL'S OPPORTUNITIES


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Brazil has a unique combination of four strengths to fostersustainable economic growth

POLICY CAPITAL MARKETS> Stable domestic and foreign policies stabilizing

institutions, balancing competing stakeholders'interests, acting responsively on international scale

> Overcomin historical economic volatilities

> Conservative banking regulation prevented thecollapse of the financial system (compared to US,Europe, etc.)

> Net forei n creditor recent elevation to(inflation, exchange rates, etc.) weathering theeconomic crisis well, better than most othercountries

investment grade status

> Solid, transparent and efficient stock-market

> Brazil investing heavily in its future Energy sector 2010-2030: BRL 1.960 bn World Cup/Olympics: BRL 97 bn

> Very large domestic market public sector,companies, households

> Growing middleclass, with increasing buying , . .BRL 35 bn

> Positive secondaryeffects on supplier industries,e.g. shipyards: > 40,000 new jobs created

power

> Enthusiastic consumers also in "crisis year"2009

16

DOMESTIC DEMAND INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMS


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A Brazilian decade ,

to lay back

17


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Brazil's future: The window is open for strong growth

EIKE BATISTA, Business Week,,"We believe that in five years Brazil will

be the fifth-largest economy in

t e wor .

DB RESEARCH, report

"Brazil 2020", January 20, 2010"In 2020 Brazil will haveoutrunFrance and the UK and will be

"

18

- .


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However, the look from the outside on Brazil shows the areas ofconcern for the country's future

The most problematic factors for doing business [% of responses]

Inefficient overnment bureaucrac 11.0

Restrictive labor regulations 14.0

Tax rates 18.5

Tax regulations 19.0

Corruption 7.0

Inadequate supply of infrastructure 9.5

Access to financing 10.4

1.0

Policy instability 1.1

.

Poor work ethic in national labor force 0.9

Inflation

Government instability/coups 0.3

Poor public health 0.6

Crime and theft 0.7

.

19Source: WEF, Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010

From a list of 15 factors, respondents were asked to select the five most problematic for doing business in their country/economy and to rank them between 1 (mostproblematic) and 5. The bars in the figure show the responses weighted according to their rankings


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The Brazilian economy in early 2010 some signs of concern

Observations

1. Limited value added on products in 2009, for the firsttime since 1978, export of basic products was higher than QUESTION

2. Not enough savings only 14,6% of GDP in 2009, thelowest level since 2001 and vs. 45% for China

How do theseweaknesses

3. First time since 2001 current account isnegative CentralBank estimates deficit of USD 49 bnin 2010

is the key forsolution?

4. Not investing enough in innovation only 0,82% of GDP

20Source: World Bank; Brazilian Central Bank; Associao de Comrcio Exterior do Brasil

. , ,


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There is a strong correlation between innovation and the share ofvalue added products in exports

CORRELATION BETWEEN INNOVATION AND

Share VAProducts1)[%]

> Brazil's low investment in R&D highlycorrelates with its low degree of value

90 Japan

a e pro uc s uge gap o ea ng

economies> Low share of value added products means

70

Germany

USA

a expor s revenues are very sens e omarket price of commodities

> Conclusion: Brazil has to invest in

Brazil

60

50

nnova on o eve op a sus a na eposi tion as a world-leading economy

Expenditureson R&D/GDP2) %

21Source: World Bank; OECD; UN-TradeCom

0 1 2 3 4

0

1) Data for 2008 2) Data for 2006, except for Brazil (2005)


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Brazil is not investing enough in innovation

Expenditures on R&D (public and private) as share of GDP

3.40%

. 2.52%

1.08%

.

0.69%0.82%

Brazil IndiaRussiaJapan USA Germany China

22

(2006) (2006) (2006) (2006) (2006) (2005) (2004)

Source: World Bank


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As a result, Brazil dropped down 18 positions in global innovationranking

Results from the survey Global Innovation Index 2010

According to the Global Innovation Index 2010 Brazil fell from 50th to68th position in the world rankings for innovation in 2010

AmongLatin American countries, the country was only the 7th placecompared to the 3rd highest rank last year

In the group ofBRIC countr ies, Brazil was the one who recorded theworst result this year

23Source: Global Innovation Index 2010 (INSEAD, Confederation of Indian Industry)


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Brazil has to overcome structural weaknesses to take advantage ofits opportunities Innovation becomes key

clusters so far

Oil exploration in deep waters

ropca agrcu ure

Aircraft manufacturing

> Overall, Brazil's ranking in innovationis low "WE NEED

"

J. Stiglitz et al.Economics Nobel Prize Winner & Team

24

Source: Press research


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Close the innovation gap The areas for action are clear

Brazil's world ranking in innovation categories

INNOVATION CATEGORY WORLD RANK1)

28Ca acit for innovation

29Company spending on R&D34University-industry collaboration in R&D

59Utility patents

41Quality of scientific research institutions

overnment procurement o a vance tec pro ucts

60Availability of scientists and engineers

25Source: WEF, Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010

1) Of 132 countries

Competitive disadvantage


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Innovation is key

effort required

26


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To stimulate innovation, joint public and private effort is needed

Prerequisites to stimulate innovation

COMPANIESGOVERNMENT> Allocate the resources needed for innovation > "Key Innovation Drivers" push innovation in the

'rom pu c an prvae source

> Stimulate the creation of technology clustersand networks, also between universities and

wor s mos nnova ve companes

> The CEO has paramount influence on bothinnovation performance and innovation culture

> Foster the creative class/creative cities> There are many barriers to innovation that

need to be overcome by CEOs and their

colleagues

Results from "Innovating at the Top" A jointRoland Berger Creative Cities Approach

27


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GOVERNMENT

Foster the creative class/creative cities Example: USA

Economic success and creativity

HighEconomic success1)

San Francisco

Austin CREATIVITY INDEX++

Seattle

Boston

LOSERSTechnology (innovation)

++

WINNERS

Cleveland

DetroitTalent (human capital)

Creativity index2)

Milwaukee

Buffalo

New Orleans Tolerance (openness)

28Source: Richard Florida, Roland Berger

1) GDP, growth, per capita income, etc. 2) Technology, talent, tolerance

HighLow


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GOVERNMENT

To enable and stimulate innovation you need the creative class

Defini tion of the creative class1)

SHARE OF CREATIVE PEOPLE IN THE USAMembers of the creative classdevelop new, useful thingsthrough their work

45%

50% Share of working population

SERVICEclass

> IT & mathematical professions

> Engineers, architects, scientists> Art, media, entertainment 30%

35% CREATIVEclass

WORKING

15%

20%class

0%

5%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 1999

FARMING,FORESTRY& FISHING


1) The data in this section is based largely on research by Prof. Richard Florida of Carnegie Mellon University, who looks mainly at US cities


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GOVERNMENT

The creativity index of a region or city consists of the three elementstechnology, talent and tolerance

The three "Ts" in detail

How much high tech is in the region?Patents, technical universities, expenditures forR&D, etc.Technolo

How many creative people live in the region?cen s s, engneers, arc ecs, a ver sng

people, etc.Talent

How tolerant is a region?Share of different ways of life, artists, immigrants,ethnical mixture, openness for new cultures, etc.



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GOVERNMENT

Our successful "growing city" strategy for Hamburg suggestspursuing a "combination strategy" of technology and talent

Creativity strategy Hamburg

cycleShort

IT Media

"COMBINED STRATEGY"

> Highly innovative and moretraditional clusters exist side

Technology/talent

NanotechnologyRegenerativeenergy

> Fewer "natural" in terfaces

between clusters> Creative sectorforms its own

clusterthanks to its economic

Life sciences

importance

> Maintain the existing creativeNeed for talent

Long

Aviation Logistics/ports

cass an ar s c cu ura scene

> Strong focus on strengtheningthe technology base to attract"innovators"

an way oattracting it

31Source: Roland Berger

Very successful cluster

High LowR&D invest

Planning stageSuccessful cluster Being developed


32/49

GOVERNMENT

Successful cities in Europe driving innovation Strategic options forBrazil?

STRATEGY DESCRIPTION

COPENHAGENPEOPLE > Established hi h-tech cluster

Tech-nology

TalentToler-ance

FOLLOWINNOVATIVETECHNOLOGY

> Creative diversity (tolerance)being developed: used asimage

DUBLIN

BARCELONAJOBS FOLLOWCREATIVE

Tech- Toler-

> High-tech cluster beingdeveloped

nology ance

used as breeding ground

OF THE TWO

Tech-nology Talent

Toler-ance

> g - ec s ou e expan e> Creative diversity plays different

role for different clusters: catalystfor creative sector, less important

VIENNA

32Source: Roland Berger, Project Team

Berlin and Hamburg have no clear strategy targeting the creative class

as an mage acor


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COMPANIES

What drives innovation on company level Findings of our jointstudy with INSEAD

WHAT WE

DISCOVERED> Ten "Key Innovation

Drivers" push innova-'

innovative companies> TheCEO has paramount

> How leading companies drive innovation and achieve

higher growth and profits

-tion performance andinnovation culture

> How CEOs personally push innovation and implement innovation policies and practices

> What other com anies can learn from to innovators

> There are manybarriersto innovation that need tobe overcome by CEOs and

33

across regions and across different industries

Source: Roland Berger, INSEAD

CO S


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COMPANIES

The global perspective We talked with the CEOs of the world'smost innovative companies

George Buckley,CEO

Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo,CEO

Jim Balsillie,Co-CEO

Fujio Cho,Chairman

Patrick Cescau,Group CEO

Art Levinson,N.R. NarayanaMurthy,Franz Fehrenbach,

34Source: Roland Berger, INSEAD

enn ng agermann,CEO

COMPANIES


35/49

COMPANIES

The outcome of our study Innovation at the top needs strongleadership, ten key innovation drivers

1. Appoint the CEO as the innovation champion

. ee rae an nnova on cu ure

3. Engage more innovation partners by sharing knowledge

4. Or anize diversit to romote ositive friction and cross-fertilization

5. Use customer needs to drive simultaneous R&D and businessmodel innovation

.

7. Encourage youth and keep a challenger mentality

8. Appoint appropriate decision-makers and encourage transparentinformation sharing

9. Use processes judiciously

35Source: Roland Berger, INSEAD

.


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Corporate Brazil

Strategies for global growth

36


37/49

Starting point 2010 Why strategy and innovation in turbulenttimes?

> Most companies have been reacting remarkably quick and decisive on the crisis , ,

> They are nownavigating " at sight and with low speed" continuously observing, ,

> Now is the time for smart and fundamental strategic moves

,

Reshaping the industry, investing in new business models and innovation

> Shaping the future competitive position of Brazil's companies now! while(international) competitors are busy about cost cutting



38/49

Brazilian companies are increasingly successful in global markets

Selected multinationals from Brazil

PETROBRAS One of the largest oil companies in the world, a majorexporter of offshore oil extraction technology

World's largest exporter of iron ore and second largest mining

company

EMBRAER World's third largest passenger aircraft manufacturer

GERDAU Lar est manufacturer of lon steel in the Americas with26 production sites in North and South America

CAMARGO CORRA Dynamic conglomerate, with operations in

38

engineering & construction, cement, steel, concessions, among others


39/49

Brazilian companies are outperforming their international peers inkey industries

Performance of top players

Brazil vs. Global Leaders (EBITDA Margin 2008)

Share price evolution of top players

from selected sectors 2008-today

Europe BrazilUS

24%

9%10%

12%1 Aerospace

2 CosmeticsUS

BREU

BR

1 Aerospace

2 Cosmetics

-29%

-23%

-21%

+7%

-51%

+106%

29%

25%42%

23%

3 Mining

BREU

EUUS

3 Mining

-25%

- -

-2%

-

18%15%

22%

19%20%

5 Steel

BRINJP

EUUS

5 Steel

-38%1) -48%2) +8%

Brazilian industries gain competitive advantage on a global Weak global markets create take-over opportunit ies

10%15%

rewer es BREUJP

rewer es + - +

39Sources: Thomson Reuters

scale

1) Indian Company 2) Japanese Companies


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Brazilian companies can now act out of the position of strength tobecome global leaders

Kee our focus oncreatin rofitable rowth1

Align yourcorporate strategy to a changing environment

2

nnova e an nves n new us ness mo e s

Consolidate the industry on international scale4

Secure access to capital markets

Rethink the role ofthe cor orate head uarter

5

6Andbecome a truly global player7

40


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Keep your focus on creating profitable growth1Profitable Growth : Example Camargo Corra

CAGR +17% > Brazilian companies have been managingprofitable growth

13.2

10.5

EBTIDA growth 07-08: +129%

Bovespa Index CAGR06-08: + 38%

> For the ears ahead these com anies are8.4

6.66.06.2

5.2

pursuing ambitious growth plans with highinvestment budgets

> Effective value-based ortfolio mana e-18.4%18.2%19.2%18.1%19.9%18.5%19.9% ment becomes key to success

> The principle for true value creation issim le: the return on ca ital must be

41

2008200720062005200420032002EBITDA margin

Source : Roland Berger, Company Annual Report

higher than the cost of capital!


42/49

Align your corporate strategy to a changing environment2Conglomerate Discount

-

> Brazilian conglomerates have beenremarkabl successful mana in diversified

55

Top 1.000 Brazilian companies2)

average Ebitda 2008

Net revenuesCAGR04-08 [%]

business portfolios

> In a changing domestic and global economythese ortfolios should be reassessed

35

40

45

Clearly defining the portfolio logic:related vs. unrelated diversification,industry focus, competence clusters

Top 1000Braziliancompanies2)

average net 15

20

25 Overperformers

Identifying future core businesses toinvest in, and businesses to be divested

> Making the overall stock market the

CAGR 07-08

0

5

10

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

UnderperformersROE1)[%]

42Source: Annual Report s 2008, press research, Valor 1000, Valor 200 Grandes Grupos, Roland Berger

2) Return on Equity (net results/shareholder equity)2) Average of Top 1 000 companies in 2008 in the industrial sectors (no Banking & Insurance sector) valor 1000

enc mar or e por o o per ormanceNet revenues in 2008 [BRL bn]


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Innovate and invest in new business models3Innovation made in Brazil

. .

> Innovation is the key challenge for theBrazilian econom for the next decad

INNOVATIVE BUSINESS MODEL> Direct sales model for cosmetics

> Although overall ranking on innovation islow and even decreasing, there are positiveBrazilian exam les to build on oil

> Full sustainability appeal

INNOVATION MANAGEMENT

exploration in deep waters, tropicalagriculture, aircraft manufacturing

> Be ond that also in other ke industries

,> Around 180 new products on average per year

INNOVATION BENEFITS

such as consumer goods, international highperformers evolve Natura as one Brazilianexample for innovation

in 2008

> 17% sales increase 2008-2009> 19% EBITDA increase 2008-2009

43Source: Roland Berger, INSEAD, Clippings, Annual Report


44/49

Consolidate the industry on international scale4Consolidation path: Brazilian companies

> Synergies of scale and scope are thedriving factors for global M&A activities

JBS acquires Australian Tatiara Meat Company(Dec 2009) and Pilgrim's Pride (Dec 2009) andmerges with Bertin (Sep 2009), becoming #1

Meat Processing

M&As totals USD 1.810 bn globally in

2009, a 27% drop from 2008 Latin American deals declined only 9.5%

meat producer and #1 tanning company

Inbev (through AmBev) acquires Anheuser-Busch (Nov 2008), becoming the #1 brewer in

Breweries

> The competitive strength of Braziliancompanies now allows them to play a major

Braskem acquires Sunoco Chemicals division(Feb 2010) and Quattor (Jan 2010)

Petrochemicals

global scale

> And Brazilian companies do not hesitate toCosan acquires Exxon Mobile Brazilian distri-bution (Esso; Dec 2008) and merges its ethanol

Ethanol

44Source: Roland Berger, INSEAD, Clippings, Annual Report

and fuel distribution unit with Royal Dutch Shell(Feb 2010)


45/49

Secure access to capital markets5Recent track record of IPOs

> After an IPO boom in 2007, there were only 10IPOs in 2008-2009 due to the effects of the

OSX Brasil S.A.Ship constructionfirm

> Company raised BRL2,8 bn, lessthan 30% of initially expected

> Stock price down 12,5% on thefinancial crisis

> In 2010, IPOs are back, but investors are muchmore selective and demanding significant

BR PropertiesReal estate firm

first day of trade

> Raised 7% less money thatminimum price expected

scouns

More critical, especially with greenfieldcompanies

Renova EnergiaRenewable energies

,first day of trade

> IPO suspended due to lowdemand

verse o rs correa on e. anOGX, two strongly linked companies)

Focusing only on big operations (more thanInternational MealCompany

> IPO cancelled due to low demandeven after price lowering

45Source: Clippings, Annual Reports, Roland Berger

Holding ofrestaurants


46/49

Rethink the role of the corporate headquarter6Corporate headquarter: A decisive element to create value

> Sustainable growth, internationalization andnew businesses increase the requirements

Relatedness of the business in the portfo lio

for Brazilian corporate headquarters

> The ability of the corporate headquarter tocontribute to business development depends

SYNERGIES

Emerson ICI

ShellSingaporeAirlines

on the portfolio logic

Related diversification: facilitatingsynergies

KKR

Hutchison

Swire

Unilever

anon

(financial) resources

> Not aligning the corporate headquarter to the

Low

DESTRUCTIONOF VALUE

Hanson

Portfolioinvestor

Strategicarchitect

Strategiccontroller

Operator


Role of the center(involvement in operative decisions)


47/49

And become a truly global player7Global Leader from Brazil

1

> Different industries with different successfactors require different strategies for growth

. .

Anheuser-BuschInBev

#1 Brewery 80%

> However, there is one common pattern forsuccessfully becoming a global leader

First creating a national champion in

JBS #1 Food Products 33%

Cosan #1 Sugar Cane & Ethanol 55%

Brazil Then, based on a strong national

footprint, pursuing global expansion

Embraco #1 Compressors N.A.

Marco olo #1 Bus Bod Buildin 39% > The global leaders cannot and will not standstill looking for global opportunities,reinventing their business models and

Vale #2 Mining 83%

47

Source : Thomson Reuters, Annual reports

Embraer #3 Aerospace CommercialPlanes

96%

1) 2008 values

CONCLUSION


48/49

CONCLUSION

Brazil creating the future with itsentre reneurial s irit and coura e

"By itself, resolution is anact of courage and, if it

develops into a personaltrait, becomes a habit ofthe soul"

Carl Philipp Gottfried

48

von Clausewitz


49/49

Hauke Moje Rodrigo Dantas

Corporate Strategy Financial Services

Portfolio Management,

Mergers & Acquisitions,Post Merger Integration

Head of Financial Services

and Co-Managing Partner ofBrazilian Office

,04543-906 So Paulo I Brazil

Phone +55 11 3046-7039Fax +55 11 3046-7222

,04543-906 So Paulo I Brazil

Phone +55 11 3046-7111Fax +55 11 3046-7222

49

Mobile +5511 7203-7222

[email protected]

Mobile +5511 7203-7322

[email protected]

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