the yield of plant variety protection russell thomson swinburne university of technology 1
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
The yield of plant variety protection
Russell ThomsonSwinburne University of Technology
![Page 2: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What government policies are best for farmers and society?
What role can Plant Variety Protection play?
2
Overarching questions:
![Page 3: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Policy Rationale
![Page 4: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Policy evaluation
What information do we need?
![Page 5: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Evidence based policy
5
Public breeding
(free seeds)
Plant Variety
Protection (royalty funded
breeding)
![Page 6: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Australia as a natural experiment
• Historically new wheat varieties bred by government
• 1994 Plant Breeders’ Rights Act
– not motivated by concerns regarding wheat breeding
• 1996 End-Point Royalty system introduced
– Privatization or discontinuation of government breeding
programs
– New private breeders enter market
![Page 7: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Compare output from two business models
Number of varieties released and their ‘performance’
Free seed(government funded)
Royalty funded
VS
![Page 8: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Index of variety performance
• 250 wheat varieties, 1976–2011, (i)• 23 regions (k)
Sources: NVT, historic sowing guides, U Sydney rust program
𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝒊𝒌=𝐘𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝒊𝒌×𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝒊𝒌−𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬𝒊
![Page 9: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Predicted Yield
• National Variety Trial, Multi Environment Trial predicted yields.
• Yield data from historical sowing guides (SG)– Multi-year average relative yield– Scaled by yield of varieties common to both data sets
![Page 10: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Market price indicates qualityGrade classification
Price per tonne
Prime hard $274
Hard $259
Noodle $261
Soft $257
Premium White $242
Standard White $232
General Purpose† $225
Feed $199
• Long run average price of each grade
• AWB pool returns by pay grade (10 year average), 1997/08–2007/08 (A$/tonne)
![Page 11: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Value of rust resistance via representative control costs
Seed Dressing Foliar application CostResistance Rating Fungicide Rate Fungicide Rate Apps Very Susceptible Fluquinazole 450 Expoxiconazole 375 2 $64.25Susceptible Fluquinazole 450 Expoxiconazole 375 1 $38.12Moderately Susceptible
Triadimenol 150 Propiconazole 375 1 $20.04
Moderately Resistant
Triadimenol 150 Triadimefon 750 1 $14.39
Resistant Triadimenol 100 - - - $1.69Very Resistant - - - $0.00
![Page 12: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝒊𝒌=𝐘𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝒊𝒌×𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝒊𝒌−𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬𝒊
![Page 13: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Measuring breeder business model
• Structural shift around policy reform• Private breeder dummy• Share of breeders’ varieties that attract
royalties.
![Page 14: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Control variables
• Hybrid variety• Clearfield• Time trend
• Rainfall• Selection model (Inverse Mills Ratio)
![Page 15: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Main resultChange in business model measured by: Association with
Released after 2000 -7.7 %
Private breeder (t-5) -2.5%
Share of breeders recent varieties that attract end point royalties (t-5) -2.8%
![Page 16: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Result
Varieties released by royalty funded breeders exhibit a lower productivity advantage
• What does this mean?... • Most new varieties below the frontier in most regions anyway.
Result holds when focusing on best varieties in the largest regions.
![Page 17: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
What’s going on?
Theory: • Less knowledge sharing and exchange (spillovers)• Inadequate incentive?
Interviews:• Less sharing of information and germplasm • Commercial imperative to release varieties with no clear
advantage = exactly what I found
![Page 18: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Implications • One study consensus.
• More research is needed but given absence of positive evidence policy should proceed cautiously
• Do PVP provide an adequate incentive? – Stronger PVP or subsidize private breeders?
• Do PVP diminish productivity?– E.g., reduced knowledge / germplasm exchange?
![Page 19: The yield of plant variety protection Russell Thomson Swinburne University of Technology 1](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfc71a28abf838ca7d27/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Thank you for listening