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The “Year Without a Summer” WAS NOT a year without a ring Sco St. George University of Minnesota

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The Tambora eruption of 1815 cooled the planet and caused the "Year Without A Summer" in western Europe and eastern North America. But was it cold enough to cause trees across the Northern Hemisphere to skip a ring?

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Page 1: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

The “Year Without a Summer” WAS NOT

a year without a ringSco! St. George

University of Minnesota

Page 2: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 3: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora is estimated to be the largest volcanic event in recorded history.

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Source: Wikipedia User Indon

Ashfall from the 1815 eruption extended more than 1,300 km away from Tambora.

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Source: Desert Research Institute

Page 6: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Dai et al, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1991

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Sulfate aerosols emi!ed by Pinatubo

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“ ”Atkins, 1887

History of Hawley

Severe frosts occurred [in Massachuse!s] every month; June 7th and 8th snow fell, and it was so cold that crops were cut down, even freezing the roots…

Page 9: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: D’Arrigo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013

Early 19th century temperature observations show 1-2°C cooling in central Europe and the eastern United States between AD 1815 and 1816.

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1816THE “YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER”

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MODELS PROXIES-2°C -1°C

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Michael Mann and colleagues used numerical simulations of climate and tree growth to show that when temperatures fall abruptly for one or two growing seasons, trees in these regions undergo li!le or no growth.

“ ”Nature Geoscience press release

February 2012

Page 15: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

A.D. 1259 A.D. 1816

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“ ”IF NO RING WAS FORMED IN A GIVEN YEAR, THAT CREATES A FURTHER COMPLICATION,

INTRODUCING AN ERROR IN THE CHRONOLOGY ESTABLISHED BY

COUNTING RINGS BACK IN TIME.

Dr. Michael Mann Penn State News, February 6, 2012

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‘LOCALLY-ABSENT’ RING

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The cambium of trees of many species may be locally dormant, in the sense that no new cells are produced, throughout one or more growing seasons.“ ”

Edmund Schulman Ecology, 1941

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1809 1811 181218081807

Source: Sarah Appleton

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Page 22: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

?COULD

THE GLOBAL TREE-RING NETWORK CONTAIN

WIDESPREAD (BUT UNRECOGNIZED)

‘MISSING’ RINGS?

Page 23: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Large sets of ring-width data have provided the foundation for many proxy estimates of regional or global surface temperature.

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5, Working Group 1

Page 24: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Cook et al., Science, 2010

The Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas generated yearly maps of drought severity based on ring-width and other tree-ring measurements.

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Source: Meko et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2007

Surrogate estimates of discharge have been used to produce ‘worst-case’ scenarios for water supplies in major western rivers, including the Colorado.

Page 26: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

±0

Page 27: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 28: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

BEvidence against the ‘missing ring’ hypothesis

Page 29: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

OTHER CHRONOLOGICAL

EVIDENCE

BOREAL TREES AND MISSING RINGS

EXTRATERRESTRIALCONFIRMATION

Page 30: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

AThe Northern Hemisphere tree-ring network

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Page 38: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

PinusPicea

QuercusPseudotsuga

Larix

NothofagusAustrocedrisPhyllocladus

Agathis

Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014

The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records from every continent except Antarctica.

Page 39: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Phil Camill

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Source: Uday Kunwar Thapa

Page 41: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
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Fri!s, H.C. Growth-rings of trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).

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-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8

correlation coefficient (ring-width vs. local climate)

Page 44: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

(a) Winter precipitation

(b) Summer precipitation

(c) Summer temperature

-0.8 +0.8-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6

WINTER PRECIPITATION

Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014

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Page 46: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Kevin Anchukaitis

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Page 48: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

(a) Winter precipitation

(b) Summer precipitation

(c) Summer temperature

-0.8 +0.8-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6

SUMMER TEMPERATURE

Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014

Page 49: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 50: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

PinusPicea

QuercusPseudotsuga

Larix

NothofagusAustrocedrisPhyllocladus

Agathis

Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014

The International Tree-Ring Database holds more than 3,200 records from every continent except Antarctica.

Page 51: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

?COULD

THE GLOBAL TREE-RING NETWORK CONTAIN

WIDESPREAD (BUT UNRECOGNIZED)

‘MISSING’ RINGS?

Page 52: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

BEvidence against the ‘missing ring’ hypothesis

Page 53: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

OTHER CHRONOLOGICAL

EVIDENCE

BOREAL TREES AND MISSING RINGS

EXTRATERRESTRIALCONFIRMATION

Page 54: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Adding an ‘absent ring’ to a tree-ring sequence causes the dates of all prior rings to be pushed back by one year.

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Source: Alexandra Witze

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1783THE LAKI (ICELAND) ERUPTION

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Source: St. Thomas Productions

Page 58: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect of the sun's rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greater, there existed a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America.

“ ”Benjamin Franklin

Memoirs of the Literary and Philosophical Society of Manchester, 1784

Page 59: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Across Alaska and northwestern Canada, trees formed wood much less dense than normal during the AD 1783 growing season.

Source: Jacoby et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 1999

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Reconstructed summer temperatures for Alaska (estimated from latewood density) was more than 4 s.d. below the long-term mean.

Source: Jacoby et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 1999

Page 61: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Briffa et al., The Holocene, 2002

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IF 1816 IS MISSING

THEN 1783 ➜ 1782

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Source: Esper et al., Dendrochronologia, 2013

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Source: Esper et al., Dendrochronologia, 2013

If tree-ring records from Europe are shi$ed back one year, their strong correlation with long temperature records disappears.

Page 65: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

OTHER CHRONOLOGICAL

EVIDENCE

BOREAL TREES AND MISSING RINGS

EXTRATERRESTRIALCONFIRMATION

Page 66: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Max Torbenson University of Arkansas

Page 67: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

?HOW OFTEN DO TREES FORM

LOCALLY-ABSENT RINGS AND WHY?

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Page 69: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

1,063 RECORDS HAD AT LEAST ONE

ABSENT RING.

1,296 RECORDS DID NOT HAVE

A SINGLE ABSENT RING.

Page 70: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

1259 1453

1783 1816

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%Intensity of locally-absent rings

1259 1453

1783 1816

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%Intensity of locally-absent rings

Source: St. George et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2013

Page 71: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

PiceaPinus

PseudotsugaQuercusLarix

a

c

# re

cord

s

% re

cord

s

b

18ºN

36ºN

54ºN

72ºN90ºN

120ºW 60ºW 0º 60ºE 120ºE 180ºW180ºW

1000 20001200 1400 1600 1800

2000

1000

0 0%

12%

6%

1000 20001200 1400 1600 1800Year Year

0º

How o$en have locally-absent rings occurred in the Northern Hemisphere tree ring-width network?

Page 72: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

20°N

40°N

60°N

80°N

Latit

ude

Percentage of locally-absent rings

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

b

a

Picea Quercus

Pinus Pseudotsuga

Larix Other genera

1500

1000

500

0

# re

cord

s

Source: St. George et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2013

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Page 74: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

PICEA LARIX(spruce) (larch)

Page 75: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Phil Camill

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134 881TREE-RING ‘YEARS’

ZERO CASESWHERE A GROWTH RING WAS MISSING FROM EVERY TREE AT THE SAME SITE.

Page 77: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

MANY (OR MOST) TEMPERATURE-LIMITED FOREST STANDS

IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WOULD NEED TO SHOW A REACTION

TO THERMAL STRESS THAT HAS (ESSENTIALLY) NEVER BEEN OBSERVED

ANYWHERE.

Page 78: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

OTHER CHRONOLOGICAL

EVIDENCE

BOREAL TREES AND MISSING RINGS

EXTRATERRESTRIALCONFIRMATION

Page 79: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 80: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Miyake et al., Nature, 2012

The 14C content of Japanese cedar tree rings increased by 1.2% from AD 774 to 775.

Page 81: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

We’d expect these [supernovae and superflares] to be global events that would appear in the radiocarbon of any long tree-ring chronology around the world.

“ ”Kevin Anchukaitis

National Geographic, June 7, 2011

Page 82: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 83: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Source: Büntgen et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014

Radiocarbon measurements of a subfossil pine (Pinus cembra) show the same 1.2% increase in 14C from AD 774 to 775.

Page 84: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
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Page 86: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

ALL STUDIES DEMONSTRATE THE PRECISION

OF TREE-RING DATING BACK TO THE

YEAR 775.Büntgen et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014

“ ”

Page 87: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring
Page 88: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

MODELS PROXIES-2°C -1°C

Page 89: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

None of this is to say that there are not challenges associated with using tree ring proxies to identify and evaluate the timing and environmental consequences of volcanic eruptions.

“ ”D’Arrigo et al., 2013

Journal of Geophysical Research

Page 90: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

?COULD

THE GLOBAL TREE-RING NETWORK CONTAIN

WIDESPREAD (BUT UNRECOGNIZED)

‘MISSING’ RINGS?

Page 91: The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Mount Tambora The Year Without Summer

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