the wwrp forecast demonstration project map d-phase on flood forecasting in the alps

The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood

forecasting in the Alps

Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach

Presentation: Saskia Willemse, MeteoSwiss

Technical Conference preceding CAS XV

16-17 November 2009, Incheon, South Korea

MAP D-PHASE FDP | Technical Conference preceding CAS XV, Incheon, 16-17 November 2009Saskia Willemse (saskia.willemse [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Outline

• D-PHASE essentials• Key elements and characteristics• Achievements and outreach• Lessons learned & future developments


D-PHASE essentials

• Forecast Demonstration Project for MAP

• 2nd WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP)

• Focus on heavy precipitation and flood forecasting

• D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region

• D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP): June to November 2007 (COPS & “MAP season”)

• 9 countries involved

• 30 atmospheric models / 7 hydrological models in over 40 catchments


Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system

Medium range

Short range

Now-casting


Key elements of D-PHASE

• Centralised Visualisation Platform (forecasts & alerts; in real-time);

• Data archiving ( COPS);

• Nowcasting tools;

• Systematic integration of end users;

• Evaluation, objective and subjective.


8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time

Overview: Is there any alert? Where?


8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time

More details: Which models alert?


Key characteristics of D-PHASE

• Same look and feel for all models (colour coding etc.) joint alert definitions same script to determine alerts same programs for plots

• Full information is provided to the end user; the diversity of forecasts is visible

• Hierarchical layout allowing to zoom in –from an overview to the details


8.8.2007, ~ 15:00 local time

Same plots (variables, colour coding, …) for all models


Achievements

• Unprecedented data set model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR)

• Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models

JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set


Achievements• Participation of users

45 end users institutions (civil protection ...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs

• Scientific results advances in ensemble hydrological modelling radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, …. 21 peer reviewed papers 72 reports and ext. abs. 165 presentations BAMS Paper, Sept 2009


Achievements

• Findings high resolution atmospheric

models prove better importance of ensemble

modelling Single-model ensemble

substantially gains from calibration

value of ‘ensemble observations’ (radar ensemble)

resolved conv.param. conv.

Rel

ativ

e va

lue


Outreach

• D-PHASE/COPS data set as testbed for COST / HEPEX, IMRE

• D-PHASE as role model for Swiss natural hazards platform (GIN) VP still up and running until GIN goes life….

• Many operational hydrological services started to use model-based input (I, CH, D)

• Funded research projects Priority Programme QPF (several) FP7 Imprints Austrian Science Foundation (VERITA) FOEN, Switzerland Univ Hamburg funding


End users feedback• Resolution needs to further increase (and will)• Take end users early on board• EPS’s need careful support (for interpretation)• ‘Ensemble thinking’ for air pollution modelling, heat wave

warnings, health impact (e.g., pollen), …


Interoperability• International agreements needed (procedures, thresholds)

• Multi-model availability by far exceeds multi-model use…

• In the transformation to operations the commercial value of meteorological data is a barrier


Future FDP‘s• Finances• Ways of dissemination within WMO / member countries• ‘increase involvement of users and NMHSs from

developing countries in future FDP’s...’• Themes / activity: WWRP could also propose themes


Meteo-Swiss ARPA-

SIMC

Uni Wien

Uni Brescia

ARPAVeneto

WSL

MétéoFrance

ISAC-CNR

MetOffice

Uni PaulSabatier

ETHZ

ZAMG

DLR

Uni Hohenheim

AEMet

CNMCA

ARPALiguria

IMK-IFU

EnvCanada

BAFU

ARPALombardia

POLIMI

LUBW

ARPAPiemonte

WWAKempten

APAT

Data Provider

OperationalService

UniversityRes. Inst.

SRNWP

DWD

Steering Committee & WG chairmen

Thanks!

the wwrp forecast demonstration project map d-phase on flood forecasting in the alps

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