the world nuclear industry status report 2018 (wnisr2018) · 2019. 10. 23. · the world nuclear...
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WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 20191
Mycle SchneiderIndependent Interna*onal Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris
WNISR Convening Lead Author and Publisher
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 (WNISR2018)www.WorldNuclearReport.org
”Nuclear Power: Asset or Barrier for the Energy TransiGon?”Heinrich Böll S*Cung EU – Greens-EFA in the European Parliament
Representa9on of the State of Baden-Wür@emberg to the EU, 5 February 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – WORLD FLEET
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10
15
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20182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 2018
Reactor Shutdowns
China Rest of the WorldReactor Startups
All Countries (No Chinese in Total)
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
EU28 – STARTUPS AND SHUTDOWNS
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15
182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601956
-10
-5
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10© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28in Units, from 1956 to 2018
YearlyBalance
Reactor Startups
Reactor Shutdowns
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – WORLD FLEET
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
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0
100
200
300
400
500
Operable capacity
20192015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
2002Maximum Numberof Reactors: 438
1/2019367 GWe
415 Reactors 1989
312 GWe420 Reactors
2006Maximum OperatingCapacity: 368 GWe
Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the World in Units and GWe, from 1954 to 1/2019
Reactors in Operation
Operating Capacity
Units GWe
0
100
200
300
400
GWe
7/1820152010200520001995 7/18
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Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
EU28 – OPERATING REACTORS/CAPACITY
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50
100
150
Operable capacity
1820152010200520001995199019851980197519701965196019560
50
100
150
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 2018
Reactors in Operation
Operating Capacity
Units GWe
12/2018118 GWe
126 Reactors
1989124.4 GWe
177 Reactors
2000Maximum Operating
Capacity: 136.8 GWe 1988
Maximum Number of Reactors: 177
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER
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2000
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17201520102005200019951990 0
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1500
2000
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17201520102005200019951990
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Nuclear Electricity Production 1990-2017In the World...in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)
...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net)
1996Maximum : 17.5%
TWh
Sharein %
2017Production: 2,503 TWh
Share:10.3%
2006Maximum:
2,660 TWh
TWh
2015-2017Since 2014, without China's contribution,
world nuclear production has declined.In 2017, it increased by 1% globally, but
fell by 0.4% outside ChinaNuclear Share
Nuclear ElectricityProduction
ChinaRest ofthe World
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
2014
800 600 400 200 0
Armenia
Netherlands
Argentina
Slovenia
Iran
Pakistan
Mexico
Romania
Slovakia
Brazil
Bulgaria
South Africa
Hungary
Switzerland
Taiwan
Finland
Czech Rep.
Japan
India
Belgium
Spain
Sweden
UK
Germany
Ukraine
Canada
South Korea
Russia
China
France
USA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Iran
Brazil
Netherlands
India
Japan
China
Argentina
Mexico
Pakistan
South Africa
Taiwan
Germany
Canada
Romania
Russia
UK
USA
Spain
South Korea
Armenia
Czech Rep.
Finland
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Sweden
Belgium
Hungary
Slovakia
Ukraine
France
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
2005
2002
2003
1986
2014
1996
2005
1996
1986
2009
1987
2013
1989
1997
1995
2015
2009
1994
1988
1989
1989
1990
2017
1986
2001
1998
201520102005
1994
2001
1999
2004
2001
1999
1998
2007
2017
2015
2011
2017
Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production
TWh Percentage
20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION
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(Top 21)
2014
800 600 400 200 0
Armenia
Netherlands
Argentina
Slovenia
Iran
Pakistan
Mexico
Romania
Slovakia
Brazil
Bulgaria
South Africa
Hungary
Switzerland
Taiwan
Finland
Czech Rep.
Japan
India
Belgium
Spain
Sweden
UK
Germany
Ukraine
Canada
South Korea
Russia
China
France
USA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Iran
Brazil
Netherlands
India
Japan
China
Argentina
Mexico
Pakistan
South Africa
Taiwan
Germany
Canada
Romania
Russia
UK
USA
Spain
South Korea
Armenia
Czech Rep.
Finland
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Sweden
Belgium
Hungary
Slovakia
Ukraine
France
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
2005
2002
2003
1986
2014
1996
2005
1996
1986
2009
1987
2013
1989
1997
1995
2015
2009
1994
1988
1989
1989
1990
2017
1986
2001
1998
201520102005
1994
2001
1999
2004
2001
1999
1998
2007
2017
2015
2011
2017
Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production
TWh Percentage
20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
GLOBAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
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WNISR2018
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GLOBAL OVERVIEW — CONSTRUCTIONS
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Nuclear Reactors “Under Construc2on” (as of 1 July 2018)
Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION TIMES
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Reactor Construc-on Times of 55 Units Started-up 2008–7/2018
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 2018
WNISR2018
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CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELATIONS
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GLOBAL OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CHINA
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
GLOBAL OVERVIEW – OPERATING AGE
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Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
as of 1 July 2018
0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over
Reactor Age
50 Number of Reactors by Age Class
Age of World Nuclear Fleet
413 reactorsMean Age:29.9 years
54
35
70
177
77
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
EU28– OPERATING AGE
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
as of 1 July 2018
0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over
Reactor Age
50 Number of Reactors by Age Class
Age of EU Nuclear Fleet
125 reactorsMean Age:33.4 years
16
28
78
12
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
US FOCUS – 18 EARLY CLOSURES ANNOUNCED 2009-2025
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Sour
ces:
Vario
us so
urce
s com
pile
d by
WNI
SR
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
WindUtility Scale Solar (²)Gas - Combined CycleCoalNuclear
2017 11.0
2016 10.0
2015 9.0
2014 8.0
2013 7.0
2012 6.0
2011 5.0
2010 4.0
2009 3.0
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹)
20%
-8%
-27%-86%-67%
Lazard LCOE VersionsSources: Lazard Es)mates, 2017
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Brussels, 5 February 2019
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201720142012201020082006200420022000
0
2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net
Wind
Solar Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 1997
in TWh/year
167
-23
3
226
2535
221
285
334
399
497
450
252
66
22
100
178
137
302
399
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World
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100
5 33
259327
442366
180294
289
397
241 239
512
51121
948
820
634
264
1 111
Nuclear(excl. LTO)
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 2018
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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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0
201720142012201020082006200420022000
0
2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 1997
in TWh/year
-16-6
94
-17
-19
21
51
93
127
155
140
35
22
66
8071
100106
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU
37
126
9775
245231
296
355
-47
45
-42
79
-32
60
-91
71
423
1089786
46
120
Nuclear(excl. LTO)
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 2018
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201720142012201020082006200420022000 2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Electricity Productionin TWh/year
363 374
327
370 361 385353
3057
221
417
515
468
103
22
66
101178
227
400
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World
6 21
260101
328443
2 6302 553
2 661
2 5052 346
2 4442 503
133
276342
524646
959832
63
1 123
Nuclear (excl. LTO)
350
2 264
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 2018
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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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Sources: DOE-EIA, 2018
201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 2000
in net added TWh
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual Production2000-2017in net TWh
26
10
3543
53
15
51
12
68
29
89
115
162
176 185
249
221
135
1728
38
54
76
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments in the United States 2000-2017
1055
30
77
770
754
764
806788 807 805
18
95
34
141191
254
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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000Non-hydro renewablesHydroCoal
GasOilNuclear
201720152013201120092007
>3 000
>1 5001 470
980
-110 -200
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Power Generation in the WorldAnnual Production Compared to 2007 in added TWh by Source
Sources: BP StaBsBcal Review 2018
WNISR2018
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NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
22
201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe
Wind
Solar Nuclear
Production in TWh/year
2 8713 19
27
35
18
46
97
132
164
149
77
7
28
44
78
131
Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in China 2000-2017
4 16
44
24
62
108124
16
6650
161
198
233
28
70
96
141156
237
186
4
286
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 2018
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201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
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Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe Wind
Solar Nuclear
Production in TWh/year
3
2
4 5
6
2
6
10
13
20
25
33
29
16
1 35
9
19
Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in India 2000-2017
0.8 1.4
2.8 6.64.9
11.6
21.520
29
14
18
15
30
35
3
9
1419
24
43
27
33
53
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
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Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 2018
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CONCLUSIONS
24
• Small increase of nuclear power genera@on essen@ally due to China.• Long-term decline of nuclear power’s role con@nues.• Cost differen@al between nuclear and renewables s@ll increases.• Nine of 31 nuclear countries generate more power with renewables than nuclear.• Nuclear power capacity addi@ons are insignificant in global market (1 GW/257 GW net in 2017). Nuclear power becomes irrelevant.• Reactor construc@on starts down from 15 in 2010 to 5 in 2018; no commercial reactor building started in China since 2016.• Nuclear power is a species on way of ex@nc@on. Renewal rate too small for survival.• Decommissioning in early stages, only 10 of 174 closed sites at greenfield status.• New-build—and increasingly exis@ng nuclear—is more expensive (€/MWh) than solar/wind and is therefore contribu@ng to climate change.• Exis@ng nuclear is a very powerful innova@on barrier see Germany vs. Japan.
Mycle Schneider Consulting
Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France.
From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 15 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 30+ years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries.Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs.In 1997, he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award (“Alternative Nobel Prize”).
ThankYou! Contact: [email protected] www.WorldNuclearReport.org