the world is changing…so is m&g global basics€œthe age of turbulence -adventures in a new...
TRANSCRIPT
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A dramatically changing world…
“Economic freedom has unleashed billions
of people to pursue the imperatives of their
nature – to work toward better lives for
themselves and their families.”
Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve
“The Age of Turbulence - Adventures in a New World” 2007
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M&G Global Basics Fund
Housing / urbanisationHousing / urbanisation
Economic development
Time
Basic infrastructureBasic infrastructure
Branded goodsBranded goods
Consumer goodsConsumer goods
Travel and transportTravel and transport
Raw materialsRaw materials
Food / agricultureFood / agriculture
EnvironmentEnvironment
LifestyleLifestyle
The 20-year plan - moving up the ‘Global Basics’ curve
2000
2020
2008
Identifying long-term shifts in the global economy
M&G Global Basics launched
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The potential of the emerging consumer
China has 150 cities with a population
of over 1m people… compared to
Europe with 36 and the US with 9
Only 4% of the Chinese urban
population has travelled
overseas
Car sales in China in 2006
were 10 times those of a
decade before
Only 6% of the Indonesian
population has eaten
chocolate
Per capita energy usage in
China is one twelfth of that
in the United States
Indians drink an average of 1
litre of wine per year… the
French drink 62 litres
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Food & agriculture
China has 150 cities with a
population of over 1m people…
compared to Europe with
36 and the US with 9
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
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Reduction in commodities based on valuations
Source: CSFB HOLT, January 2008
Rio Tinto vs Sherritt International
High returns recognised by the market Strong returns, pessimistic expectations
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What are we buying and selling on the fund?
Significant purchases
Source: M&G as at 31 December 2007
Constellation Brands
Santos
Sherritt International
Symrise
Fraser & Neave
Linde
EADS
Futuris
Ansell
Norsk Hydro
Aracruz Celulose
Amcol International
Scotts Miracle Gro
Imerys
Schnitzer Steel
Significant sales
Rio Tinto
Chevron
CSR
Agrium
K+S
Coles
Impala Platinum
Groupe Danone
Holcim
Cabot
Siemens
Rolls-Royce
BG Group
Sibir Energy
Purchases and sales in 2007
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M&A activity since launch
Economic development
Time
M&G Global Basics Fund
Activity is increasingly occurring further up the curve
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What can derail this scenario?
Money supply Circulation
At the macroeconomic level
Investment opportunities
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What areas are we avoiding in 2008?
• Japan
• Financials
• Companies with excessive leverage
• Retailers
• Chinese equities
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What do we expect for 2008?
• Remain upbeat on global demand
– In spite of problems such as sub-prime / credit crunch in the U.S.
• Another year of major divergence of returns for individual sectors
– Stock/sector-based investment approach should yield better results than index investing
• Continue to move away from traditional areas (e.g. Japan, US) towards areas where we see the greatest potential for the next decade
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Performance
1 year 3 years 5 years Since inception % % (pa) %(pa) %(pa)*
M&G Global Basics Fund -2.2 17.5 22.0 10.8
FTSE World Composite Index -3.9 11.5 13.6 2.7
Equity Global sector average -11.0 6.6 9.1 -4.2
Quartile 1 1 1 1
Source: Morningstar, German database, Equity Global Sector, as at 31 January 2008, in euro, share A class, net income reinvested bid to bid * Launch date 17 November 2000
Number 1 fund out of 303 global equities funds since launch
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Geographic split
Geographic split Portfolio %
US 31.8
Australia 17.2
France 16.2
UK 15.0
Germany 3.8
Canada 3.6
Singapore 2.4
Ireland 1.8
Austria 1.4
Hong Kong 1.3
Other 5.5
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 January 2008
'Emerging’ market exposure through established ‘western’ companies
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Sector breakdown
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 January 2008
Basic materials 39.7 14.5 25.2
Healthcare 4.6 0.0 4.6
Consumer goods 23.6 21.8 1.8
Financials 0.1 0.0 0.1
Industrials 17.1 23.3 -6.2
Consumer services 4.0 11.9 -7.9
Utilities 1.4 9.5 -8.1
Oil & gas 8.5 19.1 -10.6
Cash 1.0 0.0 1.0
Sector Fund % Index % Relative %
Broad spread of ‘basic’ industries and companies
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10 largest holdings
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 January 2008
Eramet 5.6 0.0 France Basic materials
Tullow Oil 3.7 0.1 UK Oil & gas
Lonmin 3.5 0.1 UK Basic materials
Constellation Brands 3.3 0.0 US Consumer goods
Bluescope Steel 3.3 0.0 Australia Basic materials
Sims 3.2 0.0 Australia Industrials
Johnson Matthey 3.2 0.1 UK Basic materials
EADS 3.0 0.1 France Industrials
FMC 2.7 0.0 US Basic materials
Imerys 2.7 0.0 France Industrials
Stock Fund % Index % Country Description
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Capitalisation split
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 January 2008
Capitalisation tier Fund % Index % Relative %
Mega Cap ($50bn +) 3.2 34.8 -31.6
Large Cap ($10-$50bn) 21.2 42.1 -20.9
Mid Cap ($2-$10bn) 53.4 20.3 33.1
Small Cap (<$2bn) 21.1 2.8 18.3
Cash 1.0 0.0 1.0
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A plethora of investment opportunities
Purchases Agrana Beteiligungs
Arkema
Bluescope Steel
HK & Shanghai Hotels
EADS
PZ Cussons
Coates Hire
Johnson Matthey
Yamaha Motor
Chaoda Modern Agric.
Kerry Group
Ansell
Wienerberger
VF Corp
Pilgrim’s Pride
Fraser & Neave
Constellation Brands
Symrise
Elizabeth Arden
Futuris
Sales BG Group
BHP Billiton
Impala Platinum
First Quantum Minerals
Rio Tinto
CVRD
Falconbridge
Tate & Lyle
Abbot Group
Chevron Corp
Source: M&G information
Ongoing portfolio diversification
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Returns are being transformed by external developments
Source: CSFB HOLT, January 2008
Eramet Peabody Energy
Wienerberger Yamaha Motor
Across a wide range of ‘basic’ companies
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“The world is due to consume more metals
and minerals over the next 25 years than in
the whole of its previous history”
Chip Goodyear, ex-CEO BHP Billiton
Dublin, May 2007
Demand for commodities will be a lasting
phenomenon
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Company visits
G. French and M. Vaight
November 2005
7 company visits (South Africa, Zambia, Congo)
C. Filott & S. Rhodes
May 2007, 10 company visits
C. Filott, M. Godfrey, secondment in Hong Kong and regional company visits, Nov 2006
G. French
November 2007
company visits (Australia)
Team visit, German company meetings,August 2006
M. Godfrey & M. VaightMay 200642 company visits
A. Smith, G. Aldridge, C. D’Olier& C. Filott, July 2007
10 company meetings
S. Rhodes, ChinaCompany visits, Sept 2006
G. French & M. VaightMay 200712 company meetings (Dublin)
S. Rhodes & M. Vaight
May 2007, 22 company visits (Canada)
G. Aldridge & M. Godfrey
March 2007 24 company visits (Hong Kong)
G. French
April 2007
site visits (Sri Lanka)M. Vaight, M. Godfrey & S. RhodesAugust 2007 Brazil & Mexico26 company visits
A. Smith, D. Madams Japan18 Company visits, Nov 2006
A. Smith & D. Madams, FranceSeptember 20075 company visits
M. Vaight, M. GodfreyNov 2007 Malaysia, Singapore & HK
G. French &
M. Vaight
October 2007
1 company visit
‘On the ground’ fundamental analysis
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Lifestyle trends
• Manufactures and distributes a large portfolio of wines, beers & spirits
• Exposed to the trend of growing wine consumption in developed markets
• Sustainable business model supported by strong distribution capabilities and marketing expertise
• Good returning company in a consolidating market
Stock example – Constellation Brands
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Consumer goods
• Japan based manufacturer and distributor of motorcycles, marine engines, boats and all-terrain vehicles
• After restructuring and consolidation of its businesses the company is now executing a strategy of profitable growth
• Held within the fund since September 2007. A classic ‘basic’ company set to benefit from the emergence of a consumer market in developing economies
Stock example – YAMAHA Motor Co
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Branded goodsStock example – Elizabeth Arden
• Global beauty products company with a range of prestige fragrances, skin care and cosmetics brands
• Unilever sold the company in 2001 to French Fragrances who subsequently changed the name to Elizabeth Arden
• The company's strategy of growing into new markets fits the fund managers theme of companies benefiting from the emergence of consumer markets in developing countries
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• Selecting stocks on the basis of their index weighting
• Short-term trading strategies
• Changing our investment principles if they’re out of fashion
• Following market consensus
• Selecting stocks on the basis of their index weighting
• Short-term trading strategies
• Changing our investment principles if they’re out of fashion
• Following market consensus
Our core values
• Increasing the real value of our investors’ wealth over the long term
• Active, consistent, long only investment management
• Culture of integrity and original thinking
• Adding value by focusing on whatwe know
• Increasing the real value of our investors’ wealth over the long term
• Active, consistent, long only investment management
• Culture of integrity and original thinking
• Adding value by focusing on whatwe know
We believe in… We don’t believe in…
Committed to preserving our investment principles
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This financial promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited supplied for your use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. This document is designed for investment
professionals’ use only.
M&G Investment Funds (1) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC 110 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 6 June 2001. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec 132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 390. The following sub-funds only are registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G American, M&G Global Basics, M&G Global Leaders, M&G European, M&G Pan European, M&G European Smaller Companies, M&G International Growth, M&G Japan Fund, M&G Japan Smaller Companies, M&G North American Value and M&G Asian. The Fund in registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 4 September 2007. M&G Investment Funds (2) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC000116 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 1 August 2001. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G UK Growth.M&G Investment Funds (3) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC000117 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 8 August 2001. The Fund is an open-ended fund under English law and has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for the Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20 December 1985 (Directive 85/611/EEC, as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act, and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. .In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 391. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G Recovery. The Fund in registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 4 September 2007.M&G Investment Funds (6) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC 490 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from17 November 2006. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec 132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. .In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 490. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G Optimal Income. The Fund in registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 11 September 2007.M&G Investment Funds (7) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC000552 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 3 July 2007. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. The Fund is registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 4 September 2007.Neither the Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) nor the single sub-funds are subject to the supervision of a German, Austrian, Italian, Swiss, Luxembourg, French or Spanish supervisory authority.This information is not an offer or solicitation of an offer for the purchase of investment shares in one of the Funds referred to herein. Purchases of a Fund should be based on the current prospectus. This prospectus, simplified prospectus, annual report and subsequent semi-annual report, are available free of charge from the ACD: M&G Securities Limited, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH, GB, or one of the following: M&G International Investments Ltd., Niederlassung Deutschland, Joachimstaler Straße 10-12, D-10719 Berlin, M&G International Investments Limited, 90 avenue des Champs Elysées, F-75008 Paris, J.P. Morgan AG, Junghofstr 14, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien, J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., 5 Rue Plaetis, L-2338 Luxembourg, Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen dell’Alto Adige S.p.A, via Laurin 1, I-39100 Bolzano, First Independent Fund Services, Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zürich, Allfunds Bank, C/Nuria, 57, Mirasierra, E-28034 Madrid or from the French centralising agent of the Fund: RBC Dexia Investors Services Bank France.You should read the prospectus before subscribing. The information given herein originates from M&G International Investments Ltd. to the extent no other source is disclosed. Information sourced from a third party has been copied without any verification and M&G International Investments Ltd does not assume any liability. The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent advice. For information on investment risk relating to these funds please see the prospectus. High yield bonds are more risky than ordinary bonds and investors in funds which invest in such bonds may see the value of their investment fluctuate more widely. Single market funds may experience higher volatility than funds with a wider exposure to different markets. The value of your investment may go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate movements. Past performance is no guide to future performance. The repayment of the capital invested is not guaranteed. Telephone calls may be recorded.Published by M&G International Investments Ltd. (Registered Office: Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH) authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.