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Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: PAD1338

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

FROM THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

IN THE AMOUNT OF EURO 11.2 MILLION

(US$13.9 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

AND A

PROPOSED GRANT

FROM THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 9.6 MILLION

(US$13.9 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF MALI

FOR AN

ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL REHABILITATION OF THE NIGER RIVER PROJECT

FEBRUARY 21, 2018

Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice

Africa Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official

duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective Jan 31, 2018)

Currency Unit = US$1

US$1 = SDR 0.70

US$1 = EUR 0.80289091

FISCAL YEAR

July 1 ‐ June 31

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Soukeyna Kane

Senior Global Practice Director: Karin Erika Kemper

Practice Manager: Benoit Bosquet

Task Team Leader(s): Hocine Chalal, Cheick Omar Tidiane Diallo

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ABFN Niger River Basin Agency (Agence de Bassin du Fleuve Niger)

CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component

COMANAV Malian Navigation Company (Compagnie Malienne de Navigation)

CPF Country Partnership Framework

CSO Civil Society Organization

DA Designated Account

DFM Directorate of Finance and Material Assets (Direction de Finance et du Matériel)

DNACPN National Directorate for Sanitation, Control of Pollution, and Harmful Substances (Direction Nationale de l’Assainissement, du Contrôle des Pollutions et des Nuisances)

DNH National Waterworks Directorate (Direction Nationale de l’Hydraulique)

DNTTMF National Directorate for Land, Maritime, and Fluvial Transportation (Direction Nationale des Transports Terrestres, Maritimes et Fluviaux)

DRACPN Regional Directorate for Sanitation, Control of Pollution, and Harmful Substances (Direction Régionale de l’Assainissement, du Contrôle des Pollutions et des Nuisances)

ERR Economic Rate of Return

ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment

ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework

ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan

FM Financial Management

IFR Interim Financial Report

IWT Inland Water Transport

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MEADD Ministry of Environment, Sanitation and Sustainable Development (Ministère de l’Environnement, de l’Assainissement et du Développment Durable)

NBA Niger River Basin Authority

NCB National Competitive Bidding

NGO Nongovernmental Organization

NID Niger Inner Delta

NPV Net Present Value

O&M Operation and Maintenance

OP Operational Policy

PDO Project Development Objective

PDSEC Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Programs (Programmes de Développement Economique, Social, et Culturel)

PIM Project Implementation Manual

PIU Project Implementation Unit

PIV Village Irrigated Perimeter (Périmètre irrigué du village)

PP Procurement Plan

PPA Project Preparation Advance

PPR Post Procurement Review

PREEFN Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River Project (Projet de Réhabilitation Economique et Environnementale du Fleuve Niger)

PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

PSC Project Steering Committee

PST2 Second Transport Sector Project

PTCCM Project Technical Committee for Coordination and Monitoring

PV Present Value

RAMSAR International Convention for the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Wetlands

RAP Resettlement Action Plan

RPF Resettlement Policy Framework

SDI Spatial Data Infrastructure

WAEMU West African Economic Monetary Union

The World Bank

Mali ‐ Economic & Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River (P151909)

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BASIC INFORMATION

Is this a regionally tagged project? Country(ies) Financing Instrument

No

Investment Project Financing

[ ] Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints

[ ] Financial Intermediaries

[ ] Series of Projects

Approval Date Closing Date Environmental Assessment Category 14‐Mar‐2018 15‐Sep‐2023 A ‐ Full Assessment

Bank/IFC Collaboration

No

Proposed Development Objective(s) The objectives of the Project are to demonstrate the effectiveness of navigation and port service improvement measures, and demonstrate the feasibility of environmental restoration and livelihood improvement activities at targeted sites in the Niger Inner Delta (NID), and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, improve the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and effectively to such Eligible Crisis or Emergency. Components Component Name Cost (US$, millions)

Strengthening the Strategic Management of the Niger River Resources 11.00

Enhancing Viability of Socio‐Economic Activities Contributing to Climate Change Resilience

11.80

Project management 5.00

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Contingent Emergency Response 0.00

Organizations Borrower :

Ministry of Finance

Implementing Agency : Agence de Bassin du Fleuve Niger

PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)

FIN_SUMM_NEW SUMMARY

Total Project Cost 27.80

Total Financing 27.80

Financing Gap 0.00

DETAILSPUB_FIN_DETAIL

International Development Association (IDA) 27.80

IDA Credit 13.90

IDA Grant 13.90 Expected Disbursements (in US$, millions)

Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Annual 0.00 7.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 0.80

Cumulative 0.00 7.00 12.00 18.00 23.00 27.00 27.80

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INSTITUTIONAL DATA

Practice Area (Lead)

Environment & Natural Resources

Contributing Practice Areas

Transport & Digital Development

Climate Change and Disaster Screening

This operation has been screened for short and long‐term climate change and disaster risks

Gender Tag Does the project plan to undertake any of the following? a. Analysis to identify Project‐relevant gaps between males and females, especially in light of country gaps identified through SCD and CPF Yes b. Specific action(s) to address the gender gaps identified in (a) and/or to improve women or men's empowerment Yes c. Include Indicators in results framework to monitor outcomes from actions identified in (b) Yes

SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK‐RATING TOOL (SORT)

Risk Category Rating

1. Political and Governance High

2. Macroeconomic Substantial

3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial

4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial

5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial

6. Fiduciary Substantial

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7. Environment and Social Substantial

8. Stakeholders Moderate

9. Other High

10. Overall High

COMPLIANCE

Policy

Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [✔] No

Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[ ] Yes [✔] No

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No

Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 ✔ Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 ✔ Forests OP/BP 4.36 ✔

Pest Management OP 4.09 ✔ Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 ✔ Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 ✔

Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 ✔ Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 ✔ Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 ✔ Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 ✔

Legal Covenants

Sections and Description Schedule 2 II B 4 (a) Not later than three (3) months after the Effective Date: (i) recruit a financial management

officer acceptable to the Association; (ii) install a computerized accounting software; and (iii) recruit an internal

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auditor acceptable to the Association.

Sections and Description Schedule 2 II B 4 (b) Not later than five (5) months after the Effective Date, recruit an external auditor acceptable

to the Association.

Sections and Description Schedule 2 V C (a) Not later than June 30, 2018, renew and/or extend the ongoing contrat‐plan (contract plan)

(2015‐17) with COMANAV, or execute a new contract with COMANAV, on terms and conditions acceptable to the

Association, for the regular and systematic maintenance of the navigable channels along the NID.

Sections and Description Schedule 2 V D 2 No port or port facilities shall be deemed eligible for construction or rehabilitation under Part

B.2 of the Project unless there has been an Asset Transfer Agreement duly executed between the Recipient and

the Commune for the transfer of assets associated with such port or port facilities, or there has been progress,

deemed satisfactory to the Association, made towards the conclusion of such an Asset Transfer Agreement.

Sections and Description Schedule 2 I D 2 For the purposes of any Subproject, and prior to implementation thereof, the Recipient shall

ensure that any Subproject‐specific safeguard instrument required, whether in terms of ESIA, ESMP, ESMF or RPF,

or otherwise, shall be duly prepared in form and substance satisfactory to the Association, and, except as

otherwise agreed with the Association, submitted to the Association for review and approval, and thereafter

adopted and locally disclosed.

Sections and Description Schedule 2 I D 4 The Recipient shall take all measures necessary on its part to regularly collect, compile, and

submit to the Association, on a quarterly basis, reports on the status of compliance with the Safeguard

Instruments.

Conditions

Type Description Effectiveness The Project Implementation Manual has been prepared and adopted, in form and

substance satisfactory to the Association.

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PROJECT TEAM

Bank Staff

Name Role Specialization Unit

Hocine Chalal Team Leader(ADM Responsible)

Team Lead GEN06

Cheick Omar Tidiane Diallo Team Leader River Transportation GTD08

Mahamadou Bambo Sissoko

Procurement Specialist(ADM Responsible)

Procurement GGOPF

Boubacar Diallo Procurement Specialist Procurement GGOPF

Tahirou Kalam Financial Management Specialist

Financial Management GGOAW

Anders Jensen Team Member Monitoring and Evaluation GENOS

Arnab Bandyopadhyay Peer Reviewer Transport GTD06

Bougadare Kone Environmental Safeguards Specialist

Environmental Safeguards GEN07

Emeran Serge M. Menang Evouna

Environmental Safeguards Specialist

Tehnical and Safeguards Support

GEN07

Erik Reed Team Member Overall Technical Support GEN07

Fadi M. Doumani Team Member Environmental Economics GEN05

Faly Diallo Team Member Financial WFACS

Fatoumata Diourte Berthe Team Member Team Support AFCW3

Georges Comair Team Member Water Engineer GWA07

Lucienne M. M'Baipor Social Safeguards Specialist Social Safeguards GSU01

Maria Sarraf Peer Reviewer Environmental and Water GEN07

Melissa C. Landesz Team Member Environmental safeguards GEN07

Michel Rogy Team Member Technical and Operational AFCW3

Mustapha Benmaamar Peer Reviewer Transport GTD08

Najat Yamouri Team Member Citizen Engagement GSU01

Nevena Ilieva Team Member Operations Adviser GEN07

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Phillippe George Pereira Guimaraes Leite

Peer Reviewer Social and FCV GSP07

Pierrick Fraval Team Member Rural and Water Engineer GWA07

Renganaden Soopramanien

Counsel Legal Support LEGAM

Sachiko Morita Counsel Legal LEGEN

Sanjay Pahuja Peer Reviewer Water and Transport GWA03

Virginie A. Vaselopulos Team Member Team Support GEN07

Wolfhart Pohl Peer Reviewer Environmental and FCV GEN2A

Extended Team

Name Title Organization Location

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MALI

MALI ‐ ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL REHABILITATION OF THE NIGER RIVER

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................. 10

A. Country Context ............................................................................................................................................. 10

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context .................................................................................................................. 11

C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes ............................................................................. 13

II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................ 14

A. PDO ................................................................................................................................................................. 14

B. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................................... 14

C. PDO‐Level Results Indicators .......................................................................................................................... 14

III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .............................................................................................................................. 15

A. Project Components ....................................................................................................................................... 15

B. Project Cost and Financing ............................................................................................................................. 19

C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................................... 20

IV. IMPLEMENTATION .................................................................................................................................... 22

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements........................................................................................... 22

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ................................................................................................................. 24

C. Sustainability .................................................................................................................................................. 24

D. Role of Partners .............................................................................................................................................. 25

V. KEY RISKS ................................................................................................................................................. 25

A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Key Risks ........................................................................................... 25

VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 27

A. Economic and Financial (if applicable) Analysis ............................................................................................. 27

B. Technical ......................................................................................................................................................... 29

C. Financial Management ................................................................................................................................... 31

D. Procurement .................................................................................................................................................. 31

E. Social (including Safeguards) .......................................................................................................................... 32

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F. Environment (including Safeguards) ............................................................................................................... 32

G. Other Safeguard Policies (if applicable) ......................................................................................................... 34

H. World Bank Grievance Redress ...................................................................................................................... 34

VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING .................................................................................................. 35

ANNEX 1: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION ....................................................................................................... 41

ANNEX 2: IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................................. 79

ANNEX 3: IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT PLAN .................................................................................................. 103

ANNEX 4: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 105

ANNEX 5: MAP OF THE PROJECT AREA ............................................................................................................. 125

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I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT

A. Country Context

1. Mali is a large landlocked country with an estimated population of 18.8 million (2017), situated in the Sahel Region in West Africa. The security situation has been unstable since 2012 due to the rebellion of groups from the northern part of the country. Following the intervention of the international community that resulted in the signing of a Peace and Reconciliation Accord in 2015, the rebellion has significantly subsided in the northern part of the country, but sporadic violence still occurs. Meanwhile, a group which has claimed Al‐Qaida affiliation has emerged in the central Macina/Mopti area and is increasingly involved in violent actions. Local and national political and religious authorities have reacted forcefully to prevent this rebellion from setting in definitively along ethnic and religious lines. The Malian Security Forces have been deployed to return security to the affected areas.

2. Approximately 80 percent of the population is engaged in agricultural activities, including cattle raising and fishing. The performance of the agriculture sector is very dependent on rainfall which, despite having improved in the past few years, remains highly variable and much lower than historical levels overall. There is a relatively strong historical correlation between precipitation and annual gross domestic product, which creates a somewhat precarious context for the Government of Mali (the Government) in managing its fiscal policy in the current context of climate variability. Agriculture, livestock, and fisheries in the flood plains along the rivers crossing the country offer an opportunity to reduce the dependency on rainfall, in particular along the Niger River.

3. The Niger River (4,200 km long) is the third longest river in Africa and the largest in West Africa. The headwaters of the Niger River are located in the Fouta Djallon mountain range in Guinea (2,000 mm annual precipitation); the Niger River crosses Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. A large portion of the river is in the Sahel area (250 mm to 750 mm annual precipitation with a rainy season of three to four months) and in a semiarid area between the Sahara Desert and the Sudanese savannas (750 mm to 1,500 mm annual precipitation with a rainy season of five to seven months). Flowing northeast, the river flow is reinforced by several tributaries until it reaches the Niger Inner Delta (NID) in Mali. The natural flow of the Niger River has been increasingly regulated by the construction of dams primarily for power generation and irrigation purposes.1

1 The potential power production capacity of the Niger River and its tributaries has been estimated at 30,000 GW/h but only 6,000

GW/h have been developed so far, mostly in Nigeria. Several studies have shown that construction of upstream dams might have

negative consequences, particularly threatening livelihoods in the NID, which depend on floods from the Upper Niger. There are

currently five existing dams upstream of the NID: (a) the Selingue dam on the Sankarani tributary; (b) the Soluba dam (a relatively small

hydropower dam); (c) the Markala dam which provides essential irrigation water for the Office du Niger; (d) the Talo dam; and (e) the

Djenne dam on the Bani River, a large tributary of the Niger River (about 40 percent of the total discharge). These dams have already

generated a significant impact on the peak flow reaching the NID, particularly during dry years. Several other large dams are planned for

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4. Climate variability, as a potential indicator for climate change, adds additional stress to the demographic, social and security pressures. In recognition of the effect of climate change on the Sahel in general and in Mali in particular, the proposed Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River Project (Projet de réhabilitation économique et environnementale du fleuve Niger, PREEFN) is an integral part of the Niger Basin Climate Resilience Investment Plan that was presented at COP21 in Paris in December 2015.

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context

5. The NID, located roughly between the Markala dam (near Ségou) and Timbuktu, provides numerous economic benefits. It is an intricate web of channels that provides the main means of transportation for many people, as well as access to markets for the goods produced locally. The NID forms a 20,000 to 30,000 km2 flood plain where many agricultural practices depend heavily upon the amount of water that reaches the area, namely rice and bourgou (type of floating grass used as animal fodder), cattle herding, and fishing. The main economic activities linked to the usage of the Niger River include agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing, construction, businesses using sand and gravel, household uses such as washing and cleaning, pinasses2 for transportation, and commercial agriculture in the ‘Offices’ of Mopti, Ségou, and Niger. The tourism potential of this area is also significant but has remained stunted by the civil strife of the past few years. According to Wetlands International, the NID is a grazing area for 40 percent of the livestock from the northern parts of the country, as well as from neighboring countries during the dry season.

6. The river contributes to the economic well‐being of a local population of about 1.5 million (according to the 2009 census as compared to 1 million in 1976). The majority of this population falls within the 44 percent to 61 percent poverty bracket. Increasing trends of water scarcity have pushed populations in the arid northern parts of the country to be more reliant on the Niger River to meet their needs. The population of the NID is composed of several ethnic groups who live in peace based on ancient rules and practices dating from the Dina period (1818–1862), established by Cheikh Sekou Amadou. These rules and practices often collide with modern land management and tenure systems introduced by the French colonial authorities that are still in effect (Land tenure law of 2000 amended in 2002 and again in 2016). The traditional structure continues to determine how the access to resources is organized, for example, access to fishing is authorized by the Master of Waters (Maître des Eaux) and access to farming and grazing land would be under the authority of the Master of Lands (Maître des Terres). Customary practices allow women to have access to resources through their husbands and/or families but they cannot inherit land, which implies that divorced or abandoned women can lose their lands. In spite of these generally accepted rules of access, violence flares up from time to time, particularly between herders and farmers.

the Niger River. Specifically, the Fomi dam in the headwater area in Guinea may have significant impacts on the NID, depending on the

design options that will be adopted. The World Bank is financing an ongoing study to assess the various options and the corresponding

impacts.

2 Pinasses are local traditional boats that transport goods and passengers on the Niger River. They can reach 150 tons for a draught

between 0.5 and 1 m.

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7. The NID is a unique ecosystem in ecological value. It has been a Convention on Wetlands (RAMSAR)3 site since 2004, hosting a large population of 112 species of migratory and non‐migratory birds as well as endangered mammals such as hippopotamus and manatee. The great variability in rainfall and runoff creates an extensive range of water flow. In the 1970s and 1980s, the region suffered from an extremely severe dry period, and although there was a significant rebound in the rainfall patterns by the mid‐1990s, it never fully reverted to the earlier levels. The models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide inconsistent insight and do not yield a clear view of future trends and even so, only the most optimistic models predict increased rainfall. The highly variable intra‐ and interannual regime of the river is causing damage to its banks in the form of higher erosion that both threatens community livelihoods and exacerbates the sedimentation. A significant amount (between one‐ and two‐thirds, depending on the study) of the water is lost by evaporation and infiltration when passing though the NID.

8. In the face of the above constraints and challenges, the Niger River Basin Agency (Agence de Bassin du Fleuve Niger, ABFN) was established by Ordinance 02‐049 of March 29, 2002 with the mandate to monitor and promote the protection of the Niger River as a vital element of the country and its land and aquatic ecosystems; protect the banks and watersheds against erosion and sedimentation; improve the management of water resources for the different users, including to design and manage an appropriate financial mechanism for tax collection from users and polluters. Its mandate also covers prevention of natural disaster risks such as floods, erosion, drought, combatting pollution, maintaining navigation of the Niger, strengthening the management capacity of the Niger River resources, its tributaries and watersheds, and relations with similar technical entities in neighboring countries.

9. There are other important actors involved in managing the Niger River (see Annex 2) because the issues are multi‐sectoral in nature and because of the decentralized government structure in Mali. Provision of inland water transport (IWT) services is carried out by formal and informal actors in the sector. The formal sector is essentially represented by the Malian Navigation Company (Compagnie Malienne de Navigation, COMANAV), which is a state‐owned river transport company with an increasingly obsolete barge and ferry fleet, and the informal sector is represented by owners and operators of motorized pinasses (traditional wooden boats) and smaller canoes. Generally, COMANAV and the pinasses carry out the long‐distance transport between major river ports along the Niger River. In 2017, the Government enacted Law #2017‐035 (The River Transportation Code) governing the navigation and waterways transportation. The enactment of this law is critical to ensuring safe, effective, and efficient navigation on the Niger River.

10. On some sections of the Niger River, the navigable channels remain obstructed during the navigable period (three to five months per year on average), and the limited amount of labor‐intensive dredging done during the dry season does not adequately address the issue. At present, all regular maintenance/dredging of the river navigation channels is carried out by the National Waterworks Directorate (Direction Nationale de l’Hydraulique, DNH) in a nonsystematic manner (due to financial and human capacity constraints). The DNH work

3 Under RAMSAR 1971, each contracting party undertakes to designate at least one wetland site for inclusion in the List of Wetlands of

International Importance (the ‘RAMSAR List’). There are over 2,000 ‘RAMSAR Sites’ on the territories of over 160 RAMSAR contracting

parties across the world.

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is, in principle, carried out in the context of a revolving three‐year state‐COMANAV contract, which, among other things, is supposed to finance maintenance work on the navigable channels. For the three‐year period (2015–2017), the Government had made available only 35 percent of the agreed amount (CFAF 2.32 billion or about US$3.8 million equivalent) including CFAF 1.12 billion (about US$1.8 million equivalent) for maintenance of channels and river ports construction/rehabilitation). The new contract for the period 2018‐2020 is being negotiated and will be signed in 2018.

11. The local municipalities and collectives are supposed to fund the operations and maintenance (O&M) for the river ports and jetties. In reality, this does not occur because local communes do not have the financial resources or equipment to perform these tasks. The recently closed Second Transport Sector Support Project (P090075 and P121693), financed by the World Bank, supported a model whereby the asset transfer to the communes was carried out under the condition that a private entity would be contracted to collect port fees, manage the port, and share revenues with the communes. Although there is room for improvement, this model seems to be working.

12. The development of the road network has severely affected the competitiveness of IWT on the Niger River as traffic has gradually shifted from river to road. During the colonial era, the Dakar‐Bamako‐Koulikoro railway (1,286 km) and Koulikoro‐Ségou‐Mopti‐Timbuktu‐Gao waterway on the Niger River (about 1,300km) were the key intermodal transport corridors crossing the whole of Mali. With the construction of the main intra/inter‐state roads in Mali and Senegal, such as the Dakar‐Bamako and Bamako‐Ségou‐Mopti‐Gao road corridors, traffic has shifted from IWT to road transport. However, for many communities of the NID, IWT represents a safe and cost‐effective means for transport and access where roads do not necessarily reach or are not always passable. Without major recurrent investments for the Niger River navigable sections upstream (Koulikoro‐Ségou‐Mopti) and downstream (Timbuktu‐Gao), it would be challenging to restore IWT to its former modal share. However, with a well‐targeted program of investments in reducing major navigational choke points and increasing navigability in the central section of the Niger River in Mali, improving some critical river ports combined with an improved institutional framework to ensure the O&M of the navigation channels, IWT could play an important role in the long‐haul movement of bulk commodities and the transportation of people.

C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes

13. This project will contribute to addressing the challenge of food security and poverty reduction while increasing the resilience to climate change and decreasing competition over river resources. It will promote sustainable management of some of the most important functions provided by the river, particularly regarding transportation and water access. The project will also contribute to improving the livelihoods of the beneficiary population. This objective is aligned with the Africa Strategy of the World Bank, particularly through the focus on vulnerability and resilience.

14. The proposed operation is consistent with the Mali Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY16–19 (report No. 94005‐ML) by contributing to its areas of focus: (a) improving governance; (b) creating economic opportunities, particularly in the agriculture sector, and improving basic services through sustainable infrastructure and connectivity; and (c) building resilience. Further, this operation is consistent with the Sahel Regional Initiative and other regional approaches that address collective challenges and transformational

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opportunities. Finally, it is part of the Niger Basin Climate Resilience Investment Plan presented at COP21 in Paris, which is itself an integral part of the World Bank’s Africa Climate Business Plan.

II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

A. PDO

15. The objectives of the project are to demonstrate the effectiveness of navigation and port service improvement measures, and demonstrate the feasibility of environmental restoration and livelihood improvement activities at targeted sites in the Niger Inner Delta (NID), and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, improve the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and effectively to such Eligible Crisis or Emergency.

B. Project Beneficiaries

16. The activities planned under the project will be specifically oriented toward the local population of the NID. The direct beneficiaries include transport operators, village groups, farmers, fishers, youth organizations, women, and vulnerable populations. The communes in the larger project area include approximately 0.5 million inhabitants (roughly 90,000 households), of which 50 percent are women (according to the 2009 census). The project will initially work with the communities in Kolongo, Kokry and Macina, with a total population of about 100,000.

17. In addition to the targeted local communities, beneficiaries will include other subnational actors, including decentralized technical departments (water, transportation, environment, agriculture, livestock, research, and so on), civil society organizations (CSO), associations, and local authorities (municipalities and regions). The project was designed through a participatory approach that included consultations with members of civil society in the areas where prospective investments will be carried out, particularly catering to the more fragile segments of the population, such as women and youth. The project design also takes into consideration the Social, Economic, and Cultural Development Plans (Plans de développement social, économique et culturel, PDSEC), prepared as part of the decentralization process in Mali, which include a vision of how each region will achieve sustainable development.

C. PDO‐Level Results Indicators

18. The following key indicators would be used to evaluate the achievement of the PDO:

Average vessel speed between Diafarabe and Macina (km/hr)

Area restored/developed in the NID through opening of lateral channels (ha)

Local villages with access to improved livelihood activities (number)

Quantity of traffic at ports by COMANAV (average tons/year and people/year)

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III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

19. The project will demonstrate approaches for the reduction of key constraints to IWT, implement measures aimed at decreasing sedimentation and bank erosion in critical spots, and pilot opportunities for improved livelihood of the local population. Project activities will incorporate specific climate change adaptation needs of the targeted sites and will be implemented in a gradual manner due to the need to adapt to the evolving security situation in the project area.

20. The physical interventions of the proposed operation have been adjusted to the security conditions in the NID. Channel dredging/clearing and river ports construction/rehabilitation will be limited to activities that are localized in space and time consistent with security constraints. Livelihoods activities will be undertaken under a pilot approach in selected areas based on an assessment of the security situation, so that scaling‐up could be undertaken in the wider NID under future financing, as security allows.4

21. The project was initially designed and appraised to cover activities between the communes of Macina and Akka. Due to the worsened security situation, it was agreed to reduce the scope of the operation initially, and scale back up when the situation improved. The original appraised scope of the project is presented in Annex 2. The next section describes the activities to be covered under this operation.

A. Project Components

Component 1: Strengthening the Strategic Management of the Niger River Resources (US$11.0 million equivalent)

22. Improving navigability and socioeconomic viability of activities in the NID will depend not only on carrying out works to improve the physical conditions of the river but also the more efficient management of activities, resources, and stakeholders over time and effective monitoring of the ecological functioning of the river. This component will strengthen the monitoring of the ecological functions of the river, particularly in the biodiversity rich area of the NID, through the establishment of an observatory to monitor the ecological functions of the Niger River, as well as through a review of the institutional and regulatory framework for the strategic management and sustainability of the river.

Subcomponent 1.1: Strengthening the environmental monitoring of the Niger River (US$5.5 million)

23. This subcomponent will develop a comprehensive system for knowledge management and a monitoring system for the acquisition and use of information related to the dynamics of the aquatic ecosystems of the Niger River. The creation of the observatory will consolidate and extend the operational environmental services already offered and increase their scope, particularly through the provision of hydrological, climate, and environmental data in Mali. Through this observatory, the Niger River Basin Authority (NBA), in close collaboration with other

4 Annex 2 includes a description of the expanded original approach.

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relevant institutions and entities (DNH and Wetlands International in particular) will be able to generate and use data for ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making.

24. Also under this component, two sets of activities will be carried out: the first one will aim at designing a functional hydrological model for the NID and the second one will be a study of potential infrastructure needs for the improvement of the economic and ecological functions of the NID. This second study will identify infrastructure options that would have medium‐ to long‐term positive impacts on navigability in the NID portion of the river, in particular, as well as on the overall socioeconomic conditions of the population and the biodiversity of the NID. The study will be based on knowledge and assumptions about the future impacts of climate change as well as anthropogenic pressures upstream and downstream of the river. The scenarios will also consider climate change implications over the next 10 to 15 years.

25. This process will be accompanied by a robust communication and public participation plan and citizen engagement program to ensure that relevant stakeholders understand and support the objectives of the observatory and the overarching goal of protecting the Niger River from further degradation.

Subcomponent 1.2: Supporting the strategic management of infrastructure, resources, and stakeholders in the NID (US$5.5 million)

26. In line with the River Transportation Code #2017‐035 mentioned earlier, this subcomponent will support activities to improve the security and financial viability of port infrastructure and the organization of stakeholders using this infrastructure. This will also include a focus on improving the links between sectors, as well as national and subnational entities, such as communes, regarding the management of river resources.

27. Under this subcomponent, the following studies and activities will be prepared and carried out:

Study to review the institutional and regulatory framework and identify measures to improve it by removing sources of inefficiencies, such as overlapping mandates and lack of sustainable revenue streams through application of the polluter and user pay principles;

Technical assistance aimed at formalizing the economic role of pinasses operators;

Provision of technical assistance to strengthen the capacity of the National Directorate for Land, Maritime, and Fluvial Transportation (Direction Nationale des Transports Terrestres, Maritimes et Fluviaux ‐DNTTMF) in the administration of river vessels and to bring new boat construction techniques designed to improve the safety and operation of traditional boats navigating the river, namely: pinasses (light boats) and pirogues (canoes);

Provision of technical advisory services designed to improve the capacity of entities engaged in dredging activities in order to improve their efficiency and environmental performance;

Technical assistance to communes to better manage their port infrastructure;

Design and implementation of a public communication and participation program around the issue of the economic role of the Niger River (particularly with regard to transportation and livelihood activities);

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Feasibility and environmental and social studies and assessments carried out during project preparation (under project advance financing) and accounted in this subcomponent.

Component 2: Enhancing the Viability of Socioeconomic Activities Contributing to Climate Change Resilience (US$11.8 million equivalent)

28. The Niger River is the lifeline of socioeconomic activity in the NID. Improving the socioeconomic conditions of the population living in the targeted communes and villages will include investments that are mutually reinforcing: improving navigability and thus the flow of goods and people and improving access to markets in a way that is environmentally sustainable and socially responsible.

Subcomponent 2.1: Improving river transportation in the NID through targeted dredging and maintenance of navigation channels (US$5.8 million)

29. The NID is increasingly difficult to navigate, a situation that is worsened by the lack of maintenance of the navigable channels. The consequences are a high frequency of boat stranding, a continuous reduction of the navigation period, and an increase in operating costs. To help improve the NID’s navigability, this subcomponent will focus on physical works, notably dredging of sandbars and installing channel markers. By treating the sandbars formed due to the decrease in the flow of the river in the NID, this activity will serve as a relevant climate adaptation measure. The most cost‐effective interventions will be identified through the feasibility and further technical studies (to be completed around the time the project is expected to become effective) and will constitute a priority dredging program to ensure navigation for up to eight months in the project area. Installing approximately 27 channel markers between Ke‐Macina and Akka is a critical part of the measures to avoid boat stranding and accidents. The channel markers are complementary to dredging. Maintenance of the dredged areas is just as important as the channel markers for maintaining the channel’s navigability. An allocation has been factored into this subcomponent’s cost to address immediate needs for the lifetime of the project, however, it is important to secure a source of funding for the medium and longer term. The project Financing Agreement includes a legal covenant addressing this issue. The specific activities to be financed by the project will include (a) bathymetric measurement campaigns; (b) civil works for the dredging and channel markings activities; (c) supervision of civil works; and (d) third‐party technical audits5 (if required by the security conditions).

30. Out of the 19 sandbars identified between Macina and Akka, this operation will initially target seven sandbars between Kayo and Kouli in the Macina Circle. The remaining ones will be treated in a subsequent scale‐up as security allows.

5 Third‐party technical audit was experimented in Mali for the reconstruction of earth roads in the region of Mopti because the World

Bank staff could not go there. The third‐party monitoring allowed to make sure that the work was completed and the technical

specifications were followed.

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Subcomponent 2.2: Enhancing the reliability of river transportation through construction/rehabilitation and maintenance of river docking piers infrastructure (US$1.0 million)

31. The new or rehabilitated port facilities will be designed to ensure better exchanges involving regular and quick trips between areas of production and consumption by facilitating the multimodal integrated transport system (road‐river). Three ports have been identified as priority ports for rehabilitation: Macina, Mopti, and Diafarabé, as these are serviced by COMANAV and serve important population centers. The construction of three additional ports to accommodate pinasses and pirogues in Kouakourou, Diondori, Youwarou is seen as an opportunity to provide greater access to more isolated areas. There are anticipated annual maintenance costs for each site that will have to be considered as part of the long‐term sustainability. The technical feasibility studies will provide the basis for planning maintenance work and the project will likely finance maintenance requirements during the life of the project.

32. The project will initially finance only the rehabilitation of the ports of Macina and Diafarabe. Financing for the other ports will depend on security improving in the area.

Subcomponent 2.3: Improving socioeconomic opportunities and ecosystem functions of the NID (US$1.0 million)

33. The proposed socioeconomic activities are consistent with the PDESC of 20 targeted municipalities that will benefit directly from the proposed project. This operation will finance a pilot phase, focusing on capacity building and citizen engagement, in areas selected based on a security assessment. Preliminary studies for a possible scale‐up under a future financing, if security allows, are described in Annex 1.

Subcomponent 2.4: Protection and rehabilitation of riverbanks and restoration of channels (US$4.0 million)

34. The subcomponent includes activities considered important for the improvement of the ecological functions of the river and for climate resilience by preventing siltation along with improving navigability, and the activities go together with the socioeconomic activities in Subcomponent 2.3. These activities are linked to climate adaptation because they provide a way to mitigate the impacts of climate change (in terms of increased occurrence of drought and variable climate events) that will affect the population and ecosystems of the area. Some channels have been obstructed over the years due to lower flood heights and changes in flooding regimes caused by climate change and increased competition over water usages. This operation will finance a pilot phase, that is, the opening (4,500 m) that will benefit two to three communes through improved access to water for a longer period throughout the year. Preliminary studies for a possible scale‐up under future financing, if security allows, are described in Annex 2.

Component 3: Project Management (US$5.0 million equivalent)

35. This component will support project planning, monitoring, and implementation. It will finance the operational costs related to the implementation of the project components, including third‐party monitoring and/or execution if required. The component costs also include the refinancing of the project preparation advance (PPA) and the costs associated with additional security provisions on site. The provisions for security

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arrangements involving third‐party monitoring and implementation, among others, significantly increased the overall costs for project management.

Subcomponent 3.1: Operational costs of the ABFN (US$2.5 million)

36. This subcomponent will finance goods, works, workshops, training and operational costs for ABFN and other relevant participating agencies involved in the implementation of project activities.

Subcomponent 3.2: Equipment and training (from the PPAs) (US$0.5 million)

37. This subcomponent includes goods, workshops, training and operational costs financed by project preparation advances.

Subcomponent 3.3: Contingencies and security arrangements (US$2.0 million)

38. This subcomponent will finance technical assistance, third party monitoring or other relevant costs associated with additional security needs that will be identified during project implementation.

Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response (US$0)

39. The Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC), will be available should the need arise to redirect resources freed up by a future restructuring of the project or other World Bank projects in the Mali portfolio. Such resources would be made available to finance emergency response activities and to address crisis and emergency needs. An Immediate Response Mechanism Coordinating Agency and expenditure management procedures will be defined in an Immediate Response Mechanism Operational Manual (IRM/OM), to be prepared separately and approved by the World Bank, in line with guidance provided under the Investment Project Financing Policy and Directive. In case this component is utilized, the project will be restructured to allocate financing, revise the PDO and indicators as needed, and detail implementation arrangements.

B. Project Cost and Financing

40. The rehabilitation of the Niger River has been identified as a priority for the Government and is an integral part of the National Program for the Protection of the Niger River adopted by the Government in 2016. This project will be implemented through financing from the International Development Association (IDA) in the amount of US$27.8 million. Two project preparation funds were secured for US$3.5 million (PPA Q9690 for US$2.0 million signed on March 19, 2015, and PPA V0530 for US$1.5 million signed on December 1, 2016) to prepare technical analyses and studies to identify the most appropriate and cost‐effective activities to be undertaken by the project.

41. The Government has committed funding to support the preparation and implementation of this project through the ABFN budget.

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TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF PROJECT COST AND FINANCING

Project Components Project Cost

Component 1: Strengthening the Strategic Management of the Niger River Resources

Subcomponent 1.1: Strengthening environmental monitoring of the Niger River

5.5

Subcomponent 1.2: Supporting the strategic management of infrastructure, resources, and stakeholders in the NID

5.5

(including 3.0 from advance)

Sub‐total Component 1 11.0

Component 2: Enhancing the Viability of Socioeconomic Activities Contributing to Climate Change Resilience

Subcomponent 2.1: Improving river transportation in the NID through targeted dredging and maintenance of navigation channels

5.8

Subcomponent 2.2: Enhancing reliability of river transportation through construction/rehabilitation and maintenance of river docking piers infrastructure

1.0

Subcomponent 2.3: Improving socioeconomic opportunities and ecosystem functions of the NID

1.0

Subcomponent 2.4: Protection and rehabilitation of riverbanks and restoration of channels

4.0

Sub‐total Component 2 11.8

Component 3: Project Management

Subcomponent 3.1: Operational costs of the ABFN 2.5

Subcomponent 3.2: Equipment and training (from the PPAs) 0.5

Subcomponent 3.3: Contingencies and security arrangements 2.0

Sub‐total Component 3

5.0

(including 0.5 from PPA)

C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design

42. There are important lessons that have emerged from World Bank investments (such as the regional Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project, P093806) that have informed the design of this proposed operation.

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43. Managing the present impacts of the intra‐seasonal and inter‐annual variability of the basin’s climate has the potential to better prepare decision makers for dealing with long‐term climate change impacts. Current water allocation rules in the Niger Basin Sustainable Development Action Plan, adopted by the Niger Basin riparian countries through the NBA, prioritize irrigated agriculture to secure food production and alleviate poverty, making it insensitive to projected climate changes. Mild agricultural production decreases may occur, but would generally be less than 3 percent of the output projected in the action plan. Climate change impacts on hydro‐energy, navigation, and inner delta natural flooding patterns are projected to be mild (less than 10 percent decrease) to moderate (less than 20 percent decrease). These impacts, in particular those due to variations in rainfall regimes, can be reduced by adapting rainy season irrigated agriculture and/or by the construction of additional storage reservoirs along with hydro‐energy generation facilities in the water producing parts of the basin, that is, in the Upper Niger Basin and in Nigeria. Climate change impacts on minimum flows are potentially severe; adaptations are required for enhancing minimum flows in the Inner Delta and Middle Niger, for example, by (a) modestly increasing the dry season irrigation efficiency at the Office du Niger (by 2‐3 percent); (b) reducing the dry season irrigated area by at least 6 percent; or (c) changing cropping patterns to less water demanding crops.6 This project will promote the approach in option (c).

44. Technical assistance provided to the NBA has illustrated that increasing productive uses of water must explore demand management and supply increases. This is especially important in an area such as the NID where the water resources seem to be increasingly constrained. International experience shows that significant economic gains can be obtained through proper water demand management. Efforts in water efficiency improvements have been launched in irrigation schemes such as those administered by the Office du Niger and efficiencies, as well as increased demand, will have to be understood for their impacts on water flows. Additionally, improving the performance of infrastructure and of the economic activities in the NID is a relatively efficient way to increase economic growth, reduce poverty, and protect the environment. Finally, the present project is heavily reliant on a participatory approach and significant resources are allocated under Subcomponents 1.1 and 1.2 to establish a robust citizen engagement process based on lessons from many projects financed by the World Bank and taking into account the specific conditions on the ground in the project area.

45. In particular, close coordination with the NBA will bring about synergies that will ensure better sustainability and overall regional coherence with the overall objective to improve climate resilience at the level of the whole basin.

46. The complex hydrological and geomorphologic characteristics of flood plains, especially large ones like the NID, can often not be adequately addressed by traditional strategic environmental assessment and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) instruments. Experience from the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghan Delta in Bangladesh points to the importance of supplementing these traditional instruments with additional studies on the complex and iterative relationship between hydrology, sediment, ecosystems, and livelihoods. The studies of investments to improve navigability of the NID take into consideration these complex

6 Niger Basin Authority and the World Bank. 2013. Niger River Basin Sustainable Development Action Plan: Niger Basin Climate Risk

Assessment for the Sustainable Development Action Plan.

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dynamics. In addition, the PST2 has carried out rehabilitation of ports and quays on the Niger River and the experience gained during this project is directly relevant to the PREEFN port construction/rehabilitation component.

47. Regarding the socioeconomic interventions, the project will rely and use, to the greatest extent, the mechanisms set forth in current World Bank‐financed projects in Mali. The Skills Development and Youth Employment Project (P145861), approved in 2014, is implementing a nationwide program targeting vocational training for beneficiaries particularly in the rural areas, including youth and women. The SDYP provides training and direct support through Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) and private intermediaries in several areas of interest for the PREEFN, for example, fisheries, vegetable gardens, mechanical workshops, and so on. These interventions are carried out through the Agency for the Promotion of Youth Employment under the Ministry of Employment and Vocational Training.

48. In addition, the PREEFN will also coordinate, as necessary, with the Emergency Safety Nets Project (Jigisemejiri)7(P127328), for which an additional financing has been recently approved and which should make available US$2 million equivalent for financing revenue‐generating activities for some of the current population targeted by the project (about 65,000 people) some of them being in the area targeted by the PREEFN.

49. Reflecting the prevailing security situation in some parts of the country, the Government and the World Bank are assessing the appropriate arrangements for monitoring and execution on a project‐by‐project basis. Third‐party monitoring arrangements are being envisaged that would likely involve NGOs and/or other CSOs, as well as satellite‐based solutions.

IV. IMPLEMENTATION

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

50. The institutional and implementation arrangements involve three organizational levels, reflecting the initial request transmitted by the Government to the World Bank at the outset of project preparation. The responsible ministry for the project is the Ministry in charge of Environment, in line with decree No. 2016‐0728 dated September 20, 2016, related to the National Program for the Preservation of the Niger River.

51. Project Steering Committee (PSC). The PSC is chaired by the Minister of Environment and Sanitation and Sustainable Development and vice‐chaired by the Minister of Transport, and includes, among others, the Minister of Economy and Finance, the Minister in charge of water and the Minister in charge of decentralization. The PSC will be responsible for the overall technical and operational guidance, direction, and coordination during project implementation. It will have fiduciary and governance oversight and will bear overall responsibility for the

7 ‘Jigisemesiri’ means The Tree of Hope in the local language.

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compliance with the World Bank and national safeguards policies. The PSC will meet at least once every six months (or exceptionally if so required) and will be supported, in all its functions, by the Project Technical Committee for Coordination and Monitoring (PTCCM, see below). The ABFN will chair the Secretariat of the PSC.

52. PTCCM. The PTCCM will be chaired by the director of the ABFN and vice‐chaired by the director of the DNTTMF. It will include designated focal points (technical experts) from the DNTTMF, DNH, COMANAV, ABFN, NBA, National Directorate for Sanitation, Control of Pollution, and Harmful Substances (Direction Nationale de l’Assainissement, du Contrôle des Pollutions et des Nuisances, DNACPN), General Directorate of Public Debt, General Directorate for Planning and Development, and Division of Coordination of Project and Program Monitoring and municipalities. The PTCCM will be responsible for the implementation of the project in accordance with the guidelines of the Steering Committee and the dissemination of project information. The PTCCM will meet at least once a month (or exceptionally, if so required). The ABFN will chair the PTCCM Secretariat and will ensure fiduciary responsibilities for the PTCCM.

53. Project Implementation Unit (PIU). Based on the decisions taken by the PTCCM, the ABFN will be in charge of implementing the project in compliance with overall fiduciary (procurement and financial management [FM]), safeguards (environmental and social) aspects, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) requirements for World Bank‐financed projects.

54. Inter‐sectoral collaboration. The importance of the Niger River for livelihoods and economic activity make inter‐sectoral collaboration imperative for the successful delivery of the project objectives. The upstream and downstream implications of developments on the river intensify the need for working collaboratively across sectors to ensure the implementation of effective and sustainable integrated water resource management. The administrative separation of the water and environment sectors in 2014 has added complexity to the dynamics of managing the competing interests associated with riverine resources. Integral partners in the project include the DNH, Office du Niger, COMANAV, NBA, and the ministry responsible for transportation, among others, as they represent entities with dedicated responsibilities over the management of the Niger River in Mali.

55. Coordination with decentralized municipalities. The identification of works in the project will be carried out in close consultation with local authorities and communities so that investments can be designed to support local needs and livelihoods as well as navigational needs. The ABFN will determine whether to guide implementation from the capital, Bamako, or from a regional office, such as Mopti, to ensure that management and supervision of the works are more effective. Close collaboration with regional offices will be part of the project to ensure that there is multisector collaboration at the decentralized level as well as at the national level.

56. Considering the precarious security situation in the project area, project oversight and implementation entities will ensure that close coordination is in place with Malian security forces to provide, as necessary, the proper security coverage to the activities financed by the project.

57. The coordinating agency for Component 4 as well as expenditure management procedures and institutional arrangements will be defined in an Intermediate Response Mechanism Operational Manual (IRM/OM), to be prepared separately and approved by the World Bank, in line with the flexibility provided in the Investment Project Financing Policy and Directive.

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B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation

58. The Government and the World Bank have agreed to establish effective mechanisms for project monitoring as part of a broader effort to monitor the Niger River. The Project Implementation Manual (PIM) will detail the measures and procedures to be implemented to generate the data necessary to inform the indicators presented in the Results Framework.

59. The citizen’s engagement component of the project will also be useful to generate data to inform on the outcomes of the project. Resources from the project will also be used to reinforce coordination between relevant technical agencies in the various sectors that are concerned with the usage and/or management of the Niger River resources. Resources will be used from the project to ensure complementarity among the different institutions that monitor and track the socioeconomic and physical conditions of the river, notably, the DNH and the NBA among others. The NBA has a mandate to support all countries sharing the Niger River Basin in monitoring of the river so the project will work to complement and develop greater synergies with NBA.

60. An M&E framework, based on the Results Framework included in this document, will be detailed in the PIM and will define the format, frequency, and procedure for collecting the necessary data and the type of analysis it will be subjected to. Monitoring will be executed by ABFN.

61. In the context of the observatory to be established by the project (Subcomponent 1.1), the ABFN will develop an appropriate mechanism for consolidating and sharing information and data, including with regard to the implementation of the project so that stakeholders will have access to data to make more informed decisions.

C. Sustainability

62. The project has identified and is addressing two sustainability issues related to the maintenance of the channel after the restorative initial dredging, as well as the upkeep and maintenance of the port infrastructure that the project will finance. The sustainability underpinnings of the approach proposed are (a) the focus on the institutional and regulatory framework that will clarify and better structure the responsibilities and mandates of all concerned institutional and non‐institutional actors and (b) to ensure that the economic and technical conditions are met so that the infrastructure and channel works are maintained and managed properly so that their benefit can last over time.

63. The deteriorating security situation over course of project preparation necessitated that the scope be reduced until the conditions improve. The full set of activities initially considered and appraised will be completed under a separate financing as and if security improves.

64. In addition, this project has been prepared in the context of a joint effort between Mali, the Niger Basin riparian countries, and the international community to fight climate change through promoting resilience and low carbon development pathways. This project is part of the Climate Resilience Investment Plan prepared with the support of the World Bank in coordination with the NBA and the nine riparian countries.8 The Climate

8 Guinea, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad.

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Resilience Investment Plan was presented as a 10‐year regional climate related initiative at the COP 21 in Paris in December 2015.

65. In order to strengthen sustainability of the proposed project outcomes the project will finance a study that will address the feasibility of implementing the polluter and user pay principles.

D. Role of Partners

66. Collaboration with development partners is an imperative element of developing any project within the NID, which has implications across a wide array of actors and socioeconomic sectors. This project has been developed with an understanding that the resources are limited and cannot address all of the needs within the project area, let alone in the NID.

67. With regard to environmental monitoring of the Niger River and the NID, Wetlands International has been a most active partner in tracking the evolution of the ecological function and health of the river. Their research and thoughtful analysis has helped guide the need for balancing development objectives and the link to maintaining ecological function of the ecosystem. In addition, the NBA has continued to play an ongoing role in tracking the functions along the entirety of the river, as well as the many different socioeconomic uses.

68. The German, Dutch, Swiss, Luxembourg, Danish, Swedish, American, and Belgian development and technical agencies have supported aquaculture and fisheries management and other rural development activities that have yielded positive results and important lessons for this project. The German Cooperation has been particularly active in supporting improved agriculture and aquaculture activities in the NID and will continue to be a valuable partner in the implementation of the socioeconomic activities.

69. The fact that this project is also part of the Niger River Basin Climate Resilience Plan that was presented at COP21 in December 2015 in Paris is also a guarantee that the regional implications of this project will be properly reflected in the design and implementation of this project. Close coordination with the NBA will bring about synergies that will ensure better sustainability and overall regional coherence with the overall objective to improve climate resilience at the level of the whole basin.

V. KEY RISKS

A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Key Risks

70. The overall risk rating for implementation is High. Key risks and mitigation measures are the following:

71. Political and governance (high). Part of the project area is unsafe due to the conflict and fragility in the northern part of Mali, despite some achievements under the implementation of the Algiers Peace Agreement. The current peace agreement has not yielded concrete results to pacify the area. Security provisions have been

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included in Component 3. Additionally, the weakened state of governance in the country could affect the integrity of the decision‐making process. This risk is beyond the project’s control and will be monitored.

72. Macroeconomic (substantial). The overall macroeconomic position of the country is largely determined by the security situation and remains weak and volatile. There is always a risk that priorities could suddenly shift, leaving the sector with less funding. The protection of the Niger River is a top priority for the Government as stated in the National Program for the Preservation of the Niger River (see para 50). Also, the project design does not envisage counterpart funding in order to minimize the strain on government finances.

73. Sector strategies and policies (substantial). Key risks include the lack of synergy between the various stakeholders involved in the project and the management of the Niger River resources overall and the inexistence of a well‐developed strategy to improve the river transport subsector. The project will support a study on the institutional and regulatory measures needed to close these gaps.

74. Technical design of project or program (substantial). The risk of overdesigning the scope of works without clear economic and/or ecological justification has been addressed through a careful analysis during the prefeasibility and feasibility stages, as well as prior environmental and social assessment of the proposed activities. With the lack of reliable data and information on river transport, as well as in‐depth technical studies on dredging, the project may be asked to finance activities (acquisition of ferries, spare parts, and so on) which are not relevant to the project objectives. However, the economic analysis carried out for the project shows that the different activities will lead to acceptable economic rates of return (ERRs). The degraded security situation in the overall project area has led to the adoption of a phased approach for the implementation of this project and so the activities to be first implemented had to be consistent with both the security constraints as well as with the project development objectives.

75. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability (substantial). There is a lack of sustainable funding mechanism to finance the appropriate maintenance of the navigable channel, the lack of capacity to ensure appropriate maintenance of the river transport infrastructure, and the lack of capacity to prepare and implement the project (technical, fiduciary, and safeguards). To address these risks, the project will support training and communication activities, and the Financing Agreement includes covenants on staffing and reporting requirements. The Financing Agreement further contains a covenant for the Government to meet its obligations on the maintenance of the principal navigable channels.

76. Fiduciary (substantial). The fiduciary risk is substantial considering the relative lack of experience of ABFN with World Bank financed projects and the applicable fiduciary (procurement and FM) requirements. The risk of irregularities and corruption is significant given the country context and security situation. Corruption and poor service delivery are recognized as key challenges in Mali’s public sector and the lack of appropriate oversight and adequate operational tools could jeopardize project implementation. The ABFN will be strengthened with experienced fiduciary specialists to minimize the fiduciary risks. World Bank‐approved reporting formats and guidelines on anti‐corruption and procurement will apply to the project (see para 98). Further measures to reduce the risks have been proposed below (see section VI Appraisal Summary, and Annex 2).

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77. Environmental and social (substantial). The timely preparation of relevant environmental and social safeguards instruments is also going to depend on the capacity of the counterpart to proceed on the technical front and conduct meaningful consultations with stakeholders. During preparation, comprehensive assessments were carried out that included meaningful and comprehensive public consultations. During implementation, several subcomponents of the project include provisions for conducting public consultations and awareness campaigns. The Project Implementation Manual will contain provisions on the grievance redress mechanism, code of conduct, worker health and safety conditions, and an approach for monitoring cases of gender based violence, including measures to improve awareness.

78. Stakeholders (moderate). There is a risk of resistance to change when making the informal sector more formal and regulated thus disturbing the social status quo. The project will include a built‐in significant continuous consultation and public participation process to ensure population buy‐in and support.

79. Other (security ‐ high). The security situation in the NID has been deteriorating, particularly over the past few months. To address the corresponding risk for the project, the World Bank and the Malian authorities have designed the proposed operation to mitigate security risks which affect Component 2 in particular. For the dredging (Subcomponents 2.1 and 2.2), activities will start in less‐affected areas of the river and with technologies for which local firms could intervene. Regarding the livelihood‐enhancing activities under Subcomponent 2.3 and, to a more limited extent, Subcomponent 2.4, the proposed operation will conduct a pilot phase in areas clearly located in space and in time that could be considered as secured. The Government and the World Bank are also closely monitoring the situation, and an assessment of the security arrangements set up by the Government will be provided regularly by the World Bank security specialists. Finally, the project includes contingencies for the implementation of third‐party monitoring and/or execution if the need arises.

VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY

A. Economic and Financial Analysis

80. A three‐pronged economic analysis was performed where (a) project impacts were quantitatively valued through a cost/benefit analysis; (b) the relevance of a public‐sector vehicle was discussed; and (c) the World Bank’s added value was gauged. This economic analysis is undertaken based on the original project scope. The present operation will only carry out a portion of the intended interventions to demonstrate feasibility and also to adapt to the degraded security conditions in the project area. The initial economic analysis has been retained as the project should be considered in the context of the initial scope and will be expanded as soon as the security situation improves.

Quantitative Analysis

81. The quantitative analysis done during project preparation will be part of a larger and longer effort during project implementation to monitor both the socioeconomic benefits accruing to beneficiaries with regard to trickle‐down effects on the poor and from ecosystem services quality. Financial and economic cost/benefit analyses were carried out using a 5 percent and 6 percent discount rate, respectively. However, the financial analysis carried out for Subcomponent 2.3 was dropped as the security situation led to the downscaling of the

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subcomponent, which now only includes capacity building. A sensitivity analysis and a scenario analysis were also performed. For the former, an increase in cost and decrease in benefits allowed to derive the switch‐off points. For the latter, three scenarios were considered: pessimistic scenario, base case scenario, and optimistic scenario.

82. The economic analysis was carried out for the project as well as for Component 2 over 20 years, to derive the social benefits accruing to society. Component 2 aims to increase the IWT navigability period and improve its safety, as well as improve the quality of the NID ecosystem services and wildlife, while increasing the livelihood opportunities of the targeted communes because of these investments. Moreover, for Component 2, the annual O&M cost is considered for the period, including recurrent dredging every three years. Yet, arbitrating between these complementary but sometimes competing uses remains challenging, especially in conjunction with two important parameters that will come into play in the near future: the construction of the proposed upstream Fomi dam in Guinea and the gradual increase of climate change effects.

83. The economic analysis showed that Component 2 and the project as a whole are viable with a net present value (NPV) discounted at 6 percent of US$43.8 million and US$25.9 million, respectively. The benefit/cost ratios are greater than 1 while the ERRs are positive and reach 30 percent and 15 percent, respectively. The results are positive despite the conservative stance and the few benefits considered in the cost/benefit analysis (Table 2).

84. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to derive the overall project and component viability switch‐off points for cost increment, benefit decrement and equal cost increment and benefit decrement, with discount rates ranging from 4 percent to 8 percent. The switch‐off points when cost increment equals benefit decrement discounted at 6 percent are ±36 percent and ±18 percent for Component 2 and the overall project, respectively. The overall project and its components are more sensitive to a decrease in benefits than an increase in costs (Annex 4).

85. A scenario analysis was performed to determine the combined impact of variables of the overall project economic analysis that are usually analyzed separately. Table 4.11 (Annex 4) provides the combined impact of variables for the overall project. All scenarios are viable, including the pessimistic scenario that includes enough flexibility to reach acceptable economic return. Also, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the overall project viability switch‐off point when cost increment equals benefit decrement: they reach ±18 percent and ±39 percent for base case and optimistic scenarios, respectively, whereas the pessimistic scenario is no longer viable. Again, the project is more sensitive to a reduction of benefits than an increase in costs.

TABLE 2. PROJECT COST/BENEFIT, SENSITIVITY, AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY

Key Indicator Component 2

Discounted at 6%

PREEFN

Scenario Pessimistic

At 8%

Base Case

At 6%

Optimistic

At 4%

Cost/Benefit Analysis

NPV (US$, millions) 43.8 –9.2 25.9 75.5

ERR (%) 30 4 15 25

PV cost/benefit ratio 2.1 0.8 1.5 2.3

Project viability Yes No Yes Yes

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Key Indicator Component 2

Discounted at 6%

PREEFN

Scenario Pessimistic

At 8%

Base Case

At 6%

Optimistic

At 4%

Sensitivity Analysis

Switch‐off point

>Cost = <Benefit (±%) ±36 ±0 ±18 ±39

>Cost (±%) +114 +0 +46 +129

<Benefit (±%) –53 –0 –31 –56

Note: PV = Present Value

Public Sector Relevance

86. A public‐sector vehicle is instrumental to increase the opportunity and reduce the vulnerability of the NID stakeholders. Improving the mobility of people and goods along the Niger River in both time and space and enhancing the management of the NID resources and ecosystem services will help put the NID on a sustainable path with significant benefits accruing to the poor. Building and harmonizing knowledge across relevant sectors and services requires an interactive framework that will allow better monitoring, analyzing, and managing of these resources. Setting up such a framework is a local public good that requires significant investments and technical assistance. Most targeted institutions, which require capacity building, are of a public nature and provide public goods and services. Hence, the purpose of the overall project is to develop the NID sustainable management by federating, increasing the capacity and furthering the interaction of these entities so that they will be able to increase their interactive capabilities and better manage the multisector aspect of the NID.

World Bank Value Added

87. Many initiatives have been carried out in the past, particularly in the NID, by multilateral, bilateral and international organizations that can be scaled up through World Bank intervention. The World Bank’s value added can be considered at two levels. First, the World Bank’s objectivity and legitimacy could play a convening role that will help accomplish such an endeavor. Second, the complexity and technicality of developing the sustainable management in the NID gives the World Bank, with its global experience, a unique edge in providing technical expertise in support to follow up and backstopping the project’s implementation, and bringing it to successful completion.

B. Technical

88. The project is structured around two major components; the first one is essentially designed with a knowledge/capacity building/stakeholder engagement focus. The second component addresses priority infrastructure work in the NID originally in the area between Ké Macina and Akka, but this project will start with activities in the area of Macina‐Diafarabé.

89. Improving knowledge and understanding of the NID is being addressed through the establishment of an observatory for the Niger River. The objectives, requirements, and necessary resources of this observatory have been assessed as part of the project feasibility assessment. The establishment of this observatory will consider

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work that has been done over the past few years by the DNH with the support of Wetlands International. The observatory will also fulfill an important monitoring function about water quality and overall ecosystem functions of the river and thus complement and feed into the system in place at the basin level and operated by the NBA based in Niamey.

90. Component 1 will also include technical assistance and capacity‐strengthening activities targeting local port municipalities, pinasses operators, pinasses builders, and dredging contractors. A robust stakeholder participation/engagement program aimed at strengthening support and ownership will be implemented as part of this component.

91. Component 2 will include infrastructure work principally for improving navigability in the stretch between Macina and Diafarabé (the project has been appraised for activities to take place over the larger area between Macina and Akka, but have been reduced in this first phase due to the current security situation in the NID area), first with treatment of the sandbars that prevent navigation in this area. With the help of COMANAV vessel pilots, 19 such sandbars were originally identified as critical spots to be treated on priority. This project will treat seven of these hot spots between Kayo and Kouli using regional/local dredging capabilities due to the prevailing security conditions that will not allow the participation of large foreign companies. However, technical assistance and appropriate technical supervision will be provided to optimize the way work is carried out. To complement the work on the hot spots, this component will include a comprehensive intervention aimed at improving signalization along the river to improve fluidity and safety of navigation. The other major infrastructure works to be carried out under this component are related to the construction and rehabilitation of two river docking piers (Macina and Diafarabé) out of the six to be constructed or rehabilitated that have been appraised in the context of the initial project. Prefeasibility studies covered the six docking piers to be financed by the project. By effectiveness, the technical feasibility for three of these docking piers will be completed and the corresponding call for tenders will be ready to be issued.

92. Component 2 will include a pilot for livelihood‐enhancing activities in selected areas of the NID, as well as studies and preparatory works for a possible scaling‐up for such livelihood‐enhancing activities targeting the population of the area and the different groups that constitute it, whether by socio‐professional (farmers, fishermen, and herders) or socioeconomic criteria (women and youth).

93. Finally, under Component 2, the project will finance a pilot intervention aimed at demonstrating the economic and environmental benefit of opening lateral channels. The changes in flooding regimes in the NID have affected a few zones which used to get flooded every year. With time, the flood levels have reduced and some side channels have become clogged, thus hampering water access and affecting the local population and the environment (fish and river ecosystem in general).

94. The Government and the World Bank are closely monitoring the situation in the NID, and an assessment of the security arrangements set up by the Government will be provided regularly by the World Bank security specialists. In addition, the project includes contingencies for the implementation of third‐party monitoring and/or execution, if the need arises.

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C. Financial Management

95. The assessment concluded that the financial management arrangements of the project are generally acceptable. The FM assessment established that the ABFN lacks experience with World Bank procedures. The other factor underlying the risk rating is in the control environment including – establishment of a new PIU to be duly staffed.

96. The PIM will detail the roles and responsibilities of all involved stakeholders, as well as the project implementation mechanism. The PIM also will describe the governance and oversight arrangements, including the required FM procedures such as staffing, budgeting, accounting, reporting, funds flows, and disbursement arrangements. The following actions have been set as dated covenants in the Financing Agreement: (a) the recruitment of one Financial Management Officer; (b) the installation of a computerized accounting software capable of correctly recording and consolidating financial information and automatic generation of financial statements (interim and annual); (c) the recruitment of an internal auditor to conduct ex‐post reviews; and (d) the recruitment of an external auditor to audit annual financial statements.

97. The financial management arrangements are expected to satisfy the World Bank’s minimum requirements once mitigation measures have been implemented. An FM action plan to enhance the FM arrangements for the project is included in Annex 2.

D. Procurement

98. Procurement for the proposed project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank ‘Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works, and Non‐Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers’, dated January 2011, revised in July 2014; ‘Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers’, dated January 2011, revised in July 2014; and the ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants’, dated October 15, 2006, revised in January 2011. National Competitive Bidding (NCB) shall accord with procedures acceptable to the World Bank.

99. The World Bank team has completed the procurement assessment of ABFN, the Directorate of Finance and Equipment of the Ministry of Environment. The assessment was carried out by the World Bank Procurement Specialist based in Bamako in line with OP 11.00 and BP 11.00, updated in April 2013.

100. The World Bank’s procurement experience in Mali has shown that (a) significant delays are experienced in procurement processing, with a significant part of the time spent on preparation of tender specifications, terms of reference, and bids/proposals/evaluation process and that (b) procurement documents (Bidding Documents, Request for Proposals, Bid Evaluation Reports, and Technical Evaluation Reports of proposals) tend to be of poor quality. In addition, delays are also observed in the contract award and signature processes on the government side. These experiences have been factored into the design of the procurement arrangements.

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101. To mitigate the risks identified in the assessment, an action plan has been prepared in consultation with the client (see Annex 2). With the implementation of the proposed measures of the action plan and the support of World Bank team, the overall procurement risk will be reduced.

E. Social (including Safeguards)

102. Social safeguard policies relevant to the project. The project triggers the policy OP 4.12 related to Involuntary Resettlement. A Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) for the infrastructure component of the project was prepared and disclosed before project appraisal (see para. 114), as required. Early during implementation and before the works are authorized to start, Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) will be prepared for the activities that will require them, such as the river docking piers’ construction/rehabilitation because of possible physical or economic displacement of people that could be temporary or definitive. The completion of the RAPs during the early implementation phase is because the detailed feasibility studies are being finalized and it would not be pertinent nor effective to prepare RAPs earlier. Compensation in the event of involuntary resettlement of populations is the responsibility of the Government of Mali.

103. Communication and citizen engagement. The project will include a two‐pronged approach to promote beneficiaries’ participation through intertwining strategic communication with citizen engagement mechanisms. This approach will help promote transparency, enhance citizens’ voice, and participation. Intertwining citizen engagement mechanisms with communication activities will facilitate beneficiaries buy‐in and, thereby, generate a broad stakeholder’s ownership of project activities. The project will integrate three citizen engagement mechanisms such as direct consultations with beneficiaries, multi‐level arrangements for registering and addressing grievances and complaints, and a community monitoring process that will be embedded at the local level. Under each project intervention, the consultations will be organized to reach relevant stakeholder groups, such as the private sector actors, in addition to targeted communities. The project grievance redress mechanism will provide clear and accountable means for affected persons to raise complaints and seek remedies when they believe they have been harmed by project activities.

104. Community monitoring mechanisms will be embedded at the local level to collect beneficiaries’ feedback on project implementation and the impact of project activities and assess the degree of the beneficiaries’ participation, as well as their grievances, and whether/how they are addressed. The community monitoring mechanism and third‐party monitoring will be conducted at the local level by local CSOs and will seek community/beneficiary feedback through a network of locally embedded enumerators using a smartphone app. The Project Implementation Manual will contain provisions on the grievance redress mechanism, code of conduct, worker health and safety conditions, and an approach for monitoring cases of gender based violence, including measures to improve awareness.

F. Environment (including Safeguards)

105. The environmental and social assessments pertaining to the original scope of the project have been completed. For the reduced project scope, only some of these instruments will be relevant.

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106. Categorization. The project will be implemented in the general context of a sensitive and unique ecosystem exposed to the vagaries of climate change and it is important to identify the impacts on people and the environment of some of the infrastructure works that will be financed by the project. Some of these works (for example, dredging, rehabilitation of river piers, and riverbank strengthening) might have large and irreversible impacts, hence, the environmental category ‘A’—full assessment—for this project.

107. Environmental safeguard policies relevant to the project. The project triggers the following environmental safeguards policies: OP 4.01 ‐ Environmental Assessment, OP 4.04 ‐ Natural Habitats, OP 4.09 ‐ Pest Management, OP 4.37 ‐ Safety of Dams, and OP 4.11 ‐ Physical Cultural Resources.

108. OP 4.01 ‐ Environmental Assessment. This policy is triggered for this project due to both the environmental and social sensitivity of the NID, as well as the potential impacts from some of the proposed activities such as dredging, fluvial ports, and channel openings.

109. OP 4.04 ‐ Natural Habitats. This policy is triggered due the sensitive ecosystems in the area of the project. In particular, a large area in the NID is classified as a RAMSAR site due to its unique ecological features.

110. OP 4.09 ‐ Pest Management. Although the current project will not finance pesticides procurement or pest management measures in general, the activities under Subcomponent 2.3 justify the preparation and provision of sensitization and awareness campaigns in anticipation of future investments benefiting the farmers.

111. OP 4.37 ‐ Safety of Dams. Although no dams are in the direct proximity of the project area (the closest would be the Markala dam, which is about 80 km upstream), as a precautionary principle the project will keep a watch on the basin wide context and the upstream situation. However, it is not necessary to establish a dam safety panel at this stage considering that other ongoing projects are explicitly following up with periodic dam monitoring and technical oversight.

112. OP 4.11 ‐ Physical Cultural Resources. The cultural richness of the area justifies the inclusion in the project of specific measures in case of discovery of cultural and archeological artifacts. A chance find procedure will be included in the call for tenders.

113. An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) that identifies the main environmental and social safeguards risks, as well as the main mitigating, monitoring, and capacity‐building measures to be embedded in the project design, has been prepared. The ESMF is an appropriate instrument in this case because although the typology of activities is known, only the general location and detail regarding the different components of the projects are identified. On the basis of the pre‐feasibility studies carried out during project preparation, the ESIAs for docking piers, originally part of the project scope, to be constructed (Kouakourou, Diondori, and Youwarou), were prepared and disclosed before appraisal, although the proposed operation will not immediately finance these investments. Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs) for the docking piers to be rehabilitated concern works that are minor in scope and pose a limited risk. The ESMPs are well‐advanced but have been delayed due to the security situation in the area, and will by all means be disclosed before any works are authorized to begin, per the Financing Agreement. Similarly, the ESIA for dredging activities is also being finalized. For the other activities, the screening process described in the ESMF will ensure that the

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type of assessment is identified in advance and carried out before the corresponding activities are implemented on the ground.

114. The ESMF and RPF were disclosed respectively on the World Bank website on April 11, 2017 and April 4, 2017, while both documents were disclosed in‐country on April 18, 2017. The site‐specific ESIAs for Kouakourou, Diondiori and Youwarou docking piers were disclosed on the World Bank website respectively on April 14, April 18, and May 3, 2017. The ESIA for the sandbar dredging activities is being finalized and is currently interim since about half of the sites envisaged have been assessed, since the consultant’s team was not able to visit all sites due to the security situation in the project area. The ESIA will be finalized for the remaining sites as soon as security conditions allow and disclosed accordingly in‐country and on the World Bank website. The works will start gradually only on the sites where the full assessment has been completed.

115. The ESMFs, RPFs and site specific ESIAs include an estimate of the costs of mitigation, monitoring and capacity strengthening and these costs have been factored in the financing of the components of the project.

G. Other Safeguard Policies

116. The International Waters policy (OP 7.50 ‐ Projects on International Waterways) is triggered. An assessment was carried out to ascertain the risks for harm to riparians’ use of water and it was concluded that perturbations resulting in increased turbidity would be localized and that no appreciable harm would be caused. The notification requirement was handled through the NBA, which has the mandate to play that role in conformity with the Water Charter of the Niger River linking all nine riparian countries. The notification was sent, and the notification period of 30 days lasted from April 20, 2017 until May 20, 2017. No objections were received.

H. World Bank Grievance Redress

117. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project‐level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project‐related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non‐compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects‐operations/products‐and‐services/grievance‐redress‐service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org.

.

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VII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING

Results Framework COUNTRY : Mali

Mali ‐ Economic & Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River Project Development Objectives

The objectives of the Project are to demonstrate the effectiveness of navigation and port service improvement measures, and demonstrate the feasibility of environmental restoration and livelihood improvement activities at targeted sites in the Niger Inner Delta (NID), and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, improve the Recipient’s capacity to respond promptly and effectively to such Eligible Crisis or Emergency. Project Development Objective Indicators

Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure

Baseline End Target Frequency Data Source/Methodology Responsibility for Data Collection

Name: Average vessel speed between Diafarbé and Macina

Kilometers 14.00 30.00 ABFN/ COMANAV COMANAV travel registry

Annual

Description: Kilometers per hour, average vessel speed for those vessels operated by COMANAV between Macina and Diafarabe

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Name: Area restored/developed in the NID through opening of lateral channels

Hectare(Ha) 0.00 50.00 ABFN

Work records and community surverys

Annual

Description: Area regenerated through cleared channels

Name: Local villages with access to improved livelihood activities

Number 0.00 12.00 ABFN Community survery

Annual

Description: ABFN will track works conducted and interviews with communities (2) for Chian channel (Ké‐Macina commune) and Djiblen (10) Channel (Kokry Commune)

Name: Quantity of traffic at ports by COMANAV (passengers)

Number 1000.00 10000.00 Annual

COMANAV registry

ABFN/ COMANAV/ communes

Description: Port managers to compare before and after surveys of IWT investments, including for the number of passengers for Macina and Diafarabe ports

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Intermediate Results Indicators



Name: Ecological Information reports made available by the Niger River Observatory

Number 0.00 2.00 ABFN Review of ecological reports Semi‐Annual

Description: The Observatory will produce ecological monitoring reports at least semi‐annually

Name: Management plans in place for each new or rehabilitated port (Diafarabé and Macina)

Number 0.00 2.00 ABFN/ communes

Review of annual management plans

Annual

Description: Local agencies of respective commune will be responsible for managing infrastructure

Name: Channel markers installed between Ke‐Macina and Akka

Number 0.00 27.00 ABFN/ COMANAV

Review of channel marker installation and upkeep logs

Annual

Description: Number of channel markers installed

Name: Volume of dredged Cubic 0.00 600000.00 ABFN Review of dredging logs Annual

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material Meter(m3)

Description: ABFN will track number of m³ and linear meters dredged by and location of the dredged areas (amount is indicative)

Name: Ports/quays rehabilitated or built in good condition (Diafarabé and Macina)

Number 0.00 2.00 ABFN

Review of construction or rehabilitation logs

Annual

Description: ABFN will track the number of ports/quays built or rehabilitated that are in good quality (2 rehabilitated Ke‐Macina and Diafarabé)

Name: Share of communities in targeted areas covered participating in community monitoring mechanism

Percentage 0.00 80.00

Description: Community monitoring mechanisms will be embedded at the local level (1) to collect beneficiaries’ feedback on project implementation and the impact of project activities with focus on ecological and livelihood dimensions, and (2) to assess the degree of the beneficiaries’ participation, and (3) to assess to what extent their grievances are being addressed.

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Target Values Project Development Objective Indicators FY

Indicator Name Baseline End Target

Average vessel speed between Diafarbé and Macina 14.00 30.00

Area restored/developed in the NID through opening of lateral channels 0.00 50.00

Local villages with access to improved livelihood activities 0.00 12.00

Quantity of traffic at ports by COMANAV (passengers) 1000.00 10000.00

Intermediate Results Indicators FY

Indicator Name End Target

Ecological Information reports made available by the Niger River Observatory 2.00

Management plans in place for each new or rehabilitated port (Diafarabé and Macina) 2.00

Channel markers installed between Ke‐Macina and Akka 27.00

Volume of dredged material 600000.00

Ports/quays rehabilitated or built in good condition (Diafarabé and Macina) 2.00

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Indicator Name End Target

Share of communities in targeted areas covered participating in community monitoring mechanism 80.00

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ANNEX 1: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION

COUNTRY : Mali

Mali ‐ Economic & Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River

Component 1: Strengthening the Strategic Management and Monitoring of the Niger River Resources (US$11.0 million)

Subcomponent 1.1: Strengthening environmental monitoring of the Niger River (US$5.5 million)

1. The setting up of an observatory for the monitoring of the River Niger in Mali is part of a strategic framework established by the National Program to Preserve the Niger River. This program aims to contribute to the realization and the capitalization of all stocks, economic, environmental, and social and mobility on the Niger River. Specifically, the observatory will

Provide Malian stakeholders better and more sustainable access to data and information from observation of the Niger River and its basin in Mali;

Improve available data and observations of the Niger river information services to facilitate decision making and planning; and

Improve cooperation and exchanges (geographically themed), both between the countries members of the NBA and with partners to promote synergy, efficiency, and the integration of information services across the Niger River basin. The observatory will develop a spatial data infrastructure (SDI). This SDI implements advanced technologies to store, organize, highlight, and disseminate spatially based data.

2. More than a series of tools, the SDI should be seen as a real set of organizational and systemic elements. It necessarily calls for exchanges and connections between the body centralizing the infrastructure and data managers/producers. Indeed, data that the ABFN will highlight imperatively remain the property of the producers, except the data it is going to collect itself (see Table 1.1 for the proposed indicators). Therefore, the conditions for formal data collection, the access, use, and distribution of the data is essential and should be defined in consultation between the actors. This aspect is one of the foundations of the observatory because without the cooperation of producers, SDI may not claim the role that is required.

3. A factor of success and sustainability of the observatory will be the extent to which it raises awareness of stakeholders concerned by the Niger River to the relevance of the data, services and tools available, to bring the community of stakeholders together around the platform. The ABFN will also play an important role in this observatory as a producer of data (indicators) on the Niger River and its watershed in Mali. Table 1.1 shows a list of relevant indicators that could be measured and tracked by the observatory. These indicators will be added to those followed by other observatories such as the NBA or Wetlands International/Ministry of Energy and Water. The list is not exhaustive and must be validated and completed during the feasibility stage.

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TABLE 1.1. PROPOSED INDICATORS FOR OBSERVATORY

Theme Comments Frequency

Assessment and follow‐up of river and channel banks

Potential indicators: Number of landscaped linear meters ‐ number of landscaped m² ‐ location of developed areas (geolocation) ‐ cost of accommodation per linear meter depending on the type of development ‐ number of carried out awareness campaigns ‐ rate of recovery in the case of biological restorations

Track: State of the facilities (in good condition, to strengthen/repair, and so on)

Determine/identify an indicator that takes into account the dimension management (monitoring of operators active in this area and the budgets mobilized for the banks)

Inventory of the banks to have a reference (parameters to observe/measure) situation ‐ mapping of vulnerable areas (type and degree of degradation) ‐ have a reference situation in common along the river and its tributaries

1 to 2 times per year

Follow‐up of the bathymetry

A quality indicator would be the frequency of bathymetric surveys, perhaps a general survey by year, then surveys repeated several times a year, receding flood and low water.

The provision of a ‘navigation chart’ to integrate on the Global Positioning System navigation, re‐adapted annually, reproducing the navigable channel, tags, signals, and so on would be a product of these follow‐ups.

1 to 2 times per year

Network trace from the river for navigation markup

State of the tag (in good condition, degraded, to replace missing, other)

Checking the position of the tag (X, Y)

1 per year, at the beginning of campaign

Monitoring of dredging

Indicators: Number of m³ dredged by section of dredging ‐ number of dredged linear meters ‐ cost per m³ or linear m ‐ location of the dredged areas ‐ section and depth of dredging ‐ granulometric composition of the material to dredge ‐ location of emissions: emissions treatment

Identifying areas to dredge (mapping)

Monitoring of the network of platforms

State of the dock (in good condition, degraded, to fix) ‐ work to be done (nature of the work to be performed)

Management of the docks: Economics ‐ profitability

1 per year

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Theme Comments Frequency

Monitoring of water quality

Indicators to set (limit) ‐ main and polluting physicochemical parameters measurable with mobile field kits

4 mobile units to cover the area of intervention of the ABFN: Upper Niger ‐ Bamako, Mopti (NID), Timbuktu‐Gao (loop of Niger), River Bani (Sikasso)

Material: Measures must be made directly on the ground with appropriate equipment (field kit).

Defined for each indicator

Track the status of the channels

Potential indicators: Number of villages served, flooding period,

amount of tolls collected by channel

1 per year

Monitoring of vegetation ‐ flooded areas

Use of satellite data Sentinel‐1 (radar), Sentinel‐2 (optics), and Sentinel‐3 (altimetry). These free data can be used to generate a number of information products and feed the observatory ‐ diachronic analysis ‐ provision of an annual situation ‐ detecting areas of change.

Take into account the heads of the sub‐basins

1 per year

Noxious aquatic plants

Determine an indicator to assess the extension and/or regression of harmful aquatic plants (hectares released from aquatic plants).

4. The estimated cost proposed in Tables 1.2 and 1.3 is based on the proposed roles and indicators but will vary according to the final responsibilities.

TABLE 1.2. ESTIMATED BUDGET FOR IMPLEMENTING THE OBSERVATORY ‐ IMPLEMENTATION PHASE 1

Activity Cost (US$)

Purchase hardware/equipment: Hardware (servers, workstation, laptop, screens); scan A3 printers A3/A0; software (DBMS, GIS, CMS, and so on); generator; stabilizers; and so on.

80,000

Installation/layout of the server/computer room 30,000

Installation and configuration of the equipment

Developments: The system (Geocatalogue, Geoviewer, CMS, Geoservices) and development of business applications (indicators followed by the ABFN)

290,000

Training/technology transfer: Staff training

Internships abroad

50,000

Workshop/communication/awareness 25,000

Total 470,000

Note: DBMS = Database Management System; GIS = Geographic Information System; CMS = Content Management System.

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TABLE 1. 3. ESTIMATED BUDGET FOR THE ANNUAL RUNNING OF THE OBSERVATORY ‐ PHASE 2

Annual cost (US$)

Years Total (US$)

Staff costs (3 people)

Operating costs: Internet, electricity, fuel for generator

Other expenses: Travel, realization of missions/workshops

Office supplies

Depreciation and renewal of equipment

105,000 5 525,000

5. A minimum of three staff dedicated to the maintenance and management of the observatory are needed: two people dedicated to the maintenance and operation of the platform/observatory (Database Management System, server, Web interface) and one person (minimum) dedicated to the management of the observatory (animate trade, contacts, content, and so on).

6. This subcomponent will include the following two activities aimed at improving knowledge of the NID dynamics and provide good decision support:

Conception of a hydrological model of the NID

Studies toward enhancing the overall hydrological and ecological functions of the NID

7. Finally, this component will include a strong capacity‐building program targeting the ABFN, as well as a robust citizen engagement program that will aim at promoting understanding and support for the project from stakeholders.

Subcomponent 1.2: Supporting strategic management of infrastructure, resources, and stakeholders in the NID (US$5.5 million)

8. Management of the NID consists essentially in the management of public services and the decentralized structures of the departments of Rural Development (agriculture, fishing, and livestock); Water; Transportation; and Environment. Its management also involves socio‐professional and NGOs in these sectors, the private sector, and local communities. There are existing policies and strategies related to growth, regional development, agriculture, livestock, rural development, irrigation, protection of the environment, sanitation, and forest resources, all of which have implications for the use of the river’s resources. However, the current arrangements in place leave the issue of managing the many competing interests and needs unresolved.

9. Four departments clearly dominate the usage: those in charge of water, environment, rural development, and transport. The first two have specific roles, especially in the areas of knowledge collection and analysis, as well as monitoring and protection/restoration of the resource, while the other two are more concerned with the socioeconomic development in all their aspects: agricultural production, fishing, pastoralism, and river transport. The Ministry of Environment plays a special role for the PREEFN through its executing agency, the ABFN, which has the mandate to ensure the overall protection of rivers. This subcomponent will be used to support multi‐stakeholder entities in identifying the areas of competing interests and potential management

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improvement. There will be an emphasis on providing support to communes so they can improve their management of the new and rehabilitated ports and reinforced riverbanks.

10. The management of the NID is still strongly marked by informality. Customary management still plays a large role in the NID (management of land and water, crossing of herds, relations between herders and farmers, and so on), but increasing human pressure on resources that are dwindling shows the limits of this customary management which does not always have the power to enforce good management practices. One of the consequences is the inadequacy or even lack of reliable data (for example, about the operations of canoes and pinasses traffic). This subcomponent will also identify means for integrating informal and formal activities. Additionally, the subcomponent will be used to work with local stakeholder groups in the implementation of the socioeconomic activities through agriculture cooperatives and user associations, civil society and NGOs, and other professional groups. The project will be implemented through a participatory process.

11. Management of fees and/or taxes. There are several types of fees that are currently assessed, such as for the irrigation system in certain ‘Offices’ for irrigated rice production. However, it is not linked so much to the use of water as to the provision of maintenance services. This subcomponent will work on options to formalize the organized operations of pinasses, especially in conjunction with new infrastructure or other improved service, with the goal of providing a source of sustainable maintenance. The communes must ensure good maintenance of infrastructure in exchange for docking fees.

12. Technical assistance to formalize the role of pinasses operators. In line with the provision of the new River Transportation Code #2017‐035 recently approved, the DNTTMF will have the mandate to register all vessels navigating on the river and will have the responsibility to ensure compliance with technical and safety requirements by the vessels operators. The project will strengthen DNTTMF role in that regard. The pinasses that are currently in use can undergo technical improvements that will enhance maneuverability, efficiency, and safety through technical improvements (essentially on structural integrity, engines, and propellers). The rudder system currently used by most, if not all, pinasses is not reliable enough to allow the boat to have sufficient maneuverability because there is no inverter between the propeller and the engine and so there is no way to quickly stop the boat if needed. Another important point is the structure of these pinasses, which also needs significant improvement. This is the type of service that can potentially be used as an incentive to participate in a fee system. This component will include studies and/or training that can assist in this upgrading. This can be linked to the improved regularization of pinasses operations and potentially be used as an incentive for registration and participation into a fee‐based system.

13. An example of a fee structure could be as shown in Table 1.4 (amounts CFAF).

TABLE 1.4. EXAMPLE OF A FEE STRUCTURE

Capacity of the Pinasse (tons) Berthing Fees Annual Fees Passenger Taxes

60 to 40 500 40,000 2,000

Less than 40 500 17,500 2,000

14. Due to the prevailing security situation in the project area, the dredging activities to be financed under the second component of the project will have to be carried out by regional or local dredging contractors. To ensure that the works will be carried out according to the best industry standards, a technical assistance program will take place to benefit the selected contractors as well as the community of dredging contractors in Mali.

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15. In summary, the activities that will be financed under this component are the following:

16. Study to review the institutional and regulatory framework and identify measures to improve it by removing sources of inefficiencies, such as overlapping mandates and lack of sustainable revenue streams through application of the polluter and user pay principles;

17. Technical assistance aimed at formalizing the economic role of pinasses operators;

18. Provision of technical assistance to strengthen the capacity of the National Directorate for Land, Maritime, and Fluvial Transportation (Direction Nationale des Transports Terrestres, Maritimes et Fluviaux ‐DNTTMF) in the administration of river vessels and to bring new boat construction techniques designed to improve the safety and operation of traditional boats navigating the river, namely: pinasses (light boats) and pirogues (canoes);

19. Provision of technical advisory services designed to improve the capacity of entities engaged in dredging activities in order to improve their efficiency and environmental performance;

20. Technical assistance to communes to better manage their port infrastructure;

21. Design and implementation of a public communication and participation program around the issue of the economic role of the Niger River (particularly with regard to transportation and livelihood activities);

22. Feasibility and environmental and social studies and assessments carried out during project preparation (under project advance financing) and accounted in this subcomponent.

Component 2: Enhancing the Viability of Socioeconomic Activities Contributing to Climate Change Resilience (US$11.8 million)

23. The Niger River is the central organizing feature of socioeconomic activity in the NID. Improving the socioeconomic conditions of the population living in the targeted communes and villages will include investments that are mutually reinforcing; improving navigability, transportation of people, and thus access to markets; and improving the access to socioeconomic activities in which people participate and generate goods to exchange, as well as protection of the NID ecosystems which provide the opportunities for improving people’s livelihood.

24. An analysis of socioeconomic data from communes in the project area includes 19 communes in the regions of Ségou and Mopti (an area of approximately 1.419 million ha) and examined the strengths and weaknesses of the different socioeconomic situations with an eye toward identifying the most appropriate socioeconomic activities to support. With this perspective in mind, the proposed interventions are based on a multicriteria approach that takes into consideration the number of villages in the vicinity of the project locations, proximity to markets, intensity of economic activities, and presence or absence of land disputes. The length of the channel segments to be created was also examined with regard to cost‐effectiveness. Overall, the communes in the project area include 503,176 inhabitants (91,827 households), of which 249,276 are men and 253,900 are women. Interventions of the operation will focus on target sites at this stage.

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Subcomponent 2.1: Improving river transportation in the NID through targeted dredging and maintenance of navigation channels (US$5.8 million)

25. Accurately estimating quantity and costs of dredging is difficult because of the wide variety of factors and variables that are included, such as quantity and water flow, quantity of material to be removed, whether to include removal of islets and sandbars, and the desired depth, among others. Estimations of volumes to be dredged are based on the assumption of a navigation channel that is trapezoidal with a 50 m wide base and a desired depth of 2 m with 30 cm overage for safety.

26. Estimating the minimal amount of dredging for the entire area of Ké Macina to Akka to ensure the navigation for eight months, and a flow of 150 m3/second will include dredging approximately 3.3 million m3 of material. It should be emphasized that this is not dredging the entire river along each stretch but rather a total of approximately 50 km in length along noncontiguous sections of approximately 108 km where the river is not deep enough and leads to problems when the waters become too low for the passage of boats. The anticipated costs would be approximately US$13,507,164 (however under the reduced scope of the project submitted herein only seven sandbars will be dredged at a cost of about US$ 3,250,000. Maintenance of the dredged areas as well as the channel markers are equally important to maintaining the channel’s navigability, and an allocation has been factored into this subcomponent’s cost to address immediate needs for the lifetime of the project. Other activities, such as the installation of river markers, riverbank stabilization, and regular maintenance, must also accompany dredging to ensure that navigability is improved.

TABLE 1.5. ESTIMATED DREDGING OPTIONS AND COSTS

150 200 250 300

m3/sec m3/sec m3/sec

Distance to dredge in km 107.84 61.82 47.14 35.02

Total score with m3 3, 294,315 1,960,683 1,257,009 789,658

Period of month navigation (months)

8 7 6.5 6

Cost of dredging in US$ 13,177,260 7,842,731 5,028,036 3,158,633

Cost CFAF 7,906,000,000 4,705,000,000 3,016,000,000 1,895,000,000

27. Additional works for dredging islets and sandbars to facilitate passage through meanders or flattening areas would increase the costs, while increasing efficiency of travel, but may not be justifiable given the added costs and limitations of resources. Given that an analysis indicated that the morphology of the river is relatively stable and predictable carrying out the additional dredging works is not being considered cost‐effective for the project. Table 1.6 summaries the additional work, but, as indicated above, will be prohibitive in terms of costs.

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TABLE 1.6. ADDITIONAL WORK

150 200 250 300

m3/sec m3/sec m3/sec

Distance to dredge in km 107.84 61.82 47.14 35.02

Total score withm3 3,294,315 1,960,683 1,257,009 789,658

Period of navigation (months) 8 7 6.5 6

Cost of dredging in US$ 13,177,260 7,842,731 5,028,036 3,158,633

Cost of the dredging of the islets + sandbars 44,238,200 44,238,200 44,238,200 44,238,200

Total cost (US$) 57,415,460 52,080,931 49,266,236 47,396,833

Cost CFAF 34,449,000,000 31,248,000,000 29,559,000,000 28,437,000,000

28. The point above is made to underscore that interventions of this type are always based on some technical and financial trade‐off.

29. Channel markers. There is established experience with channel markers along the Niger River and COMANAV and DNH are currently working on the installation of 70 markers since May 2016. There have been channel markers in the past but they have disappeared due to limited maintenance. The PREEFN will support the installation of 27 additional channel markers in the NID to indicate problem areas in such a way that will allow ships to navigate the hazardous segments more safely, and is a complementary activity to any dredging or infrastructural improvements. The sites of the channel markers are geographical identified.

Subcomponent 2.2: Enhancing reliability of river transportation through construction/rehabilitation and maintenance of river docking piers infrastructure (US$1.0 million)

30. The new docks to be created are based on the pre‐feasibility study for Kouakourou but will include similar elements suitable to each site. The plan includes a platform for berthing in the center of 70 m x 50 m slab, bordered upstream by a spike of 70 m long and 30 m x 70‐commerce platform and downstream by a spike. A ramp (above the docking platform) connects it to the trading platform. On the trading platform will be an office, as well as a store, a shelter for passengers and toilets (western closets for men and women). The trading platform and the spikes, built in the riverbed, will protect platform berthing against the flow of water and inclement weather. The entire work is also a barrier for the banks, thus protecting them against erosion. Based on the elements above, the detailed feasibility and subsequent call for tender will be ready by effectiveness of the project:

31. The rehabilitation of the two existing ports at Diafarabé and Macina include the following works, specified to the needs and condition of each site:

The restoration of the existing works on all of the sites concerned

Filling of the cracks

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The reconstruction of crumbled masonry along riverbanks with use of lime as mortar

The strengthening of crumbling infrastructure or works

The strengthening of the slab platform by establishing an 8 cm thick concrete layer of using a polyane film to stop the absorption of moisture on a 10 cm thick layer of sand

The reconstruction of brick access stairs with reinforced concrete

The construction of pretreatment of goods before loading

The strengthening of fencing wire along the banks

The construction of new buildings (toilets and waiting room)

The supply and installation of trash bins for the collection of solid waste

32. Table 1.7 summarizes the works that will be carried out for each site selected.

TABLE 1.7. WORKS FOR EACH SITE SELECTED

Site Type of Intervention

Kouakourou New dock

Diondiori New dock

Youwarou New dock

Macina dock

Protection dam (retaining gabions)

Demolition/resumption of dock ramps

Rehabilitation of the hangars

Recovery of the waterproofing of buildings

Mopti pier

Recovery ramp maintenance

Reinforcement of the structural parts

Various facilities

Stabilization of the base of the wall of the dock between the port and the governorate

Diafarabe dock

Demolition/resumption of dock ramps

Repairs to the buildings and equipment

As recovery work

Creating a point of water (drilling and pump)

Solar lighting

Inspection, cleaning, and maintenance For four years

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33. In addition, a detailed maintenance schedule to ensure upkeep includes

Visual inspection, twice per year

Thorough cleaning, four times per year

Security and health postings (signs, awareness, and deterrence of dumping garbage)

Small repairs

Re‐sealing cracks, plumbing, and electricity

Subcomponent 2.3: Improving socioeconomic opportunities and ecosystem functions of the NID (US$1.0 million)

34. This component has been reduced in a very significant way before the finalization of this project document due to concerns related to the degraded security conditions in the project area that would render the proposed type of activities difficult to implement, supervise, and monitor. Consequently, it is proposed to keep the original title for this subcomponent to keep the integrity of the original integrated approach but reduce its scope to just preparatory work and reintroduce these activities in a future project that will be financed as soon as the security conditions on the ground improve. The activities described below are meant to provide greater context.

35. Mali's rural development sector is characterized by the predominance of family farms, with low productivity; low levels of mechanization; limited knowledge of environmental problems (such as degradation of vegetation and soils, loss of biodiversity, sanitation, and the siltation of waterways); limited control of several major diseases in livestock; low‐intensity farming practices (misuse of fertilizers and improved seeds, lack of livestock feed, and high frequencies of crop failure); limited abilities in water management; and the multitude of stakeholders without real coordination. These farms are also strongly influenced by the vagaries of weather and climate. Regional and local development plans have been developed regularly since the launch of decentralization, but are often not executed due to lack of human and financial resources and the lack of organization of local actors. This creates a lack of investment in key sectors to effectively combat poverty and provide nutritional security.

36. The PREEFN’s investments to improve navigability and port infrastructure in the NID will increase the flow of goods and people and will provide needed investments to increase the number of people with access to livelihoods. In the context of increasing livelihoods of targeted populations in the NID, financial resources from the PREEFN will be used to support activities that reduced the tenuousness of economic activities that largely depend on the annual floods. These activities have been rendered more unpredictable because of diminished or unpredictable water levels resulting from the impacts of climate change or use for human activities. The activities were identified using a participatory and inclusive approach through engagement with a variety of different actors, and will be implemented in a participatory and inclusive manner to meet local needs. The activities will also contribute to strengthening local and regional development plans. The purpose of these investments is to reduce poverty and ensure sustainable development while preserving the ecosystem of the Niger River.

37. Consultations with the communes targeted in the PREEFN identified the following priority activities for investment: irrigated rice, animal husbandry, fishing and aquaculture, market gardens for women, tree crops for youth, reforestation, and information centers and extension services. The activities identified in these subcomponents have been traditionally practiced in the area, but measures will be supported to improve them

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through techniques that have already demonstrated positive results. The investments seek to meet the most pressing needs of local communities, in line with the relevant development plans.

Consultations with Local Population

38. Consultations with local stakeholders yielded the following information related to constraints in different activities as well as proposed solutions.

TABLE 1.8. CONSTRAINTS IDENTIFIED FOR LOCAL POPULATIONS

Activities Constraints Solutions Proposed

Animal husbandry

Agriculture

Lack of pastures in dry and flooded areas (overgrazing);

elevated mortality rate, (distomatose, coal, proliferation of ticks);

lack of water during the dry season;

bush fires destroying available forage; and

cattle theft.

Loss of yield due to the grain‐eating birds, fish, and water birds;

lack of agricultural equipment; and

low yield (lack of self‐sufficiency.

Regeneration of bourgoutières and vetiveraies (vetiver plantations), purchase of feed, payment of fees by nonlocal cattle, vaccination and treatment by veterinarians;

Deepening of some ponds and channels;

Awareness raising and mobilization to combat fires; creation of livestock surveillance committees.

Destruction of nests of the grain‐eating birds, continual monitoring; destruction of adult insects through spraying; protection of rice fields against fish; facilitating of access to credit, creation of agricultural associations, strengthening of capacity of technical support/training agencies; better crop/seed varieties; construction of small dams and small irrigated perimeters; methods for organic manure.

Fishing Weakness of the flood;

lack of fishing equipment;

inadequate fishing equipment;

low production of fish;

The Markala and Sélingué dam water releases

Access to credit; creation of fishing association, revitalization of the fishing co‐operatives;

strengthening of legislation, local agreements for the operation of fishing areas, and use of suitable equipment; fish farming; informational radio broadcasts about the periods of water release from dams.

Forestry Disappearance of inundated forests; felling of trees by herders.

Continual monitoring, illumination, and gun shots.

reforestation, development of local management agreements; awareness raising and information sharing with populations on forest legislation;

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Activities Constraints Solutions Proposed

strengthening, awareness raising, information sharing, and monitoring.

39. Activities of rural community development and sites were identified and selected using a multicriteria analysis of the priorities identified by the communes and local development plans while taking into account potential complementarities and synergies. Field investigations for the selection of sites for village irrigated perimeter (Périmètre irrigué du village, PIV); ponds and pools to develop; and areas to reforest were also carried out following consultations.

40. Investment needs are significant and all municipalities require investments in nearly all of the areas mentioned such as irrigated fields, fishponds, and bourgoutieres.9 This project will not be able to meet all the needs, considering the limitations in available financing. Nevertheless, the investments will seek to serve as a catalyst for further developments using other sources of financing and by demonstrating the mutually reinforcing relationship between livelihood activities and improved river transport.

41. The original intervention strategy of the program was based on the reinforcement of the productivity and competitiveness of the sectors identified through intensification while safeguarding natural resources and the creation of an environment conducive to the development of value chains.

42. Main activities supported. The selected activities under the original and revised scope and their locations derive essentially from the PDSEC multicriteria analysis, regional development plans, and data from workshops held in Ségou and Mopti and supplemented by investigations by the future operators and local populations.

43. The main activities supported include rice production with PIV, market gardens for women with PIV, tree crops with PIV for youth to support agricultural diversification and environmentally sustainable agriculture, fishponds, improved bourgoutières possible through the opening of channels, reforesting in village forests, and treatment and conservation of agricultural products. The sites/localities for different activities have been prioritized based on demand as well as site suitability, with a view toward longer‐term implementation.

44. The quantified objectives for the main rural community development activities originally to be supported by this project are:

136 ha of rice farming with PIV;

27 ha of market gardens with PIV for women;

205 ha tree crops targeting youth;

11.5 ha of fishponds;

1,000 ha ponds to stock with fish;

2,051 ha of bourgoutieres to be restored and/or developed;

9 Inundated area where bourgou, a type of floating grass used for animal fodder, is grown.

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5 delivery service centers to be established;

200 cattle artificially inseminated and improved milk production; and

1,115 ha tree planting to protect channel banks forests.

Activity 1: PIV for Rice Production

45. PIV for rice, with a close system for water control, was adopted as a priority by all the municipalities. It has received particular attention as a means to combat food insecurity and poverty in the NID. Rice remains a valuable asset in the Malian economy and an engine for growth in in the agriculture sector. The interest for this cereal is based on its production potential. Through the adoption of technical methods for intensive production (control of the water planning, transplanting, short‐straw varieties, application of fertilizer, and so on) and application of price incentives for purchase at the producer level, rice production is booming in the country.

46. The major constraints that hamper the development of rice production are lack of capacity, training and organization, and the limitation of available water resources. To overcome these constraints, the following key actions will be supported:

(a) Development of PIV with motor pump equipment, small earthwork equipment, and use of high‐intensity labor. The irrigated perimeter must be developed with the participation of the population.

(b) Building the capacity of producers, producer associations, elected officials, and organizations particularly related to

Water management practices, water towers, and the maintenance of infrastructure and motor pumps;

Strengthening organizational and management committees;

Box 1. Irrigated Lands for Rice Production in Villages

The development of ILV in the NID originates in the weakening of flood events that significantly affected flooded rice

production. The ILV became a popular solution of resiliency due to climate change effects for all social categories

(men, women, and children) and ethnic groups in the zone.

CARE International and Wetlands International under the implementation of PADIN I, PADIN II, and ‘Wetlands and

poverty reduction’ carried on the development of ILV by adding a requirement for beneficiaries. It involves the

implementation of compensatory measures to favor the natural environment of the NID linked to the establishment

of ILV.

Several ‘communes’ villages of Diondiori, Toggore‐Coumbe, Konna, Toggoro‐Kotia, and so on have embraced this

approach of linking the ILV to the improvement of the environment either by planting local species of trees (which

socioeconomic values are known by the population) around the ILV or by reforestation using local species in degraded

wetlands.

Beneficiaries in local populations of the villages can now say, “Beyond the food self‐sufficiency, we thank the ILV

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Information dissemination for public officials with regard to supervising agencies and organizations that provide extension services, such as technical training an education; and

Strengthening technical supervision for intensive cultivation and use of inputs to improve the soil.

(c) Investment. Equipping six service centers in the communes of Djenné and Youwarou with rototillers, mini mills, threshing unit, backhoes, shellers for support to the agricultural development, and other equipment, for example, for threshing and paddy husking.

47. This subprogram will focus on the development of about 136 ha of rice‐growing land and technical assistance measures.

Activity 2: Fruit Trees Groves for Youth

48. The population of the NID is relatively young, and illegal emigration to Europe or moving to neighboring countries and so on in search of better conditions is an increasingly sought option. The socioeconomic situation of the NID and the agropastoral analysis of the area indicate that tree crops (fruit arboriculture) are sustainable in the region and may be of interest to youth populations and contribute to fighting long‐term poverty. The program is designed to achieve irrigated perimeters that establish complete control of water for purposes of tree crops (for example, papaya, mango, guava). Materials needed include equipment for digging wells and solar equipment for generating electricity, five cubic meter basins and latticed fence water towers, small orchard equipment; and micro sprinkler systems. This is a system that has seen positive results in the program of competitiveness and diversification of agricultural production through funding from the World Bank in the regions of Sikasso, Koulikoro, Mopti, Ségou, and the District of Bamako in Mali.

49. Previous investments have demonstrated results by improving the living conditions of several agro entrepreneurs, by increasing production, and productivity of several farms. This program targeting young people with a profitable agricultural activity would be developed in an environmentally sustainable way.

50. In each of seven communes prioritized for this activity, approximately 100 ha will be supported. Each promoter will be required to prepare the soil and conduct planting with the support of program technicians. Labor costs for the first year will be supported by the PREEFN.

Activity 3: Animal Husbandry for Cattle/Dairy

51. In Mali, the size of the herd is among the largest in Africa with more than 8.8 million cattle, 11.3 million sheep, 15.7 million goats (in total 27 million small ruminants), 880,000 camels, and 33 million birds10 (DNPIA 2009). Food, health, and water control remain the essential constraints related to the development of farming and animal husbandry in the NID. Providing feed for animals depends on the richness of the flooded plains of the delta and particularly the production of bourgou, which requires a water height of several meters to grow and is dependent on the flooding of the Niger River and its tributaries. The abundant fodder resources of the Delta are

10 Direction Nationale des Productions et des Industries Animales, revues nationales de l’élevage, 2009.

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related to the vast expanse of natural prairies or ‘bourgoutières’ of about 682,250 ha and year‐round water which facilitates the watering of herds.

52. Owing to the abundant and diverse sources of animal fodder, the Mopti region is one of the most productive areas in the country for animal husbandry. In 2009, milk production potential was estimated at 1,944,202,000 liters of milk from cows, sheep, goats, and camels. The availability of milk for consumption (all species combined) is estimated to be 625,000,000 liters per year for the same year, because of difficulties related to the milk collection, but it should be noted that a large part of this potential is lost due to a lack of adequate means of conserving, locally processing, and/or transporting fresh milk. The livestock, meat, and milk value chains face constraints that reduce their productivity and limit competitiveness. Improving the organization at the level of the ‘dairy basins’ and genetic livestock/meat performance for dairy will contribute to the increasing productivity and competitiveness of the sector.

53. This potential, and especially its more sustainable practice, could be increased through the following activities:

(a) Improve the conditions for breeding, particularly by selecting top specimens and crossing with the exotic breeds through artificial insemination, such as through the program supported by the Kingdom of Morocco. Artificial insemination will improve the local breed for milk production where veterinarian agents will be involved through this project to support the activity. A number of households will be established in villages for the intensive production of milk. This component will involve 200 dairy production centers in five locations selected for intensive culture of the bourgou.

(b) Improve the performance of the dairy herds, particularly by promoting the cultivation of the bourgou forage grass, which is one of the primary sources of protein for animal feed. More specifically, the activities to be supported will include the planning and restoration of bourgoutières, the opening of channels to supply natural areas with adequate water to supply the crop, and the intensive culture of bourgou in perimeters. This practice has had demonstrable results in such municipalities as Korihenze where it is currently practiced, with support of Program of Funds for the development of the Sahelian Zone (FODESA) and financing from International Fund of Agricultural Development (IFAD). The seedlings and regeneration are planned on 2,051 ha in five communes that will feature cuttings or seeds and will benefit from the support for the creation of the irrigated perimeter of bourgou and policy making and the local implementation of committees to oversee the management of bourgoutières.

(c) Improve the potential of the dairy sector to address the milk needs of the population, particularly by implementing a marketing and distribution system that will take into account the entire production and value chain from collection to distribution to consumers. The increased food supply for cattle will lead to an increase in available milk which will not be entirely consumed. The surplus will be collected at different points along the channels that are opened for navigation and transported to markets as an increased source of income. Five dairy centers will be developed in the communes, where there is a grouping of herds for an appropriate period of the year and in areas that are close to markets.

Activity 4: Investments in Fishing/Aquaculture

54. Mali represents a special case in the development of aquaculture in Sub‐Saharan Africa with a hydrographic network in the order of 4,500 km of water with good quality and an annual average temperature

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of 25–30°C. Fishing is practiced in all regions of the country except Kidal. It occurs on all the rivers of the national territory: rivers, lakes, ponds, and so on. There are, however, three main production areas: the NID, Sélingué Lake, and Manantali Lake. With respect to aquaculture, all water bodies and hydroagricultural facilities lend themselves to the promotion of this practice. In addition, the implementation of fishery management programs will establish practices that will promote sustainable exploitation of fish resources. Moreover, the existence of local species such as catfish (Clarias sp.) and carp (Oreochromis niloticus) are widely enjoyed by the local population and are easily sold in the market.

55. Fishing occupies a prominent place in the national economy with regard to food security, job creation, and contribution to national wealth. National production is a significant portion of the national consumption of fish (average annual consumption of 10.5 kg/year/inhabitant) and the creation of jobs (approximately 500,000 jobs, including 73,000 fishermen). The value of exports is estimated at CFAF 52 billion (2,000 CFAF/kg of fresh and 2,500 CFAF/kg of processed).

56. In the face of the progressive depletion of fish stocks, consequences of the precariousness and the vagaries of climatic unpredictability, as well as unsustainable fishing practices, the development of aquaculture and fisheries management today is an important part of the strategy for meeting the nutritional needs of the population. The lack of modern unloading, packaging, conservation, and storage infrastructure leads to significant losses after capture (physical losses are estimated to be 4 percent and 17 percent for quality losses). The constraints related to the supply of inputs (fingerlings, food, and equipment) and the isolation of some areas contribute to the poor living conditions of fishing communities.

57. Programs supported by various partners (World Bank, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, Asian Development Bank, United States Agency for International Development, German Cooperation, the Cooperation Switzerland, the Danish Cooperation, Lux‐development, the Belgian Technical Cooperation, and so on) have been implemented to support aquaculture and fisheries management that have yielded positive results and important lessons. Stocking and management experiences of ponds, the results of the activities to promote fish farming and rizi fish farming have been positive, but resources to promote the activities have remained limited.

58. Conservation, transformation, and commercialization are promising segments of the industry. Many women are involved and demonstrate real know‐how. The following actions will bring a new dynamic to the fishing economy and encourage fishermen to engage in fish farming: construction of small units for conservation of fresh fish, the development and promotion of fish that are smoked and packed in ‘salmon’, the development of appropriate and more hygienic means to transport fresh fish, and the development and diversification of fish farming techniques.

59. To promote the priorities and address the constraints to strengthening the capacities of the actors, the following intervention are considered:

The development of documentaries on the achievements through the realization of an information system on fisheries and aquaculture

Information and support for all actors of the sector by level

The implementation of the management entities of fishing throughout the NID

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Equipping fishermen and fish farmers for better use of facilities and equipment

Equipping women with ‘chorkor’ fish processing ovens

Training beneficiaries in the management of infrastructure, equipment, and using savings

Strengthening the capacity of producer organizations and communities in the management of natural resources and conservation of biodiversity

60. The PREEFN provides for the opening of a number of channels that will fill ponds and bourgoutieres to create fish hatcheries as well as provide supply of water for aquaculture. Improved water availability for fishing and aquaculture activities is a way to assist fishermen within their villages and avoid their displacement in search of other opportunities. The project will specifically support:

The stocking of 1,000 ha of ponds in 13 communities; and

The realization of 11.5 ha of fishponds in nine localities.

Activity 5: Promotion of Revenue‐generating Activities for Women

61. Identification and the implementation of income‐generating activities (IGA) in favor of sensitive/vulnerable segments of the population (women, children, and rural youth) are an important activity of the project. The organization, as well as the technical and financial support to women around irrigated areas, in processing and marketing agricultural, pastoral, and fisheries production are priorities. The project will encourage the empowerment of women, with advice/guidance/technical assistance being adapted to women and provided by project technicians, as well as NGOs.

62. Vegetable gardens. Different field investigations and food and nutrition habits have highlighted the preference of many women and youth for the operation of PIV to cultivate onion, pepper, sweet potato, okra, potato, tomato, and other fruits and vegetables (salad, carrot, cabbage, and so on). Irrigated perimeters of 3 ha to 4 ha (equipped with wells, solar panels, five cubic meter water towers, basins, and fences) with processing equipment and small gardening equipment will be installed for the women organized into groups. At this level, the demand is high among local populations. The best‐organized women groups in each of the eight areas prioritized in the communes will benefit from this investment at a rate of 3 ha to 4 ha per group, altogether approximately 27 ha. In addition to the investment made by the project, women’s groups will receive technical training and capacity building for organization and management.

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63. Enhancing the benefit from surplus production is another means that will be targeted for improving the livelihoods of women and marginalized groups. Rural activities carried out by women, such as the processing and storage of fish and produce, are areas where there can be added value gained from improved practices and a means for improving livelihoods of those practicing these activities. Among the fishing communities (Bozo, Somono, and so on), once fish is caught it is entirely left to the women to prepare, process, store, and/or sell for the benefit of the family. Thus, they have a key opportunity to improve livelihoods if processing is enhanced. The project will equip eight women’s groups with kits for the transformation of vegetable and fish products and better control of all segments of the relevant value chains.

64. Fattening of sheep and goats is another activity that is traditionally carried out by women in the NID, either individually or grouped in associations or cooperatives. Support will be provided for organized women’s groups to purchase small ruminant veterinary products (for sheep or goats) for about US$5,000 per group.

65. Communes in which women’s groups would not benefit from PIV for vegetable gardening will benefit from this activity. About 11 localities are identified, as a reflection of the need for equity and harmonious implementation of the PREEFN. Women engaged in fattening activities will be trained and better organized with the support of the project.

66. Promotion of nutrition education is an important dimension of the fight against malnutrition, and measures to provide information and education will be carried out. Strong advocacy for improving food‐related hygiene through entertainment and cooking demonstrations will be achieved by using relevant media. Reward schemes, such as the provision of prizes, will be awarded to successful organizations to encourage participation.

Activity 6: Protection/Revegetation of Banks and Quays of Riverside Villages

67. This will be carried out in close relationship with activities to combat the degradation of the river and channel banks and the causes of siltation of the river. These activities are relevant to the PREEFN because they have both an environmental and economic component (rational exploitation of timber products).

68. The program includes

Box 2. Establishment of Vegetable Gardens for Women

Previous projects implemented by national and international NGOs showed that the creation of market gardens to help

vulnerable social classes, such as women and children enabled them to be resilient to climate shocks (droughts). The approach

to implementation of market gardens was initially conditioned to two major requirements, one for the project and the other

for the beneficiaries. The first is the system of water abstraction for irrigation of land parcels; the well pumping system should

be powered by solar energy. The second is that the beneficiaries should reinforce the fences by adding a hedge made of small

trees/shrubs from local species that will permanently replace the fence, allowing its use if the market gardens were to be

extended.

The impacts of linking the creation of market gardens and environmental actions (using solar power and creation of tree

hedges), added to the improvement of monetary income for women, nutritional status of their children, and the

strengthening of their organizational capacities are perceivable in many villages and rural communities of the NID, such as

Deboye, Dialloubé, and Konna.

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Planting of 1,115 ha of village groves for the production of service wood and firewood, including plantation of the Acacia Senegal on 1,000 ha in the municipality of Kokry;

Continued awareness raising and dissemination of prototypes of new energy and renewable alternatives to the unsustainable use of wood energy in the NID;

Use of woody material from the opening of channels to make protective fences around forests to form village forests; and

Enhancing of the protection of the banks in masonry by vegetation with vetiver or plants that are not appetizing for consumption by animals.

Activity 7: Training and Capacity‐building Program

69. Rural community development activities will be supported by annual training programs and capacity building of stakeholders to enable greater achievement, as well as promote ownership by the beneficiaries. The training and the strengthening of capacities of the actors are essential for the success of the project objectives. Training and capacity building will concern technical and organizational aspects as indicated in Table 1.9.

TABLE 1.9. TECHNICAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS

Areas Targets Training Themes Themes of Strengthening

Capacities

Rice Producers

Farming

SRI11, deep placement of fertilizer, conditioning, and group marketing

Pumps, maintenance of the irrigation network group management, management of revolving funds

Market gardening Producers, women management, and cooperative associations

Farming techniques, water, conservation, processing products

Solar panels management, maintenance of the irrigation network, management of revolving funds

Arboriculture Developers, management

Location of orchard conservation and processing products.

Marketing products

Fish farming Fishermen, mentoring, and cooperative of fishermen

Technical management of ponds, fish in ponds, keeping food, and fish processing

Transport and stocking, group of fry purchase

11 System of Rice Intensification

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Areas Targets Training Themes Themes of Strengthening

Capacities

Culture of the bourgou

Cooperative breeders, local communities

Farming

Cropping technique, management of the perimeters, the local convention management

Management of the perimeter of bourgou, popular return for farmers

Reforestation Association, cooperative

Technique of reforestation lumber and heating

Exploitation of wood, backup of the wooded area

Gum arabic Cooperative associations, private developers

Implementation of culture; harvesting of the gum, conditioning, and marketing

Marketing of gum and bundling

Nutrition education

Women’s cooperative associations.

Culinary demonstrations, childrens’ nutrition from 0 to 5 years

Village animation

Maintenance of the channels

Channels management committees, committees of sub‐basins, local authorities

Collection of tolls, maintenance of a channel

Organization of work and popular return of activities

Fattening sheep and goats

Women's cooperative association

Technique of fattening and feeding sheep and goats

Organization of fairs and bundling

70. The estimated costs of training and capacity building for thematic areas and materials is US$500,000.

71. Training will be done in two sessions of seven days each for 50 people at the beginning of each activity and during implementation of the activity; about one capacity‐building session every seven days for 50 people at the most appropriate time, based on the realities of implementation.

TABLE 1.10. SUMMARY OF ORIGINALLY IDENTIFIED ACTIVITIES FOR SUBCOMPONENT 2.3

Activity US$

PIV rice 700,000

PIV tree crops 1,900,000

Animal husbandry 1,655,000

Aquaculture/fisheries 4,506,000

IGA for women 1,281,000

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Protection/revegetation of banks and quays of riverside villages through reforestation

1,258,000

Training and capacity building 500,000

Total 11,800,000

72. Of these activities, only the training and capacity building will be financed under this project for an amount equivalent to US$ 1 million. The rest of these activities will be postponed to a future project to be financed when the security situation on the ground improves.

Subcomponent 2.4: Protection and rehabilitation of riverbanks and restoration of channels (US$4.0 million)

73. For the same reason, as in the previous subcomponent, the original scope of Subcomponent 2.4 has been reduced, albeit, in a lesser proportion. The present project will finance only rehabilitation and restoration of lateral channels that will allow floodwater to reach several villages, thus increasing opportunities for improved livelihood in the fishing, farming, and river transportation sectors particularly. In addition, the proposed work will benefit the ecosystem by providing water to a wide range of animal species that rely on it for their survival and reproduction.

74. The network of channels in the NID is essential in the economic life of the populations of the NID. The activities to be implemented under this subcomponent will focus on rehabilitating or opening channels where the natural flows that have been blocked no longer play their essential functions for transportation, filling pools for aquaculture and agriculture, or supplying plains for economic activities. They will also cover channels to create essential functions for the increasing population to enjoy a harmonious life. Under the initial scope in total, 27 channels are identified out of 271.3 km examined for a total of 93 km of channels retained for rehabilitation, as well as biological actions to protect the banks. This includes eight channels to be rehabilitated and three to be created. Tables 2.11 and 2.12 summarize the situation of channels, where the biological protection actions are to be carried out in the context of the creation or rehabilitation of the channels. Under the reduced scope of the project only 1 channel will be targeted for rehabilitation.

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75. The prioritization criteria were set to effectively meet the demands of people. Channels that were too long and wasting water through percolation and infiltration (channels more than 10 km) have been excluded for investments, as well as those who have no clearly defined function in the existing literature or as gleaned from information gathered during consultative workshops. To allow the navigation the pirogues and pinasses small and medium, channel types will be trapezoidal, with the following average dimensions: depth of 2 m, width of 7 m, base width of 3 m, slope of 45°, and section of 10 m2.

Box 3. Rehabilitation of the Channels in the NID

The river channels are an integrated part of the ecosystem dynamics of the NID. They have played an

important role by (a) providing water supply to the major permanent and nonpermanent ponds, (b) flood

plains, (c) constituting migration routes for some fish species during their hatching and growth periods, and

(d) providing transportation routes for materials and people located in villages far away from the main river,

and so on.

Erosion caused by wind and water, deforestation, and unsustainable agricultural practices lead to heavy

sedimentation of the majority of the river channels, which could not serve the abovementioned purposes.

While visiting the local development plans of the NID communes (municipalities), it is not surprising to notice

that almost all the priorities are focused on the rehabilitation of the channels.

Several international NGOs working in the NID area, in collaboration with the communes and local

populations, have rehabilitated some of the channels:

(a) International Union for Conservation of Nature, through the project for the Support of the Management

of Ecosystem Floods in four zones of the NID, rehabilitated the Diangoudiè and Youwarou channels in

addition to the outlet of the Debo Lake.

This rehabilitation allowed the flooding of the adjacent classified forest, the flood plains of 15 villages,

the return of the fisheries’ biodiversity, and the return of the avifauna migrations, as well as facilitated

the river transport between the villages served by the channel and the main river.

(b) Wetlands Internationals, in collaboration with the communes of Dialloubé and the populations of

Kakagnan under the ‘Wetlands and poverty reduction’ project, rehabilitated a main channel that feeds

into a permanent large village pond because of its socioeconomic and ecological importance.

This rehabilitation has allowed (i) the return of two fish species among the ten which had disappeared

due to overfishing and (ii) the increase in fish production revenues, part of which is used for the

maintenance of the rehabilitated channel and the increase in the number of water bird species.

(c) Wetlands International rehabilitated the 5 km channel of the Noga village to benefit the population

living in the village. This restoration allowed the flooding of adjacent plains located in five surrounding

villages, thus boosting flooded rice production, assisting livestock watering, increasing fish production,

and the return of migratory birds’ ecosystem.

Lessons learned: The success of the sustainability of the rehabilitation of channels is closely related to: a) an

establishment of a well‐trained management committee, b) the definition of a maintenance plan for the

channels before it is rehabilitated, this plan should be well documented, signed and agreed upon with all

stakeholders, and c) follow up and monitoring of the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding.

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76. Erosion, by water and wind, has been the primary cause of degradation of riverbanks and channels. During periods of flood, water levels reach the silty‐clay sandbank and carry material to the bed of the river and irrigation channels. The relatively low speed of the floodwaters is also conducive to the formation of bars and sandy islets in the river. Wind erosion is also prominent in the project area for much of the year, which leads to the accumulation of small dunes on the banks of rivers and in the river itself where beaches form. It is important to note that erosion and the displacement of meanders is a natural phenomenon in a sedimentary river such as the Niger River, but an increase in siltation since 1965 indicates that it is important to pursue measures that can be taken to protect against excessive erosion. The measures for bank stabilization will serve to preserve the rehabilitated channel and riverbanks from the main causes of degradation—loss of vegetation, degradation from human and animal usage, and erosion by river current.

77. The protection of the banks concerns not only the banks of the river and its main tributaries but also those of channels that will be created or rehabilitated to improve water availability for production sites and navigation to landlocked areas. These channels will have natural banks (stone or concrete), with an inclination of 45°, and these banks will have to be stabilized by vegetation to avoid degradation. The banks will be stabilized by vegetation (vetiver and afforestation). The depths will be adjusted according to the specific slopes of channels between their confluence in the river and their terminal point.

78. Under the initial project scope vegetative plantations were to be carried out along the banks of the river for a total of 4.5 linear km, where engineering works will be undertaken, and will cover approximately 11.25 ha. These protective vegetative plantations will be installed in a 25 m wide band on each side of the channel (a total of 50 m), which conforms to international practices. The total area covered by protective plantations along the 93 km of channels is approximately 460 ha—adding the 11.25 ha along the riverbank leads to a total of 471.25 ha of protective vegetative plantations along the banks of the river and channels.

79. Maintaining the rehabilitated sites will require actions for monitoring the sites (infrastructure and biological areas), primarily by communities and collectivities. An appropriate arrangement will have to be worked out with localities and communities to develop monitoring procedures, to carry out the works, and for organizing committees. There will also be a need for revisiting local regulations, capacity building of stakeholders, and awareness raising. Indicatively, the practices of protective vegetation that were demonstrated in Banankoro started in 2009, and after seven years they were still in place, illustrating that they can be maintained if effectively managed.

TABLE 1.11. LIST OF PRIORITY CHANNELS ORIGINALLY IDENTIFIED FOR REHABILITATION

Region Name of

Village

Name of Channel to be

Created

Number of Beneficiary Villages of the Channel

Usage of the Channel Approximate Length of the Channel (km)

Mopti Soye Daga Kironguel 26 Fishing, agriculture,

transport 4

Deboye Wango 10 Fishing, agriculture,

transport 10

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Source: Results of the workshops and supplementary investigations of AGRER‐SID.

TABLE 1.12. PRIORITY LIST OF THE CHANNELS TO BE CREATED, AS IDENTIFIED IN THE ORIGINAL PROJECT SCOPE

Commune Name of Village

Name of Channel to be Created

Number of Beneficiary

Villages of the Channel

Usage of the Channel

Approximate Length of the Channel (km)

Kolongo Kayo Bozo Talagneini 10 Agriculture,

Fishing 4.5

Total

10 4.5

Source: Results of the workshops and supplementary investigations of AGRER‐SID.

80. The following works will not be financed under this operation but under a subsequent one that will be prepared and financed as soon as security conditions allow it.

Banks Strengthening

81. Those areas of the riverbank needing engineering works, such as gabions or other infrastructure along 4,500 linear m of the river, include the following priority areas:

The city of Mopti and the village of Me Bouna

Koubi on axis Mopti‐Akka

Ke‐Macina, Koua, streams on the axis of Mopti‐Ke‐Macina

TABLE 1.13. PRIORITY SITES OF BANKS TO BE PROTECTED BY THE CIVIL WORKS

Commune Site Length (m)

Mopti Mopti 1,500

Konna Me Bouna 500

Koubi 500

Kewa Koua 500

Kewa Kouakourou 1,000

Socoura Kama Kobala 10 Irrigated rice, fishing,

bourgoutière 8

Socoura Guimbe 10 Irrigated rice, fishing,

bourgoutière 4

Total

56 26

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Commune Site Length (m)

Ke‐Macina Macina 500

Total 4,500

TABLE 1.14. COSTS FOR WORKS OF RIVERBANK REHABILITATION, CHANNEL OPENING OR RESTORATION, AND PROTECTIVE VEGETATIVE COVER

Work to be Carried Out Length/Size of Area Cost (US$)

Engineering works on the main 4,500 linear m 3,847,500

Rehabilitation of existing channels through excavation

80,000 linear m 3,420,000

Opening new channels through excavation 13,000 linear m 580,000

Protective vegetative plantations for channel banks 93,000 linear m/465 ha 279,000

Protective plantations for riverbanks 4,500 linear m/11.25 ha 285,750

Maintenance and monitoring Over 4 years 166,750

Totals 8,300,000

Component 3: Project Management (US$5.0 million)

82. This component will ensure effective operational planning, monitoring, and implementation of the project. It will finance the operational costs of the ABFN to monitor the environmental and social as aspects of the project and interventions related to Components 1 and Subcomponents 2.3 and 2.4.

83. In addition, this component includes a large provision to take into account the cost of security arrangements that may have to be implemented to secure the work sites, as well as the monitoring and supervision requirements of the project.

Subcomponent 3.1: Operational costs of the ABFN (US$2.5 million)

84. This subcomponent will finance goods, works, workshops, training and operational costs for ABFN related to the implementation of project activities.

Subcomponent 3.2: Equipment and training (from the PPAs) (US$0.5 million)

85. This subcomponent includes goods, workshops, training and operational costs financed by project preparation advances.

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Subcomponent 3.3: Contingencies and security arrangements (US$2.0 million)

86. This subcomponent will finance technical assistance, third party monitoring or other relevant costs associated with additional security needs that will be identified during project implementation.

Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response (US$0)

87. This component, known as the Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC), will be available should the need arise to redirect resources freed up by a future restructuring of the project or other Bank projects in the Mali portfolio. Such resources would be made available to finance emergency response activities and to address crisis and emergency needs. An Immediate Response Mechanism Coordinating Agency and expenditure management procedures will be defined in an Immediate Response Mechanism Operational Manual (IRM/OM), to be prepared separately and approved by the Bank, in line with guidance provided under Investment Project Financing Policy, paragraph 11. In case this component is utilized, the project will be restructured to allocate financing, revise the PDO and indicators, and detail implementation arrangements.

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Annex 1 ‐ Appendix 1: Long List of Sites Considered before Prioritization

1. Thirty‐seven sites were identified along the river as needing engineering works to stabilize the banks due to erosion and a total of 50.69 km, of which 4.5 km were identified as the priorities in six sites.

Sites on Niger River Identified as Needing Strengthening Through Engineering Works

Axis Site

Number Site or Village Latitude_N Longitude_W Length (km)

Mopti‐Akka 1 Mopti 14,52329 –4,19835 1.5

Mopti‐Akka 2 Nantaga 14,54469 –4,20897 3

Mopti‐Akka 3 Namara Daga 14,60679 41,7660 n.a.

Mopti‐Akka 4 Gnimi Tongon 14,59779 –4,1766 0.1

Mopti‐Akka 5 Alpha Koira 14,60558 –4,17675 0.04

Mopti‐Akka 6 Nemede 14,69166 –4,15754 1

Mopti‐Akka 7 Wandiaka 14,67712 –4,15425 1

Mopti‐Akka 8 Daka (unnamed) 14,71931 –4,0874 1

Mopti‐Akka 9 Komio 14,82336 –4,06265 0.05

Mopti‐Akka 10 Sinssen 14,48243 –4,05038 1

Mopti‐Akka 11 Kontaga Daga 14,8898 –4,0713 1

Mopti‐Akka 12 Kontaga 14,9035 –4,01114 1

Mopti‐Akka 13 Koubi Daga 14,92816 –3,94893 1.5

Mopti‐Akka 14 Koubi 14,9216 –3,94998 1.5

Mopti‐Akka 15 AFO Mamady 15,02329 –3,88986 1

Mopti‐Akka 16 Denengo 15,05437 –3,90494 5

Mopti‐Akka 17 Me Bouna 15 — 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 18 SARE Seny1 14,38277 –4,23934 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 19 SARE Seny2 14,46837 –4,25151 1

Mopti‐Kayo 20 Gomi1 14,454516 –4,25807 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 21 Gomi2 14,441163 –4,26823 2

Mopti‐Kayo 22 Daga without name 14,06472 –5,17048 2

Mopti‐Kayo 23 Tora 14,00996 –5,21191 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 24 New Bozo 14,17214 –4,88608 1.5

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Sites on Niger River Identified as Needing Strengthening Through Engineering Works

Axis Site

Number Site or Village Latitude_N Longitude_W Length (km)

Mopti‐Kayo 25 Site any 14,10228 –5,1444 2

Mopti‐Kayo 26 Site any 14,42291 –4,35449 1

Mopti‐Kayo 27 Daga Bory 14,413 –4,37059 3

Mopti‐Kayo 28 Cissebougou 14,49763 –4,21141 0.7

Mopti‐Kayo 29 Sare Seny3 14,48718 –4,23823 0.3

Mopti‐Kayo 30 Koua 14,21467 –4,72836 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 31 Unspecified 14,21794 –4,79223 2

Mopti‐Kayo 32 Unspecified 14,24071 –4,51937 3

Mopti‐Kayo 33 Islets 14,25838 –4,52949 5

Mopti‐Kayo 34

Unspecified‐Kouakourou1

14,2562 –4,47258 1.5

Mopti‐Kayo 35

Unspecified‐Kouakourou2

14,26946 –4,48392 1.5

Mopti‐Kayo 36 Saouna 14,34132 –4,37639 0.5

Mopti‐Kayo 37 Danguere Sono 14,28363 –4,46175 1.5

Total 50.69

2. Five sites were identified for potential new port creation and three retained in the original project; three COMANAV ports were identified for rehabilitation and two were retained in the reduced project scope (minus Mopti).

Sites of Potential New or Rehabilitated Potential River Ports

Cercle Commune Locality River port Comment

Djenné Kewa Kouakourou Kouakourou New construction (dock)

Ténenkou Tenenkou Tenenkou Tenenkou Securing the navigable channel of the already completed quay

Diondiori Diondiori Diondiori New construction (dock)

Youwarou Deboye Akka Akka New construction (dock)

Dongo Youwarou

Youwarou Youwarou New construction (port)

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Mopti Mopti Mopti Mopti Rehabilitation of the port of COMANAV

Dialloube Kakagna

Saga

Kakagna

Saga

New construction

Diafarabe Diafarabe Diafarabe Rehabilitation of the port of

COMANAV

Macina Macina Macina Macina Rehabilitation of the port of COMANAV

Total Activities Studied and Priorities Retained for Funding under the Project

Activity Total Number Examined (km,

number)

Total Cost Estimates (US$)

Priorities Identified

(Number or km)

Amount of Priority

Actions (US$)

Riverbank reinforcement (engineering)

50.69 km

(37 sites)

43,492,020 4.5 km (6 sites) 3,847,500

Channel rehabilitation 271.3 km (27 channels)

11,635,000 79.8 km (8 channels)

3,420,000

New channels to be opened

48 km (5 sites) 2,060,000 13 km (3 sites) 580,000

New port creation 5 6,300,000 3 3,800,000

Port rehabilitation 3 450,000 3 450,000

Biological riverbank and channel rehabilitation

16,100 ha 9,665,000 471.25 ha 285,750

Dredging 11.3 million m3 57,420.000 3.3 million m3 13,200,000

Installation of channel markers

27 markers 25,000

Socioeconomic activities

Irrigated rice 680 ha 3,100,000

Irrigated tree crops 205 ha 3,100,000

IGA for women 27 ha of market gardens, including seeds, 11 locations for ovine/caprine

1,565,000

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Aquaculture/fisheries 2,450 ha of stocking ponds, 11.5 ha of fishponds

9,510,000

Animal husbandry 2,051 ha of bourgou, 5 dairy centers

1,435,000

Reforestation 1,115 ha 990,000

Training and capacity building

— —

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Annex 1 ‐ Appendix 2: Detailed Cost Table and Tentative Implementation Schedule

Name Cost in US$

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Component 1: Strengthening the strategic management of the Niger River resources

11,000,000 4,925,000 2,615,000 1,928,750 1,148,750 382,500

Subcomponent 1.1: Strengthening capacity for environmental monitoring of the Niger River

5,500,000 1,525,000 1,750,000 1,223,750 843,750 157,500

Phase 1: Setting up the Observatory

475,000 20.0% 20.0% 30.0

% 30.0%

Purchase hardware/equipment:

80,000

Installation/layout of the server/computer room

30,000

Installation and configuration of the

equipment; 290,000

Training/technology transfer:

50,000

Workshop / Communication/awareness

25,000

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Phase 2: operating costs for the duration of the project

525,000 35.0% 35.0% 30.0%

Capacity strengthening of ABFN

3,300,000 20.0% 30.0

% 30.0% 20.0%

Training 500,000

Data collection, measuring equipment

2,800,000

Conception of an hydrological model of the NID

500,000 50.0% 50.0%

Communication, awareness and public participation program

200,000 25.0% 25.0

% 25.0% 25.0%

Studies towards enhancing the overall hydrological and ecological functions of the NID

500,000 25.0% 35.0

% 40.0%

Subcomponent 1.2: Supporting strategic management of infrastructure, resources and stakeholders in the NID

5,500,000 3,400,000 865,000 705,000 305,000 225,000

Support for communes in the

200,000 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

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management of docking piers infrastructure

Stakeholder engagement with pinasses operators, formalization system

500,000 25.0

% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Training/technology transfer: staff training on improving pinasses construction

300,000 25.0

% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Training/technology transfer: staff training on improving dredging capabilities

500,000 25.0

% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Capacity building of stakeholders and communication/awareness raising/ stakeholder engagement

500,000 20.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Study of institutional and regulatory framework related to management of the Niger River

500,000 30.0% 30.0% 40.0

%

Preparation of pre‐feasibility and feasibility studies (PPA)

1,800,000 100.0%

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Preparation of safeguards instruments (PPA)

1,200,000 100.0%

Component 2: Enhancing viability of socio‐economic activities contributing to climate change resilience

11,800,000 800,000 1,855,000 3,245,000 3,110,000 2,790,000

Subcomponent 2.1: Improving river transportation in the NID through targeted dredging and maintenance of navigation channels

5,800,000 440,000 685,000 1,425,000 1,625,000 1,625,000

Dredging (for 7 of the initial 19 sandbars identified)

3,250,000 30.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Acquisition of specialized boat for rescue and repair of stranded vessels.

800,000 30.0% 70.0

%

Supervision engineer for subcomponent 1 activities

250,000 30.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Installing 27 channel markers and maintenance for 4 years

500,000 40.0% 25.0

% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0%

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Technical and financial contingency for subcomp. 1 activities

1,000,000 30.0% 35.0% 35.0%

Subcomponent 2.2: Enhancing reliability of river transportation in the NID through construction/rehabilitation and maintenance of river port infrastructure

1,000,000 60,000 330,000 440,000 150,000 20,000

New port infrastructure at Kouakourou,

0 25.0% 30.0

% 30.0% 15.0%

New port infrastructure at Diondori,

0 25.0

% 30.0% 30.0% 15.0%

New port infrastructure at Youwarou

0 25.0% 30.0% 30.0% 15.0%

Rehabilitation of Macina port

250,000 20.0

% 40.0% 40.0%

Rehabilitation of Mopti port

0 20.0% 40.0% 40.0%

Rehabilitation of Diafarabe port

250,000 20.0% 40.0% 40.0%

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Supervision engineer for subcomponent 2.2 activities

200,000 15.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0%

Inspection, cleaning and maintenance for 5 years

100,000 20.0

% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0%

Technical and financial contingency for subcomp. 2.2 activities

200,000 15.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5.0%

Subcomponent 2.3: Improving socio‐economic opportunities and ecosystemic functions of the NID

1,000,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000

Training and capacity building

1,000,000 20.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Subcomponent 2.4 Protection and rehabilitation of river banks and restoration of channels

4,000,000 100,000 640,000 1,180,000 1,135,000 945,000

Opening of a new channel ‐ Talagnei (4,500 linear meters commune Kolongo)

3,200,000 15.0

% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0%

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Rehabilitation of side channels‐Daga‐Kironguel, Wango, Kam‐Kobala, Guimbe (26,000 linear meters ‐communes of Soye, Deboye, Socoura)

0 20.0

% 40.0% 25.0% 15.0%

Supervision engineer for subcomponent 2.4 activities

300,000 20.0

% 40.0% 25.0% 15.0%

Inspection, cleaning and maintenance for 5 years

500,000 20.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Component 3: Project Management

5,000,000 1,625,000 900,000 900,000 900,000 675,000

ABFN operational costs for oversight of component 1 and sub‐components 2.3 and 2.4

2,500,000 25.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%

MTPIU operational costs for oversight of subcomponents 2.1 and 2.2

0 25.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%

Project Preparation Advance for equipment and training (from advance)

500,000 100.0%

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Contingency for additional arrangements related to security

2,000,000 25.0% 20.0

% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%

Component 4: Contingency response

0

TOTAL 27,800,000 7,350,000 5,370,000 6,073,750 5,158,750 3,847,500

Annual disbursement ratio 26% 19% 22% 19% 14%

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ANNEX 2: IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS

COUNTRY : Mali Mali ‐ Economic & Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River

Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

1. Project oversight and leadership. The project will be under the overall oversight of a Project Steering Committee chaired by the Minister in charge of Environment and vice‐chaired by the Minister in charge of Transportation. The ABFN will have the responsibility of the Secretariat of the PSC and will also chair a Project Technical Committee for Coordination and Monitoring (vice‐chaired by the DNTTMF). At these two levels, the relevant stakeholders from other ministries and local governments will be represented as appropriate. An inter‐ministerial decision will update the composition of these two bodies before project effectiveness.

2. Project implementation for day‐to‐day activities will be the task of ABFN under the general oversight of the PTCCM and the overall oversight of the PSC.

FIGURE 2.1. GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING OF THE PREEFN

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3. In addition to its technical staff based in Bamako, the ABFN will also have the following staff based in its Mopti office:

(a) A specialist in river hydrology

(b) A specialist in rural engineering

(c) A specialist in civil engineering

(d) A specialist in M&E

(e) A social development specialist (gender and vulnerable groups)

(f) An environmental/a natural resources specialist

(g) A GIS specialist

4. The ABFN was established in 2002, by decree 02‐289/P‐RM. It has, however, been relatively ineffective in the past due to lack of resources and unclear mandate.

5. Governance structure of ABFN. The ABFN is governed by a 25‐member multisector Board of Directors chaired by the Minister in charge of the Environment and includes the following representatives:

Public Officials

(1) Chair: Ministry responsible for the Environment

(1) Ministry responsible for Water and Energy

(1) Ministry responsible for Agriculture

(1) Ministry responsible for Animal Husbandry and Fishing

(1) Ministry responsible for Finance

(1) Ministry responsible for Territorial Management

(1) Ministry responsible for Communication

(1) Ministry responsible for Scientific Research Local Collectivities

(1) Regional Assembly of Sikasso

(1) Regional Assembly of Ségou

(1) Regional Assembly of Koulikoro

(1) Regional Assembly of Mopti

(1) Regional Assembly of Tombouctou

(1) Regional Assembly of Gao

(1) Regional Assembly of Kidal

(1) District of Bamako

(1) Association of Malian Municipalities Users

(2) Permanent Assembly of Malian Chambers of Agriculture

(1) Malian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

(1) Malian Energy

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(1) River transport

(1) Consumers

(1) Potable water supply operators Personnel Representative

(1) Representative from the ABFN

Project Administration Mechanisms

6. Activities and works to be undertaken will rely on consultations at the commune (cercle) level and will, to the greatest extent possible, reinforce existing processes and procedures rather than build new ones. The activities will build on and feed into local development plans, PDESC, which are considered consultative and participatory in their identification of local development priorities. Activities at the level of cercle will be supervised by local government officials (mayors and municipal council members, as well as decentralized ministry agencies); local communities; NGOs; interest groups; private sector operators; and specialized technical services.

7. Contracts for works and services will be established by the ABFN while the management and supervision of works in different regions will be carried out in close collaboration with local authorities and communities. Works and services will be based on feasibility studies that will include participatory consultation processes. This arrangement of an independent agent is a measure to provide an additional level of transparency and oversight. A mechanism for participatory monitoring will also be established so that local stakeholders have a sense of ownership of the works that are to be undertaken.

8. The Project Implementation Manual will include a description of the approach for monitoring cases of Gender Based Violence including measures to improve awareness on the issue.

Financial Management

9. The precise role of the FM specialists will be described in the Project Implementation Manual.

A‐ Financial Management 10. A financial management assessment of Agence du Bassin du Fleuve Niger (ABFN) was conducted during preparation to check whether this Agency can manage the proposed Project considering the country’s post‐conflict status. The objectives of the assessment were to determine whether ABFN has adequate FM arrangements in place to ensure that: (a) the funds will be used efficiently and effectively for the intended purposes, and that the entity is capable of correctly and completely recording all transactions and balances related to the project; (b) the project’s financial reports will be prepared in an accurate, reliable, and timely manner; (c) the entity’s assets will be safely guarded; and (d) the project will be subjected to auditing arrangements acceptable to the World Bank. The assessment complied with the World Bank Directive Financial Management Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing operation effective March 1, 2010 and as last revised on February 10, 2017.

11. The main findings arising from this assessment conducted in November 2017 are like those outlined in the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) and other public financial management (PFM) assessment reports. The 2016 assessment revealed that, besides the apparent strong policy and legislative

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frameworks and systems including detailed procedures for procurement and financial management, the Government is still struggling with compliance and effective implementation. The compliance with internal control rules and the effectiveness of internal audits need to be improved. Furthermore, accounting and reporting, as well as external scrutiny and audits, are reported to be weak. ABFN faces capacity shortages in the areas of FM human resources; and the computerized system in place for budget execution (PRED) and financial reporting (AICE) faces some challenges similar to those revealed in the PEFA and other PFM assessment reports. The assessment concluded that the financial management arrangements of the project are generally acceptable and the overall financial management risk for the project is high before mitigation measures, and with mitigation measures agreed, the financial management residual risk is rated substantial. The residual FM risk of the project was rated as substantial mainly due to the lack of experience in World Bank procedures. The other factor explaining the substantial risk is in the control environment including – establishment of a new PIU to be duly staffed. The recommendations from the FM assessment have been incorporated in the Financing Agreement and this document.

12. Financial Management will satisfy the World Bank’s minimum requirements under Investment Project Financing Policy and Directive once mitigation measures have been implemented. An FM Action Plan to enhance the FM arrangements for the project is included in this annex.

Risk assessment and mitigation

13. Financial management assessments of the implementing entity ABFN were conducted during 2017 by the World Bank. The World Bank’s principal concern is to ensure that project funds are used effectively and efficiently for the intended purposes. Assessment of the risks that the project funds will not be so used is an important part of the FM assessment work. The risk features are determined based on two elements: (a) the risk associated with the project (inherent risk) and (b) the risk linked to a weak control environment for the project implementation (control risk).

14. The assessment revealed that the ABFN does not have sufficient FM capacity in place to meet World Bank requirements. The content of these risks is described in Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 Major weaknesses and FM action plan to reinforce the control environment

Topic Major weaknesses FM action plan to reinforce the control environment

Staffing The ABFN accounting team is composed of 3 people. A CV analysis shows that this team does not have the minimum experience required for the accounting and financial management of the project. Similarly, the ABFN has a management controller who has no experience in project auditing

- Recruitment of one FM Officer familiar with Bank FM procedures

- Recruitment of one internal auditor familiar with World Bank project procedures (FM, Procurement and M&E).

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FM action plan

15. The action plan below indicates the actions to be taken to strengthen the project financial management system.

Internal control

The ABFN does not have its own specific manual of procedures and the control system in place is related to the system of public finances in Mali. ABFN does not have accounting software in place.

- Installation of an accounting

software for the Project and training of users

- Elaboration of the PIM including financial, administrative, accounting procedures

External control ABFN does not have an external auditor. The finances are managed through public accountants who produced annual accounts submitted to the supreme court.

Appointment of an external auditor

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Table 2.2 Financial management action plan

Issue/Topic Remedial Action Recommended Responsible Body/Person

Completion Date

FM Effectiveness Conditions

Staffing Recruitment of project FM Officer familiar with Bank FM procedures completed and contracts signed

ABFN Three months after effectiveness

No

Recruitment of one internal auditor familiar with World Bank requirements

ABFN Three months after

effectiveness

No

Information system accounting software

Installation of an accounting software for the Project and training of the users

ABFN Three months after

effectiveness

No

Internal control

Elaboration of a Project Implementation Manual including financial, administrative, accounting procedures

ABFN Before effectiveness

Yes

External auditing

Appointment of an external auditor completed and contract signed

ABFN Five months after

effectiveness

No

Planning and Budgeting Arrangements

16. Planning and budgeting processes of the project will follow the guidance detailed in the Instruction No. 14‐2628/MEF‐SG signed by the MEF on August 12, 2014. For this project, ABFN will coordinate preparation of a consolidated Annual Work Plan and Budget (AWPB) to implement project activities, considering the project’s components. The work plan and budgets will identify the activities to be undertaken and the roles of the respective parties involved in the implementation including the ABFN and other implementing entities. The AWPB will provide detailed information on the amount allocated to each implementing entity per activity showing unit costs and quantities. Annual work plans and budgets will be consolidated into a single document by the FM unit of the ABFN. The AWPB will be submitted for approval to the Project Technical Committee, and thereafter to the Bank. There should be no objection later than 30 November of the year preceding the year that the work plan should be implemented.

Key Accounting Policies and Accounting Software

17. An integrated financial and accounting system will be put in place and used by the FM unit of the PCU. The project code and chart of accounts will be developed to meet the specific needs of the project and documented in the manual of procedures drafted as part of the PIM. The prevailing accounting policies and procedures in line with the West African Francophone countries accounting standards––SYSCOHADA––currently

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in use in ongoing World Bank‐financed operations in Mali will apply. The accounting systems, policies, and financial procedures used by the project will be documented in the PIM.

18. For the project to deliver on its objectives, a computerized financial management system will be developed based on a specific project accounting software in use in other projects in the Mali portfolio that must be purchased and installed. This software should be capable of recording transactions and reporting project operations in a timely manner, including preparing withdrawal applications and periodic interim financial reports (IFR and annual financial statements). In summary, the system should integrate budgeting, operating, and cost accounting systems to facilitate monitoring, evaluation, and reporting.

Internal Control and Internal Auditing

19. The internal control system is intended to ensure the (i) effectiveness and efficiency of operations: (ii) reliability of financial reporting; and (iii) compliance with applicable laws and regulations. For this project, the accounting, financial and administrative procedures to be developed in the PIM will document, explain, and describe work processes, information flow, authorization and delegation of authority, timing, job segregation, automatic and sequential controls, compliance with project objectives, and micro and macro rules and regulations. Applying the procedures set up in the PIM will be mandatory for all staff at all levels. In addition to the PIM, all rules of the ABFN that do not conflict with it will also apply to the project.

20. In addition, the internal auditor (individual consultant) located at the ABFN will conduct daily reviews of the project expenditures including physical verifications of acquisition of works, goods, and services. All deficiencies or circumvented practices identified will be communicated by the internal auditor in a timely manner to the minister, and/or senior management of the project, mainly the Technical Committee and the Coordinator, for immediate corrective action as appropriate. One copy of such report also will be communicated to the Bank.

Disbursements and Funds Flow

21. Disbursements under the project will be carried out in accordance with the provisions of the Disbursement Guidelines for Investment Project Financing dated February 2017, the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter and the Financing Agreement.

22. One bank account “Designated Account” (DA) will be opened at commercial bank on terms and conditions acceptable to the World Bank to facilitate payment for eligible expenditures. The DA will be managed by the ABFN according to the disbursement procedures described in the Project Implementation Manual and the Disbursement Letter. Quarterly replenishment will be required accompanied by the disbursement and procurement plans and the relevant supporting documents. The DA will be managed by the FM Specialist of the implementation unit (ABFN) and denominated in XOF.

23. These accounts will be managed according to the disbursement procedures described in the PIM and fiduciary arrangements included and agreed in the Subsidiary Agreement. An initial deposit will be released by the World Bank at the request of the PIU upon effectiveness. Payments to Implementing Partner organizations (for example firms, contractors, NGO, government specialized entities), services providers and suppliers will be made in accordance with the payments modalities, as specified in the respective contracts and Memorandum of Understanding. In the case of payments to UN agencies, the special World Bank disbursement procedures will

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be used to establish a “Blanket Commitment.” The “Blanket Commitment” will be set up for the UN agency for the full amount to be transferred to the UN agency as an Advance. The credit will finance 100 percent of eligible expenditures of the project inclusive of tax.

24. Upon project effectiveness, transaction‐based disbursements will be used. An initial advance up to the ceiling of the DA; representing 4 months forecasted Project expenditures paid though the DA will be made into the designated account and subsequent disbursements will be made on a monthly basis against submission of Statements of Expenditures (SOE) or records as specified in the DL reporting on the use of the initial/previous advance. Thereafter, the option to disburse against submission of quarterly unaudited IFR (also known as Report‐based disbursements) could be considered subject to the quality and timeliness of the IFRs submitted to the Bank and the overall FM performance and arrangements as assessed in due course. In the case of the use of the report‐based disbursement, the DA ceiling will be equal to the cash forecast for two quarters as provided in the quarterly unaudited IFR. If and when IFRs are used as the basis of disbursements, the contents and format will be revised to include disbursement‐related information. In addition to the “advance” method, for contracts above a predetermined threshold for eligible expenditures (for example, 20 percent of the DAs ceiling), the option of disbursing the funds through direct payments to a third party also will be available. Another acceptable method of withdrawing proceeds from the IDA credit is the special commitment method, whereby IDA may pay amounts to a third party for eligible expenditures to be paid by the Recipient under an irrevocable Letter of Credit (LC).

Disbursement of funds to beneficiaries, contractors, suppliers and Implementing Partners including UN Agencies: 25. ABFN will make payments to implementing agencies, contractors, and suppliers, in regard to the specified activities in the project components. Payments will be made in accordance with the payment modalities specified in the respective contracts/conventions. The criteria for payment, reimbursement, and evidence for services delivered will be detailed in the PIM. ABFN may also consider the findings of the internal audit function while approving the payments. The internal auditor and the FM team will reserve the right to verify the expenditures ex‐post, and refunds might be requested for non‐respect of contractual/convention, such as Delegated Management Agency clauses. Misappropriated activities could result in the suspension of financing for a given entity.

26. When a UN agency is used as implementing agency or a supplier, upon signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government and UN agency, application for withdrawal of proceeds will be prepared by the ABFN and submitted to the Bank. The special World Bank disbursement procedures will be used to establish a “Blanket Commitment” to allow the amount to be advanced. Funds withdrawn from the IDA credit account will be deposited directly into the UN bank account provided by the UN agency for the project activities to be implemented by that UN agency. The amount advanced will be documented through the quarterly unaudited Interim Financial Reports as actual expenditures are incurred by the UN agency.

Flow of Funds

27. Funds flow will be from the DAs to suppliers, contractors’ accounts.

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Figure 2.2 Flow of Funds

Direct payment

Flow of funds

Flow of documents

Local taxes

28. Funds will be disbursed in accordance with project categories of expenditures and components, as shown in the Financing Agreement. Financing of each category of expenditure/component will be authorized at 100 percent inclusive of taxes as per the current Country Financing Parameters approved for Mali.

Financial Reports

29. Financial reports will be designed to provide quality and timely performance information for project management, the World Bank, and other relevant stakeholders. The formats of the financial reports have been agreed. The quarterly IFR includes the following financial statements: (i) statement of sources of funds and project revenues and uses of funds; (ii) statement of expenditures classified by project components and or disbursement category (with additional information on expenditure types and implementing agencies as appropriate), showing comparisons with budgets for the reporting quarter, the year, and cumulatively for the Project life; (iii) cash forecast; (iv) explanatory notes; and (v) Designated Account activity statements. The

IDA

ABFN

DA (XOF)

SERVICES, GOODS PROVIDERS (Contractors, Suppliers)

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quarterly IFR will be prepared and submitted to the Bank within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter and will reflect the activities implemented directly by ABFN as well as any UN agency and other implementing entities.

30. In compliance with International Accounting Standards and World Bank requirements, the project will produce annual consolidated financial statements as a responsibility of ABFN. These include: (i) a Balance Sheet that shows Assets and Liabilities; (ii) a Statement of Sources and Uses of Funds showing all the sources of project funds, expenditures analyzed by project component and or category; (iii) a Designated Account Activity Statement; (iv) a Summary of Withdrawals using Statements of Expenditures, listing individual withdrawal applications by reference number, date, and amount; and (v) Notes related to significant accounting policies and accounting standards adopted by management and underlying the preparation of financial statements. The financial statements will constitute the entry point of the external auditor’s annual diligence.

Auditing Arrangements

31. Due to the capacity issues of the Supreme Audit Institution, (Section of Accounts of the Supreme Court) a qualified external audit firm will be recruited under terms of reference and procedures acceptable to the Bank. This firm will annually audit the project’s financial statements. ABFN will prepare the terms of reference for the audit, and the selection process will be launched not later than four months after project effectiveness. The scope of the audit will cover the activities implemented at central and decentralized levels by the implementation agencies and any partner implementing agencies. Activities managed directly by any UN agency will be excluded from the scope of the external auditor appointed by the Government.

32. The annual audited financial statements together with the auditor’s report and management letter covering identified internal control weaknesses will be submitted to the Bank no later than six months after the end of each fiscal year. A single audit opinion will be issued that covers project income and expenditures, designated accounts, and the IFR. The report will also include specific controls such as compliance with procurement procedures and financial reporting requirements and consistency among financial statements, management reports, and field visits (such as physical control). The audit report will refer to any incidence of noncompliance, ineligible expenditures, and misusage identified during the audit mission.

Table 2.3 Audit Reports

Audit Report Due Date

The project audit reports (audit report and management letter)

Not later than June 30 (Year N) if effectiveness has occurred before June 30 (Year N‐1).

Not later than June 30 (N+1) if effectiveness has occurred after June 30, ( N‐1)

Implementation Support Plan

33. Based on the outcome of the FM risk assessment, the following implementation support plan is proposed. The objective of the implementation support plan is to ensure the project maintains a satisfactory FM system throughout its life.

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Table 2.4 FM Implementation Support Plan

FM Activity Frequency

Desk reviews

Interim financial reports review Quarterly

Audit report review of the program Annually

Review of other relevant information such as interim internal control systems reports

Continuous as they become available

On‐site visits

Review of overall operation of the FM system (Implementation Support Mission)

Twice a year

Monitoring of actions taken on issues highlighted in audit reports, auditors’ management letters, internal audits, and other reports

As needed

Transaction reviews As needed

Capacity‐building support

FM training sessions During implementation and as and when needed

Governance Anticorruption measures.

34. The risk of irregularities and corruption within the project activities is substantial given the country context and sector performance. In addition, the lack of appropriate or effective oversight mechanisms could jeopardize project implementation. Appropriate fiduciary arrangements have been designed and put in place to mitigate these risks; some measures to improve transparency such as providing information on the project status (publication of project audited financial statements on its website); and recruitment of a dedicated FM Officer familiar with World Bank FM procedures and internal auditor.

Procurement

35. The procurement arrangements for the project have been designed considering the weakness of national procurement rules and procedures and experience in procurement carried out under other World Bank‐financed projects.

Reference to National Procurement Regulatory Framework

36. The Country Procurement Assessment Review for Mali was carried out in 2007 and an evaluation of the national procurement system based on Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD)/Development Assistance Committee (DAC) methodology was conducted in September 2011 under European Union funding. The assessment of the procurement regulation highlighted that the existing procurement principles and most of the procedures needed to be strengthened. The evaluation of the quality of national procurement system was done based on the OECD/DAC ‘Methodology of national procurement systems

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assessment’. The recommended actions include (a) strengthening the legislative and regulatory framework; (b) strengthening the institutional and management capacity; and (c) reinforcing the integrity and transparency of procurement.

37. In this regard, the Government has taken the following steps: (a) adopted an action plan based on the findings of the Country Procurement Assessment Review; (b) set up a new legal and regulatory framework under the new Procurement Code; (c) issued procurement regulations and standard bidding documents; and (d) created a regulatory body for public procurement and established procurement units in regions and technical ministries, including the Ministry of Finance.

38. In 2013, under the initiative of the West African Economic Monetary Union (WAEMU) Commission, the World Bank funded a study on how to boost budget execution for greater development impact. Based on data suggesting that a significant part of the capital investment budgets of WAEMU member states is underspent, this study was undertaken with a view to providing a comprehensive review of the systems, processes, and practices used by Finance and Procurement to manage capital expenditure and identify practical recommendations that would allow countries to enhance the levels of budget execution. The country report of Mali recommended a series of actions to reduce the huge delays in the procurement process in Mali and improve the value of money. The actions plan of this study at the regional level was approved on February 28, 2014, when the meeting of the ‘Comité d’Experts’ (Experts Committee) of the WAEMU was held in Burkina Faso. Mali had implemented some of the measures of the action plan before its approval by the Council of Ministers of WAEMU held in June 28, 2014, in Dakar.

39. A Prime Ministerial Decree (Decree No. 2014‐0256/PM‐RM), passed on April 10, 2014, determines authorities in charge of conclusion and approval of contracts and raises the threshold for concluding and approving for all authorities. This contributes, in theory, to reducing the time of the procurement cycle of a number of contracts. The ministerial decree signed on April 25, 2014, confirmed the new thresholds for concluding and approving contracts and reduces the time limit for the different stages of the cycle of procurement and it removes the double review Government/donors for contracts subject to the prior review of donors (Decree No. 2014‐1323/MEF‐SG). These different measures aim to reduce the procurement cycle and boost budget execution.

40. The current regulation on Public Procurement in Mali is the Decree No. 2015‐0604 /P‐RM dated September 25, 2015, and rules for applying Decree No 2015‐3721/MEF‐SG dated October 22, 2015. These new provisions (a) retained the elimination of the double review of Government/donors for contracts subject to the prior review of donors; (b) extended the scope of the code to all contracts regardless of the amount; and (c) presented new procurement methods.

41. The World Bank assessed the country procurement regulation and found that the principles and most of the procedures were in compliance with World Bank standards for procurement. In general, it is considered that the country’s new procurement procedures do not conflict with the World Bank Guidelines. But in case of any conflict, the provisions of the World Bank prevail. However, for the NCB procedure for goods and works to become acceptable to the World Bank, some special provisions will be required regarding advertisement, access for foreign bidders to participate in NCB, limitation of domestic preference, deadlines for submission of bids, evaluation and contract award process, standard bidding documents, fraud and corruption clauses in bidding documents, inspection by the World Bank, obstructive practices, and debarment under national system.

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Requirements for NCB

42. NCB will be acceptable to the World Bank, subject to the following procedures and as reflected in the Financing Agreement:

(a) Advertising. The General Procurement Notice (GPN) would be advertised in the United Nations Development Business (UNDB) online and on the World Bank’s external website. Specific invitation to bids would be advertised in at least one national widely circulated newspaper or on a widely‐used website or electronic portal of the recipient with free national and international access.

(b) Standard bidding documents. All standard bidding documents to be used for the project shall be found acceptable to the Bank before their use during the implementation of the project.

(c) Eligibility. No restriction based on nationality of bidder and/or origin of goods shall apply. Foreign bidders shall be allowed to participate in NCB without restriction and shall not be subject to any unjustified requirement, which will affect their ability to participate in the bidding process. The recipient’s government‐owned enterprises or institutions shall be eligible to participate in the bidding process only if they can establish that they are legally and financially autonomous, operate under commercial law, and are not dependent agencies of the recipient.

(d) Bid preparation. For cases of emergency declared by the recipient, one must transmit, to the World Bank, the evidence of such emergency. This must be recognized by the World Bank and the World Bank must grant its approval for less time for the bids submission.

(e) Preferences. No preference shall be given to domestic and/or the WAEMU countries bidders, to domestically/WAEMU area manufactured goods, and to bidders forming a joint venture with a national firm or proposing national sub‐contractors or carrying out economic activities in the territory of the recipient.

(f) Fraud and corruption. In accordance with the Procurement Guidelines, each bidding document and contract shall include provisions stating the World Bank’s policy to sanction firms or individuals found to have engaged in fraud and corruption as set forth in paragraph 1.16 (a) of the Procurement Guidelines.

(g) Right to inspect and audit. In accordance with paragraph 1.16 (e) of the Procurement Guidelines, each bidding document and contract financed from the proceeds of the financing shall provide that (a) the bidders, suppliers, contractor and their subcontractors, agents’ personnel, consultants, service providers or suppliers shall permit the Bank, at its request, to inspect their accounts, records, and other documents relating to the submission of bids and contract performance and to have them audited by auditors appointed by the Bank and (b) the deliberate and material violation by the bidder, supplier, contractor, or subcontractor of such provision may amount to obstructive practice as defined in paragraph 1.16 (a) (v) of the Procurement Guidelines.

(h) Suspension and debarment. The cases of suspension/debarment under the recipient system shall result from fraud and corruption as set forth in paragraph 1.16 (a) of the Procurement Guidelines and approved by the Bank provided that the particular suspension/debarment procedure afforded due process and

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that the suspension/debarment decision is final.

43. Use of World Bank guidelines. Procurement for the proposed project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s ‘Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works, and Non‐Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers’, dated January 2011, revised in July 2014; ’Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers’, dated January 2011, revised in July 2014; and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. In addition to complying with IDA’s guidelines, procurement procedures also will comply with the Procurement Decree. However, in the event of a conflict between IDA’s guidelines and the Procurement Law, the World Bank regulations will prevail.

44. The various items under different expenditure categories are described in general in the following paragraphs. For each contract to be financed by the credit, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame will be agreed between the Government and the World Bank in the Procurement Plan (PP), which must be agreed for Board presentation. The PP will be updated at least annually, or as required, to reflect the project’s actual implementation needs and institutional capacity. The implementation entities, as well as contractors, suppliers and consultants will observe the highest standard of ethics during procurement and execution of contracts financed under this project. ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA and Grants’, dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 (the Anti‐Corruption Guidelines) shall apply to the project.

45. Advertising. After the project is approved by the World Bank Board and/or before effectiveness, a GPN will be prepared and published in UNDB online, on the World Bank’s external website, and in at least one widely circulated national newspaper or on a widely‐used website or electronic portal of the recipient with free national and international access. The GPN will show all International Competitive Bidding (ICB) for goods, works, and non‐consulting services contracts and all consulting services involving international firms. Specific procurement notices for all goods and works to be procured under ICB and Expressions of Interest for all consulting services that cost the equivalent of US$300,000 and above will also be published in the same manner as the GPN.

46. Procurement of goods, works, and non‐consulting services. Procurement will be done under ICB, Limited International Bidding, or NCB using the World Bank’s standard bidding documents for all ICB and National Standard Bidding agreed with or satisfactory to the World Bank. Shopping in accordance with paragraph 3.5 of the Procurement Guidelines will be used to procure readily available off‐the‐shelf goods of values not exceeding US$100,000 and for simple civil works not exceeding US$200,000. Direct contracting may be used when necessary if agreed in the PP, in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 3.7–3.8 of the World Bank’s Procurement Guidelines.

47. Selection and employment of consultants. The selection method will be Quality‐ and Cost‐Based Selection (QCBS) whenever possible. The following six additional methods may be used when appropriate: Quality‐Based Selection (QBS), Selection under a Fixed Budget (FBS), Least‐Cost Selection (LCS), Selection Based on the Consultants’ Qualifications (CQS), Single‐Source Selection (SSS) (firm and individual), and Selection of Individual Consultants (ICs).

48. Short lists of consultants for services estimated to cost less than the equivalent of US$400,000 per

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contract for engineering and contract supervision and US$200,000 per contract for other consultancy assignments may be composed entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 of the World Bank’s Consultant Guidelines. However, if foreign firms express interest, they will not be excluded from consideration.

49. SSS may be employed with prior approval of the World Bank and will be in accordance with paragraphs 3.8–3.11 of the Consultant Guidelines. All services of ICs will be procured under contracts in accordance with the provisions of paragraphs 5.1–5.6 of the Guidelines.

50. Procurement implementation arrangements. The ABFN will be in charge of implementing the project in compliance with overall procurement requirements for World Bank‐financed projects. The procurement dedicated staff will comprise a procurement specialist and a procurement assistant. This staff will monitor the day‐to‐day operation of the project implementation, especially with regard to procurement responsibilities.

51. The procurement teams’ main tasks will be (a) preparing and/or submitting procurement documents that require World Bank review and/or clearance; (b) contributing to the preparation of AWPBs, semiannual and annual progress reports, and midterm and completion review reports; and (c) updating and implementing the Procurement Plan and submitting it to the World Bank’s approval. The coordination and oversight of the procurement activities of the project in both entities will be done by the procurement specialist supported by the recruited procurement assistant. In order to streamline the procurement process and avoid delays for contracts not submitted to World Bank's prior review, the ABFN will be authorized to submit the procurement documents directly to the Control Body (DGMP). The DFM of the Ministry of Environment will be only copied in order to take knowledge of the procurement activities of the project. The PIM will define the interrelations between the procurement stakeholders.

Procurement Arrangements for Training and Workshops

52. For all training activities, the ABFN shall prepare and submit for World Bank approval, annual consolidated training plans and budgets, which will include the objectives of the trainings, target participants, format of delivery, and the qualifications of the resource person(s), as well as the expected impact of the trainings before the trainings can be undertaken. When the training is to be outsourced, the procurement of the trainer or the training institution shall be integrated into the project Procurement Plan and agreed with the World Bank. Similarly, the procurement of venues for workshops and training materials will be done by comparing at least three price quotations.

Assessment of the Capacity to Implement Procurement

53. A procurement capacity assessment is carried out to determine the institutional and management arrangements that would ensure proper execution of the project. It is mainly focused on the capacity and internal arrangements of the Recipient and the executing agency to carry out by itself procurement planning and implementation or otherwise proposed alternative arrangements to ensure transparent and efficient implementation.

54. Assessment of the ABFN: A procurement assessment was carried out in the ABFN and it was updated in November 2017 and in February 2018. Procurement issues and risks for the implementation of the project which have been identified include: (i) the lack of a manual of procedures acceptable to the World Bank; (ii) the lack of

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a proficient and well skilled procurement specialist familiar with World Bank procurement procedures; (iii) the inadequate communication with the technical structures designated to support ABFN (this may lead to delays in the drafting of TORs, technical specification and poor cost estimation); (iv) the timeouts in the implementation of some activities, mainly in bids/proposals evaluation committee management; (v) the lack of proficiency of the internal follow up mechanism on procurement; (vi) interaction between the ABFN and the procurement body (DGMP) may cause delays and possible political interference; and (vii) the lack of a dedicated room for archiving and the lack of appropriate material for filling.

55. The assessment revealed that ABFN does not have a procurement unit or a procurement specialist in its organigram (organizational structure). However, the function is carried out by the Head of Development and Equipment Department. This staff member has been closely associated with the procurement activities carried out under the two PPAs managed by a Transport sector PIU. Thanks to the implementation of the PPAs, the staff member also benefited from two training courses abroad on World Bank procurement procedures and has been exposed to World Bank operations but not to complex procurement procedures, particularly for works. The assessment also found that other staff dealing with procurement (for evaluation and approval processes) are not well‐skilled in World Bank procurement procedures.

56. The procurement risk for the ABFN is considered Substantial. To mitigate the risks identified in the procurement assessment, an action plan has been prepared in consultation with the client. With the implementation of the proposed measures of the action plan and the support of the World Bank team, the overall procurement risk is expected to be rated Moderate. The action plan is set to address the risks identified during the assessment and includes the main actions in Table 2.4.

TABLE 2.5 ACTION PLAN FOR STRENGTHENING THE PROCUREMENT CAPACITY OF THE ABFN

No. Key risks Mitigation Actions By Whom By When

1 Non‐existence of a procurement function within the ABFN organization chart

Create a procurement function in the structural organization of the ABFN directly attached to the Director of ABFN


2

Lack of a manual of procedures acceptable to the Bank

Update the PIM with a section dedicated to procurement in line with Bank procedures and approved by the Bank


3

Lack of a proficient and well skilled procurement specialist on Bank procurement procedures

Recruit on competitive basis a procurement specialist and a procurement assistant competent in Bank procurement procedures

Attending training sessions for all staff in connection with the procurement issues

ABFN

ABFN

Throughout project execution


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4

Inadequate communication with the technical structures designated to support ABFN, potentially lead to delays in the drafting of TORs, technical specifications and poor cost estimations

Strengthening the flow of communications to improve interaction, between the designated technical structures of support and ABFN, in their respective responsibilities; turnover of staff should be minimized and any turnover which, if necessary, should be properly managed to ensure continuity

Ministry of Environment (ME)/ABFN

By project implementation

5

Timeouts in the implementation of some activities, mainly in bids/proposals evaluation committee management and contract award stage.

Close monitoring of procurement plans on a monthly basis, follow‐up and exercise quality control on all aspects of the procurement process, including evaluation, selection and contract award.

ABFN/ ME


6

Lack of proficiency of the internal follow up mechanism on procurement

Systematic application of quality‐control of documents and all procurement processes;

All interactions related to the procurement responsibility must be consistent with the PIM and the institutional arrangements agreed with the Government.

ABFN Throughout project execution

7

Interaction between the ABFN Unit and the Control Body (DGMP) may cause delays and possible political interference

All interactions related to the procurement responsibility must be consistent with the institutional arrangements agreed with the Government and stated in the PIM. In particular, all procurement documents prepared by the ABFN Unit will be: (a) transmitted directly for review to the National Control Body in charge of such review for contracts subject to Bank post review; and (b) directly submitted to the Bank for all contracts subject to Bank prior review

ME/ABFN

By project implementation

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The Control Body (DGMP) and the Regulation Authority (ARMDS) will have to play their role to ensure good governance and limit the opportunities for undue influence by any central unit of the Government

DGMP‐DS/ARMDS

Throughout project implementation

8

Lack of a dedicated room for archiving and the lack of appropriate material for filling

Providing adequate space (room) and appropriate equipment to the procurement archive and set up an adequate filling system for project records to ensure easy retrieval of information/data.

ABFN No later than within three months of project implementation

57. Operational costs. Operational costs are the incremental expenses incurred by the project based on the AWPBs as approved by the World Bank, for project implementation, management, and M&E, including reasonable costs for office maintenance, materials, and supplies (but not the purchase of equipment), bank charges, communications, advertising expenses, vehicles operation, maintenance, and insurance (but not the purchase of fuel), equipment maintenance, public awareness‐related media expenses, travel and supervision, salaries of selected support staff, but excluding fees of consultants and salaries of officials of the Recipient’s civil service, and bonuses of members of the Recipient’s civil service in line of the national provisions. These items will be procured using the procedures detailed in the PIM, which will be reviewed and found acceptable to the World Bank.

58. Procurement Manual: Procurement arrangements, roles and responsibilities, methods and requirements for carrying out procurement shall be elaborated in detail in the Procurement Manual which may be a section of the PIM. The Procurement Manual will also set out detailed procedures for maintaining and providing readily available access to project procurement records, in compliance with the Financing Agreement. The Implementing Agency will assign one person responsible for maintaining the records. The logbook of the contracts with unique numbering system shall be maintained.

59. The signed contracts as in the logbook shall be reflected in the commitment control system of the Recipient’s accounting system or books of accounts as commitments whose payments should be updated with reference made to the payment voucher. This will put in place a complete record system whereby the contracts and related payments can be corroborated.

60. The procurement arrangements applicable under the “Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response” shall be described in the Emergency Operation Manual which shall be prepared by the Recipient and agreed with the Bank in due time to ensure that it is in place before occurrence of any potential emergency situation that would require using this subcomponent.

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Procurement Prior Review Thresholds

TABLE 2.6 THRESHOLDS FOR PROCUREMENT METHODS AND PRIOR REVIEW FOR SUBSTANTIAL RISK

Note: a. These thresholds are for the purposes of the initial PP for the first 18 months. The thresholds will be revised periodically based on reassessment of risks. All contracts not subject to prior review will be post reviewed. All terms of reference for consulting services will be subject to the Bank’s prior review

61. Procurement performance will be assessed on an annual basis (in the form of procurement audits by an external agency). This would aim to:

(a) verify that the procurement and contracting procedures and processes followed for the project were in accordance with the Financing Agreement;

(b) verify technical compliance, physical completion and price competitiveness of each contract in the selected representative sample;

(c) review and comment on contract administration and management issues as dealt with by the implementation entity;

(d) review capacity of the implementation entity in handling procurement efficiently; and

Expenditure Category

Contract Value (Threshold)

(US$)

Procurement Method

Contract Subject to Prior Review a (US$)

1. Works 15,000,000 or more ICB All ICB contracts and contacts equal or above 10,000,000

Below 15,000,000 NCB All contacts equal or below 15,000,000 and above 10,000,000

Below or equal to 200,000

Shopping None

No threshold Direct Contracting All contracts equal or above 10,000,000

2. Goods and non‐consulting services

3,000,000 or more ICB All ICB contracts and contracts equal or above 2,000,000

Below 3,000,000 NCB All contacts equal or below 3,000,000 and above 2,000,000

Below or equal to 100,000

Shopping None

No threshold Direct Contracting All contracts equal or above 2,000,000

2. Consultancy

Firms QCBS, QBS, FBS, LCS, QCS

All contracts equal or above 1,000,000

Individual IC (at least 3 CVs) All contracts equal or above 300,000

No threshold Single Source All contracts equal or above 2,000,000 for firms or 300,000 for individuals

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(e) identify improvements in the procurement process in the light of any identified deficiencies.

62. The threshold levels for various methods of procurement may be revised based on the assessment results.

63. Contract Management and Expenditure Reports. As part of the Procurement Management Reports (PMR), the ABFN will submit contract management and expenditure information in quarterly reports to the World Bank for the project. The procurement management report will consist of information on procurement of goods, non‐consulting services, works and consultants’ services and compliance with settled procurement methods. The report will compare procurement performance against the plan agreed during negotiations and updated at the end of each quarter. The report will also provide any information on complaints by bidders, unsatisfactory performance by contractors and any information on contractual disputes if any. These contract management reports will also provide details on payments under each contract, and will be used to ensure that no contract over‐payments are made or no payments are made to sanctioned entities.

64. Procurement Plan. The counterpart developed a procurement indicating procurements to be carried out over the first 18 months of the project. The procurement plan has been discussed and agreed between the Government and the World Bank. It consists of the procurement methods or consultant selection methods and the need for pre‐qualification, estimated costs, and prior review requirements. The procurement plan will remain dynamic and will be updated at least annually or more frequently as required, in agreement with the World Bank to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. Once the proposed project has been approved by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors, the procurement plan will be published on the World Bank’s public website and the project’s website.

65. Frequency of procurement reviews and supervision. The World Bank will conduct six‐monthly supervision missions and an annual Post Procurement Review (PPR). The PPR can be done either by the World Bank staff or consultants hired by the World Bank. They may also be carried out by third parties, such as the Supreme Audit Institution, procurement regulatory authorities, consultancy firms, NGOs, and others, according to procedures acceptable to the World Bank to ascertain compliance with procurement procedures as defined in the legal documents. The PPR should cover at least 10 percent of contracts that have not been prior reviewed in a financial year. The sampling is risk based and takes into consideration (a) the project procurement risk rating, with the riskier projects having a larger sample, and (b) the contract risk rating, to ensure that riskier contracts constitute a higher proportion of the sample. Post reviews contribute to the overall procurement performance rating of the project based on the rating of the PPR and provide a basis for updating the project procurement risk and the risk mitigation plan. The World Bank reserves the right to conduct an Independent Procurement Review at any time, up to two years, following the closing date of the project.

Environmental and Social (including safeguards)

66. Categorization. The project will be implemented in the general context of a sensitive and unique ecosystem exposed to the vagaries of climate change and it is important to identify the impacts on people and the environment of some of the infrastructure works that will be financed by the project. Some of these works (for example, dredging, rehabilitation of river piers, and riverbank strengthening) might have large and irreversible impacts, hence, the environmental category ‘A’—full assessment—for this project.

67. Environmental safeguard policies relevant to the project. The project triggers the following environmental

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safeguards policies: OP 4.01 ‐ Environmental Assessment, OP 4.04 ‐ Natural Habitats, OP 4.09 ‐ Pest Management, OP 4.37 ‐ Safety of Dams, and OP 4.11 ‐ Physical Cultural Resources. The instruments that were, or are being prepared are as follows (see also para 113, page 33):

An ESMF that identify the main environmental and social safeguards risks, as well as the main mitigating, monitoring, and capacity‐building measures to be embedded in the project design;

An ESIA for the dredging under Subcomponent 2.1, in an interim form since about half of the sites envisaged have been assessed as the consultant’s team was not able to visit all sites due to the security situation in the project area;

An ESIA for each of the new docking piers, although these will not be financed under the current scope of project;

An ESMP for each of the docking piers to be rehabilitated under the project is advanced and will be disclosed before any works are authorized to begin;

An ESMP for the channel opening pilot under Subcomponent 2.4 is advanced and will be disclosed before any works are authorized to begin.

68. Early during project implementation and before any work is initiated, the RAPs will be finalized for the docking piers activities.

Environmental Safeguards Policies Triggered by the Project

OP 4.01 ‐ Environmental Assessment

OP 4.04 ‐ Natural Habitats

OP 4.11 ‐ Physical Cultural Resources

OP 4.09 ‐ Pest Management

OP 4.37 ‐ Safety of Dams

69. The following legal safeguards policy is also triggered.

OP 7.50 ‐ Projects on International Waterways

70. The costs of environmental measures are estimated at CFAF 2.15 billion (about US$3.7 million and have been included in the cost structure of the project. These costs will cover the following:

Monitoring, surveillance, and subprojects supervision costs

Environmental studies costs

Costs of mitigation and compensation measures implementation

Costs of capacity‐building and awareness measures

71. Public consultations and workshops were held as part of the environmental and social safeguard studies of the PREEFN. The objective of consultations was to document potential impacts and their relevant management measures as well as the involvement of affected populations in the implementation. These consultations

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provided the opportunity for stakeholders to share their concerns and expectations with regard to the project activities. The following populations and representatives were met between July 8 and 12, 2016:

Technical services and administration of Macina (July 8)

Communes of Kokry, Kolongo, and Macina (July 9)

Rural Commune of Kéwa at Kouakourou (July 12)

Representatives of technical services of Djenné circle (July 11)

Commune of Youwarou (July 11)

Regional Council of Mopti (July 12)

Stakeholders of Ténenkou (July 12)

72. Implementation institutional framework. The subprojects’ preparation work will be under the responsibility of the ABFN. The environmental and social screening of subprojects and the validation of subprojects’ selection and classification process will be executed by the ABFN in coordination with the DNACPN and Regional Directorate for Sanitation, Control of Pollution, and Harmful Substances, DRACPN). The pending ESIAs will be prepared by consultants specialized in ESIAs, who will report to the environmental and social focal points of the PREEFN located at the ABFN. The review and approval of the ESIA, ESMP, and RAP reports will be carried out by the DNACPN/DRACPN and the release of the report will be done by the ABFN. The integration of environmental and social clauses as part of the works tender documents will be directed by the ABFN. Various stakeholders will be involved in the implementation of the environmental and social monitoring program: elected officials, STM (responsible for environmental and social issues), environmental and social focal point (STDE), enterprises, control office of the DNACPN, Department of Transportation, the PREEFN/ABFN, IDA (World Bank), and consultants (national and international). Supervision of monitoring activities will be conducted by the environmental and social focal point of the PREEFN. The internal monitoring of environmental mitigation measures will be carried out by the environmental and social managers of enterprises, consultancies, control offices, and municipalities involved in the project.

73. Social safeguard policies relevant to the project. The project triggers the policy OP 4.12 related to Involuntary Resettlement. An RPF was prepared and disclosed before project appraisal. Early during implementation and before the works are authorized to start, Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs) will be prepared for the activities that will require it, such as the river docking piers’ construction/rehabilitation because of possible physical or economic displacement of people that could be temporary or definitive. The completion of the RAPs during the early implementation phase is because the detailed feasibility studies are being finalized and it would not be pertinent nor effective to prepare RAPs earlier. Indemnities necessary in the event of involuntary resettlement of populations are the responsibility of the Government of Mali.

74. Complaints and conflict resolution process. Persons negatively affected by the project must have access to a clear and transparent complaints and conflict resolution process. The process will include the following steps: registration of the complaints, local mechanisms to reach an amicable resolution, referral to local authorities; and access to the justice system as a last resort.

75. Compensation mechanisms. The compensation mechanisms will be in cash or kind. A monitoring plan will be developed to determine if the resettlement and compensation goals are met and to ensure that all project‐affected people are compensated, resettled, and reinstalled within the shortest period possible and without

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negative impacts.

76. Budget. At this stage of project development, it is not possible to estimate the overall cost for resettlement and compensation. The government budget for this purpose will be estimated on the basis of the result of socioeconomic studies.

Cost of land acquisition and of clearing the project footprint

Compensation cost for the loss of economic and subsistence activities

RAP monitoring costs, including

Public awareness and consultations costs;

Training costs for the PREEFN agents and members of the assessment commission; and

Contingencies.

Other Applicable Safeguards Policies

77. The International Waters policy (OP 7.50 ‐ Projects on International Waterways) is triggered. An assessment was carried out to ascertain the risks for harm to riparians’ use of water and it was concluded that perturbations resulting in increased turbidity would be localized and that no appreciable harm would be caused. The notification requirement was handled through the NBA, which has the mandate to play that role in conformity with the Water Charter (Articles 19 and 20) of the Niger River linking all nine riparian countries. The notification has been sent, and the notification period of 30 days lasted from April 20, 2017 until May 20, 2017. No objections were received.

Monitoring and Evaluation

78. M&E for the project will gather information from national, commune, and local levels. At the national level, the ABFN will be responsible for consolidation of data; monitoring of indicators; and reporting on Components 1, 2, and 3. The ABFN will also work in close coordination with regional, cercle, and local government agencies and coordination mechanisms. Dedicated staff within the ABFN will ensure the quality and timeliness of data and reporting.

79. At the level of commune and cercle, the ABFN will work with local stakeholders to develop capacity for monitoring and reporting of activities related to works and usage of channels, ports, and jetties, as well as socioeconomic activities. Communities will be included in monitoring the use of project resources at the local level, including the timeliness and quality of infrastructure rehabilitation, and the usage of project inputs by associations and individual beneficiaries in enhancing productive activities. Project information will be available through website postings, reports, and studies.

Role of Partners

80. Collaboration with development partners is an imperative element of developing any project within the NID, which has implications across a wide array of actors and socioeconomic sectors. This project has been developed with an understanding that the resources are limited and cannot address all the needs within the project area, let alone in the NID. With this in mind, the World Bank has sought to build relationships with key partners working in the country in the NID in particular. Of particular note are partners working in the sectors of environment and rural development, infrastructure, and transportation with a view toward identifying priority

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investments that could be catalytic toward mobilizing further resources.

81. In terms of environmental monitoring of the Niger River and the NID, Wetlands International has been one the most active partners in tracking the evolution of the ecological function and health of the river. Their research and thoughtful analysis has helped guide the need for balancing development objectives and the link to maintaining ecological function of the ecosystem. In addition, the NBA has continued to play an ongoing role in tracking the functions along the entirety of the river as well as the many different socioeconomic uses.

82. The German, Dutch, Swiss, Luxembourg, Danish, Swedish, American, and Belgian development and technical agencies have supported aquaculture and fisheries management and other rural development activities that have yielded positive results and important lessons for this project. The German Cooperation, in particular, has been active in supporting improved agriculture and aquaculture activities in the NID and will continue to be valuable partners in the implementation of the socioeconomic activities.

83. With regard to transportation and infrastructure development, the African Development Bank has been a long‐standing partner of the World Bank in Mali and the two will continue to seek complementarity in funding, such as through the development of multimodal transportation nodes that include riverine, road, and train transport. The Chinese Embassy has also been an ongoing partner in seeking to identify complementary investments in infrastructure to enhance the Niger River.

84. The occurrence of this project will be used to initiate a dialogue among partners, supporting activities on the Niger River, to better understand the overlapping dynamics between development and environmental function along the river and how to promote coordinated and harmonized approaches. The donor group will be a platform to discuss progress on the project and to understand if there are any further activities/investments that can be learned from this project or that may inform future collaborations.

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ANNEX 3: IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT PLAN

COUNTRY : Mali

Mali ‐ Economic & Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River

Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support 1. Supervision arrangements. The project will require substantive technical support due to the rather complex and technical nature of the activities to be financed. It is projected that a total of 15 supervision missions will be required over the project period.

2. Technical inputs needed. Technical inputs will be provided by a natural resource management specialist, as well as specialized staff from the Water and Transport Global Practices. As needed, the task team will seek additional, highly specialized technical inputs from technical partners with whom close coordination and collaboration has been established during project preparation.

3. Fiduciary requirements and inputs. Training will be provided by the World Bank’s FM specialist and procurement specialist upon commencement and throughout project implementation as needed. Both the FM and procurement specialists are based in the country office and have already supported the ABFN during project preparation. While formal supervision will be carried out semiannually, fiduciary support will be provided on an ‘as needed’ basis to support the client on time and in an efficient manner.

4. Safeguards. Due to the nature of the investments, the project will need close safeguards supervision. As such, the project will require supervision support from a senior safeguards specialist with experience in the implementation of similar projects.

5. Security arrangement for project implementation, supervision, and monitoring. The challenging security situation in the project area has caused a significant modification of the scope of the project. The activities retained will be implemented in a careful manner, starting from the areas of lesser security concern. The World Bank will constantly liaise, as part of the overall security approach, to protect the integrity of its portfolio with the Malian authorities. Project resources have been provisioned to face the cost of ad hoc measures as well as the implementation of more systemic measures as they will be determined and adopted at the level of the whole portfolio. The World Bank will allocate appropriate bank budget to ensure that the project is well supervised.

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Implementation Support Plan and Resource Requirements

Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Estimate (Staff Weeks)

Partner Role

First twelve months

Guidance on institutional arrangements and project supervision

Task team leader/natural resource management specialist

12 n.a.

Procurement training and supervision

Procurement specialist

4 n.a.

FM training and supervision

FM specialist 4 n.a.

Guidance on transport Transport specialist 4 Technical input

Guidance on river water dynamics

Water specialist 4 Technical input

Guidance on fiscal flows and local development

Economist 4 Technical input

Guidance on environmental safeguards

Environmental safeguards specialist

4 —

Guidance on social safeguards

Social safeguards specialist

4 —

Security Security officer — —

12–48 months Project implementation supervision

Task team leader 12

n.a.

Procurement supervision Procurement specialist

8 n.a.

FM supervision FM specialist 4 n.a.

Supervision on transport Transport specialist 8 Technical input

Supervision on river water dynamics

Water specialist 8 Technical input

Supervision on fiscal flows and local development

Economist 6 Technical input

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Annex 4: Economic and Financial Analysis Mali: Niger River Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation Project

This economic analysis is conducted based on the original project scope. For security consideration, the present project has been reduced in scope and reach. The understanding between the Malian government and the World Bank is that financing for the remaining part of the project will be made available as and if the security situation improves in the greater project area. Furthermore, the level of return of the original project scope is highly indicative of the level of return of the revised scope since the main intervention (i.e. improved navigation) is maintained. The entire benefits of this project may be beyond the economic aspects as a way to bring much needed initial resources to jumpstart the conditions for recovery and peace restoration. Finally, this approach will facilitate implementation as soon as the project can be expanded to its original scope.

Background

1. Financial analysis (that is, commercial profitability analysis) and economic analysis (that is, national profitability analysis) differ in several ways. The objective of commercial profitability analysis is to assess the net financial results of a project from the investor point of view, while the national profitability analysis aims to identify and measure the net economic benefits of the project from the society point of view.

2. Both analyses rely on the cost/benefit analysis where at least three indicators are usually considered:

The NPV, which is the difference between the discounted total benefits and cost;

The internal rate of return, which is the discount rate that zeroes out the NPV, or the interest rate that makes the NPV of all cash flows equal to zero;

The benefit‐cost ratio, which is the ratio of the PV of benefits over the PV of costs over the lifetime of the project.

3. A sensitivity analysis and a scenario analysis are also considered in the context of this project.

Financial Analysis of the Proposed Flood Prevention Component

4. A financial analysis was carried out in this context on the NID to gauge the profitability of the agriculture, fishery, livestock, and tree planting activities in the 19 targeted NID communes, which will have a positive effect on their community livelihoods. However, the financial analysis carried out for Subcomponent 2.3 was dropped as the security situation led to the downscaling of the subcomponent which only includes capacity building.

Economic Analysis of the Proposed Flood Prevention Component

5. The major difference between the financial and economic analysis is that the economic analysis consists in eliminating all the distortions of prices on the inputs used for building the river assets and dredging. There is, therefore, a need to identify and quantify price distortions that affect the operating expenditures as well as the investments. The evaluation of these distortions makes it possible to rectify the financial prices and obtain the economic prices. From the corrected structure of the economic prices, the revaluation coefficients were estimated.

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6. Determination of price distortions. The conversion of the financial costs into economic costs is essential to reflect the value of the output for the community. The objective of this calculation is to determine the opportunity costs of both the inputs and outputs. As taxes, duties, and subsidies, such as for electricity, constitute internal flows in the national economy, those were not taken into account in the calculation of the economic costs.

7. The wages applied for unqualified skills is the minimum wage without the social contribution. For the skilled job salaries, the conversion factor is 3.95 percent taxes on gross salaries and the social contributions (6.7 percent on gross salary) are deducted from project management salaries. Moreover, most labor needed for the whole project and other activities are assumed to be locally hired.

8. Equipment, goods, and infrastructure. A conversion factor of 0.88 (import and other taxes) has been applied to calculate the economic costs of imported equipment and goods. Local value added tax of 18 percent is applied on local inputs that are manufactured or sold locally and will be used in the construction of the assets.

9. The dredging, the construction of docks, and other investments to improve river transport services and security in the NID are considered public goods and considered in the economic analysis together with the livelihood improvements calculated under the financial analysis.

Methodological Process

10. The cost/benefit analyses were carried out using a 5 percent financial rate over 20 years for the financial analysis and a social discount rate of 6 percent based on the opportunity cost of capital used in the project. Also, sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. For the former, an increase in cost and decrease in benefits allowed to derive the switch‐off point. For the latter, three scenarios were considered for the economic analysis: pessimistic scenario, base case scenario, and optimistic scenario.

11. The PREEFN economic analysis was performed for the project as well as for Component 2 over 20 years, to derive the social benefits accruing to society. The Component 1 objective is to improve ecosystem services through better monitoring. Component 2 aims to increase the IWT navigability period and improve its safety and increase the agricultural, fishing, bourgoutière used as fodder for livestock, and tree planting while deriving the best trade‐offs among these complementary but sometimes competing uses, especially in conjunction with two important future parameters: the construction of the proposed upstream Fomi dam and climate change effects. Component 3 covers project management costs. Table 4.1 illustrates the economic (US$44.1 million) and financial (US$50.0 million) costs of the PREEFN components inclusive of contingencies.

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TABLE 4.1. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PROJECT COST (US$, MILLION)

Component Project Economic Cost Project Financial Cost

Investment Technical Assistance

Project Managem

ent

Total Cost Investment Technical Assistance

Project Management

Total Cost

US$, million US$,

million

US$,

million

US$, million

US$, million US$,

million

US$,

million

US$,

million

Component 1 9.7 9.7 11.0 11.0

Component 2 23.2 23.2 27.0 27.0

Component 3 11.1 11.1 12.0 12.0

Component 4

Total 23.2 9.7 11.1 44.1 27.0 11.0 12.0 50.0

Note: Contingencies are included in the economic and financial values. The totals may not add up due to rounding.

12. A number of socioeconomic and environmental benefits could accrue with the implementation of the project but could not be valued due to the lack of readily available data. A ‘without project’ scenario could notably have the following negative direct and indirect effects:

Health. Averted with regard to premature death, drowning, injuries, water‐related diseases, and vector‐borne diseases

Environmental. Ecosystem services disruption, water resource pollution, land degradation, and river siltation

Global externalities. Carbon emission (for example, due to road transportation to the detriment of more efficient maritime transportation, and so on)

Damages. Infrastructure (transport, water, and so on), public infrastructure, land, household, business, private property, and so on

Economic opportunity. Loss of economic opportunities and increase in poverty incidence and therefore vulnerability (loss of wages, loss of time, yield, sales, commerce, and so on) due to reduced mobility

Social. Disruption of health services, schools, and so on

13. However, the economic analysis only covers the improvement of mobility (days/year) for the formal (COMANAV) and informal (pinassiers) sectors. The project will also provide social benefits for improved livelihood, better nutrition intake, less social tension (farmers versus bourgoutiers), and so on owing to better agricultural yields, increased fish catch, expansion of livestock fodder areas, and tree planting.

14. The retained methods to derive the social benefits for the economic analysis are (a) a productivity method for mobility improvement; (b) a productivity method for the increase in agriculture yield, fish catch increase, and livestock fodder; and (c) the environmental benefits associated with the improvement of ecosystem services through tree planting.

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Economic Activity Assessment related to the PREEFN’s Component 2

Transport

15. Asset capacity. COMANAV and private operators (pinasses and canoes) asset capacity in the NID is illustrated in Table 4.2. COMANAV has recently received two out of four small boats (65‐passenger capacity) that were ordered in 2015, which will be added to its fleet composed of three very old passenger/freight vessels, one oil tanker, and one tug boat. The tug boat could pull five to six barges with a total of 100–120 tons of solid or liquid bulk freight at the same time. About 500 pinasses are operated in the greater NID and different pinasse sizes exist and can accommodate 10 to 80 passengers and/or 10 to 100 tons, as pinassiers could also mix passengers and freight. On average, the pinasse passenger capacity and tonnage is assumed to be equally divided for the analysis with a total capacity of 22,500 passengers and 27,500 tons for freight. The canoes, which are more designed for individual/family (less than 10 passengers and 2 to 3 m3 in freight volume) mode of transport, are not considered in the analysis as they seem to be operational almost the entire year. Canoes are also used for fishing, harvesting rice, and small commerce activities. Nevertheless, a number of pinasses and motorized canoes are also used for higher value‐added activities, for example, more than 60 riverbank sand and pebble mining and storage sites, which are notably driven by a booming demand for construction materials in Bamako and other economic centers along the NID. These informal activities are affecting the NID’s natural flooding contours and the river flow with ultimate growing negative effects on agriculture, fishing, transport, and ecosystem services.

16. Circuit and seasonal operations. COMANAV season starts in September during the humid season and lasts three to four months for the Koulikoro‐Mopti segment and three to five months for the Mopti‐Gao segment through Timbuktu. COMANAV’s 3‐passenger‐freight vessel’s water thrust is 1.1 m, whereas the pinasse water thrust is just 0.7 m, while the canoe’s is even less. This gives private operators a competitive edge that allows them to start the transport season at least a couple of weeks earlier and end it a couple of weeks later than COMANAV. As a result, COMANAV had to buy four small passenger boats to regain part of the lost market share that fell from 11,545 passengers in 2003–04 to just 6,767 passengers in 2013–14 due to a number of factors, including loss of competitiveness and effectiveness concerns in addition to the security unrest of early 2013 (see Table 4.4). Similarly, COMANAV’s freight volume dwindled from 9,708 tons in 2003–04 to 7,095 tons in 2013–14. Private operators have captured most of the transport business in terms of passengers (approximately 100,000 passengers in 2013–14) and freight (100,000 tons in 2013–04) due to their assets that are more adapted to deal with the fluctuation of the NID flow over a longer period per season; their prices that are more attractive; and their circuits that are more flexible and reliable as they crisscross the NID, including canals and lakes for opportunities while competing, at the same time, with COMANAV circuit in addition to parts of the Bani tributary.

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TABLE 4.2. COMANAV AND PRIVATE OPERATOR FLUVIAL ESTIMATED CAPACITY, 2015

Stock Unit Passenger Boat Passenger‐Freight

Vessel

Oil

Tanker

Tug

Boat

Barges

COMANAV

Assets Number 2 operational 3 1 1 18

Capacity Per asset 65 passengers 340 passengers

316 tons

330 m3 ≈1,000 tons

200 tons

Stock Unit Canoe Motorized Canoe Motorized Pinasses

Private Operators

Assets Number 28,500 e 400 e 500

Capacity Per asset

<10 passengers

<10 passengers

2–3 m3 10–80

passengers 10–100 tons

Source: COMANAV official exchange.

Note: e is an estimate.

17. Multimodal competition. Multimodal competition. Passenger and freight multimode transport (river and land) is complementary, although with some variability depending on the season (a lull in transport during the heavy rains of July and August). The bulk of the transport travels via river during the wet season as the NID northern loop road from Koulikoro to Timbuktu through Ségou and the NID southern loop road from Mopti to Gao are often disrupted; and via land during the dry season as the fluvial mode is disrupted from February till August (Figure 4.1). Transport by road constitutes a source of competition to a segment of the DIN river transport as an all‐season road is under construction that will link Ségou to Timbuktu. By then, two alternatives could be considered: any direct journey from Koulikoro to Timbuktu or any upstream transit through Bamako will likely favor the land transport, capturing passengers and freight as it is more cost‐efficient (less passengers per kilometer and tons per kilometer) as it is shorter (239–319 km) and quicker. While any cabotage to serve the ports and villages between Koulikoro and Timbuktu (396 km) will favor river as it more effective. Assuming the same level of quality service (regularity and effectiveness) of both modes, the fluvial mode could compete with the terrestrial mode on both effectiveness and, probably, efficiency grounds as the passenger per kilometer cost and the ton per kilometer cost are more efficient than the terrestrial mode. Moreover, with the extension of the navigation period, as envisaged by the PREEFN, the fluvial mode, which has a lower ambient pollution and carbon footprint per kilometer, could prove a determining factor in the future if these externalities are internalized in multimodal transport costs.

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FIGURE 4.1. MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION IN AND AROUND THE NID

Source: DNCT, INSTAT, United Nations, World Bank, 2014.

18. Efficiency. COMANAV average passenger per kilometer cost (CFAF 62.7) and average freight per kilometer cost (CFAF 56.9) are higher than the pinassiers’ where, for instance, the average passenger per kilometer cost is CFAF 11 and the average freight per kilometer cost is CFAF 10.8. Yet, COMANAV’s passenger cost should eventually come down with the introduction of the four new boats and especially lower international oil prices since mid‐2014. Tables 4.3 and 4.4 illustrate the effective traffic (based on current trend) and potential traffic (based on full asset capacity) under three scenarios considered for the PREEFN: the Niger flow is extended to seven months (pessimistic scenario), eight months (base case scenario), and nine months (optimistic scenario). Benefits are expected to at least represent 10 percent of the potential traffic (Table 4.5).

19. Occupancy rate. COMANAV’s occupancy rate between Koulikoro‐Mopti is about 70 percent whereas it significantly decreases to 7 percent between Mopti and Gao where the pinassier competition is fierce, especially when it comes to prices (see efficiency above). Although there are no statistics on the pinassier occupancy rate, it seems that their services are bridging the demand with regard to passengers and freight, especially along the Timbuktu‐Gao leg.

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TABLE 4.3. BENEFITS CONSIDERED FOR COMPONENT 2 BY COMANAV, 2013–14 SEASON

COMANAV Services Unit Segment 1

Koulikoro‐Mopti

Segment 2

Mopti‐Timbuktu

Segment 3

Timbuktu‐Gao

2014 Target 2014 Target 2014 Target

Terrestrial circuit length Km 705

239–319

410

Fluvial circuit length Km 504 396 408

Extension of services # of months 4.5 8 5.5 8 5.5

Competitive

ness

Regularity of services

Frequency/week 1 1 1 1 1

Occupancy per year

# of passengers/season

6,767

Passengers‐km 3,744

% rate over the season

Freight per year

Ton 7,095

Ton‐km 4,312

% rate over the season

70% 7% 7%

Punctuality of services

# of hours/journey 36 34 41

Stopover services # of hours/stopover 12 7

Effectiveness of services

# bogged down/season

Small Boat

Efficiency of services

Large Boat

CFAF per Passenger/km

CFAF per ton/km


Quality

Security of services # of accidents

Safety of services # of injuries

# of deaths

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Environmen

t

Ambient and global

emissions

SOx, NOx, PM2.5 kg

CO2 ton


Note: Figures in the first green highlighted cells are the total for the season.

TABLE 4.4. BENEFITS CONSIDERED FOR COMPONENT 2 BY PRIVATE OPERATORS, 2013–14 SEASON

COMANAV Services Unit Segment 1

Koulikoro‐Mopti

Segment 2

Mopti‐Timbuktu

Segment 3

Timbuktu‐Gao

2014 Target 2014 Target 2014 Target

Terrestrial circuit length Km 705

239–319

410

Fluvial circuit length Km 504 396 408

Extension of services # of months 5. 5 8 6.5 8 6.5

Competitive

ness and Economic Efficiency

Regularity of services

Frequency/week

Occupancy per year

# of passengers/year

100,000

CFAF/passenger average

% rate over the year

Freight per year

Ton 100,000

CFAF/ton average

30,000

% rate over the year

Punctuality of services

# of hours/journey

Stopover services

# of hours/stopover

Effectiveness of services

# bogged down/year

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Efficiency of services


11

CFAF per ton/km

108

Quality

of Life

Security of services

# of accidents ‐ average 3 years

26

Safety of services

# of injuries

# of deaths ‐ average 3 years

25

Environmen

t

Ambient and global

emissions

SOx, NOx, PM2.5

kg

CO2 ton


Note: Figures in the first green highlighted cells are the total for the season.

20. Quality of life. The pinasse/canoe risk of accidents is high where the highest pinasse/canoe capsizing events and fatality toll occurred in 2010 with 6 and 53 people drowned, respectively. Conversely, COMANAV’s safety track record is not available.

21. Environment. A better assessment of the engines used by COMANAV and the pinassiers in fuel consumption and ambient (NOx, SOx, and PM2.5) and carbon (CO2) emission released by kilometer will eventually be needed to be compared to trucks and busses using the terrestrial mode, so as to internalize these factors as negative benefits in the future.

TABLE 4.5. TRANSPORT VALUE ADDED UNDER THREE SCENARIOS

Provider Unit Baseline Pessimistic Scenario

Base Case Scenario

Optimistic Scenario

COMANAV 4.5 months 7 months 8 months 9 months

Effective demand pass Average # passenger 7,362 11,452 13,088 14,724

Potential demand pass Average # passenger 56,898 88,508 101,152 113,796

Effective average passenger/km

Passenger/km 3,744,000 5,824,000 6,656,000 7,488,000

Potential average passenger/km

Passenger/km 28,935,902 45,011,403 51,441,604 57,871,804

Effective revenue passenger CFAF million 235 365 417 469

Potential revenue passenger CFAF million 1,814 2,822 3,225 3,629

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Provider Unit Baseline Pessimistic Scenario

Base Case Scenario

Optimistic Scenario

Effective demand freight Average ton 7,834 12,186 13,927 15,668

Potential demand freight Average ton 119,610 186,060 212,640 239,220

Effective average volume/km

Ton/km 4,312,000 6,707,556 7,665,778 8,624,000

Potential average volume/km

Ton/km 65,835,885 102,411,376 117,041,573 131,671,769

Effective revenue freight CFAF million 245 382 436 491

Potential revenue freight CFAF million 3,745 5,826 6,658 7,491

Pinasses 5.5 months 7 months 8 months 9 months

Effective demand pass Average # passenger 100,000 127,273 145,455 163,636

Potential demand pass Average # passenger 3,960,000 5,040,000 5,760,000 6,480,000

Effective average passenger/km

Passenger/km 16,951,915 21,575,165 24,657,331 27,739,498

Potential average passenger/km

Passenger/km 671,295,844 854,376,528 976,430,318 1,098,484,108

Effective revenue passenger CFAF million 186 237 271 305

Potential revenue passenger CFAF million 7,384 9,398 10,741 12,083

Effective demand freight Average ton 100,000 127,273 145,455 163,636

Potential demand freight Average ton 14,520,000 18,480,000 21,120,000 23,760,000

Effective average volume/km

Ton/km 18,347,375 23,351,204 26,687,090 30,022,977

Potential average volume/km

Ton/km 2,664,038,80

5 3,390,594,843 3,874,965,535 4,359,336,227

Effective revenue freight CFAF million 198 252 288 324

Potential revenue freight CFAF million 28,772 36,618 41,850 47,081

Agriculture

22. There are four main kinds of crops in the NID: rice, sugarcane, bourgou, and vegetables.

23. Rice. there are four production methods to grow rice along the Niger River: traditional, controlled flooding; pump‐based small‐scale plots; and dam‐based irrigation in the so called ‘Delta mort’ (operated by the Office du Niger) upstream to the NID. Only the first three are considered for the NID:

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The traditional method is divided into three categories: lakes (mares) where the flood‐retreat system cultivation (culture de décrue) is carried out on lake shores, valley‐bottoms (bas‐fonds) where water accrues after the dry season and where seedlings are transplanted to the seabeds, and the delta flood‐rice where early ploughing and harrowing the dry soil precedes the floods and where rice is harvested from canoes as the long stems keep the seed‐head above the water level.

Controlled flooding/swamp (submersion contrôlée) are large schemes, essentially in Ségou and Mopti which are rain dependent, gravity‐fed, and managed through a number of gates.

Pump‐based, small‐scale irrigation plots (périmètres irrigués) have 30–50 ha, mainly between Timbuktu and Gao, and are managed by village associations which help women access land by cultivating vegetables (cultures maraîchères) as rice cultivation remains male dominated.

24. The variety of rice (mainly wild rice: Oryza longistaminata and Oryza glaberrima), its harvest, and yield at different locations in the NID is illustrated in Table 4.6. Rice production is largely dependent on the extent of the flood as it is farmed under natural conditions as these techniques rely on dikes and sluices to delay the flooding. A system of rice intensification is being piloted in Timbuktu since 2008 and still ongoing where rice yield significantly increased up to 9.1 ton per ha.

25. During the last decades, rice paddy fields have expanded considerably at the expense of bourgou as about 25 percent of the bourgou areas in the NID has been converted into rice fields since the 1950s. It is interesting to note that the yield and price of bourgou (value added of CFAF 5,357,794 per ha) is much higher that any variety of rice (value added of CFAF 68,144 to 1,945,948 per ha). Despite the higher price of bourgou, rice is considered as a staple food by the NID population and has a higher nutritive and security value, especially during dry seasons, than bourgou that is critical to the livestock production system in northern Mali.

26. A salinization of rice paddy is registered all over the rice cropland: Office du Niger’s upstream to the NID and downstream in the NID. This is reducing rice productivity and will necessitate additional fertilizer application, which will in turn increase the salinity of soils.

TABLE 4.6. NIGER INNER DELTA CROP TYPOLOGY

Crop Value Added

Yield Potential Cultivated

CFAF/ha Ton/ha Ha Ha

Op. Riz de Ségou (wintering submersion‐controlled floating rice) 68,144 1

500,000 117,371 Op. Riz de Ségou (wintering submersion‐controlled rice‐drawn) 131,372 1.5

Op. Riz de Mopti (wintering submersion‐controlled floating rice) 68,144 1

510,000 150,814 Op. Riz de Mopti (wintering submersion‐controlled rice‐drawn) 131,372 1.5

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Crop Value Added

Yield Potential Cultivated

CFAF/ha Ton/ha Ha Ha

NID (wintering submersion‐natural‐floating rice) 59,245 0.8 300,000

Timbuktu‐Gao (wintering‐pumping‐MT) 405,221 4.5 280,000 33,997

Timbuktu‐Gao (dry‐season‐pumping‐ MT) 432,433 4.5 110,000 33,212

Sugarcane 771,887 90

>20,000

Bourgou 357,186 15

240,000

Vegetables Wide‐range

See text

Source: Mali Ministry of Agriculture, Rice Strategy, 2009.

27. Under the PREEFN, controlling the water flow into the NID will increase the opportunities for cultivating rice, which will need at least 90 days of inundation by a water level of more than 0 to 2 m.

28. Sugarcane. There are some sugarcane plantation activities in Ségou that are operated by the Office du Niger in joint venture with Chinese companies that are planning to introduce efficient production techniques to grow sugar over a 20,000 ha area and produce ethanol as a biofuel. It is unclear how water allocation is affecting the Ségou area.

29. Bourgou, which is a semiaquatic perennial grass or floating grass that grows in temporary NID flood zones under hot and dry climate conditions is used for fodder. The Dideré grows together with bourgou but in shallower habitat (more than 5 m deep). Bourgoutières are present in long‐lasting flooded zones, with 2 m to 5 m depth, that remain flooded for five to seven months mainly in the north of the NID (Lake Debo, Toguere, Coumbe, Tenenkou, and Mopti) where these areas become a natural habitat for fish spawning (Figure 4.2). Bourgou could grow naturally and is managed under the traditional dioro management system which is being addressed by the Government’s decentralized system of natural resources management at the local level where bourgou is being regenerated and is considered a cash crop. Production may yield between 6 and 20 tons per hectare of dry matter. It is estimated that only two‐thirds of historical bourgou growing areas are still productive although the

bourgoutières play a critical role in the transhumant cycle.

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FIGURE 4.2. PREDICTED AREA SUITABLE FOR GROWTH OF BOURGOU AND FLOATING RICE, 1972–87

Source: EU CORDIS website: http://cordis.europa.eu/.

Note: Based on depth range (1–6 m) and flood duration (3–8 months): red = 1987; blue = 1974; orange = 1972–73.

30. Vegetables. There are small plots leased by the Government and mainly favoring women to cultivate vegetables for their own consumption with the surplus being sold in the market. Areas and productions are difficult to gauge although areas where vegetables are cultivated are substituting rice actual or potential areas (Table 4.6).

Fisheries

31. The fish catch varies between 50,000 and 100,000 tons per year in the NID depending on a humid or dry season. The fish is mainly caught during the NID flood recession, which increases the fish density in receding waters. Rich with 130 fish species, the NID, however, lost 15 species, while 10 are endangered due to over‐fishing. There are three types of fishermen: agro‐fishermen who dedicate their time for agricultural production and use some of their spare time to catch fish for their own consumption (about 3 percent of total capture); the sedentary professional fishermen who consider fishing a full‐time job, although some of their spare time is dedicated to catching fish for their own consumption (about 21 percent); and the migrant fishermen (Bozo) who do not possess any land and dedicate their time for fishing and have developed very sophisticated fishing techniques (about 76 percent).

Pastoral

32. The fodder productivity varies between 6 and 20 tons/ha of dried matter in the NID owing to the presence of natural or planted bourgou. During humid seasons, the total production of bourgou could reach as high as 77 million tons of dri‐ed matter. Still, the very large inter‐annual variation between humid and dry seasons increases the livestock vulnerability. Bourgou is now considered a cash crop whereas under the Dina code of 1818, livestock

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was accorded first priority in the use of the bourgoutières, which brings to the fore a growing conflict between rice growers and farmers growing bourgou as a cash crop on one hand and herders on the other.

Environment

33. The Niger River discharge is determined by rainfall in the tropical drainage basin and the river flow is characterized by large seasonality variations over two seasons: a rainy season with abundant rain and a dry season with no rain over several months. The wet season creates a large peak discharge that is gradually reduced to a flood wave with an initial time basis of two to three months, which is attenuated downstream but lasts up to seven months. The NID floodplains disappear in the dry season. The flood extent of the NID can reach an area between 20,000 and 30,000 km2, which is determined by the flow of the Niger and the Bani tributary.

34. With the planned construction of the Fomi dam upstream, the flow reduction of the Bani tributary, and the level of uncertainty of climate change effect on the Niger River flow in the future, it will be challenging to optimize water allocation among competing users while trying to preserve the integrity of wildlife and ecosystem services. For instance, it is suggested12, suggest a minimum flow of 50 m3/s in June to maintain the connection between Lake Walado and Lake Debo and notably ensure fish survival and therefore maintain economic value. The construction of the dams on the Bani tributary is not helping maintain this ecologic lifeline flow during June.

35. Yet, it is very difficult to put a value on ecosystem services, while Wetlands International provided a value on the NID wildlife, that is, only migrating birds, by applying a rather questionable benefit transfer on a willingness‐to‐pay survey per household done in the Netherlands to preserve migrating birds (the NID constituting 1 percent in terms of area in Africa of migrating birds). These results were extrapolated to all households in Europe to justify the need to preserve the NID wildlife. These benefits should probably be considered in such an analysis when these aggregated willingness‐to‐pay preferences are actually collected in Europe in the form of taxes and spent in the NID to preserve wildlife and ecosystem services. Moreover, the NID has an important esthetic and wildlife value that could attract a great deal of eco‐tourists. A travel cost method could be more suited, in the future, to derive a revealed preference from international tourists. However, tourism activities were disrupted in Mali since 2012. As a result, specific environmental benefits will not be included in the analysis below except indirectly as they sustain economic activities.

Suggested Multicriteria Analysis Indicators for Future Analysis and Policy Choices

36. The NID is facing increased pressure from the reduction of outflows and the growing degradation of the water quality although it is a building block of a series of wetland networks in the Western Africa. Yet, revitalization of the NID floodplains is constrained with multiple conflicting objectives, that is, the needs and requirements of other functions such as flood control, energy generation, navigation, and different forms of land uses such as agriculture, livestock, forestry, and recreation.

12 Zwarts et al (eds.), 2005. The Niger, a lifeline: Effective water management in the Upper Niger Basin.

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TABLE 4.7. SUGGESTED MULTICRITERIA INDICATORS FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

Input Indicator Name Indicator Description and Parameters

Flow regulation

Maximal flooded area Extent of flooding area

Useful flooded area Duration > 90 days, depth 2–5 m

Minimum flow downstream of Markala

Minimum 50 m3/s at Ké‐Macina

Hydropower Hydropower production Annual production needed in GW/h

Navigation Minimum flow along key corridors to ensure navigability

Duration 7–8 months, depth > 1.5 m

Water quality

Liquid and solid waste discharged Effluent parameters for municipalities, industries, agricultural runoff, mining, and waste (leachate and solid waste)

Food production

Floating rice in the NID Duration < 3 months, depth < 2 m although some varieties need more time

Mining Mining activities (sand, gravel, minerals, and so on)

Hot spots extraction affecting the integrity of the NID

Ecosystem health/biodiversity

Optimal area for bourgoutières Duration 5–7 months, depth 3–5 m

Flood depth in forest flooded stands Floods > 2 m

Potential area with open water Duration 5–7 months, depth > 5 m

Habitat for birds Based on suitable area of bourgoutières, open water, flood forest, and depth optima of species

Habitat for fish Based on suitable area of bourgoutières (spawning) and water depth > 2 m

Invasive species Areas where invasive species are spreading (water hyacinth, water lettuce, reeds, and so on)

Ambient pollution

Boat emissions during stopovers PM2.5, NOx, and SOx emissions

Carbon footprint

Boat emissions versus road emissions CO2/passenger/km and CO2/ton/km

Carbon sequestration from different crops

Comparative CO2 incremental emissions

37. Therefore, a multicriteria analysis should be considered along socioeconomic, ecosystem quality, and human health factors when choices have to be made in the future as the results of this economic analysis should be weighted and integrated in the multicriteria analysis process.

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38. Table 4.7 illustrates indicators that synthesize optimal parameters described in the subsections above and where trade‐offs must be arbitrated in the future. Although the economic analysis does not capture all these issues as its primary purpose is to justify the economic feasibility of the PREEFN, it will, however, be refined and integrated in a model based on simulation outflows and the NID extended riverbed topography that will predict the outcome associated with each indicator and parameter listed in Table 4.7 during and after the implementation of the PREEFN. Moreover, the model will be able to simulate the impact of the planned Fomi dam and the effects of climate change.

Benefit/Cost Analysis Assumptions

39. A number of key assumptions have been considered for the economic analysis for Component 1 and the overall project:

The exchange rate used is US$1 = CFAF 588.1 (September 15, 2016).

The economic analysis is carried out over a period of 20 years (from 2017 to 2036) with the assumption that replacement cost of new asset investments will be included in O&M (see below).

It is assumed that knowledge management, monitoring, and capacity building should be perpetuated beyond project implementation to reap the benefits in the long run.

A real discount rate is set at 6 percent for the economic analysis.

Priority investments are disbursed over four to five years of the implementation of the project. The right‐of‐way cost, including the price of land and any structures upon it, is zero as it is owned by the Government although it should usually be accounted for.

For Component 2, the annual O&M cost is set at 1 percent of total investment starting at year 4 until year 20 + CFAF 1 million x 7 for the annual maintenance of the docks. Infrastructure maintenance is covered by O&M over the lifetime of the investments. Recurrent dredging is set at 50 percent of the project dredging cost every three years.

The economic costs reach US$44.1 million for the base case scenario with an increase by US$5 million for the pessimistic scenario and a decrease of US$5 million for the optimistic scenario.

All benefits associated with controlling the gradual outflow of water are assumed to accrue irrespective of climate variability over the period as follows:

o For accrual of average transport benefits over 16 years, the increase in the number of days of navigation is considered for COMANAV and private operators along the three scenarios illustrated in Table 4.4 with 7 percent for low case, 9 percent for base case, and 10 percent for high case scenarios, respectively, of potential demand.

o For accrual of average livelihood benefits over 19 years for agricultural, fishery, bourgou, and tree planting.

Economic, Sensitivity and Scenario, and Analysis Results

40. An economic analysis was carried out and showed that Component 2 and the overall project are viable with an NPV discounted at 6 percent of US$43.8 million and US$25.9 million, respectively. The benefit/cost ratios are greater than 1 while the internal rates of return are positive and reach 30 percent and 15 percent (Table 4.8). The results are robust despite the conservative stance and the few benefits considered in the cost/benefit analysis. Table 4.9 illustrates the cost/benefit flows.

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TABLE 4.8. PROJECT COST/BENEFIT RESULTS

Key Economic Indicator Component 2 Overall Project

Discount Rate Discount Rate

6% 6%

Cost/benefit analysis

NPV (US$, millions) 43.8 25.9

ERR (%) 30% 15%

PV benefit/cost ratio 2.1 1.5

Project viability Yes Yes

TABLE 4.9 OVERALL PROJECT COST/BENEFIT FLOW TRUNCATED AT YEAR 4

Number of Years 20 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

2017 2018 2019 2020

Total

8.82 11.03 13.23 6.63

CAPEX 44.11 8.82 11.03 13.23 6.62

O&M quay 0.05

0.01

Other O&M 0.93

0.23

Dredging 7.10

Benefit

— — — 9.32

NPV benefit‐cost

(8.82) (11.03) (13.23) 2.46

Benefit‐cost analysis

Indicators Criteria 4% 6% 8%

NPV (US$, millions) Regular 37.7 25.9 17.0

ERR 15% 15% 15%

MERR 15% 14% 14% 14%

PV benefit/cost ratio 1.6 1.5 1.3

MERR= Marginal Economic Rates of Return

Source: See Table 4.12.

41. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to derive the overall project and component viability switch‐off point for cost increment, benefit decrement, and equal cost increment and benefit decrement with discount rates ranging from 4 percent to 8 percent. The switch‐off points when cost increment equals

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benefit decrement discounted at 6 percent are ±36 percent and ±18 percent for Component 2 and the overall project, respectively. The overall project and its components are more sensitive to a decrease in benefits than an increase in costs (Table 4.10 and 4.11).

TABLE 4.10. PROJECT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS

Key Economic Indicator Component 2 Overall Project

Discounted at Discounted at

4% 6% 8% 4% 6% 8%

Sensitivity analysis

NPV (US$, millions) 56.5 43.8 34.1 37.7 25.9 17.0

ERR (%) 30% 30% 30% 15% 15% 15%

PV benefit/cost ratio 4.3 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3

Switch‐off point

>Cost = <Benefit (±%) ±38% ±36% ±33% ±23% ±18% ±14%

>Cost (±%) +127% +114% +101% +59% +46% +33%

<Benefit (±%) −56% −53% −56% −37% −31% −25%

42. A scenario analysis was performed to determine the combined impact of variables of the overall project economic analysis that are usually analyzed separately. Table 4.11 provides the combined impact of variables for the overall project. The base case scenario is discounted at 6 percent and relies on the actual results as performed above for the overall project, where the pessimistic scenario is discounted at 8 percent and includes an increase of the economic investment cost by US$5 million annualized over five years with maritime transportation days yearly average decreased to 210 days (seven months) for both COMANAV and private operators; the optimistic scenario is discounted at 4 percent and includes a reduction of the economic investment cost by US$5 million annualized over five years with river transportation days yearly average increased to 270 days for both COMANAV and private operators. All scenarios are viable, including the pessimistic scenario viability that has some leverage to reach the switch‐off point. Also, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the overall project viability switch‐off point when cost increment equals benefit decrement: they reach ±18 percent and ±39 percent for base case and optimistic scenarios, respectively, whereas the pessimistic scenario is no longer viable. Again, the project is more sensitive to a reduction of benefits than an increase in costs (Table 4.11).

TABLE 4.11. PROJECT SCENARIO ANALYSIS RESULTS

Scenario

Variable

Pessimistic

Scenario at 8% Discount Rate

Base Case


Optimistic


Investment cost (US$, millions) +5 44.1 –5

Increase in sailing days, COMANAV (days) 210 240 270

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Scenario

Variable

Pessimistic


Base Case


Optimistic


Increase in sailing days, private operators (days)

210 240 270

NPV/20 years –9.2 25.9 75.5

ERR/20 years 4% 15% 25%

PV benefit/cost ratio/20 years 0.8 1.5 2.3

Project viability switch‐off point

>Cost = <Benefit (±%) ±0% ±18% ±39%

>Cost (±%) +0% +46% +129%

<Benefit (±%) –0% ‐31% –56%

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TABLE 4.12. TRANSPORT BENEFITS

Unit Parameter Month Month Month Month Month Month MonthComanav 4.5 7 8 9 7 8 9Effective Demand Pass avg. # passenger 7,362 11,452 13,088 14,724 Potential Demand pass avg. # passenger 56,898 88,508 101,152 113,796 Effective Average Pas/Km Pass/km 508.6 3,744,000 5,824,000 6,656,000 7,488,000 Potential Average Pas/Km Pass/km 28,935,902 45,011,403 51,441,604 57,871,804 Effective Revenue Passenger CFA 62.7 234,748,800 365,164,800 417,331,200 469,497,600 0.22 0.31 0.40 Potential Revenue Passenger CFA 62.7 1,814,281,068 2,822,214,995 3,225,388,565 3,628,562,136 4.40 5.09 5.77

Effective Demand Freight avg. Ton 7,834 12,186 13,927 15,668 Potential Demand Freight avg. Ton 119,610 186,060 212,640 239,220 Effective Average Volume/km Ton/km 550.4 4,312,000 6,707,556 7,665,778 8,624,000 Potential Average Volume/km Ton/km 65,835,885 102,411,376 117,041,573 131,671,769 Effective Rev Freight CFA/ton 56.9 245,305,368 381,586,128 436,098,432 490,610,736 0.23 0.32 0.42 Potential Rev Freight CFA/ton 56.9 3,745,337,639 5,826,080,772 6,658,378,025 7,490,675,279 9.49 10.90 12.32

Pinasses 5.5 7 8 9 Effective Demand Pass avg. # passenger 100,000 127,273 145,455 163,636 Potential Demand pass avg. # passenger 3,960,000 5,040,000 5,760,000 6,480,000 Effective Average Pass/Km Pass/km 169.5 16,951,915 21,575,165 24,657,331 27,739,498 Potential Average Pass/Km Pass/km 671,295,844 854,376,528 976,430,318 1,098,484,108 Effective Revenue Passenger Pass/km 11 186,471,068 237,326,813 271,230,644 305,134,474 0.09 0.14 0.20 Potential Revenue Passenger CFA/km 11 7,384,254,279 9,398,141,809 10,740,733,496 12,083,325,183 15.66 17.95 20.23

Effective Demand Freight avg. Ton 100,000 127,273 145,455 163,636 Potential Demand Freight avg. Ton 14,520,000 18,480,000 21,120,000 23,760,000 Effective Average Volume/km Ton/km 183.5 18,347,375 23,351,204 26,687,090 30,022,977 Potential Average Volume/km Ton/km 2,664,038,805 3,390,594,843 3,874,965,535 4,359,336,227 Effective Rev Freight CFA/ton 10.8 198,151,647 252,193,005 288,220,577 324,248,149 0.09 0.15 0.21 Potential Rev Freight CFA/ton 10.8 28,771,619,096 36,618,424,304 41,849,627,776 47,080,831,248 61.93 70.82 79.72

Grand total Effective CFA 0.63 0.93 1.23 Grand total Potential CFA 91.48 104.76 118.04 CFA/US$ Rate September 15, 2016 588.1 6.32 9.32 12.32

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Annex 5: Map of the project area

(Areas North East‐downstream‐of Macina Cercle will be included only if/when security situation allows)