the winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for astra lasse peltonen...

The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for ASTRA

Lasse PeltonenCentre for urban and regional studies

Helsinki University of TechnologyASTRA Meeting, 17-20 May 2006

Klaipeda, Lithuania

ASTRA Klaipeda 18-20.5.06 - Peltonen, Haanpää, Lehtonen/ CURS 2

Contents1. The background of the winter storm study

2. The storm event in January 2005

3. Impacts – sectoral examples

4. Responses

5. Lessons


Purpose of the winter storm case study

To make climate change concrete

Look at climate change adaptation from present-day climate variability perspective (instead of future climate according to models)

To engage ASTRA project partners in a shared task

Demonstrate both shared and specific challenges of CC adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region: one storm leads to different outcomes in different regional contexts

Use the case study for learning: what lessons can we draw from the event?


MethodA questionnaire to the ASTRA network on country- and region-specific impacts of the storm

Questionnaire complemened by other existing sources (reports, inquiries to experts and authorities)

Valuable input and in-depth studies by ASTRA project partners - Thank you!

Web-based demonstration will be developed based on the results


Gudrun a.k.a. ErwinThe winter storm in January 2005 was an extreme weather event that affected almost all of the participating countries around the Baltic sea.

The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for the Baltic Sea Region: fiercest event since 1969

Still, it was less damaging than the 1999 storms Lothar & Martin in western Europe


Gudrun (Erwin)storm path 8.-11.1.2005


Lähde:Saurí ym. 2003

Major storms track and land cover 1998-2002


Storm risk Storm risk patterns in Europe mapped by the ESPON 1.3.1 Hazards project

Exposure: Storm paths

Damage potential: Population density & assets at risk


Was the winter storm caused by climate change?

”It would certainly be exaggerating to develop horror scenarios for Europe as a result of climate change […] However, there is no doubt that in a warmer climate it will be necessary to expect much more frequent and more intensive windstorm and severe storm events”

Münich Re ”Winter Storms in Europe (II): Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials”


Changing storm frequencyLithuania has met with ten major storms in the last 50 years

each of these storms have been considered a once in a hundred years –event

Expectation: 1/100 yrs return period (1% yearly risk)

Recent reality: 1/5 yrs return period (20% yearly risk)

(Source: Eurosion –project 2000)


Impacts of the storm17 people died

hundreds of thousands people affected

Damages estimated at EUR 2.5 billion

Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries

Sectors most affected:

Natural resources (esp. forestry)

Energy production and distribution

Transport and Communications

Spatial development & infrastructure


Turku, Finland


Pärnu, Estonia


Forest damages in SwedenSweden heavily affected

75 Million cubic metres of forest damaged

Equal to the normal annual timber harvest

Are monoculture forests resilient?


Forestry loss categoriesAdditional cost of harvesting the fallen trees

Revenues lost as the price for timber falls as markets are overloaded

Reforestation of totally damaged areas

Costs of restoring the infrastructure related to forest management

Costs of aero surveilance and inventory

Source: Estonian WSS study (Kont et al. 2006)


Energy: power cutsEstonia: Interruption of electricity supplies to 5,500 electricity stations which make up 30% of the country's network

Latvia: the storm affected 60 % of the country’s territory, cutting 40% population from power: 23-day emergency

Lithuania: network came close to collapse: 1,4 million people affected

Sweden: some 730 000 people affected. total number of power-cut days were counted to add up to 2,3 million

Finland: Loviisa nuclear power plant closure threatened

Denmark: wind power turbines closed down


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Restoring power (e.g. Latvia)


Coastal erosionShoreline affected throughout the southern coasts of the study area

Different sensitivities of different locations (sediment)

Effects most severe in Latvia

Increased water level and wave action together affected the coastlines of Germany, Poland and Lithuania, too.


1

Tulvariskien huomioiminen maankäytön suunnittelussa jää kauaksi Suurtulvatyöryhmän esittämästä tasosta.

Effects of the Jan 2005 winter storm on the Baltic Sea

forest damages (mio m3)

sediments lost (mio m3)

(insured) economic losses (10 mio euros)

people without electricity (100 000 residents)

Map: Johanna Roto and Simo Haanpää /YTK

areas of reported coastal erosion

extensive forest damages

coasts affected by storm surge

affected areas as reported by Carpenter (2005)

trajectory of the cyclone centre (Suursaar et.al. 2006)

areas reported with power cuts

IMPORTANT! This map shows only approximate locations of the effects listed here!


The costsTotal costs estimated at 2,42 billion euros

of which 1,6 billion euros was insured

the 40th costliest insurance loss since 1970

(Source Swiss Re 2006)

Remember: not everything is reflected in the costs!


EUSF assistanceEuropean Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) is a special fund created in 2002 to assist EU Member states recover form major disasters

EUSF provided ca. 93 M€ in assistance

Sweden received 82 M€ (total damages at 2 300 M€)

Latvia received 9,5 M€ (damages 192 M€)

Estonia’s share was 1,3 M€ (damages 48 M€)

Lithuania received € 400 000 (total damages 15 M€)


Responses to the storm Early warning systems improvements

Improvements in communication systems initiated (e.g. Swedish forestry agency web pages for forest owners)

Technical preparedness (e.g. power generators for important sectors in Latvia)

Monitoring activities (e.g. Lithuanian coast)

Institutional initiatives (e.g. Espoo flood group,, Latvian Ministry of Interior)

regulatory initiatives (e.g. Stockholm county Electricity supply rules for entreprises)


Institutional response:example from Latvia

Latvian Ministry of Interior initiative:1. Improve the coordination between state institutions and

local municipalities, declare responsibilities of each institution

2. Budget planning to reserve funding to be available in the case of storms, flooding and similar hazards

3. Develop a system of public training and education in the area of civil defence

4. Increase applied research to develop the optimal system of hazard mitigation have been underlined.

5. Improve work in hazard identification within the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency.


Conclusion:Before the next storm, let’s…

Engage in planned adaptation: increase adaptive capacity, not only emergency & rescue operationsImprove early warning systems and immediate response capacity (rescue services) Improve communication channels between officials and towards the publicCo-operate on sectoral strategies: both public & private sectorsImprove documentation of storm effects: more uniform, publicly available data would enhance analysis and learningInitiate institutional measures to address resources and responsibilities of institution (state vs. municipality vs. private sector)Raise awareness on changing return periods for stormsStudy International & EU-level responses in the BSR


Thank you for your attention!

Helsinki University of Technology (TKK)Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (YTK)ASTRA teamLasse Peltonen, Simo Haanpää, Samuli Lehtonen

Contact:[email protected]@[email protected]

the winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event – a case study for astra lasse peltonen...

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