The weapons of mass destruction terrorism

COL. ENGR. JANOS TOMOLYA PhD

Defining WMDWeapons that have a relatively large-scale impact on people, property,

and/or infrastructure.

(A) any destructive device , incendiary, or poison gas(i.e. explosive device);

(B) any weapon that is designed or intended to cause death or serious bodily injury through the release, dissemination, or impact of toxic or poisonous chemicals, or their precursors;

(C) any weapon involving a biological agent or toxin(D) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity

at a level dangerous to human life.

CBRN weapons: chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear

1) Chemical Weapons

Chemical Weapons use the toxic properties of chemical substances to cause physical or psychological harm to an enemy

Many different kinds, including:

• Choking and blood agents (like chlorine, phosgene, fentanyl gas) cause respiratory damage and asphyxiation

• Blistering agents (like mustard gas and lewisite) cause painful burns requiring immediate medical attention

• Nerve gases degrade the functioning of the nervous system, causing a loss of muscle control, respiratory failure, and eventually death

Can be delivered through bombs, rockets, artillery shells, spray tanks, and missile warheads

Chemical Agents

• Intended to kill, seriously injure, or incapacitate people through physiological effects

• Incidents demand immediate reaction from emergency responders

• Can be introduced through aerosol devices, breaking containers, or covert dissemination

Types of Chemical Agents

Choking Blood Blister Nerve Tear•Chlorine•Diphosgene•Cyanide•Nitrogen Oxide•Perfluroriso-butylene•Phosgene•Red Phosphorous•Titanium Tetrachloride•Zinc Oxide

•Arsine•Cyanogen Chloride•Hydrogen Chloride•Hydrogen Cyanide

•Distilled Mustard•Lewisite•Mustard Gas•Nitrogen Mustard•Phosgene Oxime•Ethyldich-loroarsine•Methyldichloroarsine

•Cyclohexyl Sarin•GE•Sarin•Soman•Tabun•VE•VG•V-Gas•VM•VX

•Bromoben-zylcyanide•Chloroacet-ophenone•Chloropic-rin•CNB•CNC•CNS•CR•CS

Characteristics of an Incident Involving a Chemical Agent

• Effects mostly local to release site but may be distributed beyond release site by wind and contamination

• Area may be marked by unusual clouds, haze, mist, odors, tastes, droplets, etc.

• May be persistent in environment

Indicators of Possible Chemical Agent Use

• Stated threat to release a chemical agent• Initial unexplained casualties and illnesses• Unusual liquid, spray or vapor• Suspicious devices or packages

2) Biological Weapons

- Relatively cost-effective weapons - Considered by many to be the most insidious type of weapons

Biological weapons intentionally disseminate agents of infectious diseases to harm or kill others.

Key considerations include infectivity, virulence, toxicity, pathogenicity, the incubation period, transmissibility, lethality and stability.

* Bacteria (like Anthrax, Brucellosis, Tularemia, Plague)* Viruses (Smallpox, Marburg, Yellow Fever) * Rickettsia (Typhus fever, Spotted fever) * Fungi (the molds that cause stem rust of wheat and rye)* Toxins (like Ricin, Botulinum and Saxitoxin) aka “midspectrum”* Infectious Pathogens:

Emerging threats; SARS, Avian Influenza‘Old’ threats: TB, HIV, Malaria

Biological Agents

• Recognition of a biological hazard can occur through identification of a credible threat, discovery of bioterrorism evidence, diagnosis, and detection

• Delay between exposure and onset of illness• Victims may serve as carriers of the disease with the

capability of infecting others• Could affect agricultural commodities over a large area

Types of Biological Agents

Bacteria Viruses Toxins•Anthrax•Q-Fever•Tularemia•Psittacosis•Glanders•Melioidosis•Brucellosis•Plague

•Dengue Fever•Equine Encephalitis•Hantaan•Congo-Crimean HF•Chikungunya•Variola•Ebola•Smallpox

•Botulinum•SEB•Perfringens•Ricin•Saxitoxin•Tetrodotoxin•Mycotoxins

Characteristics of an Incident Involving a Biological Agent

• Immediate effects mostly local to release but may be expanded distribution through human transmittal

• Possible persistence in environment• Possible geographic contamination

Indicators of Possible Biological Agent Use

• Stated threat to release a biological agent• Initial unexplained deaths and illness possibly

beginning a day or more after an incident• Unusual occurrence of dead or dying animals• Unusual casualties• Unusual liquid, spray or vapor

BioterrorismThe intentional or threatened use of microorganisms

or biological toxins to kill or incapacitate people, animals or crops.

• Create terror, panic, uncertainty/uneasiness• Advance political/ religious/ apocalyptic beliefs• Asymmetrical response AKA “even the playing

field”• Doable and affordable• Effective

CriticalityChemical

• Effects are immediate and obvious

• Victims localized by time and place

• Overt• Illicit immediate response• First responders are police,

fire, EMS

Biological• Effects are delayed and not

obvious• Victims are dispersed in

time and place• Covert• No first responders• Unless announced, attack

identified by medical and public health personnel

Advantages of biological weapons

• Relatively easy to obtain• Relatively inexpensive to produce• Potential for dissemination over large

geographic area• Creates panic• Can overwhelm medical services• Perpetrators escape easily

• Incubation period

3) Radiological weapons

• A radiation emission device (RED) or a radiological dispersion device (RDD) – also known as a “dirty bomb” – is a bomb to cause panic and mass disruption; areas with severe radioactive contamination would be uninhabitable for many years.

• Built using radioactive material (such as cesium 137, cobalt 60, strontium 90, plutonium oxide and uranium oxide), which is dispersed by the detonation of conventional explosives.

• Myriad sources of radioactive material could be used for this purpose, like medical/educational facilities, atomic waste storage reservations, commercial sites, etc.– Many lack strong security, especially medical facilities,

educational institutions– Can also acquire radioactive materials via mail order or

Internet

Radiological Sources

Seed Irradiators: Used in the Former Soviet Union were mounted on trucks and used to irradiate seeds in order to kill fungus and inhibit germination. Each irradiator has activity levels of over 1,000 curies of cesium-137 in powdery form.

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator: Used in the Former Soviet Union to power light houses in remote locations. Many have become orphaned sources and are unaccounted for. RTGs can contain activity levels of ~30,000 curies of Strontium-90

Radiological Sources

Teletherapy Device (Cobalt-60 and Cesium-137)

Source activity: up to 10 kCi (370 TBq) 60Co.

4) Nuclear Weapons

• Unique in their explosive energy, derived from nuclear fission: splitting the nuclear of an atom, usually of highly enriched uranium or plutonium, into two or more parts by bombarding it with neutrons, and causing a chain reaction

• Destructive power up to 50 megatons

– 1,000 tons of TNT = 1 kiloton– WWII nukes = 15-22 kilotons– 1,000 kilotons = 1 megaton

• 2 types: Gun-type and Implosion

The History

• First major use in modern warfare (April 22, 1915);during World War I, the German army released chlorine gas in an attack against the French in Ypres, Belgium

• About 124,000 tons of chemical weapons were used by all sides during World War I, inflicting over a million casualties (90,000 fatalities).

• WWII examples of WMD include:

– Italy used mustard gas against Ethiopians– Japan used intestinal typhoid bacteria to poison a Soviet

water supply– Japan used air cargo drops of rice and wheat mixed with

plague-carrying fleas over China and Manchuria

The Changing EnvironmentDuring the Cold War• Bipolar international system• Monopoly of WMD by strong, powerful states• International treaties signed to curb WMD

proliferation• Stringent security surrounding atomic material in

US/USSR, mostly due to concerns about spying, espionage

The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed• Nuclear proliferation in South Asia, N. Korea,

Middle East• The Non-Proliferation Regime’s crisis of legitimacy • Fears of CBRN proliferation after Soviet collapse• Major advances in biotechnology

Terrorists and WMD“Dozens of identified domestic and international terrorists and terrorist groups have expressed their intent to obtain and use WMD.”

- Denis Blair, Director of National Intelligence, 2010“There is a high likelihood of some type of WMD terrorist attack by the year 2013.”

- Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, 2008

The HistoryHistory of use by non-state actors includes:• 1984, The Dalles, Oregon: Rajneeshes poison locals

with salmonella• June 1990, Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigers of Tamil

Eelam (LTTE) used chlorine gas in its assault on a Sri Lankan Armed Forces camp at East Kiran

• Japan, 1994-1995: Aum Shinrikyo uses Sarin gas in Matsumoto and Tokyo

• U.S., October 2001: anthrax attacks through U.S. mail

• Russia, 1995: Chechen rebels planted a dirty bomb in Moscow's Ismailovsky Park

Emerging Threat Indicators• June 2003, a Jemiaah Islamiah weapons storage

facility in Malaysia is found to contain various kinds of chemicals

• April 1985, a compound of the Sword, the Covenant and the Arm of the Lord is found to have a 55-gallon barrel of cyanide

• January 2003, an apartment in north London is found to have raw ingredients for making cyanide and ricin, as well as instruction manuals

• January 2004, seven pounds of cyanide salt are found during a raid on a Baghdad house reportedly connected with al Qaeda

• November 2004, a “chemical laboratory” is discovered in Fallujah containing potassium cyanide, hydrochloric acid, and sulfuric acid

The Changing Environment

Contemporary threat vectors include:• The transfer, theft and detonation of an intact nuclear weapon (INW) by a

terrorist group like al Qaida• WMD designs, instruction manuals available online• The theft or purchase of fissile material (by states or terrorists) to fabricate

and detonate a crude nuke – an improvised nuclear device (IND)

“Pre-positioned WMD” • Nuclear power plants• Chemical storage facilities• Bio-technology labs• Dams, water protection infrastructure (e.g., Katrina)• Urban transportation of toxic chemicals

A Model for Analysis

High

Low

Low

High Capabilities & Opportunities

Intentions

Motivations

NonviolentProtests

Apocalyptic Terrorism

Threshold of catastrophic violence

A Spectrum of Ideologies

Groups that want to change the world, but reject the need for violent means

Groups that want to destroy the world, for various reasons,possibly with WMD

Groups that want to change the world, and see a need for violent means

Weapon EffectsDifferent interests according to weapon type

• Biological and chemical weapons can be deployed silently. Effects produced by chemical and biological weapons are usually delayed and spread over time.

• Radiological weapons involve both explosion and long-term effects

• Nuclear weapons are unique in their explosive energy (derived from fission) which can cause catastrophic damage and long-term radiation

• Terrorists prefer spectacular, massive impact, instant worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect

• Thus, nuclear or radiological may be more likely, but are more significantly more difficult

Differences Between WMD Incidents and Other Incidents1

1. Situation may not be recognizable until there are multiple casualties

2. There may be multiple events3. Responders are placed at a higher risk of becoming

casualties4. The location of the incident will be treated as a crime

scene5. Contamination of critical facilities and large geographic

areas may result

6. Scope of the incident may expand geometrically and may affect mutual aid jurisdictions

7. There will be a stronger reaction from the public than with other types of incidents

8. Time is working against responding elements9. Support facilities are at risk as targets10. Specialized State and local response capabilities may be

overwhelmed

Differences Between WMD Incidents and Other Incidents1

Types of Terrorist Threats to Transportation Facilities

• Structural/functional damage/destruction resulting from portable, truck-or boat-borne explosives and fire damage

• Casualties from blast or fire• System shutdown via exposure and contamination from

biological and/or chemical WMD, e.g., introduced through tunnel vents

• Collateral damage to other lifelines, e.g., telecommunications, power, and pipelines carried along bridges or tunnels

Radiological Agents/Nuclear Weapons

• An attack may be difficult to detect - the presence of radioactive material may or may not be obvious

• Different devices may be used to launch an attack:– Improvised Nuclear Device (IND)– Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD)– Simple RDD

Types of Nuclear Radiation Emitted From Radioactive Materials

• Alpha Radiation– Internal hazard

• Beta Radiation– Slight or Internal hazard

• Gamma Radiation– Acute hazard

Alpha Particle

Beta ParticleGamma Rays

PAPE

R

SKIN

LE

AD

Indicators of Possible Radiological Agent/Nuclear Weapon Use

(e.g., dispersion of radioactive material by non-nuclear explosion or pressurized gas, nuclear detonation with radioactive fallout)

• A stated threat to deploy a nuclear or radiological device

• Unexplained deaths and illness• The presence of nuclear or radiological equipment

(e.g., spent fuel canisters or nuclear transport vehicles)

• Nuclear placards or warning materials along with otherwise unexplained casualties

Characteristics of an Incident Involving a Radiological Agent or Nuclear Weapon

• Effects mostly local to release but may be some distribution via, e.g, wind beyond release site

• Persistence in environment• Geographic contamination• Extensive radioactive fallout• Radioactive poisoning of foodstuffs, water sources and

long-term illnesses• Large-scale infrastructure destruction • Conventional explosive used for dispersal may cause

additional effects and explosions

Conventional Explosive Devices

• Easiest to obtain and use• May be used to cause massive local destruction or

to disperse chemical, biological or radiological agents

• Characterized as being explosive or incendiary, employing high or low filler explosive materials to explode and/or cause fires

High Explosives

• RDX• ANFO (Ammonium nitrate fuel oil solution)• Potassium Chlorate• Nitrostarch Explosives• Picric Acid (Tri-Nitro-Phenol)• Ammonium Picrate (Explosive-D)• Lead Azide• Dynamite

Relative Destructive Forces of Explosives

Explosive Type

Detonation Velocity (km/s)

Overpressure Conversion Factor

Charge Required

TNT 6.94 1 1 lb.RDX 8.64 1.3 0.75 lbs.ANFO 5 0.4 2.4 lbs.

Vehicle Bomb Explosion Effects

Source: Federal Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Agency website

Summary• Proliferation of WMD (or CBRN weapons) is among

the world’s most daunting security challenges • U.S. and International community struggling to

contain the spreading availability of WMD– No IAEA-like watchdog for chemical or biological

weapons• Multiple countries are seeking to expand their

WMD capabilities• Scientific expertise and dual-use technological

equipment become more readily available through globalization

• New technologies make some weapons easier, cheaper to make; possible implications for terrorists or other violent non-state actors to acquire and use them

Final Thoughts

• The threat is real, but within narrow parameters

• Most important dimensions for terrorists:– Motivations– Materials availability– Knowledge– Opportunities– Weapons attributes

References• “Guide for All-Hazard Emergency Operations Planning”, State and

Local Guide (101), Chapter 6, Attachment G- Terrorism, FEMA, April 2001

• “Emergency Response to Terrorism, Self-Study”, FEMA/USFA/NFA-ERT:SS, June 1999

• “Surface Transportation Vulnerability Assessment”, U.S. DOT, RSPA, Volpe Center, Oct. 25, 2001

• “A Guide to Highway Vulnerability Assessment for Critical Asset Identification and Protection”, http://security.transportation.org/community/security/guides.html

• FEMA: Concept of Operations Plan – Situation, www.fema.gov/rrr/conplan/conpln3b.shtm

• Various other WMD related websites

UNCLASSIFIED

Questions?