the warren buffett way:investing from a business perspective
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 The Warren Buffett Way:Investing From a Business Perspective
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BBII DeurkbfDbkubry 299=1
Zmg Sbrrgk @uaagtt Sby4Ikvgstikc Areh b @usikgss \grspgntivg@y Hbrib Nrbwaerj ^nett
SEPO^ME\
^ZENO
BKBFY^I^
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Hbrib Nrbwaerj ^nett is gjiter ea tmgBBII Deurkbf+
\re`b fy tmg `gst(okewk ikvgsthgkt curu tejby is Sbrrgk@uaagtt+ Zmreucm mis pu finfy trbjgj mefjikc nehpbky& @gro(
smirg Mbtmbwby& @uaagtt mbs `uift bk ihprgssivg ikvgsthgkttrbno rgnerj& bs wgff bs b pgrsekbf aertukg tmbt pfbngs mih
neksistgktfy ek tmg Aer`gs fist ea tmg wgbftmigst Bhgrinbks+@uaagtt is eatgk ijgktiaigj witm @gkdbhik Crbmbh& witm wmeh
mg stujigj& werogj ukjgr& bkj hbiktbikgj b fekc arigkjsmip+Mewgvgr& mis ewk ikvgsthgkt gxpgrigkng mbs fgj mih te bjepttmg bpprebnmgs ea etmgr ikvgsthgkt piekggrs& bs wgff& ik pbrtinu(
fbr \mifip Aismgrs aenus ek tmg ihpertbkng ea b usikgsss crewtmprespgnts bkj hbkbcghgkt+ _Aer herg ek @gkdbhik Crbmbh&
sgg Qbfug Ikvgstikc4 B Feeo bt tmg @gkdbhik Crbmbh Bp(prebnm ik tmg Hby 2991BBII Deurkbf? aer herg ek \mifip Aismgr&
sgg Its Rubfity Zmbt Neukts4 Zmg Aismgr Bpprebnm te ^teno
Ikvgstikc ik tmg ^gptgh`gr 2991BBII Deurkbf+X@uaagtt mbs kgvgr gxpeukjgj gxtgksivgfy ek mis ikvgsthgkt
bpprebnm& bftmeucm it nbk `g cfgbkgj areh mis writikcs bkjgxpfbkbtieks ea mefjikcs ik tmg @grosmirg Mbtmbwby bkkubf
rgperts+ Eutsijgrs& mewgvgr& mbvg bttghptgj te put tecgtmgrgxpfbkbtieks ea mis ikvgsthgkt styfg+ Ekg rgngktfy pu fismgj
`eeo tmbt jisnussgs mis bpprebnm ik bk iktgrgstikc bkj hgtmeji(nbf absmiek is @uaagttefecy4 Zmg \rgvieusfy Wkgxpfbikgj Zgnm(kiqugs Zmbt Mbvg Hbjg Sbrrgk @uaagtt tmg Serfjs Hest Ab(
heus Ikvgster& `y Hbry @uaagtt& b aerhgr jbucmtgr(ik(fbw ea@uaagtts& bkj Jbvij Nfbro& b abhify arigkj bkj pertaefie hbkbcgr
_tmg `eeo is pu`fismgj `y ^ihek ! ^nmustgr& =>1?*03+
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7/28/2019 The Warren Buffett Way:Investing From a Business Perspective
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^teno Bkbfysis Serosmep 3
`usikgssgs tmbt brg ik brgbs tmbt brg rgfbtivgfy gbsy te ukjgr(stbkj+
Ik mis vigw& `usikgssgs nbk `g jivijgj ikte twe `bsin typgs4 Nehhejity(`bsgj airhs& sgffikc prejunts ik micmfy neh(
pgtitivg hbrogts ik wminm pring pfbys tmg ogy refg ik b
neksuhgrs purnmbsg jgnisiek+ Gxbhpfgs iknfujg tgxtifghbkuabnturgrs& prejungrs ea rbw aeej itghs sunm bs nerk
bkj ring& eif bkj cbs nehpbkigs& tmg fuh`gr ikjustry& bkj
gvgk nbr hbkuabnturgrs+ Neksuhgr hekepefigs& sgffikc prejunts ik wminm tmgrg is
ke gaagntivg nehpgtiter& gitmgr jug te b pbtgkt er `rbkjkbhg er sihifbr iktbkci`fg tmbt hbogs tmg prejunt ukiqug+
Gxbhpfgs iknfujg `rbkj(kbhg nehpbkigs sunm bs Nenb(Nefb& hgjib bkj nehhukinbtieks nehpbkigs& bkj ngrtbik
aikbknibf sgrvings airhs+@uaagtt jegs ket purnmbsg tmg stenos ea nehhejity(`bsgj
`usikgssgs+ Zmgsg ikjustrigs brg micmfy nehpgtitivg bkj jehi(kbtgj `y tmg fewgst(nest prejungr+ Ze nehpgtg gaagntivgfy&nehpbkigs hust spgkj mgbvify ek hbkuabnturikc ihprevg(
hgkts& wminm fgbvgs fgss tmbt nbk `g spgkt ek kgw prejuntjgvgfephgkt er kgw gktgrprisgs+ Ik bjjitiek& tmgsg nehpbkigs
hust mbvg tep(ketnm hbkbcghgkt te survivg& `ut preaits brgogpt few `y pring nehpgtitiek+
Mew je yeu spet b nehhejity(`bsgj nehpbky5 @uaagtt feeosaer tmgsg nmbrbntgristins4 Zmg airh mbs few preait hbrciks -kgt iknehg jivijgj `y
rgvgkugs? Zmg airh mbs few rgturks ek gquity -kgt iknehg jivijgj y
smbrgmefjgrs gquity)? Zmgrg is fittfg `rbkj(kbhg feybfty aer its prejunts?
Zmg ikjustry mbs huftipfg prejungrs? Zmg ikjustry tgkjs te mbvg su`stbktibf gxngss prejuntiek
nbpbnity?
\reaits tgkj te `g grrbtin? bkj Zmg airhs preaitb`ifity jgpgkjs ek hbkbcghgkts b`ifitigs
te gaainigktfy usg tbkci`fg bssgts+Zmg oikjs ea `usikgssgs @uaagtt sggos brg tmesg tmbt mbvg b
neksuhgr hekepefy+ Zmgsg brg nehpbkigs tmbt mbvg hbkbcgjte nrgbtg b prejunt er sgrving tmbt is sehgmew ukiqug bkj
jiaainuft te rgprejung y nehpgtiters& gitmgr jug te rbkj(kbhgfeybfty& b pbrtinufbr hbrogt kinmg tmbt ekfy b fihitgj kuh`gr eanehpbkigs nbk gktgr& er bk ukrgcufbtgj `ut fgcbf hekepefy
sunm bs b pbtgkt+ Zmg gxngptieks te tmg neksuhgr hekepefyrufg brg utifitigs bkj sihifbr ikjustrigs tmbt mbvg b fgcbf he(
kepefy `ut brg mgbvify rgcufbtgj+Neksuhgr hekepefigs nbk bfse typinbffy bjdust tmgir prings
quinofy te ikafbtiek sikng tmgrg is fittfg pring nehpgtitiek te oggpprings ik nmgno+ Zmis ikafbtiek(bjdustikc b ifity is bketmgr ogyabnter @uaagtt abvers ik b airh+
Ik @uaagtts vigw& tmg rgbf vbfug ea neksuhgr hekepefigs is iktmgir iktbkci fgsaer ikstbkng& `rbkj(kbhg feybfty& rgcufbtery
fingksgs& bkj pbtgkts+ Zmgy je ket mbvg te rgfy mgbvify ekikvgsthgkts ik fbkj& pfbkt& bkj gquiphgkt& bkj typinbffy tmg
prejunts brg few(tgnm+ Bs b rgsuft ea bff ea tmgsg abnters& tmgy tgkjte mbvg fbrcg nbsm afews bkj few jg`t+
Ik jgtgrhikikc wmgtmgr b nehpbky mbs b neksuhgr he(
kepefy& @uaagtt pesgs tmg qugstiek4 Ia mg mbj bnngss te iffieksea jeffbrs bkj tmg tep 7< hbkbcgrs ik tmg neuktry& neufj mg stbrt
b `usikgss bkj nehpgtg witm tmg `usikgss ik qugstiek5 Ia tmgbkswgr is ke& tmg nehpbky is hest fiogfy pretgntgj areh nehpg(titiek `y sehg oikj ea strekc neksuhgr hekepefy+
Neksuhgr hekepefigs nbk `g `usikgssgs tmbt sgff prejuntser sgrvings+ Zmgy iknfujg4
@usikgssgs tmbt hbog prejunts tmbt wgbr eut er brg usgj
up quinofy bkj mbvg `rbkj(kbhg bppgbf tmbt hgrnmbktshust nbrry te bttrbnt nustehgrs+ Zmg `gst gxbhpfg& bnnerj(ikc te tmg eeo& is Nenb(Nefb& b abveritg @uaagtt mefjikc aerherg tmbk 0< ygbrs+ Zmg prejunt is bk itgh tmbt crengry
stergs& rgstburbkts& bkj etmgr rgtbifgrs sihpfy hust nbrry+ Ikbjjitiek& tmg rbkj kbhg feybfty gxists werfjwijg& ket dust
ik tmg W+^+ Etmgr gxbhpfgs iknfujg fgbjikc kgwspbpgrs&jruc nehpbkigs witm pbtgkts bkj `rbkj(kbhg prgsnrip(
tiek jrucs& bkj pepufbr `rbkj(kbhg rgstburbkts sunm bsHnJekbfjs+
Nehhukinbtieks airhs tmbt previjg sgrvings `usikgssgs
hust usg te rgbnm neksuhgrs+ Bff `usikgssgs hust bjvgr(tisg tmgir wbrgs te petgktibf neksuhgrs& bkj hbky ea tmg
bvbifb`fg hgjib abng fittfg nehpgtitiek+ Zmgsg iknfujgwerfjwijg bjvgrtisikc bcgknigs& hbcbzikg pu fismgrs& kgws(
pbpgrs& bkj tgfgnehhukinbtieks kgtweros+ @usikgssgs tmbt previjg neksuhgr sgrvings tmbt brg bfwbys
ik jghbkj+ Hest ea tmgsg sgrvings rgquirg fittfg ik tmg wby
ea pfbkts bkj gquiphgkt& se tmg nehpbky jegs ket rgquirgmgbvy nbpitbf gxpgkjiturgs& bkj tmgy je ket tgkj te rg(
quirg micmfy pbij weroaerngs+ Gxbhpfgs iknfujg tbxprgpbrgrs M ! P @feno? ^grvingHbstgr& wminm previjgs
preagssiekbf nfgbkikc& hbij sgrving bkj fbwk nbrg? bkjnrgjit nbrj nehpbkigs sunm bs Bhgrinbk Gxprgss bkj Jgbk
Sittgr Jisnevgr+
Etmgr Nmbrbntgristins@uaagtt gfigvgs tmbt b neksuhgr hekepefy is b ogy ikcrgjigkt
ea bk gxngffgkt nehpbky+ Bketmgr ogy ikcrgjigkt& mewgvgr& is b
nbpb fg hbkbcghgkt tmbt nbk gxpfeit tmg nehpbkys ukiqugbjvbktbcg+
Mew je yeu dujcg hbkbcghgkts b ifity5 @uaagtt feeos aer tmgaeffewikc nmbrbntgristins4B strekc upwbrj trgkj ik gbrkikcs4 @uaagtt sggos ket ekfy b
strekc upwbrj trgkj ik gbrkikcs evgr b fekc(tgrh tihgpgriej& `ut mg sggos ygbr(`y(ygbr iknrgbsgs bs wgff& pre(
vijikc bk ikjinbtiek tmbt hbkbcghgkt is b`fg te turk tmgnehpbkys neksuhgr hekepefy bjvbktbcg ikte smbrgmefjgr
vbfug+ Neksgrvbtivg aikbknikc4 Neksuhgr hekepefigs tgkj te mbvg
strekc nbsm afews& witm fittfg kggj aer fekc(tgrh jg`t+ Nenb(
Nefb& aer ikstbkng& mbs fekc(tgrh jg`t ea fgss tmbk ekgtihgs nurrgkt kgt gbrkikcs+ @uaagtt jegs ket e`dgnt te tmg
usg ea jg`t aer b ceej purpesgaer gxbhpfg& ia b nehpbkybjjs jg`t te purnmbsg bketmgr neksuhgr hekepefy -aer
gxbhpfg& wmgk Nbpitbf Nitigs bnquirgj B@N tgfgvisiek bkjrbjie)+ Mewgvgr& mg jegs e`dgnt ia tmg bjjgj jg`t is usgjik b wby tmbt wiff prejung hgjienrg rgsuftssunm bs pur(
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7/28/2019 The Warren Buffett Way:Investing From a Business Perspective
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BBII DeurkbfDbkubry 299==
nmbsikc b nehhejity(typg `usikgss+ B neksistgktfy micm rgturk ek smbrgmefjgrs gquity4 ^ikng tmg
bvgrbcg rgturk ek gquity aer W+^+ airhs evgr tmg fbst :< ygbrsmbs `ggk b`eut 20'& @uaagtt sggos airhs witm rgturks ekgquity ea 27' er micmgr& previjikc b ceej ikjinbtiek tmbt
hbkbcghgkt nbk hbog hekgy areh its gxistikc `usikgssbkj nbk preaitb`fy ghpfey rgtbikgj gbrkikcs+
B micm fgvgf ea rgtbikgj gbrkikcs4 @uaagtt `gfigvgs tmbt tmg
rgbf crewtm ik steno vbfug nehgs areh rgikvgstikc gbrkikcste gxpbkj epgrbtieks er purnmbsg kgw vgkturgs+ Zmus& mgprgagrs nehpbkigs tmbt tgkj te rgikvgst rgtbikgj gbrkikcsrbtmgr tmbk tmesg tmbt brg nehhittgj te pbyikc eut b micm
pgrngktbcg ea preaits ik jivijgkjs+ Few fgvgf ea spgkjikc kggjgj te hbiktbik nurrgkt epgrbtieks4
Pgtbikgj gbrkikcs hust airst ce te hbiktbik nurrgkt epgrb(
tieks bt nehpgtitivg fgvgfs& se tmg fewgr tmg bheukt rg(quirgj te hbiktbik nurrgkt epgrbtieks& tmg herg rgtbikgj
gbrkikcs nbk `g usgj te aikbkng gxpbksieks er kgw vgk(turgs+
\reaitb`fg usg ea rgtbikgj gbrkikcs4 @uaagtt neksijgrs tmis ekgea tmg hest ihpertbkt qugstieks ik bkbfyzikc b nehpbkyshbkbcghgkt+ Zmg kbturg ea tmg `usikgss wiff tgkj te jin(
tbtg b nehpbkys b`ifity te rgtbik gbrkikcs bkj tmg kggj te
spgkj tmesg gbrkikcs te hbiktbik nurrgkt epgrbtieks? put(tikc tmesg rgtbikgj gbrkikcs te preaitb`fg usg& mewgvgr&rgquirgs hbkbcgribf tbfgkt+ Pgtbikgj gbrkikcs nbk g usgjte `uy preaitb`fg `usikgss vgkturgs& te gxpbkj gxistikc
epgrbtieks& er te rgpurnmbsg gxistikc smbrgs areh smbrg(mefjgrs? it is hbkbcghgkts rgspeksi`ifity te jgtgrhikg
wminm bftgrkbtivg eaagrs tmg crgbtgr ikvgsthgkt rgturk te
Zmg Sbrrgk @uaagtt Bpprebnm
\mifesepmy bkj styfg
Ikvgsthgkt ik stenos `bsgj ek tmgir iktriksin vbfug& wmgrg vbfug is hgbsurgj `y tmg b`ifity te cgkgrbtg gbrkikcs bkj jivijgkjs evgr tmg ygbrs+ @uaagtt
tbrcgts sunngssauf `usikgssgstmesg witm gxpbkjikc iktriksin vbfugs& wminm mg sggos te `uy bt b pring tmbt hbogs gnekehin sgksg& jgaikgj bs gbrkikc
bk bkkubf rbtg ea rgturk ea bt fgbst 27' aer bt fgbst aivg er 2< ygbrs+
Wkivgrsg ea stenos
Ke fihitbtiek ek steno sizg& `ut bkbfysis rgquirgs tmbt tmg nehpbky mbvg `ggk ik gxistgkng aer b neksijgrb`fg pgriej ea tihg+
Nritgrib aer ikitibf neksijgrbtiek
Neksuhgr hekepefigs& sgffikc prejunts ik wminm tmgrg is ke gaagntivg nehpgtiter& gitmgr jug te b pbtgkt er `rbkj kbhg er sihifbr iktbkci`fg tmbt
hbogs tmg prejunt ukiqug+ Ik bjjitiek& mg prgagrs nehpbkigs tmbt brg ik `usikgssgs tmbt brg rgfbtivgfy gbsy te ukjgrstbkj bkj bkbfyzg& bkj tmbt mbvg
tmg b`ifity te bjdust tmgir prings aer ikafbtiek+
Etmgr abnters
B strekc upwbrj trgkj ik gbrkikcs
Neksgrvbtivg aikbknikc
B neksistgktfy micm rgturk ek smbrgmefjgrs gquity
B micm fgvgf ea rgtbikgj gbrkikcs
Few fgvgf ea spgkjikc kggjgj te hbiktbik nurrgkt epgrbtieks
\reaitb`fg usg ea rgtbikgj gbrkikcs
Qbfuikc b ^teno
@uaagtt usgs sgvgrbf bpprebnmgs& iknfujikc4
Jgtgrhikikc airhs ikitibf rbtg ea rgturk bkj its vbfug rgfbtivg te cevgrkhgkt `ekjs4 Gbrkikcs pgr smbrg aer tmg ygbr jivijgj `y tmg fekc(tgrh cevgrkhgkt
`ekj iktgrgst rbtg+ Zmg rgsuftikc aicurg is tmg rgfbtivg vbfugtmg pring tmbt weufj rgsuft ik bk ikitibf rgturk gqubf te tmg rgturk pbij ek cevgrk(
hgkt `ekjs+
\redgntikc bk bkkubf nehpeukjikc rbtg ea rgturk `bsgj ek misterinbf gbrkikcs pgr smbrg iknrgbsgs4 Nurrgkt gbrkikcs pgr smbrg aicurg bkj tmg bvgrbcgcrewtm ik gbrkikcs pgr smbrg evgr tmg pbst 2< ygbrs brg usgj te jgtgrhikg tmg gbrkikcs pgr smbrg ik ygbr 2
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7/28/2019 The Warren Buffett Way:Investing From a Business Perspective
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^teno Bkbfysis Serosmep 9
smbrgmefjgrs+ @uaagtt vigws smbrg rgpurnmbsgs abverb`fy&sikng tmgy nbusg pgr smbrg gbrkikcs iknrgbsgs aer tmesg
wme jekt sgff& rgsuftikc ik bk iknrgbsg ik tmg stenos hbrogtpring+ Zmus& @uaagtt gxbhikgs hbkbcghgkts usg ea rg(tbikgj gbrkikcs& feeoikc aer hbkbcghgkts tmbt mbvg prevgk
tmgy brg b`fg te ghpfey rgtbikgj gbrkikcs ik kgwhekgyhboikc vgkturgs& er aer steno `uy`bnos wmgk tmgy
weufj eaagr b crgbtgr rgturk+
Qbfuikc b ^mbrg
Ijgktiayikc b nehpbky tmbt mg wbkts te ewk is ekfy tmg airst
stgp ik @uaagtts ikvgsthgkt bpprebnm+ Zmg kgxt stgp is tejgtgrhikg wmgtmgr tmg purnmbsg pring hbogs gnekehin sgksg+
@uaagt usgs b kuh`gr ea jiaagrgkt hgtmejs te gvbfubtg smbrgpring& iknfujikc sepmistinbtgj bkj jgtbifgj bkbfysgs ea b
nehpbkys vbrieus epgrbtieks+ Zmg `eeo previjgs sgvgrbf eatmgsg bpprebnmgs ik b sihpfiaigj aerhbt& `ut witm pfgkty eagxbhpfgs+
Ekg bpprebnm is te gxbhikg b prespgntivg airhs ikitibf rbtgea rgturk bkj its vbfug rgfbtivg te cevgrkhgkt `ekjs `y tboikc
tmg gbrkikcs pgr smbrg aer tmg ygbr bkj jivijikc it `y tmg fekc(tgrh cevgrkhgkt ekj iktgrgst rbtg+ Aer ikstbkng& @uaagtt stbrtgj
`uyikc Cbkkgtt Nerp+& b kgwspbpgr mefjikc nehpbky& ik 299:+Ik tmbt ygbr& 299: gbrkikcs pgr smbrg wgrg gstihbtgj te g *>+0