the value of transportation resilience...dec 18, 2019 · economic impact and should be treated...
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The Value of Transportation Resilience: Economic Impacts of Disruptions
in Major U.S. Cities
Igor Linkov and
Margaret Kurth
Risk and Decision Sciences Team,
US Army Corps of Engineers
Concord, MA
6172339869
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US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Environmental LaboratoryCoastal & Hydraulics LaboratoryGeotechnical & Structures LaboratoryInformation Technology LaboratoryHeadquarters (Vicksburg, MS)
Construction EngineeringResearch Laboratory(Champaign, IL)
Topographic Engineering Center(Alexandria, VA)
Cold Regions Research Engineering Laboratory(Hanover, NH)
Field Offices
Laboratories
2500 Employees
Research Laboratories
of the
Corps of Engineers
Over 1000 engineers and scientists 28% PhDs; 43 %
MS degrees, $1.3B Budget Annually
Risk and Decision Science Team Boston, MA)
2
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Risk & Decision Science Team
Mission: to improve decision-making and stakeholder engagement through application and development of risk and decision science techniques.
Execution: through risk assessment, technology-supported stakeholder engagement, decision modeling, portfolio optimization, life cycle assessment, and software development.
Results: help clients to describe relevant risks, identify and compare risk management alternatives, develop consensus among disparate stakeholder groups, and provide repeatable and transparent processes for future decisions.
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Main Ideas
• Transportation is a complex and adaptive
system and system analysis is necessary
• Resilience can be quantified using
Metrics-based and Network Science tools
• Risk and Resilience has different
economic impact and should be treated
differently
• Economic Model should be connected
with Resilience models to help in
transportation planning
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5
“Resilience" means the
ability to anticipate,
prepare for, and adapt to
changing conditions and
withstand, respond to,
and recover rapidly from
disruptions.
(vi) Effective immediately, it is the
policy of the executive branch to build
and maintain a modern, secure, and
more resilient executive branch IT
architecture.
Calls for Resilience
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Risk -- “a situation involving
exposure to danger [threat].”
Security -- “the state of being
free from danger or threat.”
Resilience -- “the capacity to
recover quickly from difficulties.”
Definitions by Oxford Dictionary
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System Risk/Security and Resilience
PlanAda
pt
Ti
me
Critical
Functi
onality
System
Resilien
ce
Risk
Analysis
Conseque
nce
Risk
After Linkov et al, Nature Climate Change 2014
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State of Practice
Science
Business
Case
Practice
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Focus is on quantification
After Kott & Linkov book on Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks (2019)
Science
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Issues with Using Metrics-Based
Approaches to Measure Resilience
Lack of Causal Model
Changing environments and circumstances may change correlating factors
Changing business and management plans may change how previously causal factors interact
May not work in circumstances different than under those they were designed for
Not everything that counts can be counted, and
not everything that can be counted counts.
Albert Einstein
Science
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Issues From Whence Does Resilience Come?Science
Time
AdaptRecoverAbsorbPlan/PreparePrevious Cycle
• State and capability of
equipment and
personnel, network
structure
• Event recognition and
system performance to
maintain function
• System changes to
recover previous
functionality
• Changes to improve system
resilience
Physical
Information • Data preparation,
presentation, analysis,
and storage
• Real-time assessment
of functionality,
anticipation of
cascading losses and
event closure
• Creation and improvement
of data storage and use
protocols
• Data use to track
recovery progress and
anticipate recovery
scenarios
Cognitive • System design and
operation decisions,
with anticipation of
adverse events
• Contingency protocols
and proactive event
management
• Design of new system
configurations, objectives,
and decision criteria
• Recovery decision-
making and
communication
Adverse Event
Social • Social network, social
capital, institutional and
cultural norms, and
training
• Resourceful and
accessible personnel
and social institutions
for event response
• Addition of or changes to
institutions, policies, training
programs, and culture
• Teamwork and
knowledge sharing to
enhance system
recovery
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Ways to Model
From Keisler and Linkov, 2014
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Reacting is More Expensive than Preventing
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar
Weather and Climate Disasters (2019). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/
Business
Case
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High Indirect Losses
from Kunz et al., 2013
Business
Case
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After Bostick et al. (2018) in Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Business
Case
Resilience Can Pick Up Where Risk Mitigation Ends
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Vision for Systems Resilience16
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Formalize Resilience in Decision-Making
Process ModelEconomic
Analysis
Alternative
Management 1
Trade-Off
Analysis
Forecasted
Performance
Alternative
Management 2
Alternative
Management 3
Practice
Resilience
Performance
Metric(s)
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Case Study:
Transportation Network Model
+
REMI
Practice
Business
Case
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Poor Efficiency:
System cannot not accommodate a large volume of commuters
driving at the same time.
Traffic congestions are predictable and are typically of
moderate level.
Lack of Resilience:
System cannot recover from adverse events
(car accidents, natural disasters)
Traffic disruptions are not predictable and of variable scale.
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Resilience
Model
DelaysRandom
Network
Disruptions Delays
Scenario 1
“Baseline”
Scenario 2
Interested in:
1. Temporal Patterns of Disruptions
2. Compare Multiple Cities
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Transportation Network Model:
1) Build networks comprise of road links and
intersection nodes
2) Assign travelers and routes
3) Calculate free flow travel times and actual
travel times
4) Calculate normal delay
5) Calibrate model to data
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22
Transportation Networks in 40 Cities
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23
Temporal Pattern of Recovery) (5% disruption)
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Innovative solutions for a safer, better worldBUILDING STRONG®Resilience and efficiency vary greatly from city to city
De
lay,
ho
urs
Lack of Resilience to 5% Disruption
Adds Variable Additional Delay
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Resilience vs Efficiency at 5% disruption
Efficiency compared to mean, hours
Res
ilien
ce c
om
par
ed t
o m
ean
, ho
urs
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26
Increase in Transportation Costs
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27
Impact on GDP
Baseline Case (in color)
Explicit Resilience Modeling (Bars)
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28
Impact on GDP and Size of Economy
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Current System
Efficiency• the ability to move quickly when the
network is functioning as designed • cost effectively improved by
increasing capacity on existing and highly utilized right of ways
Resilience• the ability to limit delays from
network component failures• best improved by provide
alternative route capacity when failure does occur
Managing Resilience is Different than Efficiency
Design to Maximize Efficiency
Design to Maximize Resilience
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Resilience Value
After Linkov et al., 2019
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Vision for Systems Resilience
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References
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