the u.s. shrimp marketshrimp.infofish.org/images/presentations/1 the us shrimp market.pdf•imports...

The U.S. Shrimp Market:Trade, Consumption and Perspectives

Darryl E. Jory, Ph.D.AdvisorAquaculture Business Development and SupportFlorida USA

James L. Anderson, Ph.D.Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems and Professor of Food and Resource economics University of Florida, Florida USA

TRADEWhere is it coming from?

U.S. Shrimp Imports• The U.S. depends on imports for well over 90% of its shrimp supply annually.

• The U.S. imports shrimp from over 50 countries around the world.

• The value of imported shrimp in 2018 was over US$ 6.2 billion out of US$ 22.9

billion of imported seafood (27% of total seafood imports).

• Imports in 2018 of 695,723 MT of shrimp - about 4.8% more than in 2017, and

for the 3rd consecutive year established a new tonnage record – 664,201 MT in

2017 ( about 13.6% more than the previous year) and 584,447 MT in 2016.

• India was the top shrimp exporter to the U.S. in 2018 with 247,783 MT, and

became the first country to exceed 247,000 MT (500 million lbs.) of shrimp

exports to the U.S. in a calendar year.

• Following were Indonesia 132,317 MT, Ecuador (75,893 MT), Vietnam (58,383

MT), Thailand (49,686 MT), China (40,814 MT), Mexico (24,884 MT), Argentina

(11,033 MT) and Peru (10,532 MT).

Gorjan Nikolik

Main Shrimp Trade Flows Major Shifts 2012 to 2018

2012 RANK MT 2018 RANK MT

THAILAND TO USA 1 129,455 ECUADOR TO CHINA 1 299,513

INDIA TO USA 2 105,563 INDIA TO USA 2 248,160

ECUADOR TO EU 3 86,245 INDIA TO CHINA 3 179,914

INDONESIA TO USA 4 72,880 INDONESIA TO USA 4 130,042

INDIA TO EU 5 70,495 ECUADOR TO EU 5 103,294

ECUADOR TO CHINA 6 24,322 INDIA TO EU 6 75,361

--- --- --- THAILAND TO USA 7 50,107

Total MT 488,960 1,036,284

TOP 6

2012 RANK MT 2018 RANK MT

THAILAND TO USA 1 129,455 ECUADOR TO CHINA 1 299,513

INDIA TO USA 2 105,563 INDIA TO USA 2 248,160

ECUADOR TO EU 3 86,245 INDIA TO CHINA 3 179,914

INDONESIA TO USA 4 72,880 INDONESIA TO USA 4 130,042

INDIA TO EU 5 70,495 ECUADOR TO EU 5 103,294

ECUADOR TO CHINA 6 24,322 INDIA TO EU 6 75,361

--- --- --- THAILAND TO USA 7 50,107

Total MT 488,960 1,036,284

TOP 6

Main Shrimp Trade Flows Major Shifts 2012 to 2018

Major changes in shrimp trade flows 2012 to 2018

How will shrimp trade flows look like in 5-10-15 years?

Based on US shrimp imports, a clear picture emerges of India substituting Thailand and driving growth

US shrimp imports in volume (left axis) and value (right axis)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

-

200

400

600

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Million USD‘000 tonnes

India Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Ecuador Mexico China Others Value

Source: UN Comtrade, Rabobank, 2019 Gorjan Nikolik

…while China is the main demand driver, emerging as the new largest shrimp importer

Global marine shrimp imports in volume (left axis) and value (right axis)

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Value in Million USD

Millions

tonnes

USA EU China+Vietnam* Japan Rest of the World Total Value

8%

28%

33%

25%

Source: UN Comtrade, Rabobank, 2019Note: *We have used exports to China+Vietnam from World Gorjan Nikolik

From Urner Barry

The U.S. imports over 90% of the shrimp consumed

From Urner Barry

U.S. IMPORTS OF MAIN AQUATIC PRODUCTS (78% OF TOTAL) IN 2018, AND BALANCE OF TRADE

https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/commercial-

fisheries/foreign-trade/applications/annual-trade-

balance-for-product

YEAR DEFICIT

2011 -$11,090,034,797

2012 -$11,072,399,817

2013 -$12,233,035,913

2014 -$14,327,877,349

2015 -$13,063,669,721

2016 -$13,883,673,274

2017 -$15,,680,087,945

2018 -$16,747,599,027

PRODUCT IMPORTS EXPORTS RE-EXPORTS BALANCE OF TRADE

SHRIMP WARM-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 51/60 $100,487,643 $224,277 $43,630 ($100,219,736)

SHRIMP FROZEN OTHER PREPARATIONS $1,008,816,803 $470,295 $661,678 ($1,007,684,830)

SHRIMP COLD-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 26/30 $1,755,595 $251,764 $138,609 ($1,365,222)

SHRIMP WARM-WATER PEELED FRESH $1,690,060 $0 $0 ($1,690,060)

SHRIMP WARM-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 41/50 $174,829,809 $408,132 $61,048 ($174,360,629)

SHRIMP COLD-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 41/50 $1,837,625 $39,821 $34,890 ($1,762,914)

SHRIMP OTHER PREPARATIONS $5,674,574 $4,193,832 $1,459,466 ($21,276)

SHRIMP COLD-WATER SHELL-ON FRESH $2,196,083 $0 $0 ($2,196,083)

SHRIMP COLD-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN < 15 $8,306,325 $5,726,472 $195,201 ($2,384,652)

SHRIMP COLD-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 51/60 $322,365 $68,683 $0 ($253,682)

SHRIMP PRODUCTS PREPARED DINNERS IN ATC $2,825,595 $254,862 $26,800 ($2,543,933)

SHRIMP WARM-WATER PEELED FROZEN $2,712,600,709 $10,022,810 $8,189,358 ($2,694,388,541)

SHRIMP WARM-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 26/30 $276,266,940 $1,217,387 $141,870 ($274,907,683)

SHRIMP WARM-WATER SHELL-ON FROZEN 31/40 $302,518,977 $701,745 $190,475 -$301,626,75

TILAPIA (OREOCHROMIS SPP.) FILLET FROZEN $463,162,756 $1,052,631 $4,352,167 ($457,757,958)

TILAPIA (OREOCHROMIS SPP.) FILLET FRESH $142,992,314 $2,323,786 $13,667,540 ($127,000,988)

TILAPIA (OREOCHROMIS SPP.) FROZEN $54,593,204 $742,333 $261,048 ($53,589,823)

CATFISH (PANGASIUS) FILLET FROZEN $405,227,517 $0 $0 ($405,227,517)

CATFISH (PANGASIUS) FILLET FRESH $23,100 $0 $0 ($23,100)

CATFISH (ICTALURUS) FILLET FROZEN $30,302,661 $0 $0 ($30,302,661)

CATFISH (SILURIFORMES OTHER) FILLET FROZEN $109,436,363 $0 $0 ($109,436,363)

SALMON ATLANTIC FILLET FROZEN $591,695,168 $0 $0 ($591,695,168)

SALMON ATLANTIC FRESH FARMED $1,017,166,035 $59,028,860 $3,298,105 ($954,839,070)

SALMON ATLANTIC FILLET FRESH FARMED $1,774,945,734 $0 $0 ($1,774,945,734)

COBIA, ALL FORMS, TOTAL $6,976,070 $361,340 $98,491 ($6,516,239)

GROUPERS (all sp.), TOTAL $59,312,489 $0 $0 ($59,312,489)

FLATFISHES (all sp.), TOTAL $310,593,786 $189,801,073 $4,133,704 ($116,659,009)

SNAPPERS (all sp.), TOTAL $131,866,305 $0 $0 ($131,866,305)

TUNA (all sp.), TOTAL $1,773,050,695 $51,098,171 $15,206,036 ($1,706,746,488)

SHRIMP, ALL FORMS, TOTAL $6,239,606,673 $113,449,192 $21,975,101 ($6,104,182,380)

TILAPIA, ALL FORMS, TOTAL $698,488,266 $5,724,539 $18,927,909 ($673,835,818)

CATFISHES (incl. Pangasius), ALL FORMS, TOTAL $558,531,021 $4,200,819 $571,964 ($553,758,238)

SALMON, ALL FORMS, TOTAL $3,434,071,546 $64,353,876 $12,641,367 ($3,357,076,303)

TOTALS - 2018 $22,920,950,783 $5,802,393,217 $370,958,539 ($16,747,599,027)

TOTALS - 2017 $21,945,979,556 $5,922,470,081 $343,421,530 ($15,680,087,945)

SHRIMP, ALL FORMS, TOTAL 27.7%

TILAPIA, ALL FORMS, TOTAL 3.0%

CATFISHES (incl. Pangasius),

ALL FORMS, TOTAL 2.5%

SALMON, ALL FORMS, TOTAL 15.2%

TOTAL 48.5%

6.8%

Shrimp imports accounted for 27.7% of the seafood

trade deficit in 2018

Anderson et al

From Urner BarryU.S. imports by type to Sep 2019

From Urner Barry

Anderson et al

CONSUMPTIONWho is consuming what, how, where?

U.S. per capita seafood consumption & compositionSPECIES / PRODUCT

CONSUMPTION (LBS) 1987

SPECIES / PRODUCT

CONSUMPTION (LBS) 2017

DIFF. (LBS)

CHANGE % 1987 TO 2017

% OF TOTAL 2017

Tuna 3.51 Shrimp 4.40 2.11 92.1% 27.5%

Shrimp 2.29 Salmon 2.41 1.97 447.7% 15.1%

Cod 1.68 Canned Tuna 2.10 -1.41 -40.2% 13.1%

Alaska Pollock 0.88 Tilapia 1.08 --- --- 6.8%

Flatfish 0.73 Alaska Pollock 0.78 -0.10 -11.4% 4.9%

Clams 0.66 Pangasius 0.71 --- --- 4.4%

Catfish 0.60 Cod 0.66 -1.02 -60.7% 4.1%

Salmon 0.44 Crabs 0.52 0.19 57.6% 3.3%

Crabs 0.33 Catfish 0.53 -0.07 -11.7% 3.3%

Scallops 0.33 Clams 0.31 -0.35 -53.0% 1.9%

Other 4.76 Other 2.50 -2.26 -702.0% 15.6%Total For All

Species16.21

Total For All Species

16.00 -0.21 -1.3% 100.0%

• Two top-10 species in 1987 are not on 2017 list.• In 1987, only one of top 10 species was aquacultured (3.7% of total consumption).• In 2017, 4 of 5 top species were mostly/exclusively aquacultured (54% of total consumption; 57% adding catfish).• In 1987, top 10 species consumed were 71 percent of total (11.45 of 16.21 lbs).• In 2017, top 10 species consumed were 85% of total (13.50 of 16.00 lbs).

Data from www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/fisheries-united-states-2017

Foodservice is 65% of shrimp by volume

Source: Shrimp Panel, 2019 NFI Global Seafood Market Conference

Shrimp sales within broadline foodservice increased nearly 10 million pounds to 255 million lbs. in 2018

Regional popularity by species in Foodservice


Peeled and deveined is 72% of Foodservice shrimp


72% volume and 67% growth occurs at restaurants with 1-19 locations


Over 1/3 (36%) of all shrimp sold by Foodservice is in the South Atlantic States


Top four shrimp species sold in each census region


Household penetration at retail has grown 9%, while volume has grown 37%


Shrimp retail sales volume

Percent of households buying shrimp at retail


Source: John Sackton, Seafood Datasearch – Aquaexpo Guayaquil Oct. 2019

PERSPECTIVESIncreasing consumption

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/januaryfebruary/us-per-capita-availability-of-red-meat-poultry-and-fish-lowest-since-1983

BEEF: 54.3 LBS. (2017)

CHICKEN: 90.8 LBS. (2017)

SEAFOOD: 16.1 LBS. (2017)

PORK: 50.1 LBS. (2017)

ABOUT 200 LBS (90.7 KG) OF BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY VS.

16 LBS (7.3 KG) OF SEAFOOD

INCREASING DEMAND• Waiting (hoping? wishing?) for the next pandemic is not a sound strategy to

improve prices.

• Convey the right message about shrimp as a wholesome, nutritious food.

• Continue educating the public that shrimp farming is a responsible industry.

• Do not alter the products – make better products.

• Most shrimp consumed in restaurants – must reach more households –education, convenience.

• Penetrate fast-food segment.

• Competition is poultry, beef, pork + coming technologies/cellular aquaculture.

• Unified Marketing Strategy - Shrimp Marketing Council under development (GAA).

• Need spokesperson…”Got Milk?...

• Convince Millenials/younger generations to eat more shrimp - more environmentally and health conscious.

Growing consumer interest for traceable seafood

1. “Consumer push for traceable seafood is growing…diners and foodservice operators equally interested in sustainability…across all age groups but Millennials and younger age groups are more visible or they are asking for it.” US Foods, the U.S.’s second largest foodservice distributor (www.intrafish.com/marketplace/us-foods-

consumer-push-for-traceable-seafood-is-growing/2-1-676646).

2.“The certifications a consumer in the United States is most likely to encounter are the Global Aquaculture Alliance (GAA), which has developed standards called the Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP). There is also the Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC), more established and widespread in Europe.” “If you see any of these abbreviations listed on the label of your frozen shrimp or at your fish market, you can go ahead and buy with confidence. (Look for at least a two-star BAP rating, out of four stars.).” (October 15, 2019, The New York Times).

http://www.intrafish.com/marketplace/us-foods-consumer-push-for-traceable-seafood-is-growing/2-1-676646

The Avocado Model(USDA Marketing Board)

37

Accurate weekly production data Increased per cap consumption

https://www.aquaculturealliance.org/advocate/how-we-can-help-children-reach-for-seafood/

https://www.aquaculturealliance.org/advocate/farmed-seafood-makes-sense/

https://www.aquaculturealliance.org/advocate/farmed-seafood-makes-sense/

SUMMARY

• Shrimp is the most popular seafood item in the U.S. (over 27% of total).

• The U.S. depends on imports for over 90% of its shrimp supply annually.

• A major shrimp market - 695,723 MT imported in 2018 - with significant

consumption expansion potential.

• Organic shrimp: report of a potential 45,000 MT niche market (segment growing

at 7%/yr).

• Potential for indoor RAS systems everywhere in the U.S. – local sourcing is of

much interest to retail buyers - salmon projects leading the way.

• Promote sustainability, responsibility, certification and traceability.

• Promote consumption and increase demand.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENINGDarryl Jory

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