the u.s. national intelligence council's global trends 2015: excerpts, commentaries, and response

7/31/2019 The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, and Response

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2/42

KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =72

Eannkjtirlku

ga a{ r{rauku# ictfa{mf idnlttkdc| ljkviet ga tfk

uaelic uelkjtlut* A{ r{rauk lu ta luk ioawk ufat.tkn #

tietleic eajuldkitlaju ijd rawldk i cajmk.tkn# utitkmle

rkurketlwk* H{dmnkjtu ioa{t dknamirfle ijd jit{ic

kua{ek tkjdu ik oiukd rlnilc| aj ljgankd

kvtiracitlaj ag kvlutljm tkjdu* Lj eajtiut# nij|

h{dmn kj tu io a{t uelkj ek ij d tkefjacam|# keajanle

ma}tf# mcaoiclxitlaj# mawkjijek# ijd tfk jit{k ageajgclet krkukjt i d lutlccitlaj a g wlk}u ag kvrktu ljuldk

ijd a{tuldk tfk [jltkd Utitku Mawkjnkjt* Tfk gank

ik rahketlaju ioa{t jit{ic rfkjankji# ioa{t }flef

}k eij fiwk gilc| flmf eajgldkjek0 tfk cittk ik nak

urke{citlwk okei{uk tfk| ik eajtljmkjt {raj tfk dkelulaju

tfit uaelktlku ijd mawkjnkjtu }lcc ni`k*

Tfk dlwku }k knrfiulxk }lcc fiwk uti|ljm ra}k*

Uank ag tfk tkjdu }lcc rkulut0 atfku }lcc ok ckuu

kjd{ljm ijd ni| efijmk ea{uk awk tfk tlnk gink

}k eajuldk* Tfk niha eajtlo{tlaj ag tfk Jitlajic

Ljtkcclmkjek Ea{jelc &JLE,# iuulutkd o| kvrktu gan tfk

Ljtkcclmkjek Eann{jlt|# fiu okkj ta fijkuu [U

M awkjnkjt ijd j ajmawkjnkjtic urkeliclutu ta ldkjtlg|

dlwku# ta dktknljk }flef aj ku nittk naut# ta flmfclmft

`k| {jektiljtlku# ijd ta ljtkmitk ijic|ulu ag tf kuk tkjdu

ljta i jitlajic uke{lt| eajtkvt* Tfk ku{ct ldkjtlglku luu{ku

ga nak lmaa{u ijic|ulu ijd y{ijtlgleitlaj*

TF K D_LWK_UIJD T_KJDU

Dknamirfleu]acd rar {citlaj lj ?29; }lcc ok =*? olcclaj# {r gan

7*9 olcclaj lj tfk |ki ?222# ijd lj naut ea{jt lku# rkarck}lcc clwk cajmk* J ljkt|.glwk rkekjt ag tfk ljekiuk }lcc

ok lj dkwkcarljm ea{jtlku# jkic| icc lj irldc| kvrijdljm

{oij ikiu* ]fkk racltleic u|utknu ik olttck# tfk

eanoljitlaj ag ra r{citlaj ma}tf ijd {o ijlxitlaj }lcc

gautk ljutiolclt|* Ljekiuljm clgkuriju }lcc fiwk ulmjlgleijtc|

dlwkmkjt lnrietu*

Lj tf k idwijekd keajanlkuijd i ma}ljm j{nok

ag knkmljm n i`kt ea{jt lkudkecljljm oltfitku ijd

imljm }lcc eanoljk ta ljekiuk fkictf eik ijd rkjulaj

eautu }flck kd{eljm tfk kcitlwk ulxk ag tfk }a`ljm

rar{citlaj# utiljljm tfk uaelic eajtiet# ijd ckiwljm

ulmjlgleijt ufat giccu lj tfk ulxk ijd eirielt| ag tf k }a`

gaek*

Lj uank dkwkcarljm ea{j tlku# tfkuk uink tkjdu }lcc

eanoljk ta kvrijd tfk ulxk ag tfk }a`ljm rar{citlaj

ijd kd{ek tfk |a{tf o{cmkljekiuljm tfk ratkj tlic ga

keajanle ma}tf ijd racltleic utiolclt|*

Jit{ic _kua{eku ijd KjwlajnkjtAwkicc gaad rad{etlaj }lcc ok idky{itk ta gkkd

tfk }acdu ma}ljm rar{citlaj# o {t r aa ljgiut{et{k

ijd dlutlo{tlaj # racltleic ljutiolclt|# ijd efaj le rawkt|

}lcc ckid ta nicja{lufnkjt lj ritu ag U{o.Uifiij

Iglei* Tfk ratkjtlic ga ginljk }lcc rkulut lj ea{jtlku

}ltf krkuulwk mawkjnkj t raclelku a ljtkjic eajgcletu*

D kurltk i ;2 rkekjt ljekiuk lj mcaoic kjkm| dknijd#

kjkm| kua{eku }lcc ok u{gglelkjt ta nkkt dknijd0 tfk

citkut kutlnitku u{mmkut tfit 62 rkekjt ag tfk }acduiwilciock alc ijd


3/42

79KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

rahketlaj*

_kmlaju# ea{jtlku# ijd ma{ru gkkcljm ckgt okfljd

}lcc giek dkkrkjljm keajanle utimjitlaj# racltleic

ljutiolclt|# ijd e{ct{ic iclkjitlaj * Tfk| }lcc gautk racltleic#

ktfjle# ldkacamleic# ijd kclmla{u kvtknlun# icajm }ltf

tfk wlackjek tfit agtkj ieeanrijlku lt* Tfk| }lcc gaek

tfk [jltkd Utitku ijd atfk dkwkcarkd ea{jtlku ta

knilj gae{ukd aj acd.}acd eficckjmku }flckeajekjtitljm aj tfk lnrcleitlaju ag jk}.}acd

tkefjacamlku it tf k uink tlnk*

Jitlajic ijd Ljtkjitlajic MawkjijekUtitku }lcc eajtlj{k ta ok tfk danljijt rci|ku aj

tfk }acd utimk# o{t mawkjnkjtu }lcc fiwk ckuu ijd ckuu

eajta c awk gca}u ag ljganitlaj# tkefja cam|# dlukiuku#

nlmijtu# inu# ijd gljijelic tijuietlaju# }fktfk clelt

a lcclelt# ieauu tfkl oadku* Jajutitk ietau ijmljm

gan o{uljkuu glnu ta jaj raglt amijlxitlaju }lcc rci|

ljekiuljmc| cimk acku lj oatf j itlajic ijd ljtkjitlajic

iggilu* Tfk y{iclt| ag mawkjijek# oatf j itlajicc| ijd

ljtkjitlajicc|# }lcc u{outij tlicc| dktknljk fa} }kcc utitku

ijd uaelktlku eark }ltf tfkuk mcaoic gaeku*

Utitku }ltf eanrktkjt mawkjijek# ljec{dljm tfk

[jltkd Utitku# }lcc idirt mawkjnkjt ut{et{ku ta i

dinitleicc| efijmkd mcaoic kjwlajnkjtni`ljm tfkn

okttk iock ta kjmimk }ltf i n ak ljtkeajjketkd }acd*

Tfk kurajulol c l t lku ag ajek uknli{tajana{u

mawkjnkjt imkjelku ljekiuljmc| }lcc ljtkuket okei{uk

ag tfk tijujitlajic jit{k ag jitlajic uke{lt| rlaltlku

ijd okei{uk ag tfk ecki ky{lknkj t ga ljtkdluelrclji|

racle| kurajuku* Ufirljm tfk eanrckv# giut.nawljm}acd ag ?29; }lcc ky{lk kufirljm tidlt lajic

mawkjnkjt ut{et{ku*

Kggketlwk mawkjijek }lcc ljekiuljmc| ok dktknljkd

o| tfk iolclt| ijd imlclt| ta gan ritjkuflru ta kvrcalt

ljekiukd ljganitlaj g ca}u# jk} tkefjacamlku# nlmitlaj#

ijd tfk ljgc{kjek ag jajutitk ietau* Naut o{t jat icc

ea{j tlku tfit u{eekkd }lcc ok krkukjtitlwk dknaeielku*

Utitku }ltf ljkggketlwk ijd ljeanrktkjt mawkjijek

jat ajc| }lcc gilc ta okjkglt gan mcaoiclxitlaj# o{t lj

uank ljutijeku }lcc uri}j eajgcletu it fa nk ijd ioaid#

kju{ljm ij kwkj }ldk mir okt}kkj kmlajic }ljjku

ijd cauku tfij kvlutu tadi|*Mcaoiclxitlaj }lcc ljekiuk tfk tijurikje| ag

mawkjnkjt dkelulaj.ni`ljm# eanr cleitljm tfk iolclt| ag

i{tfaltilij kmlnku ta niljtilj eajtac# o{t icua

eanrcleitljm tfk tidltlajic dkclokitlwk raekuuku ag

dknaeielku* Ljekiuljm nlmitlaj }lcc ekitk ljgc{kjtlic

dliuraiu# iggketljm raclelku# racltleu ijd kwkj jitlajic

ldkjtlt| lj nij| ea{jtlku* M caoiclxitlaj icua }lcc ekitk

ljekiuljm dkn ijdu ga ljtkjitlajic eaarkitlaj aj

Mcaoic Rar{cit laj8 9


4/42

KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =7?

Eannkjtirlku

tijujitlajic luu{ku# o{t t fk kurajuk ag oa tf utitku ijd

ljtkjitlajic amijlxitlaju }lcc gicc ufat lj ?29;*

G{t{k Eajgclet* * *Tfk lu` ag }i inajm dkwkcarkd ea{jtlku }lcc

ok ca}* Tfk ljtkjitlajic eann{jlt| }lcc eajtlj{k#

fa}kwk# ta giek eajgcletu ia{jd tfk }acd# ijmljm gan

kcitlwkc| gky{kjt unicc.ueick ljtkjic {rfkiwicu ta ckuugky{kjt kmlajic ljtkutitk }iu* Tfk ratkjtlic ga eajgclet

}lcc iluk gan lwiclku lj Iuli# ijmljm gan Ljdli.

Ri`lutij ta Ef lji.Til}ij# iu }kcc iu inajm tfk ijtimaj lutu

lj tfk Nlddck Kiut* Tfkl ratkjtlic cktficlt| }lcc ma}#

dlwkj o| tfk iwilciolclt| ag ]ND# cajmk.ijmk nluulck

dkclwk| u|utknu ijd atfk tkefjacamlku*

Ljtkjic eajgcletu utknnljm gan kclmla{u# ktfjle#

keajanle a racltleic dlur{tku }lcc knilj it e{kjt ckwkcu

a kwkj ljekiuk lj j{nok* Tfk [jltkd Jitlaju ijd

kmlajic amijlxitlaju }lcc ok eicckd {raj ta n ijimk u{ef

eajgcletu okei{uk niha utitkuutkuukd o| dankutleeajekju# rkeklwkd lu` ag gilc{k# cie` ag racltleic }lcc#

a tlmft kua{eku}lcc nljlnlxk tfkl dlket ljwacwknkjt*

_ack ag tfk [jltkd UtitkuTfk [ jltkd Utitku }lcc eajtlj{k ta ok i n iha ga ek

lj tfk }acd eann{jlt|* [*U* mcaoic keajanle#

tkefjacamleic# nlclti|# ijd dlrcanitle ljgc{kjek }lcc ok

{jriicckckd inajm jitlaju iu }kcc iu kmlajic ijd

ljtkjitlajic amijlxitlaju lj ?29;* Tflu ra}k j at ajc|

}lcc kju{k Inkleiu rkknljkjek# o{t icua }lcc eiut tfk

[jltkd Utitku iu i `k| dlwk ag tfk ljtkjitlajic u|utkn*

Dlrcanie| }lcc ok nak eanrcleitkd* ]iufljmtaj}lcc fiwk mkitk dlggle{ct| fijkuuljm ltu ra }k ta ieflkwk

urkelgle gaklmj racle| maicu8 tfk [*U* Mawkjnkjt }lcc

kvkeluk i unicck ijd ckuu ra}kg{c rit ag tfk awkicc

keajanle ijd e{ct{ic ljgc{kjek ag tfk [jltkd Utitku

ioaid* * * *

@K\ [JEK_TILJTLKU8 TKEFJACAM\ ]LCC

ICTK_ A[TEANKU

Kvinljljm tfk ljtkietlaj ag tfkuk dlwku ijd tkjd u

raljtu ta uank niha {jektiljtlku tfit }lcc ajc| okecilglkd iu kwkjtu aee{ ijd ckidku ni`k racle| dkelulaju

tfit eijjat ok gakukkj tadi|* ]k eltk klmft tijujitlajic

ijd kmlajic luu{ku ga }flef tfk g{t{k# ieeadljm ta

a{ tkjdu ijic|ulu# lu taa ta{mf ta eicc }ltf ij| eajgldkjek

a rkelulaj*

Uelkjek ijd Tkefjacam|* * *Idwijeku lj uelkjek ijd t kefja cam| }lcc mkjkitk

dinitle oki`tfa{mfu lj imle{ct{k ijd fkictf ijd lj

ckir.gam irrcleitlaju# u{ef iu {j lwkuic }lkckuu ekcc{ci

eann{jleitlaju# }flef ickid| ik jkt}a`ljm

dkwkcarljm ea{jtlku tfit jkwk fid cijd.cljku* ]fit }k

da jat `ja} ioa{t tfk U'T kwac{tlaj# fa}kwk# lu

utimmkljm* ]k da jat `ja} ta }fit kvtkjt tkefjacam|

}lcc okjkglt# a g{tfk dluidwijtimk# dluiggketkd jitlajic

rar{citlaju# iclkjitkd ktfjle ijd kclmla{u ma{ru# a tfkckuu dkwkcarkd ea{jtlku* ]k da ja t `ja} ta }fit dkmkk

citkic a uldk.}luk tkefjacam| }lcc ljekiuk tfk tfkit

gan ca} tkefjacam| ea{jtlku ijd ma{r u* Ajk ektiljt|

lu tfit r amkuulaj }lcc jat ok cljki* * * *

Iu|nnktle ]igikLT.dlwkj mcaoiclxitlaj }lcc ulmjlgleijtc| ljekiuk

ljtkietlaj inajm tkalutu# jieatiggle`ku# }kiraju

ra clgkitau# ijd amijlxkd elnljicu# }fa lj i jkt}a`kd

}acd }lcc fiwk mkitk ieekuu ta ljganitlaj# ta

tkefjacam|# ta gljijek# ta uarflutleitkd dkekrtlaj.ijd.

dkjlic tkefjly{ku ijd ta kief atfk* U{ef iu|nnktle

irraiefku}fktfk {jdkti`kj o| utitku a jajutitk

ietau}lcc okeank tf k dan ljijt efiietklutle ag naut

tfkitu ta tfk [*U* fankcijd*

Tfk Mcaoic Keajan|Ictfa{mf tfk a{tcaa` ga tfk mcaoic keajan| irrkiu

utajm# ieflkwljm oaid ijd u{utiljkd flmf ckwkcu ag

mcaoic ma}tf }lcc ok eajtljmkjt aj iwaldljm ukwkic

ratkjtlic oi`ku ta ma}tf * Tfkuk ljec{dk8

T fk [*U * keajan | u{ggku i u{utiljkd da}jt{j 0 K {ark ijd Hirij gilc ta nij imk tfkl dknamirfle

eficckjmku0

E flji ijd! a Ljdli gilc ta u{utilj flmf ma}tf0

K nkmljm ni` kt ea{jtlku gilc ta kgan tfkl gljijelic

ljutlt{tlaju0

M caoic kjkm| u{rrclku u{ggk i niha dlu{rtlaj*

Tfk Nlddck KiutMcaoic tkjdu gan dknamirf| ijd jit{ic

kua{eku ta mcaoiclxitlaj ijd mawkjijek irrki

mkjkicc| jkmitlwk ga tfk Nlddck Kiut* * * Cljki tkjdijic|ulu ufa}u clttck raultlwk efijmk lj tfk kmlaj#

iluljm tfk raurketu ga ljekiukd dknamirfle

rkuu{ku# uaelic {jkut# kclmla{u ijd ldkacamleic

kvtknlun# ijd tkalun dlketkd oatf it tfk kmlnku

ijd it tf kl ]kutkj u{rr atku* * *

EfljiKutlnitku ag dkwkcarnkjtu lj Eflji awk tfk jkvt


5/42


[jltkd Utitku> jitlajic uke{lt| raclelku ijd

raminu d{ljm tfk jkvt 9; |kiu }lcc fiwk gi

nak kggket aj ljtkjitlajic kcitlajuflru ijd

uke{lt| eajdltlaju tfa{mfa{t tfk mcaoic eann{jlt| lj

tfk |ki ?29; tfij }lcc ij| gakukkiock tkefjacamleic

dkwkcarn kjtu d{ljm tfk uink rklad* Tflu utitknkjt lu

t{k ga t}a kiuaju*

Glut# iu tfk }acd>u ckidljm keajanle ra}k ijd

ajc| nlclti| u{rkra}k# tfk [jltkd Utitku ufirku tfk

uke{lt| raclelku ijd raminu ag kwk| dkwkcarkd j itlaj

lj tfk }acd* Inklei lu tfk ajc| jitlaj ta dlwldk tfk

kjtlk mcaok ljta nlclti| xajku ijd niljtilj jkic|?;2#222 flmfc| inkd# eanoit kid| gaeku aj gaklmj

ualc ijd ukiu {jdk tfk i{tfalt| ag [*U* kmlajic

eannijdku. lj.eflkg * Ja jit laj eij lmjak tfk

lnnkdlitk rkukjek ijd r a}k ag tfk [j ltkd Utitku*

Uank ni| ok kiuu{kd o| tflu ra}k# }flck atfku gkkc

tfkitkjkd* O{t icc ik u{ohket ta tfk fkmknaj le ljgc{kjek

ag tfk [*U* nlclti| rkukjek*

Ukeajd# tfk nlclti|.ljd{utlic eanrckv ioa{ t }flef

Rkuldkjt D}lmft Klukjfa}k }ijkd {u# iokttkd o|

Eajmkuulajic fi}`u# fiu i eaccketlwk ljtkkut lj ran atljm

i f{mk ijd ma}ljm nlclti| o{dmkt }flef eij ok h{utlglkdajc| o| i eajtlj{itlaj ag [*U* u{rkra}k utit{u ia{jd

tfk mcaok*

Tfkuk t}a gietau ealjeldk ta dlwk ficg a g icc [*U*

kukief ijd dkwkcarn kjt &_'D, ljwkutnkjt ljta n lclti|

raminu* Lj ?229 icajk# nlclti| _'D tatickd nak

tfij $4? olc c laj &O{dmkt ag tfk [jltkd Utitku

Mawkjnkjt # ?229# rimk


6/42


Eannkjtirlku

lu ja} eannlttkd ta uriek iu i jk} oittck xajk*

Tf k kggket a g tflu }lcc ok ta ljtkj ulg| [* U* nlclti|

eajgaj titlaj ag tfk mcaoic eann {jlt| o| gci{jtljm a{

u{rkra}k utit{u*

Tflu kggat lu i ritle{cic| ulmjlgleijt kvinrck ag

tfk a rra t{jlt| eautu ag kvekuulwk ljwkutnkjt lj d{ola{u

nlclti| wkjt{ku* Lt icua kgcketu tfk giet tfit }acd}ldk

kvrkjdlt{ku aj ininkjtu ijd nlclti| gaeku utlcc kvekkd$622 olcclaj ijj{icc|* M T ? 2 9 ; ea{cd ijd ufa{cd fiwk

ldkjtlglkd tfk ratkjtlic okjkgltu ag kd{eljm nlclti|

urkjdljm lj adk ta gkk g{jdu ta dkic }ltf tfk rao cknu

lt rahketu*

G{tfknak# uljek ja nlclti| eficckjmk maku

{jij u}kkd ljdkgljltkc|# tfk J ND ljltlitlwk }lcc kju{k i

urlic ag ea{jtk.kggatu# }ltf ijtl.uitkccltk u|utknu ijd

Lj r{oclufljm M T ? 2 9 ; # flmf.ij`ljm nknoku ag

tfk [*U* ljtkcclmkjek eann{jlt| fiwk kclkd aj a{tuldk

walekujajmawkjnkjtic kvrktluk# tfk| eicc lt

ta di} ittkjtlaj ta tfauk mcaoic tkjdu ijd kmlajic

kcitlaju tfit ufa{cd ufirk tfk [*U* mawkjn kjtu rlaltlku*

L }luf tfkn u{eekuu* Tfkuk ik eajg{uljm# a{t.ag.gae{u

tlnku ga tfk n i`ku ag [*U* gaklmj ra cle|* Nak tfij i

dkeidk ig tk tfk oki`{r ag tfk Uawlk t [jlaj#

ljtkjitlajic kcitlaju tfkalutu fiwk |kt ta gljd i okttk

dkuelrtlaj ga tf k ki gacca}ljm tfk Eacd ]i tfij tfkraut.Eacd ]i ki &ijd L fiwk ja maad u{mmkutlaju#

kltfk,*

M T ? 2 9 ; e{tu tfa{mf uank ag tfk eajg{ulaj* Ltu

r{ocleitlaj lu kwldkjek tfit ukjla [*U* ljtkcclmkjek ijic|utu

fiwk ieekrtkd nij| ag tfk eajec{ulaju ag kekjt kukief

ljta tf k {jdk c|ljm ei{uku ag ljti.utitk eaj gclet ijd utitk

gilc{kkukief gae{ukd aj dknamirfle efijmk#

rkeklwkd ueieltlku lj eltleic jit{ic kua{eku# ijd tfk

utitk.uijetlajkd ljutlt{tlaju tfit gautk uaelic# keajanle#

MCAOIC T_KJDU?29;I DKNAM_IRFLE RK_URKETLWK

O| _lefid R* Eljeatti

_ lefid R* E ljeatti lu i ukjla kukief iuuaelitk it Rar{citlaj I etlaj Lj tkjitlajic &RI L, }ltf kukief kv rklkjek lj

J atf I nklei# I uli ijd I glei* Gan 9


7/42

7;KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

keajanleicc| gimlck tfij tfk |a{ tf o{ cmk tfk flmf

rar atlaj ag |a{tfu tfit lu efiietklutle ag tfk }acdu

kniljljm flmf.gkt lclt| uaelktlku* Ga kvinrck# lju{mkje|

nawknkjtu fiwk okkj kvtknkc| u{eekuug{c ke{ltljm

}ilau lj uaelktlku &u{ef iu tfauk lj tfk Nlddck Kiut

ijd lj ]kut Iglei, tfit ik i}iuf lj |a{j m# {jknr ca|kd#

ijd dlueajtkjtkd nicku &Eacclk ' Fakggck# 9


8/42


Eannkjtirlku

ginlc| rcijjljm raminu &9


9/42

7=KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

Rielgle Rar{cit laj _ kukief _ krat 5 * F aja c{c{8 K iut.]kut

Ekjtk*

Olduicc# Jije|0 O{ju# Oioii0 ' Uioat# _lefid F * &9


10/42


Eannkjtirlku

Gran JLE Mcaoic Trkjdu ?29;

ijd n ij| eajtilj ktfjle rar{citlaju }ltf ea.ktfjleu lj

jklmfoaljm utitku* O| ?29;# ktfjle fktkamkjklt| }lcc

ljekiuk lj icnaut icc utitku# iu i ku{ct ag ljtkjitlajic

nlmitlaj ijd dlwkmkjt o ltfitku ag nlmijt ijd jitlwk

rar {citlaju &rimk 4?,* M T ?29;u ijic|ulu ajc| itlglku

uank ag tfk kekjt keajanle nadkc ljm ag tfk

kcitlajuflr okt}kkj ktfjlelt| ijd eajgclet# }flef

niljtilju tfit lt lu ckuu cl`kc| ljtkjic eajgcletu }lcc ljekiuklj tfk g{t{k uackc| aj tfk oiulu ag ktfjle dlggkkjeku &ukk

Okdkc ' Nicajk# ?222,*

Tfk krat icua {jdkueaku tfk }a` tfit ]acd

Oij` keajanlut Ri{c Eacclk fiu dajk eficckjmljm tfk

eajwkjtlajic }ludan tfit ktfjle ijd kclmla{u dlwkult|

urkcc ta{o ck* Ljdkkd# iu Eacclk ja tku# lt lu }fkj i uaelkt|

lu eanraukd ag ajc| t}a ktfjle ma{ru tfit eajgclet lu it

ltu flmfkut* Tfk nak ktfjleicc| dlwkuk i utitk# tfk ckuu

cl`kc| lt lu ta kvrk lkjek i elwlc }i* Ijd kclmla{u dlwkult|

lu kwkj nak e{elic ta jitlajic uke{lt|8 tfk mkitk tfk

dkmkk ag kclmla{u dlwkult| lj i uaelkt|# tfk uigk lt lu

&Eacclk# 9


11/42

7


12/42

KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K ==2

Eannkjtirlku

MT ? 2 9 ; rawldku i eanrkfkjulwk ijd eikg{cc|

eanrlckd uekjila ga a{ eannaj g{t{k ijd

}lcc farkg{cc| kief i oaid ljtkjitlajic

i{dlkjek*

O{t tfk kra tu awkicc iuu{nrtlaj tf it tfk [jltkd

Utitku }lcc knilj tfk r krajdkijt ra }k lj tfk dkeidkuifkid ea{cd }kcc ok y{kutlajkd* Ga kvinrck# }lcc tadi|u

mcaoic ra}k ut{et{ku knilj iu tfk| ik ajek i nihalt|

ag tfk Efljkuk rar{citlaj f iu ieekuu ta tfk Ljtkjkt ijd

Eflji g{tfk ljekiuku ltu }kictf ijd kvrijdu ltu nlclti|

ljgc{kjek1 Ijd nlmft jat tfk eajtlj{a{uc| ljekiuljm

}acd}ldk rawkt| mir iu }kcc iu tfk dlmltic dlwldk ei{uk

it ckiut i ritlic eacciruk ag a{ rkukjt tijujitlajic

u|utknu# ckidljm ta tfk ekitlaj ag g{jdinkjticc| jk}

nadkcu ag mcaoic mawkjijek1

Atfk eanrcleitljm gietau ioa{jd* Lj tfk jki

g{t{k# dkwkcarljm jitlaju ni| nak immkuulwkc| y{kutlaj

tfk tidltlajic dkwkcarnkjt nadkc iu ranatkd o| tfkOkttaj ]aadu Ljut l t{t laju# tfk ]TA# ijd atfk

ljtkjitlajic amijlxitlajuamijlxitlaju tfit ik ickid|

rkeklwkd o| uank ta ok ietljm {jdk i kmlnk danljitkd

o| ljd{utliclxkd ea{jtlku* Ijd }fit efijmku lj tfk

oicijek ag keajanle ijd racltleic ra}k }lcc }k ukk

ajek i }kcc.kd{eitkd ijd ut lwljm nlddck eciuu rar{citlaj

lj Ljdli &}flef ickid| tadi| a{tj{noku tfk tatic

rar{citlaj ag tfk K{arkij [jlaj, r{tu ltu g{cc }klmft

aj tfk mcaoic ueick1 U{ef lnratijt y{kutlaju ik ajc|

ritc| eawkkd lj M T ? 2 9; * Imilj# tfk eajec{ulaju tfk

i{tfau ag tfk JLE krat ti`k ik finrkkd ta i cimk

kvtkjt o| okljm oiukd aj tfk iuu{nrt laj tfit tfk [j ltkd

Utitku }lcc eajtlj{k ta ok tfk niha gaek lj tfk }acd

eann{jlt|*

O| ?29;# tfk mcaoiclxitlaj oie`ciuf ni| }kcc fiwk

okeank i mcaoic rfkja nkjaj lj a{ uaelkt|ukla{uc|

y{kutlajljm tfk tidltlajic [*U* fkmknaj| ijd ku{ctljm

lj i utajm dkulk ga jk} kmlajic ganu ag eaarkitlaj

icajm tf k rljelrck ag u{ouldlilt|* I kt{j ta g{jetlajic

kmlajiclun &iu a{tcljkd lj Ictkjitlwk Uekjila 5 ag tfk

TFK [UI LJIJ LJTK_DKRKJDKJT ]A_CD8 JK] CKIDK_UFLR

TF_A[MF LJTK_JITLAJIC EAARK_ITLAJ1

O| Nlefikc Fijuuck ijd Ija ]kljnijj

N lefikc F ijuuck facdu i Rf *D * lj fluta| gan tfk [ jlwkult| ag _ kmkjuo{m# M knij |* F k lu K v ke{t lwk D lketa ag

tfk Okccimla Ga{n ga U {utiljiock D kwkcarnkjt# i ma{r ag ljtkjitlajic dajau gan K {ark# Hirij# ij d tfk [ jltkdU titku tfi t lu dkdleitkd ta idwijeljm tfk maicu ag u{utiljiock dkwkcarnkjt*

I j a ] kljnijj facdu i Rf *D * lj fluta| ijd racltleic uelkjek g an tfk M kam.I {m{ut.[ jlwkult|# M ttljmkj* U ljek

9<


13/42

=9KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

Caa`ljm ga tfk Kjwlajnkjtic Efijmk ijd Uke{lt| Rahket aj tfk Ljtkjkt1

Eajtiet {u o| k.nilc it8

Rahket Dlketa# Mkaggk| Diokcà . mdiokcàBkacu*ean

Rahket Iuuaelitk# Hkjjlgk @iexa . ìexahB}}le*ul*kd{

Kdlta# _aokt Ciciux . ciciuxcB}}le*ul*kd{

Rahket Iuulutijt# Ilkc Njdkx . nkjdkxB}}le*ul*kd{Rahket Iuuaelitk# Jleack Jacij . jacijj|B}}le*ul*kd{

Rad{etlaj Kdlta# _lefid Tfaniu . tfaniuB}}le*ul*kd{

Ukjla Rahket Iuuaelitk# Hkjjlgk T{jk . efljikjwBkacu*ean

Mkjkic Nilcoav . keur}}leB}}le*ul*kd{

Rckiuk wlult a{ ]ko ultk it fttr8!!keur*ul*kd{

}acdu utajmkut keajan| }lcc lj tfk g{t{k ok kwkj

nak ljecljkd ta nkkt ltu ljtkjitlajic aoclmitlajuok lt

LJTK_JITLAJIC KJWL_AJNKJTIC MAWK_JIJEK8 JK] _ACKUGA_

MAWK_JNKJTUIJD JAJMAWK_JNKJTIC A_MIJLXITLAJU

O| Clcliji Fluiu

C lcliji F luiu lu rkuldkjt ag G {jdielj K eacmlei [ jlwkuic &G K [ ,# i jajmawkjnkjtic kjwlajn kjtic amijlx itlaj

oiukd lj O {kjau I lku* Ufk fiu }a kd ga GK [ uljek 9<


14/42

KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K ==?

Eannkjtirlku

jitlajic keajanlku ik i rlalt|,# naut mawkjnkjt

kjwlajnkjtic imkjelku da jat a eijjat iet nak

utajmc|* Mawkjnkjtu rlaltlku ik clnltkd#

kurkelicc| lj tfk dkwkcarljm }acd# ta dkgkjdljm tfk

ljtkkut ag tfkl a}j keajanle ult{itlaju# ag tfkl

cioa gaeku# ijd ag tfkl a}j jit{ic kua{eku*

J ajmawkj nkjti c A mijlx it laju8 JMAu dkgljk i

cimk ijd dlwkuk j{nok ag kjtltlku# ijmljm ganuacldc|.ut{et{kd ijd amijlxkd ljtkjitlajic ma{ru

ta unicck o{t kggketlwk ukcg.gljijekd ma{ru# kukief

ieidknle kjtltlku# mawkjnkjt jaj .mawkjnkjtic

amijlxitlaju# ijd uljmck.rkuaj amijlxitlaju* Tfk

kggketlwkjkuu ag tfk kjwlajnkjtic JM A eann{jlt|

lu oiukd aj tfk gacca}ljm gietau8 kvrkt luk#

`ja}ckdmk# kukief# ecauk eajtiet }ltf rkarck it

tfk caeic ckwkc# ijd eirielt| ta jkt}a` }ltf atfk

amijlxitlaju* Lj n aut eiuku# JM A u fiwk dkwkcarkd

i nak uacld eirielt| tfij mawkjnkjtu t a d kic }ltf

&ga kvinrck, mcaoic kjwlajnkjtic eajwkjtlaju# iu

tfkuk ma{ru fiwk okkj gacca}ljm {r tfk ljtkjitlajic

jkmat litlaju uljek tfkl ljekrt laj*

Rlwitk Uketa8 T fk ga .r a g l t ean rajkj t

krkukjtu tfk nata ag naut keajanlku lj oatf

tfk dkwkcarkd ijd dkwkcarljm }acd* Eanrclijek

}ltf kjwlajn kjtic utijdidu lu rkeklwkd jat ta o k

ij artlaj ga nij| dkwkcarljm.}acd eanrijlku#

}flef gki cauljm tfkl eanr ktltlwkjkuu*

Jk} _acku ga Kggketlwk Mcaoic

Kjwlajnkjtic Mawkjijek

[jtlc tfkk lu ij fajkut# arkj# ijd g{ltg{c dlicam{kokt}kkj tfkuk ietau# naut kggatu ta}idu kggketlwk

mcaoic kjwlajnkjtic mawkjijek ik gitkd ta gilc* Tflu

tkjdkje| }lcc ok }aukjkd o| tfk y{le` riek ag

mcaoiclxitlaj*

O| ?29;# tfk jk} acku ga kggketlwk mcaoic

kjwlajnkjtic mawkjijek }lcc fiwk ukwkic ky{lknkjtu8

M awkjn kjtu }lcc fiwk ta eajgaj t dknijdu gan

J M A u ijd nak amijlxkd ijd ljgankd ljdlwld{icu

ga mkitk ritlelritlaj ijd tfk lmft ta clwk {jdk

okttk eajdlt laju* Fa}kwk# tfk nihal t| ag

mawkjnkjtu }lcc eajtlj{k ta kulut kjmimljm }ltf

jajmawkjnkjti c ie tau * Uank mawkjnkjtu

&kurkelicc| lj dkwkcarljm ea{jtlku, }lcc fiwk ta

awkeank ektilj nlurkekrtlaju ijd rkh{dleku

kmidljm dlicam{k ijd kjmimknkjt }ltf elwlc uaelkt|*

Uank ag tfkuk nlurkekrtlaju ijd r kh{dleku ljec{dk

&i, tfk ldki ag JMAu fiwljm nak gljijelic

kua{eku tfij mawkjnkjtu# a &o, tfit mawkjnkjtu

ik {jly{k ua{eku ag kjwlajn kjtic ja}ckdmk ijd

ietlaju* Tfkuk ik ri tle{cic| ecki lj tfk mawkjn kjt.

JMA kcitlajuflr lj tfk dkwkcarljm }acd*

M awkjn kjtu }lcc icua kiclxk tfit jateanrc|ljm }ltf

mcaoic kjwlajnkjtic eannltnkjtu }lcc oljm niha

jkmitlwk eajuky{kjeku it tfk jitlajic ckwkc* Lj tfk

iki ag ljtkjitlajic tidk# uank ag tfk eajuky{kjeku

ag tflu jajeanrclijek ik ickid| wlulock# ijd lj i

mcaoiclxkd }acd ik dkwiutitljm ga tfk kjwlajnkjt *Lj Ljdajkuli ijd Nici|uli# ta eltk h{ut ajk kvinrck#

tfk rlek ga kjtkljm tfk mcaoic ni`kt fiu okkj

irld dkgakutitlaj*

T fk rlwi tk uketau eannltnkjt ta kjwlajnkjtic

mawkjijek }lcc dkrkjd aj tfk dknijdu tfit

mawkjnkjtu ijd elwlc uaelkt| rciek aj lt iu }kcc iu

ltu eanrclijek }ltf tidk imkknkjtu* Ajk ag tfk

`k| y{kutlaju# tfkj# lu lg eanrijlku ik kid| ta

eajwkt tfkl rad{etlaj raekuuku ta n{ef eckijk

ajku*

J M A u ea{cd okeank tfk niha dlwljm gaek

ag tflu jk} ky{itlaj* Ga tfit# JMAu }lcc fiwk ta

amijlxk ijd itle{citk tfkl ra.kjwlajnkjt

nkuuimku okttk# ijd tfk icclijeku inajm J atfkj

ijd Ua{tfkj JMA jkt}a`u }lcc fiwk ta ljekiuk

lj j{nok ijd utkjmtf* Utitkmle icclijeku }ltf tfk

nkdli }lcc ok e{elic* Knr a}knkjt a g rkarck

tfa{mf ljganitlaj }lcc ektiljc| eficckjmk tfk

i{tfalt| ag naut mawkjn kjtu# iu i nak.ljga nkd

ijd okttk.eaadljitkd elwlc uaelkt| }lcc dknijd n ak

gan oatf mawkjnkjtu ijd ga.raglt eanrijlku*

Tfk eltleic raljt ga efijmljm tfkuk ljtkkcitlajuflru }lccok ni`kd o| tfk ]acd U{nnlt aj U{utiljiock

Dkwkcarnkjt &tfk Kitf U{nnlt LL,# ta ok fkcd lj

Hafijjkuo{m# Ua{tf Iglei lj Ukrtknok ?22?* Tflu

U{nnlt }lcc kwlk} tfk tkj.|ki rklad gan tfk [jltkd

J itlaju Eajgkkjek aj K jwlajnkjt ijd D kwkcarnkjt

fkcd lj _la dk Hijkla# Oixlc lj 9


15/42

=5KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

Gan i jitlajic uke{lt| rkurketlwk# M T ? 2 9 ;

ldkjtlglku ukwkj mcaoic dlwku eajuldkkd `k| lj

dkgljljm tfk ljtkjitlajic uke{lt| kjwlajnkjt lj

tfk eanljm |kiu* Lt }iu wk| kjea{imljm ta ukk tfit ajk

ag tfk mcaoic dlwku ldkjtlglkd lu jit{ic kua{eku ijd

kjwlajnkjt* Fa}kwk# mlwkj tfk {jly{k arrat{jlt|

ta flmfclmft tfk kcitlajuf lr okt}kkj tfk kjwlajn kjt ijd

uke{lt|# tflu uketlaj a g tfk krat gilckd ta dkwkcar tflu

clj`imk lj tfk gacca}ljm tfkk iurketu8

Ioukjek ag eltkli {ukd ga ukcketljm tfk urkelgle

kjwlajnkjt luu{ku#

Ljidky{itk ijic|ulu rkukjtkd ga tfk eajec{ulaju

kiefkd# ijd

Dluuaelitlaj ag tfk ljtkdkrkjdkje| ag tfk

kjwlajnkjtic luu{ku dlue{uukd*

D {k ta uriek eajutiljtu# tflu eannkjti| eij ajc|

olkgc| iddkuu kief ag tf kuk tfkk iurketu ijd rawldk i

u{mmkutkd ea{uk ag ietlaj ga g{t{k JLE }a` lj tflu

iki*

Uank Ocljd UratuGlut# }ltf kurket ta tfk ioukjek ag ukcketlaj eltkli#

lt lu jat aowla{u }f| M T ? 2 9; rlnilc| gae{ukd aj8 &i,

gaad &milj rad{etlaj ajc|,0 &o, kjkm| &gauulc g{kc

iwilciolclt|,0 ijd &e, }itk# lj clmft a g tf k awk}fkcnljm

dkecljk ag tf k mcaoic kjwlajn kjt ijd ltu ratkjt lic lnriet

aj f {nij clwkclfaadu ijd uke{lt|* I j{nok ag kra tu

luu{kd lj ?222 ijd ?229 fiwk riljtkd i wk| dlggkkjt

rlet{k ag tfk g{t{k kjwlajnkjt tfij M T ? 2 9; # }flef

utitku tfit tfk r kuu{ku aj tfk kjwlajn kjt iu i ku{ct

ag keajanle ma}tf }lcc dkekiuk iu i ku{ct ag ckuu

kjkm|. ljtkju lwk keajanle dkwkcarnkjt ijd

tkefj acamleic idwijeku &rimk 59,* O{t lj eajt iut ta tf lu

eajec{ulaj# tfk e{kjt mcaoic rittkju ag rad{etlaj#

eaju{nr tlaj# eclnitk efijmk# ijd imle{ct{ic kvrijulaj

iluk ukla{u eajekju ioa{t tfk rkukjt ijd g{t{k

eirielt| ag tfk K itfu jit{ic kua{ek oiuk ta u{utilj i

ma}ljm rar{citlaj* Ga kvinrck# tfk ]acd ]lcdclgk

G{jdu C lwlj m Rcijkt _ krat &?222, fiu kutlnitkd tfit tfk

Kitfu keau|utknu ijd kjk}iock jit{ic kua{eku fiwk

JIT[_IC _KUA[_EKUIJD KJWL_AJNKJT8 OCLJD URATULJMT ?29;

O| Ckuclk Hafjutaj

C kuclk Hafjutaj lu ij kjwlajn kjtic racle| idwlua ga tfk [ *U * I mkje| ga Lj tkjitlajic D kwkcarnkjtu &[ U I LD ,

O {ki{ ag Racle| ijd Ramin E aadljit laj* T fk arljlaju kv rkuukd fkklj ik uackc| tfauk ag tfk i{tfa ijd da jat

krkukjt t fk wlk}u# raultlaju a raclelku ag [ U I LD a tfk [ *U * mawkjn kjt*

dkecljkd 55 r kekjt awk tfk riut 52 |kiu# }flck dknijdu

aj tfkuk keau|utknu fiwk ljekiukd o| ;2 rkekjt* Tfk

eajec{ulaju kiefkd o| M T ? 2 9 ; irrki ta dkrkjd

fkiwlc| aj tkefjacamleic idwijekuo{t tfk i{tfau da

jat ie`ja}ckdmk tfit# kwkj }ltf u{ef idwijeku# nij|

g{jetlaju ijd ukwleku rawldkd o| keau|utknu eijjat

ok u{outlt{tkd }ltf tkefjacamleic glvku*

Tf k M T ? 2 9 ; tkitnkjt ag jit{ic kua{eku ijd

kjwlajnkjt icua daku jat rawldk ltu kidku }ltf

kja{mf ljgan itlaj ta kwic{itk tfk wicldlt| a tfk raekuu

o| }flef ltu eajec{ulaju }kk aotiljkd* Ga kvinrck#

tfk uketlaj aj gaad utitku tfit }acd gaad milj

rad{etlaj ijd utae`u }lcc ok idky{itk ta nkkt tf k jkkdu

ag i ma}ljm }acd rar{citlaj &rimk ?7,* Tflu

eajec{ulaj lu rkukjtkd }ltfa{t kgkkjek ta tfk eltleic

luu{ku gieljm imle{ct{k# u{ef iu &i, ualc dkmiditlaj# }flef

lu i eajekj ga iu n{ef iu 7; rkekjt a g tfk }acdu

imle{ct{ic cijd &]acd _kua{eku# ?222# rimk 7?, a &o,

tfit tf k gaad u{rrc| ga 462 nlcclaj rkarck lu e{kjtc|

okljm rad{ekd }ltf tfk {ju{utiljiock {uk ag }itk

&Oa}j# ?222,* Ijatfk kekjt ut{d| fiu flmfclmftkd tfk

lnriet ag kvrijdljm imle{ct{ic rad{etlaj ta nkkt}acd dknijdu iu i niha dlwk ag mcaoic kjwlajnkjtic

efijmk* Ltu i{tfau im{k tfit u{ef ij kvrijulaj }a{cd

ok ieeanrijlkd o| {jrkekdkjtkd k{tarfleitlaj ag

tkkut lic # gkuf}itk# ijd jki.ufak niljk

keau|utknuu{ouky{kjt c| eanranlu ljm tfkl

rad{etlwlt|# eajt lo{tlaj ta gaad uke{lt|# ijd iuuaelitkd

keau|utkn g{j etlaju &Tlcnij kt ic*# ?229,*

Tfk Anluulaj ag GlufklkuIjatfk mciljm anluulaj lj tfk jit{ic kua{eku

ijd kjwlajnkjt uketlaj agM T ? 2 9; lu tfk cie` ag ij|

dlue{uulaj aj tfk lnr iet ag dkecljljm glufklku iu kcitkd

ta gaad uke{lt| ijd mkjkic kjwlajn kjtic tkjdu* Tflu

anluulaj lu eltleic mlwkj tfit# iu i gaad ua{ek# gluf

rawldkd 97*; rkekjt ag tfk tatic ijlnic ratklj ga

f{nij eaju{nrtlaj lj 9


16/42


Eannkjtirlku

tfk utit{u ag tfk }acdu glufklku ik tfit tfk ijj{ic mcaoic

eitef ag }lcd gluf lu ckwkcljm agg it h{ut {jdk


17/42

=;KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

io{jdijek# ijd uflgtu lj rkdita.rk| kcitlajuflru* Icc

ag tfkuk }lcc {ctlnitkc| lnriet keau|utkn g{jetlaju ijd

ukwleku &]{ktflef# ?222,*

Ga kvinr ck# luljm uki u{giek tknr kit{ku &dlwkj

o| eclnitk efijmk, ik ieekrtkd o| tfk uelkjtlgle

eann{jlt| iu tfk rlni| ei{uk ag tfk {jrkekdkjtkd

mcaoic eaic ockiefljm kwkjtu* Tfk niuu eaic ockiefljm

ijd n aticlt| kwkjtu ag 9


18/42


Eannkjtirlku

O| Nlefikc I* Ckdkkj

Racle|ni`ku da jat }ijt oaid mkjkiclxitlaju#

fkdmkd lj }kiukc }adu* Tfk| }ijt urkelgle

ijic|uku ag kic ea{jtlku }ltf kic ckidku* Iciu#

M T ? 2 9; mlwku wk| clttck urkelglelt| ijd &inixljmc|, gilcu

ta nkjtlaj i uljmck ckidk* Ljutkid# lt icnaut ic}i|u

dkueloku ua nij| rauulolcltlku tfit lt lu wlt{icc| {ukckuu

ga racle| r{rauku* ]fkj tfk krat daku ti`k i gln

utijd# ltu ecilnu ik d{ola{u* Ijd lt lu dijmka{uc|

awkeajgldkjt a j it ckiut ajk ag tfk n iha r acle| luu{ku

gieljm tflu ea{j t|*N| fkit maku a{t ta tfk i{tfau# }fa }kk iu`kd

ta eajd{et ij lnrauulock kvkeluk* Ja ajk tflu uldk ag

Jautidin{u eij iee{itkc| gakeiut 9; |kiu ifkid0

ij|ajk }fa eij mkt lt lmft ga tfk jkvt tfkk ta glwk

|kiu lu i mkjl{u* J a }aj dk tf k| fkdmkd icnaut icc tfkl

oktu* Nakawk# lt lu fid kja{mf ga i uljmck u`lcckd tflj`k

ta rad{ek i ecki# ljelulwk ijic|ulu0 lg ij kjtlk ean nlttkk

fiu ta ulmj agg aj lt# tfk gljic rad{et }lcc ic}i|u ok

n{ddckd ijd dlc{tkd* M T ? 2 9 ; lu okttk tfij naut

N lefikc I * C kdkkj facdu tfk Gkkdan E fil it tfk I nkleij K jtkrluk Lj utlt {tk ga R{ ocle Racle| _ kukief lj

] iufljmtaj# D *E * D * C kdkkj ukwkd iu Urkelic I dwluk ta tfk Ukekti| ag U titk ijd }iu i eaju{ctijt ta tfk

D kritn kjtu ag U tit k ijd D kgkjuk iu }kcc iu ta tfk J itlajic U ke{lt | E a{jelc d{ljm tfk _ kimij I dn ljlutitlaj*

Gilclk# Ulnaj* &9


19/42

==KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

tfk urkelgleu8 }flef ik tfk gk} ea{jt lku# ijd }f| }lcc

tfk| da okttk1 ]fit eij }k da ta ljekiuk tfk efijeku

ag atfk ea{jtlku daljm okttk1 J ajk ag tfkuk tfknku

ik dlue{uukd*

]auk |kt# tfkk lu i nlum{ldkd iuu{nrtlaj lj M T

?29; tfit r aocknu ik okut uacwkd o| mawkjnkjtuEij

iuu{nrt laj tfit ljgan u utitknkjtu u{ef iu8 Ta raurk

lj tfk mcaoic keajan| ag ?29;# mawkjnkjtu }lcc fiwkta ljwkut nak lj tkefjacam|# lj r{ocle kd{eitlaj# ijd lj

oaidk ri t le lrit laj lj mawkjnkjt ta lje c{dk

ljekiuljmc| ljgc{kjtlic jajutitk ietau &rimk 96,* Ajk

nlmft okttk im{k tfit mawkjn kjtu }lcc fiwk ta da ckuu

ua tfit gkk rkarck eij g{jetlaj okttk# kd{eitlaj eij

lnrawk# ijd r lwitk iuuaelitlaju &gan ear aitlaju ta

rflcijtfarlku, eij g{jetlaj nak kggketlwkc|* Tfk o{c`

ag a{ kvrklkjek lj tfk riut ficg.ekjt{| u{mmkutu tfit

mawkjnkjt lu oatf i niha ei{uk ag tfk raocknu ijd

i flmfc| ljkgglelkjt kcknkjt lj tfkl uac{tlaj*

UelkjekI cat ag tfk uelkjek lj M T ? 2 9; lu d{ola{u* Mcaoic

}inljm# }flef lu i y{kutlajiock f|ratfkulu oiukd aj

eanr{tk nadkcljm tfit ckiwku a{t ukwkic `k| kcknkjtu

lj tfk kjwlajnkjt# lu ieekrtkd iu giet lj tfk krat8

Mcaoic }inljm }lcc eficckjmk tfk ljtkjitlajic

ean n{j lt| iu ljd leitlaj u ag i }inljm eclnitk * * *

aee{ &rimk 5?,* Tflu eajgldkjek lu nlurciekd0 tfkk

ufa{cd fiwk okkj uank dlue{uulaj ag tfk }ki`jkuu ag

tfk f|ratfkulu ijd tfk ea{j tkkwldkjek raljtljm ta mcaoic

eaacljm* Ijd tfk kratu mkjkiclxitlaju ioa{t tfk

mkkjfa{uk kggket ik icua uank}fit eajtidleta|* A jrimk 59# ga kvinrck# }k ik glut tacd tfit mkkjfa{uk

miu knluulaju }lcc ljekiuk u{outijtlicc|# ijd tfkj # citk

aj tfk uink rimk# }k fki tfit kjwlajn kjtic rkuu{ku

}lcc dkekiuk okei{uk jk} tkefjacamlku }lcc kd{ek tfk

itk ag ljekiuk lj tfk ina{jt ag racc{tlaj*** Ijd lt

ukknu ta o k iuu{nkd tfit j{ecki kjkm|tfk eckijkut

kjkm| gan ag icc}lcc jat ok kvrijdkd*

Ulnlcic|# M T ? 2 9 ; mkjkiclxitlaju aj nkdleic

uelkjek ik gi ok|ajd kiuajio ck# u{ef iu ltu iuuktlaj

tfit Pj^ajljgketla{u d lukiuku }lcc rauk mkitk eficckjmku

ta fkictf lj dkwkcarkd ea{jtlku tfij }lcc ljgketla{u

dlukiuku &rimk ?4,* Tflu iuuktlaj ukknu u{urketE}fit}ltf tfk knkmkjek ag jk} d{m.kulutijt utilju ag

ljgketla{u dlukiuku cl`k TO# nicili ijd rjk{najli# ijd

tfk ratkjtlic ga jk} ganu ag ILDU* Ta ti`k ajk

kvinrck# lg ILD U n{titku ljta i gan tfit eij ok eilkd

o| ikauac a ljuketuijd tfkk ik uank wk| maad

uelkjtlutu }fa ui| tflu lu y{ltk rauulocktfk kj tlk rlet{k

}a{cd efijmk*

}ankj }fa eanrauk eajtknrai| mawkjijek*

Tfk krat u gilc{k ta dkic }ltf kic ckidku ckidu tfk

i{tfau ljta uan k {jgat{jitk k{rfknlunu# }flef lj t{j

aoue{k uank mcaoic kicltlku* Tic`ljm ioa{t Iglei# ga

kvinrck# }k fki tfit tfk ratkjtlic ga ginljk }lcc rkulut

lj ea{jtlku }ltf krkuulwk mawkjnkjt raclelku a

ljtkjic eajgcletu &rimk


20/42


Eannkjtirlku

Rkdletljm tfk g{t{k lu dlggle{ct* ]ljuta j Ef{eflcc#

}fkj iu`kd ta clut tfk dkuliock y{icltlku ga ij

iurlljm racltlelij# iju}kkd8 Lt lu tfk iolclt| ta

gaktkcc }fit lu maljm ta firrkj tanaa}# jkvt }kk`#

jkvt najtf# ijd jkvt |ki* * *ijd ta fiwk tfk iolclt|igtk}idu ta kvrcilj }f| lt dldjt firrkj*

Fiwljm kekjtc| okkj tfa{mf ij kvkeluk it tfk [jltkd

@ljmdan Nljlut| ag Dkgkjek &NAD, ulnlci ta M T

?29; &}flef e{cnljitkd lj r{ocleitlaj ag t fk rirk T fk

G {t{ k U titkmle E ajtkv t ga D kgkjek,# L eij knritflxk }ltf

icc tfauk ljwacwkd lj tfk rad{etlaj ag tfk [*U* krat*

Rkfiru tfk ajc| rkdletlaju }flef tfk| &ijd }k, eij

ni`k }ltf ioua c{tk ektiljt| lu tfit uan k rkarck }lcc tkcc

{u tfit }k fiwk mat lt }ajm# ijd tfit uan k ag tfkn }lcc

EfljiGljicc|# tfkk lu Eflji# rkfiru tfk naut lnratijt

uljmck gaklmj racle| eficckjmk ta tfk [jltkd Utitku* Tfk

dlket tfkit ta tfk [ jltkd Utitku lu dkuelokd o| M T ? 2 9;

lj ajk ag tfauk k{rfknlunu tfit ni`k tfk dae{nkjt ua

n{ef ckuu {ukg{c tfij lt ufa{cd ok8

Kutlnitku ag Eflji ok|ajd glwk |kiu ikgi{mft }ltf {j`ja}iocku***Naut iuukuunkjt u tadi|

im{k tfit Eflji }lcc ukk` ta iwald eajgclet lj tfk

kmlaj ta ranatk utiock keajanle ma}tf ijd ta

kju{k ljtkjic utiolclt|* I utajm Eflji# atfku iuukt#

}a{cd ukk` ta idh{ut kmlajic ra}k iijmknkjtu

ta ltu idwijtimk# lu`ljm eajgclet }ltf jklmfoau ijd

uank r a}ku kvtkjic ta tfk kmlaj &rimk ;2,*

Tfit ciut eci{ukuank ra}ku kvtkjic ta tfk

kmlajn kiju tfk [ jltkd Utitku* Tfk oiulu ga lt lu jat

uank tfkaktleic f|ratfkulu# o{t tfk agglelic nlclti|

daet ljk ag tfk Rkarcku _kr{ocle ag Eflji# }flef oijdu

tfk [jltkd Utitku ij kjkn|# ijd ieeadljmc| dkgljku

Efljiu nlclti| nluulaj iu rkriljm ta glmft ijd }lj i

}i }ltf tfk [jltkd Utitku* ]f| lu tfit daetljk jat urkcckd

a{t kvrcleltc|1 Tfk na ut cl kc| iju}k lu tfit tfk i{tfau

ag tfk dae{nkjt da jat okclkwk lt* Tfk| ufa{cd fiwk

uild ua* Tfk| ma aj ta ui| tfit tfk nihalt| ag tfk

&Efljkuk nlclti|, gaek }lcc jat ok g{cc| nadkjlxkd o|

?29; &rimk ;5,ij ljekd lock eciln }flef lj t{j kutu

aj tfk iuu{nrtlaj tfit tfk e{kjt ckidku irrikjtc|

imkk tfit# ga tfk gakukkiock g{t{k# u{ef rlaltlku iu

imle{ct{ic ijd jitlajic ljgiut{et{k nadkjlxitlaj

n{ut ti`k rkekdkjek awk nlclti| dkwkcarn kjt &rimk

;4,ijd tfit tflu racle| }lcc knilj lj rciek {jdk tfkjkvt mkjkitlaj*

Tfkuk ik iuu{nrtlaju tfit dlwk i ektilj Inkleij

racle|# }fauk tkjktu ik8 dajt }a| ioa{t Eflji# dajt

t| ta clnlt tfk kvrat u ag ]kutkj n lclti| tkefjacam|#

ijd dajt dkulmj Inkleij racle| ta dkic }ltf tfk wk|

kic rauulolclt| ag inkd eajgclet }ltf Eflji* Tfk

iuu{nrtlaju ni| ok t{k o{t tfkk lu catu ag kwldkjek

tfit tfk| ik jat# ijd racle|ni`ku ik rild ta ratket

tfk jitlaj imiljut }aut.eiuk uekjilau*M T ? 2 9; knoieku

tfk naut uaatfljm uekjila# kwkj iu lt }iju tfit tfk

Efljkuk g{t{k eijjat ok rkdletkd }ltf ij| kic

eajgldkjek ok|ajd glwk |kiu it tfk naut*

Tf{u# jat a jc| lu tfk dae{n kjt mkjkicc| ag clttck {uk

ta r acle|ni`ku0 aj aeeiulaj # ljdkkd aj }fit lu im{ioc|

tfk n aut lnratijt gaklmj racle| eficckjmk }k giek# lt lu

da}jlmft dijmka{u*

IDWKJT[_KULJ G[T[_ACAM\

O| Miwlj @ltefljmfin# [jltkd @ljmdan Nljlut| ag Dkgkjek

M iwlj @ltefljmfin }a` u lj tfk Racle| Rcijjljm D lketaitk ag tfk [ @ N ljlut| ag D kgkjek &N A D , ijd }iu tfkrlj elric i{tfa ag tfk G{t{k Utitkmle Eajtkvt ga D kgkjek r{oclufkd lj Gko{i| ?2 29 * F lu tlnk lj tfk N A D#

}flef fk haljkd lj 9


21/42

=


22/42


Eannkjtirlku

MT ? 2 9 ; aggku i eanrkfkjulwk ijd ljtkcclmkjt

wlk} ag niha mcaoic tkjdu ijd ua{eku ag oa tf

utkjmtf ijd ljutiolclt| ga tfk jkvt 9; |kiu* ]flck

L da jat dluimkk }ltf tfk kratu awkicc iuukuunkjt#

tfkk ik t}a luu{ku }flef ltu i{tfau nlmft fiwk mlwkj

mkitk knrfiulu8 &i, tfk ma}tf ag |a{jm nick

rar{citlaju# ijd &o, ekjtic lxkd ijd ljkggketlwk

mawkjijek lj ea{j tlku kvrklkjeljm tfit ma}tf* Tfkuk

d|jinleu ukkn ta nk ta rkukjt i mkitk tfkit ag

wlackjek ijd ljutiolclt| tfij tfk krat kjwluimku*

Efijmljm Imk Ut{et{ku

Efijmljm imk ut{et{ku }lcc rawldk niha ua{ekuag ljutiolclt| lj oatf tfk nak.dkwkcarkd ijd tfk ckuu.

dkwkcarkd kmlaju a g tfk }acd* Ga tfk nak.dkwkcarkd

kmlaju# imljm rar{citlaju }lcc ky{lk cimk lnnlmijt

utkinu ta rawldk tfk ky{lkd }a` gaek* Tfkuk kmlaju

}lcc icua eajtlj{k ta ok nimjktu ga cimk }iwku ag ckmic

ijd lcckmic lnnlmijtu* Lj kltfk eiuk# tfk n lmijtu }lcc ok

eanljm rlnilc| gan n{ef raak ea{jtlku }ltf

ni`kdc| dlggkkjt uaelic# kclmla{u# ijd e{ct{ic u|utknu*

MAWK_JIJEKIJD EFIJMLJM IMK UT_[ET[_KU

O| Mi|c D* Jkuu

M i|c D* J kuu lu Ragkuua K nklt{u ag U aelacam| it tfk [ jlwkult| ag N leflmij* F lu niha kekjt r{ocleitlaju ljec{dk

Glwk Eltlku8 Nadkccljm Iulij [oij Rar{citlaj K jwlajnkjt D |jinleu &?222,0 Rar{citlaj ijd Utitkmlku

ga Jitlajic U{utiljiock Dkwkcarnkjt &9


23/42


ioa{t 9? nlcclaj* Ickid| tfk Ri`lutijl mawkjnkjt lu

ljeiriock ag rawldljm uefaacu ga tfk mkit n ihalt| ag

tfkuk |a{jm nkj* Ltu eanoljkd rlni| ijd ukeajdi|

uefaac kjaccnkjt itla ag 49 rkekjt lu kwkj ckuu tfij

n{ef.raak Jkric &[JDR# 9


24/42

KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =6?

Eannkjtirlku

_KGK_KJEKU

eltleic luu{k ag racltleic dkwkcarn kjt lj tfk jk} utitku*5

Fk jatkd &i, tfit tfkuk jk} mawkjnkjtu }kk flmfc|

ekjticlxkd# &o, tfit tflu ekjticlxitlaj rad{ekd

dkolcltitljm ljkgglelkjelku ijd kviekoitkd ljky{icltlku# ijd

&e, tfit ekjticlxitlaj rawkd ta ok i ukcg.kljgaeljm

raekuu* Lt rad{ekd i wlela{u e|eck lj }flef tfk ekjtic

mawkjnkjt `krt ra}k ijd kua{eku ga ltukcg okei{uk

lt okclkwkd caeic mawkjnkjtu cie`kd kggketlwknijimknkjt eirieltlku* O{t ekjticlxitlaj ltukcg dkrlwkd

caeic mawkjnkjtu ag tfk kvrklkjek ta ckij ijd dkrlwkd

caeic rar{citlaju ag ij| rauulolclt| ag ni`ljm tfkl

mawkjnkjtu kurajulock ijd kuraj ulwk}flef g{tfk

kljgaekd tfk im{nkjt ga ekjticlxitlaj*

F lmf dkmkku ag mawkjnkjt ekjticlxitlaj icua tkjd

ta }ki`kj mawkjnkjt kggatu ta ranatk uaelic ijd

keajanle dkwkcarnkjt* Ekjticlxitlaj dkrlwku rcijjku

ag lnratijt ljganitlaj ioa{t caeic eajdltlaju ijd

aout{etu tfk idirtitlaj ag rciju ta dlutljetlwk caeic

ult{itlaju* [jgat{jitkc|# tfauk ea{jtlku }ltf tfk }ki`kut

ijd naut ekjticlxkd mawkjnkjtu ik icua tfauk }ltf

tfk flmf ijd ma}ljm j{noku ag |a{jm n icku* Iu tfk|

cie` tfk eirielt| ta rawldk farkg{c g{t{ku ga tfkuk

|a{jm# tfk ratkjtlic ga wlackjek lj tfkuk ea{jtlku

ljekiuku*

Lj u{n# imk ut{et{ku }lcc ok eltleic ljmkdlkjtu lj

uaelic utiolclt| ijd wlackjek awk tf k jki g{t{k* Imljm lj

K{ark }lcc ky{lk kwkj mkitk lnnlmitlaj tfij }kukk ja}# ijd }ltf tflu nlmitlaj }lcc eank rkuu{ku

iuuaelitkd }ltf lmft.}ljm racltleu* Lt lu lj tfk raakut

ea{jtlku# fa}kwk# tfit imk ut{et{ku }lcc ok naut

raocknitle* Tfkk# ma}ljm j{noku ag |a{jm nicku

}lcc ok clwljm {jdk mawkjnkjtu ljeiriock ag rawldljm

tfkn n{ef f ark ga tfk g{t{k0 ijd dknimam{ku }lcc ok

tknrtkd ta kvrcalt tflu rar{citlaj ga wlackjt kjdu*

Tfa{mf n{ef ag tfit wlackjek ni| ok caeiclxkd# lt ea{cd

icua kiulc| urlcc awk jitlajic oa{j dilku ijd okeank rit

ag tfk mcaoic jkt}a` ag tkalun ijd wlackjek*

KJDJATKU

9 L }iu glut nidk i}ik ag tflu luu{k o| Fa}id Uef{n ij# }fa

eajd{etkd u{wk|u ag ielic ittlt{dku ga tfk @kjk Eanluulaj

lj 9


25/42


UKI_EFLJMGA_ EANKTU

O| Diwld _khku`l

D iwld _ khku` l lu i U rkelic I uulutijt ta tfk D lketa ijd i _ kuldkjt U efaci it tfk ] aada} ] lcuajEkjtk# }fkk

fk dlketu i rahket aj gakulmft ijd mawkjijek* N aut kekjtc|# fk }iu i W lultljm Gkcca} it \ ick [ jlwkult|u U efaac ag

Gakut| ijd K jwlajn kjtic U t{dlku ijd ij K jwlajnkjtic R atketlaj I mkje| krkukjtitlwk ta tfk ] fltk F a{ukE a{jelc aj K jwlajnkjtic Y {iclt| &EK Y ,* Okgak nawljm ta EK Y # fk }a kd it tfk ] fltk F a{uk A gglek ag U elkjek

ijd T kefjacam| aj i wilkt| ag tkefjacam| ijd _ ' D luu{ku*

L}iu jat u{k }fktfk L ufa{cd irraief tfk eajtkj t

ag tfk kekjt M T ? 2 9; krat iu i ma{nkt &kimkc|

uinrcljm i n{ctl.ea{uk nkic, a iu i }ki|.k|kd

iutajank &ukiefljm ga dln eanktu ijd {jefitkd

micivlku,* L efauk tfk cittk irraief# lg ajc| ta t| ta

gljd }i|u ag o{lcdljm aj tfk krat ijd tfk dlicam{k L

lnimljk lt }lcc utln{citk*

L }lcc ti`k ij {jrar{ci utijek# ijd icua ajk tfit

ukknkd {jdkdkwkcarkd lj tfk kratjinkc|# tfitljutlt{tlaju nittk# kurkelicc| ljutlt{tlaju tfit eij ckij ijd

idirt irldc| lj flmfc|.eanrckv mcaoic u|utknu* _kekjtc|#

Rktk D{e`k ilukd tfk ldki tfit tfk rlnk dlwk ag

g{t{k uaelkt| }lcc jat ok tkefjacam|# ljganitlaj# a

rad{etlwlt|# o{t }fit fk tknu tfk nijimkd ljutlt{tlaj

&D{e`k# 9


26/42


Eannkjtirlku

Ckiwljm tijujitlajic earaitlaju agg tfk nir ag tfk knkmljm mkaracltleic

cijdueirk lu cl`k ckiwljm tfk u{rkflmf}i| u|utkn a{t ag tfk _ijd NeJicc| itciu*

D iwld _khku`l# ]aada} ] lcuaj Ekj tk

9?2 ea{jtlku* FR fiu `k| kukief ciou lj tfk [jltkd

@ljmdan# Gijek# Luikc# ijd Hirij0 lt fiu rciju ta arkj

ciou lj Eflji ijd Ljdli* Ijd it tfk nankjt# awk ajk.

ficg ag D {rajtu uicku iu }kcc iu awk ajk.tfld a g ltu

}a` gaek ik a{tuldk ag tfk [jltkd Utitku*

Ti`kj iu i ma{r# TJEu kvkeluk kjan a{u eaj tac

awk i wilkt| ag gaeku ufirljm a{ eaccketlwk g{t{k*

Tfkuk ljec{dk8 &i, j{tltlaj &lj oatf dkwkcarkd ijddkwkcarljm ea{jtlku,0 &o, ieekuu ta kvlutljm ijd kwacwljm

tkckeann{jleitlaju ljgiut{et{k0 &e, mcaoic

tijuratitlaj ijd camlutleu0 &d, tfk iwilciolclt| ag jk}u0

&k, tfk ufirljm ag eaju{nk rkgkkjeku ijd tiutku0 &g,

tfk g ca} ag e{kje|0 ijd &m, tfk rawlu laj ag

rfiniek{tleicu ijd fkictf eik*

N| r{rauk lu jkltfk ta wljdleitk ja wlclg| cimk

o{uljkuu* _itfk# lt lu ta ni`k tfk raljt tfit ckiwljm

tijujitlajic earaitlaju agg tfk nir ag tfk knkmljm

mkaracltleic cijdueirk lu cl`k ckiwljm tfk u{rkflmf}i|

u|utkn a{t ag tfk _ijd NeJ icc| itciu*

Tfk Lnratijek ag Gckvlolclt| ijd CkijljmTfk gljic kiuaju TJEu nittk ni| ukkn ckuu aowla{u

o{t ik ky{icc| eltleic ijd fiwk ta da }ltf }fit nlmft

ok tknkd amijlx itlajic ckij ljm eirielt|* [jcl`k nij| utitk

ietau# }flef eij u{wlwk }ltf a{tn adkd nljduktu# imljm}a`gaeku# ijd elrrckd o{dmktu# mcaoic earaitlaju

ik {jdk eajtlj{ic rkuu{k ta eficckjmk ijd efijmk tfkl

ckmie| u|utknu ijd arkitljm iuu{nrtlaju* Tfk| n{ut

eajjket ta tfk a{tuldk }acd ijd {uk kwacwljm ijd a gtkj

{jektilj `ja}ckdmk ag tfkl arkitljm kjwlajnkjt ta

da okttk &Ivkcad ' Eafkj# 9


27/42

6;KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

Imi}ic# Wlr{c ' Ea fkj# Na lu* &?222# Aet aok ?,* U{wk|

niutkljm nijimknkjt8 Icc efijmk lj tfk ukeajd

u{rrc|kwac{tlaj* G ljijelic T lnku* PA j.cljk^* Iwilciock8

fttr 8! ! mcaoicieflwk*gt*eanmcaoicieflwkitlecku*ftnc1ld

>22922?229?66'y{k|>NaluEafkj

Ivkcad# _aokt ' Eaf kj# Nlefikc* &9


28/42


Eannkjtirlku

MT ? 2 9 ; lu ij lnrkuulwk kggat &i, ta ldkjtlg|

niha dktknljijtu lj ljtkjitlajic racltleu# &o,

ta ukt gatf tf k {jektilj g{t{k tfit tfk| ratkjd #

ijd &e, ta {jeawk uank eakurajdljm raraultlaju

kckwijt ta tfk racle|ni`k* Ltu wlt{k utknu jat gan

eajgldkjt ramjaulu o{t itfk gan tfk keamjltlaj tf it

ljtkjitlajic racltleu clku lj tfk fijdu ag d lwku }flef

kcitk ta a jk ijatfk lj {jr kdletiock giuflaj* A { oiule

rkdleinkjt lu eanrckv0 M T ? 2 9 ; tkiuku gan tflu

eanrckvlt| i uklku ag raraultlaju tfit ik it ajeknadkut ijd {ukg{c*

Acd ijd Jk} Y{kutlajuLj rit# tfk i{tfau agM T ? 2 9; irraief tf kl tiu

}ltf i tidltlajic gink}a` ga ijic|xljm ljtkjitlajic

racltleu* Tfk eciuule y{kutlaju eajekjljm tfk ldkjtlt| ag

tfk niha ietau# tfkl eiriolcltlku# ijd tfkl ljtkjtlaju

kmidljm ajk ijatfk knilj o | lnrcleitlaj* T fk kra t

efiietklxku tfk raut.9


29/42

6=KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =

ga In kleij uke{lt| racle| ijd n lclti| gaek ut {et{k*

Im{ioc|# tfkuk eficckjmku ik tfk uiclkjt gkit{k ag tfk

ut{d|* Inajm niha rci|ku# lt raultu Eflji# _{uuli# Hirij#

ijd Ljdli iu }atf| ag r itle{ci ittkjtlaj0 ietlaju tfkuk

ea{jtlku ti`k }lc c ok wltic ta tidlt lajic ra}k

kcitlajuflru lj `k| kmlaju* Tfa{mf M T ? 2 9; daku jat

gakeiut tfk ietlaju ag tf kuk `k| rci|ku }ltf rkelulaj # lt

daku ni`k ecki tfit tfk [jltkd Utitku }lcc ktilj i nihaack lj niljtiljljm ij ieekrtiock oicijek ag ra}k lj

kief ag tfkl iuuaelitkd kmlaju* Tfk eanra jkjtu ag tflu

ra}k ik oatf eajwkjtlajic ijd j {ecki0 lt tfkkgak lu

{jcl`kc| tfit tfk [jltkd Utitku eij iwald kurajdljm }ltf

it ckiut uan k ckwkc ag gaek lj `ljd* Tflu# L }a{cd u{on lt#

lu tfk tidltlajic nlclti| lnrkitlwk eajtiljkd lj tfk

krat*

Fa}kwk# tidltlajic jatlaju ag nlclti| ra}k da

jat kjha| ekjtk utimk lj M T ? 2 9 ; * Ljutkid# lt rati|u

tfk dlwku okfljd tfk kwacwljm kcitlajuflru inajm

tfk n iha r a}ku lj ljekiuljmc| keajanle# dknamirfle#

ijd kua{ek tknu* Jaj.nlclti| dlwku ik ritle{cic|

uiclkjt lj tidltlajic ikiu ag kmlajic eajekj u{ef iu

Ua{tf Iuli# U{o.Uifiij Iglei# ijd Citlj In klei* M T

?29; i{tfau icua ra ljt a{t y{ltk rarkc| tfit i faut a g

jk} jaj.utitk rci|ku ik knkmljmljec{dljm

tijujitlajic kclmla{u ljutlt{tlaju# ljtkjitlajic jajraglt

&ijd r aglt), amijlxitlaju# ljtkjitlajic elnk u|jdleitku

ijd d{m tiggle`ku# gaklmj nkekjilku# ijd ljtkjitlajic

tkalutu * Tfkuk krkukjt tfk jaj.tidlt lajic

lnrkitlwku ga Inkleij racle|*

Ijd ua lt lu tfit M T ? 2 9; uktu gatf riinktku ga

nlclti| gaek ut{et{k iu }kcc iu uke{lt| racle| lj ioaidk ukjuk* Tfk eikg{c kidk eij aj c| ok eaj ekjkd

tfit tfk kurajuk a g tfk Inkleij dkgkjuk kutioclufnkjt

ta tfkuk eficckjmku knilju gae{ukd aj tfk tidltlajic

dlnkjulaju ag tfauk eficckjmku* Tfk ua.eicckd _kwac{tlaj

lj Nlclti| Iggilu &}flef krkukjtu tfk ekjtic tfknk

ag ajmaljm dlicam{ku ioa{t Inkleij uke{lt| racle|,

cimkc| kcitku ta ni`ljm a{ nlclti| kutioclufnkjt n ak

kgglelkjt ijd kggketlwk aj tfk oittckglkcd o| {uljm

ljganitlaj.imk tkefjacam| iu }kcc iu iuuaelitkd

amijlxitlajic ijd raekd{ic lnrawknkjtu &A}kju#

?222,* Tfkuk ik }atf| kjtkr luku tfit# lg lnrcknkjtkd#

eij lnrawk tfk nlclti|u eirielt| ga nkktljm t idltlajic

eficckjmku ijd kwkj kvrijd# it tfk nimlj# ltu {tlclt| ga

u{ef jaj.tidltlajic tiu`u iu rkiek`kkrljm ijd dluiutk

kclkg*O{t M T ? 2 9; ni`ku ecki tfit i }ldk wilkt| ag jaj.

tidltlajic eficckjmku icua ik kjeanriuukd }ltflj a{

uke{ l t| rkdleinkjt * Ja ina{jt ag lnrawkd

tkefja cam| irrclkd ta }kiraju u|utknu lj i cljki giuflaj

&a# ga tfit nittk# i ckirgam giuflaj, eij kuacwk tfk

ean rckv luu{ku knkmljm lj tfk raut.ljd{ut lic imk* Kwkj

Eci{uk}ltx ui} }i iu i kni`iock tljlt| kwacwljm

ioa{t rkarck# tfk utitk# ijd tfk glkcd ag oittck &Ok|kefkj#

9


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Eannkjtirlku

EFLJI# ECLNITK EFIJMK# IJD OLIUKULJMT ?29;

O| H{dltf Ufirla

H{dltf U firla tkiefku kjwl ajnkjtic racltleu it I nkleij [ jlwkult|* F k jk} oaa` # Nia>u ]i Imiljut J it{k8 Racltleu ijd

tfk K jwlajnkj t lj _kwac{tlaji| Eflji# lu r{oclufkd o| Ein oldmk [ jlwkult| Rkuu* F k atfk oaa u aj Eflji# &}lttkj }ltf

C lijm F kjm,# ljec{dk Uaj ag tf k _kwac{tlaj &@jarg# 9


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6


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KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =


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KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =


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KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =


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KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =


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KEUR _KRA_T LUU[K =


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Eannkjtirlku

EF L J I KJWL _AJNKJT UK_L KUL uu{k 4

Tfk ]a`ljm Ma{r aj Kjwlajnkjt lj [*U*.Eflji _kcitlaju# i rahket

}ltflj t fk ]aada} ] lcuaj Ekj tku Kjwlajnkjt ic Efij mk ijd Uke{lt| Rahket#ijd g{jdkd o| tfk ]* Ictaj Hajku Ga{jditlaj# tfk Diwld ijd C{elck Rie`id

Ga{jditlaj# ijd tfk Kjkm| Ga{jditlaj# fiu r{oclufkd ltu ga{tf luu{k ag tfk

Eflji Kjwlajnkjt Uklku* I taac ga kukiefku# racle|ni`ku# ijd kd{eitau#

E KU kvinljku kjwlajnkjtic ijd kjkm| eficckjmku gieljm Eflji ijd kvrcaku

ekitlwk ldkiu ijd arrat{jltlku ga mawkjnkjtic ijd jajmawkjnkjtic &JMA,

eaarkitlaj*

Tfk ga{ gkit{k itlecku lj tfk e{kjt luu{k agEKU ik eajjketkd o| i eannaj tfknk ag tijultlaj ijd

efijmkurkelgleicc|# fa} racltleic ijd keajanle efijmku lj Eflji fiwk iggketkd tfk lnrcknkjtitlaj ag

kjwlajnkjtic ijd kjkm| raclelku* Ti`kj tamktfk# tfkuk itlecku icua riljt i eckik rlet{k ag tfk

efijmljm ack caeic mawkjn kjtu ijd J MA u &oatf E fljkuk ijd gaklmj, ik rci|ljm lj ufirljm tfk

rlaltlku ijd kggketlwkjkuu ag kjwlajnkjtic ratketlaj ijd kjkm| ljltlitlwku lj Eflji*

Jk} ta E KU lj tflu luu{k lu i Eannkjtilku!Jatku Gan tfk Glkcd uketlaj# ljec{dljm u{onluulaju

gan jk} Eflji uefaciu ijd kjkm| kukiefku*

Gkit{k ItleckuF at I l ijd E acd ]itk8 T fk [ jkvrketkd Gicc lj E fl jiu Kjkm| [uk

Hajitfij Uljtaj ijd D iwld Gldck|

Caeic Kj wl aj n kjt ic N ij imkn kjt lj Efl ji

Nilc|j Okief

Ri|ljm ga tfk Kjwlajn kjt lj E flj i8 T fk Ma}ljm _ack ag tfk N i`ktU{j E fijmhlj

Tatic Knluulaj Eaj tac ag N iha Racc{tij tu lj E flj i

D ij D {dk`# Ni Xf ajm# Hlij|{ X fijm# M{ah{j Uajm# ijd Uf{ylj Cl{

Eannkjtilku!Jatku Gan tfk Glkcd

Ef imk ta tfk O{uf Idn ljlutitlaj8 [ *U* Lj tkkutu lj Kj km| Eaarkitlaj }l tf E flji @kcc| Ulnu

Ef ljiu Efij mljm Eioaj D lavldk Kn luulaju Hkggk| Camij

Ukk lj m Eajtidletlaju lj t fk Glkcd8 Kjwlaj n kjtic Keajanl eu# R{ocle D luecau{k# ijd E i{t la{u Artln lun ioa{t E flj iu

Kjwlajn kjtic G{t{kKle X{unij

Kjw lajn kjtic D lur{tku ijd R{ocle Ukwlek8 Riut ij d RkukjtIjji Okttkcc

Ec{ ku ijd E {kuF {nrfk| ]a{

T fk Efijmljm Eajtkvt ga Til}ij kuk Kjwlajn kjtic J MA uUkij Mlcokt

Ckt I T fa{ uijd N {e`i` ku Ocaan _i| Efk{jm

E KU 4 icua eajtilju ij {rditkd ijd kvrijdkd Ljwkjta| ag Kjwlajnkjtic Rahketu lj Eflji#

}flef dkueloku rahketu eajd{etkd o| [*U* mawkjnkjt imkjelku iu }kcc iu jajmawkjnkjtic ijd

n{ctlcitkic amijlxitlaju*

the u.s. national intelligence council's global trends 2015: excerpts, commentaries, and response

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