The US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Forests: Where We’ve Been and Where We’re GoingChristopher W. Woodall with Domke, Smith, Coulston, Healey, Gray

U.S. Forest ServiceForest Inventory and Analysis St. Paul, MN

Outline

ContextRecent

Science/ImprovementsNear Term DeliverablesLong Term Plans

Courtesy of Perry et al. In Prep Atlas of US Forests

Forest Carbon Cycle in Context of US Emissions

86% ≈15%Why inventory?

Annual sequ...0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Other

Settlements

Grassland

Cropland

Forest land

That 15% Might Get Larger

Past, Current, and Future C

Inform Policy At Various Scales

Vs.Biogenic emissions

Post-2020 Emission Targets

National Forest NEPA

Recent Enhancements of FIA’s Carbon Inventory

CRM adoptionStanding dead C estimation overhaul Incorporation of P3 downed dead wood CP2+ Inventories (i.e., greater sample

intensity)National utilization (i.e., life cycle analysis)Dead wood residence time researchC density imputation (i.e., Wilson’s maps)

Differences in dead tree carbon

MethodCRM:CRM+DRF:CRM+DRF+SLA:

91.2 kg C89.2 kg C87.9 kg C

74.8 kg C61.2 kg C49.1 kg C

Decay class 5

Decay class 1

Decay class 2

Decay class 3

Decay class 4

29.4 kg C19.6 kg C12.1 kg C

2.4 kg C1.7 kg C1.0 kg C

0.4 kg C0.3 kg C0.2 kg C

Harmon et al. 2011 NRS-RP-15Domke et al. 2011 CBMWoodall et al. 2012 Forestry

Downed Dead Wood

Woodall et al. 2013 FEM

Domke et al. 2013 PLoS One

Imputing Carbon Density to Landscape

Presented in 2014 NGHGI

3rd Most Downloaded Research Dataset in FS:RDS-2013-0004

Most Accessed Article on Journal Website

Wilson et al. 2013. CBM

Modeling of Dead Wood Residency

Woodall et al. 2012 FEM; Russell et al. 2013. Ecol. Model.; Russell et al. 2014. Ecosystems

Climate and Dead Wood?

Russell et al. In review

Near Term Deliverables

Carbon estimates from P2+/P3 Vegetation plots

New delineation of “managed” forest land in AK

Refined woodland vs forestland delineation

Forest floor C estimates from P3 data

Sources of stock estimation uncertainty

Understory vegetation Includes seedlings,

shrubs, grasses, and forbs

Formerly: Function of forest type and overstory size (based on Birdsey 1996), See EPA Annex 3.12

Cover and height by growth form “scales” estimates of maximum carbon

Russell et al. In Revision Forestry

Adding AK Forest to NGHGI

Per IPCC guidance…only forest potentially impacted by humans included in inventory

AK forests along transport corridors or in mining/gas areas

Ogle et al. In Prep

Woodlands vs Forest land

Beyond inventorying forests: woodlands and urban areas

Delineation based on maximum attainable height in situ (5m threshold)

≈50 million acres

Coulston et al. In Prep

Forest Floor CarbonPrimary Goal: Update

Smith and Heath (2002) models used in FIADB and NGHGI using extensive P3 observations

Progress: Initial modeling complete…integrate updated models in 2015 NGHGI

Sources of Uncertainty Objectives

Evaluate alternative estimation methods in DDW C

Quantify total uncertainty

Sources of Uncertainty Measurement Sampling Model selection Model parameter

Initial Results Differences among methods

may range up to 150%

• Oregon (2001-2010)• P2 plots = 4,859

Future Vision: Synergy

• Attribution• Land Use

Change• Disaggregation• Planned

Improvements• AK/HI

• Reduce uncertainty

• Alaska• Land Use

Change• Forecasting

Farm Bill: “Report information on renewable biomass supplies and carbon stocks at the local, State, regional, and national level, including by ownership type”

Increased Precision, Refined Data Distribution, and Application of RS/Biometrical Science

P2+ of Non-Live Tree Pools Increased P2 Sample Intensity/Reduced Cycle LengthContinued Incorporation of Biomass/C Attributes into Online

ToolsConsistent/Timely TPO/Utilization Information Improved biometrics: forest floor, soils, understory

vegetation, belowgroundNational Volume Biomass StudyLeverage Remote Sensing Technologies (e.g., ICE, LCMS)

Improving Change Detection and 1990-Present Baselines

NASA Grant: Carbon Monitoring Systems

National biomass mapping based on LiDAR and FIA network

Landsat change detection informs attribution of C to disturbance

Most Everything Feeds into Biomass/Carbon

ICE

LCMS

National Vol/Biomass Study

TPO/Utilization

Interior AK

Woodlands

P2+/P3

Questions?