the u.s. and washington area economic performance and...

11/9/2011

GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1

Blue Ridge Association of Realtors

November 3, 2011

The U.S. and Washington Area

Economic Performance and Outlook

John McClain, Senior FellowCenter for Regional Analysis

School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University

GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010(Real Dollars)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

%

11/9/2011


Annual Change in Jobs – US1940 - 2010

-7000

-5000

-3000

-1000

1000

3000

5000

THOUSANDS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1975-Q1

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Quarters After Trough

% Change in GDP

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions

Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

11/9/2011


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

62007-1 2 3 4

2008-1 2 3 4

2009-1 2 3 4

2010-1 2 3 4

2011-1 2 3 4

2012-1 2 3 4

2013-1 2 3 4

2014-1

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014

%Forecast > > > > > >

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mfg

N-Mfg

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

11/9/2011


Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US

-7000

-5000

-3000

-1000

1000

3000

THOUSANDS

Sep =+ 1.46 M

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

000s

US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted

Sep= 103

Source: BLS

11/9/2011


Annual Change in Employed - U.S.

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

THOUSANDS

Sep = 787

Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average

405

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11/9/2011


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

Sep = 9.1

%

GI FCST11 – 9.112 – 9.213 – 8.914 – 8.115 – 7.316 – 6.8

U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

Existing(left scale)

New

(Right Scale)

(000s) (000s)

11/9/2011


96.0

101.0

106.0

111.0

116.0

121.0

Nov-06

Feb-07

May-07

Aug-07

Nov-07

Feb-08

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

L.I.

C.I.

U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesNov 2006 – Sep 2011

RECESSION >

U.S. Leading Index

-6-4-202468

101214

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

11/9/2011


U.S. Coincident Index

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Consumer Prices2001 - 2015

Forecast > > > > > >

%

Source: BLS, Global Insight

11/9/2011


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Fed

30-Yr

Interest Rates2001 - 2015

Forecast > > > > > >

Oil Prices$ per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$/barrel

Source: Global Insight

Forecast > > > > > > > >

11/9/2011


Consumer Confidence

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

100

Present Situation

Expectations

Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

4.7

2.5 2.72.8

3.3 3.42.9

2.3

-0.6

-1.9

2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.02.5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6%

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Forecast > > > > >

11/9/2011


U.S. Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011

-41

-30

79

64

84

37

-13

196

120

162

561

450

-259

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

State & Local Govt

(000s) Total = 1,490

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Job Change by SectorAug 2011 – Sept 2011

34

-1

-1

-3

-6

26

-8

-13

-4

14

48

45

-33

-100 -50 0 50 100

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

State & Local Govt

(000s) Total = 103

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Ranked by Size in 2010

11/9/2011


The Washington Economy

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-MonthMoving Average

Aug

11/9/2011


-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-MonthMoving Average

Aug

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

000s

Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA

Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11/9/2011


Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2002

2004

2006

2008

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2009 2010 2011


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100(000s)

Washington +8,500


11/9/2011


Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011

Washington MSA

1

0

-4

-2

5

-4

-5

1

-3

2

3

0

12

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 8,500


Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002

2004

2006

2008

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

Dec

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2009 2010 2011


11/9/2011


Job Change by SectorSept 2010 – Sept 2011

Northern Virginia

-1

0

0

-2

1

-3

1

0

1

2

0

-3

5

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total + 600


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

11.0 – DC

9.1 – U.S.

6.3 – SMD6.1 – MSA4.9 - NVA

Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

11/9/2011


15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

September 2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14%

US9.1

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

6.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Clarke

Frederick

Warren

Shenandoah

VA

US

Unemployment Rate – August Each YearBRAR Counties

%

11/9/2011


Housing Market Trends

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Existing Home SalesWashington MSA

Through September 2011

12-Month Moving Average

Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11/9/2011


100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA


$315,200Sept 2011

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2011, MSA

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Jan-May, 2006 >100 %


%

Sep =- 29%

11/9/2011


Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

LDNFFX

ARL

PW


Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year – Metro Area

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


11/9/2011


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types

6

111414

2022

20

-16

-24-26

-20-18

-14

-10-9

-7

0

-4

3

96 6

46

5 4

75

4

8 9

2 2 13

13 4

-1

1 2

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%


Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2009 2010 2011

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types

5

101414

2223

1

-2

-25-28-28

-22-19

-12

-8

-2-1

9

5

11

1519

161716

12119 9

6

1010

40

6

24 4 6

0

3

7

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%


Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2009 2010 2011

11/9/2011


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Washington MSABuilding Permits

2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionMedian Sales Price – Sept Each Year$


11/9/2011


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionSales – Sept Each Year


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Blue Ridge Association of Realtors RegionListings – Sept Each Year


11/9/2011


Employment Change by

Sub-state Region (000s)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

D.C.D.C. 10.1 10.1 --2.22.2 9.59.5 3.33.3 5.75.7 8.68.6 9.39.3 9.89.8

Sub. MDSub. MD --3.33.3 --25.125.1 --5.95.9 4.64.6 7.57.5 11.311.3 14.114.1 16.216.2

No. VANo. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1

REGION 12.912.9 --50.350.3 11.311.3 23.623.6 30.330.3 39.539.5 44.944.9 48.148.1

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11

• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget

• Housing Market

– Foreclosures

– Fannie and Freddie

– Home Ownership

• Corporate Earnings

• Jobs

OUTLOOK - Factors

11/9/2011


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

62007-1 2 3 4

2008-1 2 3 4

2009-1 2 3 4

2010-1 2 3 4

2011-1 2 3 4

2012-1 2 3 4

2013-1 2 3 4

2014-1

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014

%Forecast > > > > > >

Source: IHS Global Insight

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