the urgency of upgrading our climate accounting: a roadmap ... · quick introduction to scs 3rd...

© SCS Global Services | 1

The Urgency of Upgrading Our Climate Accounting:

A Roadmap to Climate Stabilization

Stowe BeamSenior Director, Corporate Development

© Scientific Certification Systems | 2© SCS Global Services | 2

Quick Introduction to SCS 3rd party certifier since 1984 – based in the US

operating with representatives worldwide

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) practitioner since 1991, plus certification of wide range of products: green building, agriculture, natural resources, consumer products, and more.

Involved in national and international sustainability standards development:

o agriculture (ANSI)

o forestry (FSC)

o fisheries (MSC)

o biofuels (RSB)

o building materials (ANSI)

o furniture (BIFMA)

o LCA and Climate (ANSI, ISO)

Member of ANSI and ISO Standards committees

addressing climateaccounting

© Scientific Certification Systems | 3© SCS Global Services | 3© Scientific Certification Systems | 3© SCS Global Services 3

The Climate Crisis

Taking Stock of Where

We Are Today


Unprecedented Global Temperature

From 1750 -2013, the average global temperature rose about 0.8oC.

From 2013 to today, this rate of increase grew 50%, bringing us to a global average temperature for 2015-6 of about 1.2oC.


At the Threshold of Irreversible Change

And for the first few months of 2016, we actually hit 1.5oC —the ”best-case” goal of the Paris Climate Agreement.

The average for 2016 is projected to be 1.2oC.


“Tipping Point” 35 years earlier than anticipated

The impacts we are already experiencing at today’s temperatures pose a clear danger to the earth’s people, its flora and fauna, and overall ecosystem health and biodiversity.

• Demise of the world’s coral reefs

• Loss of oxygen in the oceans

• Super-typhoons and threat of megastorms

• Massive forest fires

• Spreading drought

• Disappearing Arctic sea ice

• Unparalleled melting of Greenland and Antarctica

• Ecosystem disruption


Climate Stabilization?

2.0° Celsius

1.5° Celsius

1.2° Celsius


Effective Mitigation is Needed Now to Stabilize Climate at 1.2oC

Adaptation strategies can only go so far…

http://paindr.com

We must work rapidly to identify and implement the projects and technologies that are:• Effective • At the proper scale• In the timeframe needed• Without unintended negative consequences


Climate Accounting

Updates Based on the

Latest Consensus

Climate Science

© Scientific Certification Systems | 10© SCS Global Services | 10© SCS Global Services | 10

Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC)

• Consensus of thousands of leading climate scientists around the world

• Assessment reports updated every 5 years

• IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) issued 2013-14


IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Accounting Protocols

• New protocols – first major update since 2nd Assessment (mid-1990s)

• Models different global temperature scenarios based on “radiative forcing” – that is, the excess heat that is building up in the atmosphere and oceans

• Includes ALL climate “forcers”

o Long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide)

o Short-lived climate pollutants (e.g., black carbon)

o Coolants (e.g., sulfate aerosols)

• Moves away from the GWP-100 – an equivalency factor that drastically understates the near-term potency of methane, and has too much uncertainty to apply to regional short-lived climate pollutants


+W/m2

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

+ °C

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

Lower Paris Temperature Goal

Upper Paris Temperature Goal

Today2.3 W/m2

Today1.2°C

Rising Radiative Forcing Levels Are Driving the Increases in Global Temperature


Radiative forcing reductions needed to stabilize climate at +1.2oC Compared to IPCC’s Business-as-Usual Projections

Target Dates RF reductions from BAU needed to maintain 1.2°C

2025 -1.4 W/m2

2035 -2.0 W/m2

2045 -2.8 W/m2

2055 -3.5 W/m2

2065 -4.3 W/m2

-1.4 W/m2

-2.0 W/m2

-2.8 W/m2

-3.5 W/m2

-4.3 W/m2


Mitigation Options

Options to Achieve -1.4 W/m2

Reduction by 2025 Options to Achieve -2.0 W/m2

Reduction by 2035Options to Achieve -2.8 W/m2

Reduction by 2045

Solar Radiation Management projects

Natural Enhancement (NE): Southern Oceans Sea Salt Cloud Albedo Enhancement

NE Force Reduction = -2.0 W/m2

Other SRM Projects = -2.3 W/m2

Natural Enhancement: Southern Oceans Sea Salt Cloud Albedo Enhancement

Force Reduction = -2.0 W/m2


Combination of SRM and ERM required:

Natural Enhancement: Southern Oceans Sea Salt Cloud Albedo Enhancement Force Reduction = -2.0 W/m2


Cirrus Cloud Cooling would greatly accelerate the release of excess heat being currently trapped by greenhouse gases back into space


Earth Radiation Management projects

Cirrus Cloud Cooling would greatly accelerate the release of excess heat currently being trapped by greenhouse gases back into space.


Cirrus Cloud Cooling would greatly accelerate the release of excess heat currently being trapped by greenhouse gases back into space.


Long-term reductions in annual CO2 emissions

Given long-term atmospheric concentrations and annual emissions, mitigation is essential but will not contribute to +1.2°C stabilization by 2025.

Force Increase = +0.3 W/m2

50% Reduction in Annual Emissions

-25% from avoided emissions from the cooling brought about by early deployment of SRM and ERM.

-25% from combination of projects:• Deployment of non fossil fuel energy systems and energy efficiency• Afforestation/reforestation• 1 billion acres of soil sequestration and grassland albedo enhancement

Force Reduction = Negligible

80% Reduction in Annual Emissions

- 40% from avoided emissions from the cooling brought about by early deployment of SRM and ERM.

-40% from combination of projects:• Deployment of non fossil fuel energy systems and energy efficiency• Afforestation/reforestation• 2 billion acres of soil sequestration and grassland albedo enhancement

Force Reduction = Negligible

Reduction in annual methane emissions

20% reduction in anthropogenic emissions


40% reduction in total biogenic and anthropogenic emissions from the 2005 baseline


Attempt to maintain 40% reduction from the 2005 baseline in the face of potentially sharp increases in total biogenic emissions.


Reduction in urban black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions

Mitigation of 4 key regional hot spots: India, China Central, Central Western Africa, and Brazil must reduce emissions by 20%.

Force Reduction = > -0.5 W/m2





Reduction in annual tropospheric ozone formation

Reduce the Middle East Tropospheric Ozone Hot Spot linked to combined emissions from North America, Europe, and Brazil

Regional Force Reduction = < -1.0 W/m2

Eliminate the Middle East Tropospheric Ozone Hot Spot linked to emissions from North America, Europe, and Brazil.

Regional Force Reduction = -1.0 W/m2

Monitor for resurgence of Middle East Tro-pospheric Ozone Hot Spot linked to emis-sions from North America, Europe, Brazil.

Regional Force Reduction = -1.0 W/m2

The efficacy of each mitigation option in reducing radiative forcing must be evaluated in terms of the

goal of stabilizing climate at 1.2oC.


IPCC Protocols are Integrated with Advanced Life-Cycle Impact Assessment

In order to identify unintended environmental or human health impact trade-offs that might be associated with specific mitigation options.


Move to Standardize the Updated ProtocolsNationally (ANSI) and Internationally (ISO)

Benefits to organizations, governments, project proponents, and stakeholders:

Provides a scientific, actionable framework for project planning and organization footprinting

Focuses mitigation efforts on projects that can most effectively slow the rise in radiative forcing to stabilize climate at 1.2oC

Improves the effectiveness of carbon registries

Creates opportunities for organizations and projects to gain recognition for a broader array of climate mitigation activities

Optimizes expenditures on climate mitigation


Support from Leading Climate Scientists

Drew Shindell- Professor of Climate Sciences at the Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke Univ.- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies- A Coordinating Lead Author of IPCC AR5 2013- Chair, Scientific Advisory Panel, Climate and Clean Air Coalition

I am confident that the physical science basis of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Stabilization Protocols offers a sound foundation for identifying critical needs for further research and refinement of methods while facilitating moving forward with actions necessary for maintaining climate system stability.

I …. look forward to the potential benefits generated from the application of these protocols.

http://www.iisd.ca/climate/ccac/high-level-assembly7/images/8dec/IMG_4339.jpg

http://www.iisd.ca/climate/ccac/high-level-assembly7/images/8dec/IMG_4339.jpg


The Roadmap Forward


The Roadmap Forward to Climate Stabilization at 1.2oC Requires …

• Adoption of the updated IPCC Fifth Assessment Protocols for:

o More accurate climate footprinting

o Assessment of each project’s ability to contribute to climate stabilization, weighing in relative cost-effectiveness and environmental trade-offs.

• Link key projects to funding sources


Formation of the Climate Stabilization Council

Multi-stakeholder body with strong support from leading climate scientists.Its purpose is to identify a robust set of options that can contribute to climate stabilization at +1.2oC by 2025.

1) Scientifically vet each mitigation project and technology, including any potential environmental or human health trade-offs

2) Develop implementation protocols for mitigation projects, including best practice guidance and a mechanism to verify projects achieve stated stability goals

3) Connect potential funders with project proponents

4) Lay the groundwork for COP 22 in 2020 by having effective mitigation projects well underway


Thank you

Stowe Beam

[email protected]

Tobias Schultz

[email protected]

the urgency of upgrading our climate accounting: a roadmap ... · quick introduction to scs 3rd...

Documents