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The UBI Banca Group
Consolidated Results as at 31st December 2014
12th February 2015
This document has been prepared by Unione di Banche Italiane Scpa ("UBI") for informational purposes only and for use in the presentation of
February 2015. It is not permitted to publish, transmit or otherwise reproduce this document, in whole or in part, in any format, to any third
party without the express written consent of UBI and it is not permitted to alter, manipulate, obscure or take out of context any information set
out in the document.
The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein have not been independently verified and are subject to change without
notice. They have been obtained from, or are based upon, sources we believe to be reliable but UBI makes no representation (either
expressed or implied) or warranty on their completeness, timeliness or accuracy. Nothing contained in this document or expressed during the
presentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decision be solely based on this
document.
This document does not constitute a solicitation, offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase, subscribe or sell for any investment
instruments, to effect any transaction, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
This document contains statements that are forward-looking: such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of UBI and
are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of UBI, could cause the
results of UBI to differ materially from those set forth in such forward looking statements.
Under no circumstances will UBI or its affiliates, representatives, directors, officers and employees have any liability whatsoever (in negligence
or otherwise) for any loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with
the document or the above mentioned presentation.
For further information about the UBI Group, please refer to publicly available information, including Annual, Quarterly and Interim Reports.
By receiving this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Please be informed that some of the managers of UBI involved in the drawing up and in the presentation of data contained in this document
either participated in a stock option plan and were therefore assigned stock of the company or possess stock of the bank otherwise acquired.
The disclosure relating to shareholdings of top management is available in the annual reports.
Methodology
The “notes on the reclassified financial statements” contained in the periodic financial reports of the Group may be consulted for a fuller
comprehension of the rules followed in preparing the reclassified financial statements.
Disclaimer
2
3
Executive Summary
0.05 0.06
0.08
FY12 FY13 FY14
PROPOSED DIVIDEND PER SHARE
(€)
Cash dividend always paid through the crisis
Growth in core revenues and operating income in 2014 compared with 2013
Consolidated profit net of non-recurring items of 146.5 mln/€, up 46.2% compared with 100.2 mln/€ in 2013
Consolidated results (stated)
Operating income of 3,409.6 mln/€ (-0.8% YoY)
Net interest income of 1,818.4 mln/€ (+3.9% YoY)
Net fee and commission income of 1,226.6 mln/€ (+3.3% YoY)
Finance result of 199.7 mln/€ (324.6 mln/€ in 2013)
Constantly lower operating expenses down to 2,108.2 mln/€ (-1.6%) - 6th consecutive year of reduced costs
Net operating income of 1,301.4 mln/€ (+0.5%)
Annualised loan loss rate of 108 bps or 929 mln/€ inclusive of the results of the AQR (107 bps or 943 mln/€ in 2013)
New inflows from performing loans to deteriorated status down significantly by 36.2% vs 2013
Profit on continuing operations before tax of €449.1 mln/€ (+57.4%)
A consolidated loss for the Group of 725.8 mln/€ compared with a profit of 250.8 mln/€ in 2013, following approximately
883 mln/€ of net impairment losses on goodwill and intangible assets (no impact on real profitability, +32bps of CET1 following
booking of deferred taxes in income statement on fiscally recognised goodwill, lower PPA (-6 mln/€) starting from 2015)
Approximately 80% of the redundancies planned under the Framework Agreement signed with trade unions on 26th Nov
‘14 (a total of 500 workers) were complete as at 31st Jan ‘15
Loans at 85.6 bln/€, up 0.8% compared with Sept ‘14 – Positive trend confirmed in Jan ‘15
Direct funding at 93.2 bln/€, up 6.1% compared with Sept ‘14
The Group’s solid capital strength is confirmed:
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio “phased in” as at 31st December 2014:
12.33% following update of risk parameters (13% as at 30/09/2014)
Pro forma Common Equity Tier 1 ratio “fully loaded” estimate of 11.5%
(12% as at 30/09/2014)
Basel 3 leverage ratio: “phased in” at 5.78%, “fully loaded” of 5.42%
CET 1
phased
-in
Strength of capital ratios affirmed
4
CET 1
phased
-in
Sept ’14
Risk parameters (PD and LGD) update (-)
Repurchase of minorities in BPCI, BPA,
Carime (-)
Reduction in equity investments (also
disposal of insurance companies) (+)
Deferred tax recognised in income
statement following impairment (+)
Etc...
Dec ’14
CET 1
Fully
loaded
Dec ’14
TOTAL
CAPITAL
RATIO
phased-
in
Dec ’14
11.5%
15.29%*
13.00% 12.33%
* Following very recent more restrictive interpretation of rules by authorities, a subordinated loan amounting to 926 mln/€ was excluded
from calculation of Tier 2 affecting TCR by 150 bps
-67 bps due among other to:
78,175 78,348
77,550 77,214
78,311
76,837
76,179 75,926
75,098 75,129
76,618
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
5
Lending: encouraging evidences from the end of October 2014
12,577 12,659 12,650
12,729 12,788 12,955 12,972
13,089 13,224 13,164
13,049
TOTAL GROSS LENDING EVOLUTION (€ mln, end date)
Total Performing Loans
Total Deteriorated Loans
Turn around point
end -October 2014
(before TLTRO)
Trend confirmed in
January 2015
TLTRO taken in Dec ’14: ~ 3.2 bln/€
As at 6th February ’15:
• Financing requests received: 3.7 bln/€
• Loans either granted or disbursed: 2.3 bln/€
48% in FY14 (vs 38% in FY13)
6
97% 105%
88%
112%
* As at 31 Dec 2014, including NPLs, management accounts
New origination
Reimbursement = 82% 86% 82% 91%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
New origination
Reimbursement
=
Portfolio in run off: 6.5 bln/€ end Sept ‘14, 6.9 bln/€
end Dec ‘13, mainly former Banca 24/7 and Leasing
FOCUS ON MEDIUM / LONG TERM LENDING
(~73% of TOTAL LENDING)
Significant improvement in new inflows in 4Q14, replacement rate 112% in
Network Banks, 64% in Product Companies
2013
2014
FY14 = 101%
FY13 = 86%
TOTAL STOCK *
~62.4 bln/€ (~62.5 bln/€ in Sept ‘14)
64% in 4Q14 (vs 41% in 4Q13)
NETWORK BANKS
44.7 bln/€ (44.4 bln/€ in Sept’ 14)
PRODUCT COMPANIES
11.3 bln/€ (11.6 bln/€ in Sept’ 14)
PORTFOLIO IN RUN OFF
6.4bln/€ (6.5 bln/€ in Sept’ 14)
4Q/3Q14: Direct funding +6.1% and Total Funding +3.1%
Good performance in current accounts (+3.5%) and AUM (+2.4%)
7
* Bonds placed on third party banks networks
~80% of total direct funding
~20% of total direct funding
91.9%
Loan to Deposit ratio
IAS amounts in € bln Dec '13 Sept '14 Dec '14quarterly
% changes
DIRECT FUNDING FROM
ORDINARY CUSTOMERS74.7 74.0 74.0 0.0%
Current accounts and deposits 42.6 42.8 44.3 3.5%
Term deposits, other payables and repos 2.6 2.0 1.8 -12.7%
Securities in issue:
Network banks + UBI 24.1 24.6 23.6 -3.9%
Extra-captive customers* 3.7 3.3 3.3 -0.5%
Other (mainly customer CDs) 1.7 1.3 1.0 -22.8%
DIRECT FUNDING FROM
INSTITUTIONAL CUSTOMERS17.9 13.9 19.3 38.8%
Covered Bonds 7.7 8.9 9.8 10.8%
EMTN 4.2 3.6 3.1 -13.5%
CD and ECP 0.2 0.7 0.8 15.2%
Preferred shares 0.3 0.0 0.0 n.s
Repos with CCG 5.5 0.7 5.5 n.s.
TOTAL DIRECT FUNDING 92.6 87.9 93.2 6.1%
Current accounts & deposits up QoQ and YoY
Retail bonds: lower rates imply a shift towards
current accounts (more liquid) or AUM (more
profitable)
1 bln/€ 10Y Covered Bond issuance in Nov 2014 at a
spread of 30 bps above the 10y midswap rate
AUM 27.8 30.0 30.7 2.4%
Bancassurance 11.7 12.2 12.6 3.0%
AUC 32.1 33.9 32.5 -4.0%
TOTAL INDIRECT FUNDING 71.7 76.1 75.9 -0.3%
TOTAL FUNDING 164.3 164.0 169.1 3.1%
Mutual funds stocks up by around 3.6 bln/€ YoY
In the period Dec’14-Feb’15 SICAV subscribed for
~912.5 mln/€ that will be booked in 1Q15 volumes
8.45 7.30
9.55
2.57
7.23
2015 2016 2017 2018 and following
Matured FY14
FY14
8
Both retail and institutional bonds placed at significantly lower spreads
* Inclusive of original 0.5 bln/€ of private placement with BEI expiring within 2022. Further 2.4 bln/€ retained issue not included
RETAIL BONDS: Maturity Profile
INSTITUTIONAL BONDS: Maturity Profile
(Nominal amounts in € bln, net of bond repurchases)
(Nominal amounts in € bln)
150 126 110 102 84
58
FY12 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Decreasing spreads vs. 6M Euribor (bps)
EMTN COVERED BONDS*
RETAIL BONDS: NEW ISSUANCES
0.97
0.10 0.80
0.16
1.00
0.55 1.80
1.05
0.05
1.05
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and following
4.61
0.03
FY14
2.08
0.05
CDS 5Y SENIOR : UBI vs ITALY
UBI
ITALY
Source: Datastream
Matured FY14
bps
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
31-Oct-08 31-Oct-09 31-Oct-10 31-Oct-11 31-Oct-12 31-Oct-13 31-Oct-14 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The Italian Govies portfolio: after 4Q14 significant maturities, replaced with
lower yield bonds, no relevant maturities are expected in 2015
ITALIAN GOVIES: ~ 93% OF
FINANCIAL ASSETS
17.2 17.5
0.4 0.8
3.1 3.6
Sept '14 Dec '14
HTM
HFT
AFS
20.7 21.9 TOTAL*
(IAS value, € bln)
9
1.8 0.1 1.8 1.9
7.8 5.8
0.2 0.6
3.1
3.6
4Q14 2015 2016 2017 2018-2019 Over
(market values, € bln)
Modified duration of Italian
Govies portfolio: 1.2 years
15.6 17.2
1.7 0.4 3.1 3.1
June '14 Sept '14
HTM
HFT
AFS
ITALIAN GOVIES MATURITY
PROFILE
Matured
* In terms of nominal value, Dec ’14 vs. Sept ’14: +0.4 bln/€
Total eligible assets: nearly 30 bln/€, of which 14 unencumbered
ITALIAN GOVIES: ~ 73% OF ELIGLIBLE ASSETS
~32% of short term deposits
6%
8.3
7.4
14.0Unencumbered
Pledged for TLTRO/LTROs**
Use of eligible assets (€ bln)Data as at 30th January 2015
Eligible Assets: 29.8 bln/€
(net of haircut)Data as at 30th January 2015
73%12%
9%6%
Italian GoviesRetained securitisationsRetained covered bonds*Other (ABACO)
7.4CCG Repos
8.3Outstanding**
TLTRO/LTROsData as at 30th January 2015
� 3.2 bln/€ TLTRO
� 5 bln/€ LTROs expiring on 26 Feb’15
LIQUIDITY RATIOS (as at 31 Dec ‘14)
10* 2.1 bln/€ on the 15 bln/€ Retail Mortgages CB Programme, 1.6 bln/€ on the 5 bln/€ Commercial Mortgages CB Programme (net of haircut) ** Amounts include interest accrued
7.0LTROsReimbursed
� 1 bln/€ on 8 Oct ’14 � 3 bln/€ on 12 Nov ’14� 1 bln/€ on 17 Dec ’14� 2 bln/€ on 29 Jan ’15
� Loan to Deposit ratio = 91.9%
� NSFR and LCR >1 (even in the presence of an ordinary funding structure not based on TLTRO/LTROs support)
LIQUIDITY RATIOS (as at 31 Dec ‘14)
11
Pre-tax Profit: 449 mln/€ in FY14 vs. 285 mln/€ in FY13
Normalised Net Profit: 147 mln/€ in FY14 vs. 100 mln/€ in FY13
PPA allocated line by line
MAIN INCOME STATEMENT ITEMS
Figures in € mlnFY13 FY14 % change 4Q13 3Q14 4Q14
% change
4Q14 vs 4Q13
% change
4Q14 vs 3Q14
Net interest income 1,751 1,818 3.9% 459 468 442 (3.8%) (5.5%)
Net commission income 1,187 1,227 3.3% 299 299 318 6.5% 6.7%
Net result from finance 325 200 (38.5%) 156 14 49 (68.5%) 254.7%
Other income items 175 165 (5.6%) 37 42 42 15.9% 2.1%
Operating income 3,437 3,410 (0.8%) 951 822 852 (10.4%) 3.7%
Staff costs (1,302) (1,302) 0.0% (327) (329) (325) (0.7%) (1.1%)
Other administrative expenses (660) (635) (3.8%) (166) (147) (177) 6.5% 20.2%
Net impairment losses on property, equipment and investment property
and intangible assets(180) (171) (4.9%) (45) (42) (44) (3.2%) 2.9%
Operating expenses (2,142) (2,108) (1.6%) (538) (518) (546) 1.3% 5.3%
Net operating income 1,295 1,301 0.5% 413 303 306 (25.7%) 1.0%
Net impairment losses on loans (943) (929) (1.5%) (366) (197) (302) (17.4%) 53.5%
Net impairment losses on other financial assets and liabilities (48) (9) (81.8%) (25) (0) (6) (74.7%) n.s.
Net provisions for risks and charges (12) (9) (26.7%) 2 (1) (5) n.s. n.s.
Profits (losses) from disposal of equity investments (7) 94 n.s. (8) 0 94 n.s. n.s.
Pre-tax profit from continuing operations 285 449 57.4% 15 105 87 460.8% (17.3%)
Taxes on income for the period from continuing operations 55 (187) n.s. 205 (52) 1 n.s. n.s.
Profits for the period attributable to non-controlling interests (26) (29) 11.7% (8) (9) (4) (47.5%) (56.7%)
Profit/loss for the period attributable to the shareholders of the Parent
before charges for exit incentives and impairments on tangible and
intangible assets
315 233 (25.9%) 213 44 83 (72.7%) (17.3%)
Impairment on tangible and intangible assets
(net of tax and non-controlling interests)(38) (883) n.s. (38) (883) n.s. n.s.
Charges for exit incentives
(net of tax and non-controlling interests)(26) (76) n.s. (26) (76) 193.7% n.s.
Profit for the period 251 -726 n.s. 149 44 (876) n.s. n.s.
Profit for the period NET OF NON-RECURRING ITEMS 100 147 46.2% 26 45 -29 n.s. n.s.
Taxes on income included (all effects in 4Q):
negative effect of additional IRES taxes established by Italian Law Decree no. 133/2013 (€ -33 mln)
positive effect of deductibility, for IRAP purposes, of impairments on loans introduced by the 2014 Stability Law (€+50 mln)
IRAP tax relief on goodwill (€+213 mln), not previously recognised for prudential reasons
See annex 7 for detail on non-recurring items
12
FY14 vs. FY13: differential contribution Yearly evolution
Quarterly evolution
1,751 1,818
FY13 FY14
417 428 446
459 454 454 468
442
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
1,751 1,818
-151 +179 +45 -5
NII
in FY13
Lending Funding NII
In FY14
Financial
activities
-4.3 bln
(€ mln)
(€ mln)
(€ mln)
-1.5 bln Change in
avg.
Volumes
+1.3 bln
+3.9%
One-Off*
Net Interest Income: +3.9% YoY. 4Q14 affected by lower avg. lending
volumes, large amount of Italian Govies maturities and one-off item
468 442 -23
+7 -5 -5
NII
in 3Q14
Lending Funding NII
In 4Q14
Financial
activities
-1 bln
(€ mln)
+0.3 bln +1 bln
One-Off*
Change in avg.
Volumes
4Q14 vs. 3Q14: differential contribution
Jan ‘15
improvement in
volumes and
spreads vs Dec ‘14
* One off booked at the end of the year, following the introduction of a new methodology for the accounting of interest on claims in
Prestitalia
281 280
165 184
-116 -96
19.6 20.9
FY13 FY14
13
Growth of Net Interest Income from business with customers thanks to
widening of customer spread (+19 bps) and notwithstanding lower avg.
lending volumes
*Average period data referred to the whole consolidated Group (Network banks+ Product companies + UBI)
**see note on previous page
NII from BUSINESS
with CUSTOMERS (€ mln) 1,405 1,434
NII from FINANCIAL ASSETS &
INTERBANK EXPOSURE (€ mln)
FY13 FY14
Mark-up
Mark-down
Customer Spread (UBI Banca Group)
Pricing
(average
bps on
stocks*)
Average
interest-
bearing
volumes
(€ bln)
• ~ 80% of NII generated by
business with customers
• good improvement in
customer spread YoY:
‒ Better markdown related to
lower cost of funding
‒ Stable mark up thanks to
substitution of expiring
loans at higher spreads
Net yield on financial
portfolio: improvement due
to lower associated funding
costs Financial asset
average volumes (€ bln)
See annex 8 for details
346 384
FY13 FY14
Including a negative one-
off** component for
-5 mln/€
Euribor 1M 13 14
84 80
87 85
FY13 FY14
Lending
Funding
14
4Q/3Q14: Net Interest Income from business with customers affected by
competition and lower market rates. Lower contribution from financial
assets following expiry of 4.9 bln/€ of IT govies (25% of the whole portfolio)
286 281
187 185
-99 -96
21.0 21.9
3Q14 4Q14
NII from BUSINESS
with CUSTOMERS (€ mln) 368 348
NII from FINANCIAL ASSETS &
INTERBANK EXPOSURE (€ mln)
3Q14 4Q14
Mark-up
Mark-down
Customer Spread (UBI Banca Group)
Pricing
(average
bps on
stocks*)
Average
interest-
bearing
volumes
(€ bln)
• 4Q14 vs. 3Q14 stable
customer spread:
‒ decrease in markup in
4Q14 mainly due to strong
competition in s/t lending in
the first part of the quarter
(-12 bps s/t mark up)
‒ better markdown mainly
due to lower cost of
medium-long term funding
Net yield on financial
portfolio: interest income
lower in 4Q, due to large
amount (4.9 bln/€) of Italian
Govies matured in 4Q14
and bought in FY11
Financial asset
average volumes (€ bln)
See annex 8 for details
100 94
3Q14 4Q14
79 78 84 84
3Q14 4Q14
Lending
Funding
Lending
Funding
Including a negative one-
off component** for
-5 mln/€
Euribor 1M 7 1
*Average period data referred to the whole consolidated Group (Network banks+ Product companies + UBI)
**see note on page 13
15
* See page 5
Focus on moving parts of NII
LENDING FUNDING
Long term loans: ~62.4 bln/€
...of which ~0.5/0.6 bln/€
Deposits: ~47.1 bln/€
Retail bonds: ~23.6 bln/€
Institutional bonds: ~13.7 bln/€ Run-off of a higher priced
portfolio (third parties lending).
No replacement nor repricing
New loans at higher spreads
substituting expiring loans.
Annual change in avg.
spread: +70 bps
Substitution rate ~101% in
network banks*
~7 bln/€ expiring
every year
Limited repricing still
possible
Yearly 1/3 of the stock expires,
replaced now at ~60 bps vs. 6M
EUR (150 bps in FY12 and 126
bps in FY13)
Opportunistic recourse to
Covered Bond, EMTN,
Lower Tier 2...
...of which ~6.3 bln/€
Short term loans: ~23.3 bln/€ Spreads on new loans now
affected by competition
FINANCIAL ASSETS
In 2015 expected stable portfolio (maturities 0.3 bln/€),
but:
4.9 bln/€ (of which 3.1 bln/€ HTM) expired from mid
Nov 2014 replaced by lower yield bonds
opportunistic sales given positive AFS reserve
Expected recomposition of retail
bonds funding vs. deposits or AuM
16
Net Commission Income: +3.3% YoY mainly thanks to good performance of
securities-related business but also to careful management of assets
+3.3%
(€ mln)
(€ mln)
Yearly evolution
Quarterly evolution
Trend affected by volumes of
business
Good performance thanks to
better market conditions and
good performance in AuM
(+10.5% YoY). Still plenty of
room to switch AuC to AuM,
improving mix
See annex 9 for details
All state guaranteed bonds
reimbursed within August 2014*
1,187
1,227
FY13 FY14
299 299 318
4Q13 3Q14 4Q14
Detail of Net Commission Income - yearly evolution
Detail of Net Commission Income - quarterly evolution
4Q13 3Q14
Guarantees (on State Guaranty Bonds) (12) (3) - n.s. n.s.
Banking Services Commissions 163 151 161 -1.0% 7.0%
Securities Management, Trading &
Advisory Services**148 151 157 6.2% 4.4%
Total Net Commission Income 299 299 318 6.5% 6.7%
4Q14 vs4Q13 3Q14 4Q14mln/€
+6.7%
mln/€ FY13 FY14 % change
Guarantees (on State Guaranty Bonds) (47) (18) -60.5%
Banking Services Commissions 645 615 -4.8%
Total Net Commission Income 1,187 1,227 3.3%
Securities Management, Trading &
Advisory Services**588 630 7.2%
* First reimbursement 3 bln/€ value 7th March ’14 and remaining 3 bln/€ value 7th August ’14
** Includes FX negotiations. Performance fees: 17 mln/€ in FY14 (14.2 mln/€ in FY13)
17
AuM shows positive evolution both YoY and QoQ
Dec ‘13
51%
25%
12%
5% 7%
Bond Balanced Equity Flexible Cash
bln/€ Dec '13 Sept '14 Dec '14% change
vs Dec '13
% change
vs Sept '14
AuM 27.8 30.0 30.7 10.4% 2.5%
Bancassurance 11.7 12.2 12.6 7.8% 3.0%
AuC 32.1 33.9 32.5 1.4% -4.0%
Total Indirect Funding 71.7 76.1 75.9 5.8% -0.3%
51%
25%
13%
5% 6%
Sept ‘14 Dec ‘14
UBI Pramerica SGR
AUM
Composition
Indirect Funding
Evolution
56%
17%
13%
4%
10%
18
* PPA effect amounted to € 20 mln in FY13 and to approx. € 21 mln in FY14
Cost evolution continues to be favourable (Stated amounts)
mln/€ FY13 FY14 % change
Staff cost 1,302 1,302 0.0%
Other Admin. Expenses 660 635 -3.8%
D&A (including PPA*) 180 171 -4.9%
Total operating costs 2,142 2,108 -1.6%
Cost control efforts to
continue in 2015...
Y
E
A
R
L
Y
Q
U
A
R
T
E
R
L
Y
mln/€ 4Q14 4Q13 3Q14
Staff cost 325 327 -0.7% 329 -1.1%
Other Admin. Expenses 177 166 6.5% 147 20.2%
D&A (including PPA*) 44 45 -3.2% 42 2.9%
Total operating costs 546 538 1.3% 518 5.3%
% change % change
+19.1
FY13 FY14
1,301.7 1,301.8
Previous
National
Labour
Contract
inertial
increase
-19.0
4Q14 / 3Q14 increase mainly due to:
usual seasonality
+8.1 mln/€ referring to new IT projects implementations
relating to Digital Bank project, merger between IW Bank and
UBI Private Investment, stabilisation and replacement of the
Prestitalia IT system, interventions to support single European
banking supervision regulations, a project to improve office
automation tools, etc.).
IT Projects expenses in 2014: 85.5 mln/€ vs 75.3 mln/€ in 2013
Headcounts
exit /
substitution
and relative
retribution
evolution
+9.4
Incentives,
benefits,
variable
retribution,
social hour
and other
Detail of STAFF COSTS - yearly evolution
1,320.8 -9.4
Sale of
BDG and
closing
of UBI
Singapore
Detail of OTHER ADMIN. EXPENSES - quarterly evolution
STAFF COSTS OTHER ADM. EXPENSES
STAFF HEADCOUNTS NUMBER OF DOMESTIC BRANCHES
Confirmed strong track record in cost management (Amounts net of non-recurring items)
(€ mln, net of PPA)
(€ mln) (€ mln, net of PPA)
TOTAL OPERATING COSTS
Note: staff headcounts at the end of the period
2,599 2,142
2,104
FY07 FY13 FY14
1,590 1,302
1,302
FY07 FY13 FY14
21,700
18,337
18,132
1st Apr '07 Dec '13 Dec '14
765 660 633
FY07 FY13 FY14
1,970
1,725
1,670
1st Apr '07 Dec '13 Dec '14
19
-3.2%
-1.7%
= -4.0%
-1.1%
On 26 Nov ‘14
Framework Agreement
signed with Trade
Unions
500 staff reductions
(o/w 80% already
completed within Jan
‘15) and flexibility in
working hours
4Q14 One-off cost:
111.5 mln/€ gross
(76.3 mln/€ net)
Cost savings at
regime:
~50 mln/€ gross
starting from 2015
helping to offset
possible increases
coming from New
National Labour
Contract
Analytical Provisioning 366 539
o/w Credit File Review Perimeter 199 193
o/w Projection of Findings Perimeter 167 346
Collective Provisioning 23 70
TOTAL PROVISIONING 390 609
LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS (€ mln)
FY13 FY14
LLPs guidance delivered: 929 mln/€ vs. 943 mln/€ in FY13, including
adjustments to enlarged AQR perimeter of 609 mln/€ vs. 390 mln/€ requested
FY14 Cost of credit at 108 bps (107 bps in FY13)
A
Q
R
P
E
R
I
M
E
T
E
R
AQR
REQUEST
UBI LLPs ON
PORTFOLIO
IN SCOPE
€/mln
Net analytical Impairments 908 902
o/w writebacks 72 93
Net collective impairments 35 26
TOTAL IMPAIRMENTS 943 929
20
LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS (€ mln) – quarterly evolution
158
199
226
230
193
197
366
302
FY13
FY14
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
929
943
Total FY
+26% +2% +2% -17% Change % -1.5%
Those provisions do not only
concern positions subject to a
specific request for an addition to
them*, but also positions that did
not require adjustments when the
AQR was carried out, but which
following events that occurred in
2014 were added to in compliance
with internal policies
Relating to the annual update of the
risk parameters used in the
advanced methods for calculating
capital requirements.
These parameters reflect the current
recession phase of the business cycle
because they are now:
- updated to include trends
observed up to the end of 2013;
- calibrated over a historical period
of full crisis (the last 7 years for
the corporate segment and the last
5 years for the retail segment)
* Carried out totally, partially or not at all in view of changes occurring in those positions during 2014 and of documentary
evidence acquired
8,589
10,958
12,674 13,089
13,049
Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Sept'14 Dec '14
NET DETERIORATED LOAN STOCKS (€ mln)
GROSS DETERIORATED LOAN STOCKS (€ mln)
21
6,280
8,105
9,312 9,448 9,508
Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Sep' 14 Dec '14
+14.9%
+1.5%
Stock of deteriorated loans stabilising in 2014...
+15.7%
+3.0%
+1.7 bln/€ +0.4 bln/€ +1.2 bln/€
+0.2bln/€
+27.6%
+2.4 bln/€
+29.1%
+1.8 bln/€
DISPOSALS OF HIGHLY PROVISIONED POSITIONS
(NPLs) IN THE LAST 4 YEARS
2014: 304 mln/€* covered at ~85%
2013: 103 mln/€ covered at ~93%
2012: 108 mln/€ covered at ~96%
2011: 219 mln/€ covered at ~98.5%
COVERAGE Dec '13 Sept '14 Dec '14
Performing loans 0.61% 0.56% 0.63%
Total deteriorated loans 26.5% 27.8% 27.1%
..including write-offs 36.3% 37.8% 37.1%
NPLs (sofferenze) 41.6% 40.5% 38.6%
..including write-offs 56.0% 55.0% 53.4%
Impaired loans (incagli) 15.1% 16.1% 16.3%
Restructured loans 13.9% 16.7% 18.5%
Past due loans 2.8% 4.5% 4.4%
-0.3%
+0.6%
Dec ’14 pro-forma
NPLs disposal
40.6%
55.2%
28.5%
38.7%
NPLs Dec ‘14 coverage affected by disposal, higher level
of secured inflows and increase in stock write-offs
* Of which 89 mln/€ in 2Q14 and 215 mln/€ in 4Q14
22
2,821
4,307 4,124
2,632
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
TOTAL INFLOWS FROM PERFORMING TO
DETERIORATED LOANS (€/mln)
-36.2%
...benefitting from lower inflows from performing loans...
...as a consequence of a better risk profile...
PERFORMING LOAN PORTFOLIO*: RISK PROFILE
December 2014 vs December 2013
Low Risk 71% vs 67.2% in Dec ’13
High risk 5.5% vs 6.4% in Dec ’13
Unrated 5.8% vs 5.7% in Dec ’13
* Perimeter: Network Banks + UBI Banca (essentially former Banca 24/7 activities)
Medium Risk 17.7% vs 20.7% in Dec ’13
23
Outlook
In 2015 net interest income will be affected by a lower contribution from the securities portfolio,
mainly as a result of positions that matured in the held-to-maturity portfolio in the last months of
2014. A recovery in volumes of business with customers should make it possible to increase net
interest income from business with customers, even in the presence of strong competition on pricing,
and help offset the lower contribution forecast from the securities portfolio
Net fee and commission income should benefit from positive trends expected for assets under
management and insurance and possible growth in fees and commissions associated with lending
A further decrease in sovereign debt risk could allow positive results to be achieved for trading and
hedging activity again in 2015
The recent trade union agreement will help compensate for the automatic increases in staff costs, the
overall performance of which will in any case depend on the final outcome of the renewal of the
national trade union contract
The downwards trend for other administrative expenses is forecast to continue
The slowdown in the pace of new defaulted loans recorded in 2014 is expected to continue in 2015
and could favour an improvement in loan losses compared with 2014
24
Annexes
Main Reclassified Balance Sheet Items
25
Annex 1
* Goodwill impairment in 2014
** Including € 3.2 bln TLTRO and € 7 bln LTRO
Financial assets (AFS, HFT, FV, HTM) 21,841 22,617 23,746 8.7% 5.0%
Loans to customers 88,421 84,947 85,644 -3.1% 0.8%
Property, equipment and investment property 1,798 1,741 1,729 -3.9% -0.7%
Intangible assets 2,919 2,883 1,777 -39.1% -38.4%
of which: goodwill* 2,512 2,512 1,465 -41.7% -41.7%
Tax assets 2,833 2,567 2,992 5.6% 16.5%
Other assets 931 778 931 0.0% 19.7%
Total assets 124,242 120,539 121,787 -2.0% 1.0%
Net interbank position** 10,888 12,259 9,952 -8.6% -18.8%
Due to customers 50,702 45,582 51,617 1.8% 13.2%
Securities issued 41,902 42,272 41,590 -0.7% -1.6%
Tax liabilities 756 732 630 -16.7% -13.9%
Net worth attributable to the Parent 10,089 10,651 10,530 4.4% -1.1%
Non-controlling interests 842 831 555 -34.1% -33.2%
Profit for the period 251 150 (726) n.s. n.s
Total liabilities and equity 124,242 120,539 121,787 -2.0% 1.0%
MAIN ASSETS ITEMSFigures in millions of euro
% annual
change
% quarterly
change30.09.2014 31.12.201431.12.2013
MAIN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY ITEMSFigures in millions of euro
% quarterly
change31.12.2013
% annual
change30.09.2014 31.12.2014
26
Annex 2 Capital Ratios (Phased in, Basel 3) as at Dec‘14:
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio at 12.33%, Total Capital Ratio at 15.29%
13.00%
18.09%
12.33% 15.29%
Common Equity Tier 1
Total Capital Ratio
Sept '14 Dec '14
mln/€ Sept '14 Dec '14
Risk weighted assets 59,291.5 61,762.6
Total prudential requirements
Credit risk 4,348.4 4,572.7
CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) risk 11.5 14.7
Market risk 49.6 56.5
Operational risk 333.8 297.1
mln/€ Sept '14 Dec '14
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital
(before filters and transitional provisions)8,021.7 8,029.9
Transitional provisions (minority interest) 386.8 258.1
Transitional provisions (AFS Reserves) -103.2 -92.5
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital filters -2.1 -1.9
Italian Govies filters -103.3 -60.0
Common Equity Tier 1
(after filters)8,199.8 8,133.6
Common Equity Tier 1 regulatory adjustments: negative elements
for deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses -490.6 -518.3
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1) 7,709.2 7,615.3
Additional Tier 1 before deductions 39.0 37.6
Additional Tier 1 regulatory adjustments: negative elements for
deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses -39.0 -37.6
Additional Tier 1 - -
Tier 1 Capital 7,709.2 7,615.3
Tier 2 Capital before transitional provisions 3,347.7 2,187.8
Tier 2 instruments grandfathering 6.8 -
Tier 2 Capital after transitional provisions 3,354.5 2,187.8
Tier 2 capital regulatory adjustments -339.0 -361.4
of which: negative elements for deduction excess of expected
losses over impairment losses -353.1 -370.6
Tier 2 Capital 3,015.4 1,826.3
TOTAL OWN FUNDS 10,724.6 9,441.6
Dec ‘14 ratios:
CET1 affected by update of risk parameters to end 2013 and
benefits from DT release following impairment of goodwill
TCR affected by a recent more restrictive interpretation given
by Authorities on the qualifications for inclusion in the
regulatory capital of subordinated liabilities issued after
31/12/2011, with an amortisation schedule which starts to run
before five years since issuance, which are totally excluded
from the calculation of own funds. The UBI Group has issued
one single subordinated bond for approximately 926 mln/€
with an impact of 150 bps on the total capital ratio
* Following the merger of Banca 24/7 in UBI Banca, effective July 2012, UBI Banca is managing the remaining stock of non captive mortgages and personal
and special purpose loans. Prestitalia is managing the “salary backed loan” operations
** Minor companies, IAS adjustments, loans not segmented to commercial portfolios and intercompany eliminations
*** Repos with CCG for the investment of liquidity made by UBI Banca and higher margins on liability repos
Total Lending up by 0.8% vs Sept ‘14
Small business: turnover up to €15 mln
Core Corporate: turnover from €15 to €250 mln
Large Corporate: turnover > €250 mln
27
€ bln, end date 31 Dec '13 30 Sept '14 31 Dec '14 changes
vs Dec '13
changes
vs Sept '14
44.0 42.8 42.3 -3.9% -1.0%
of which: Private Customers 21.2 21.2 21.2 -0.1% 0.1%
Small business 14.4 14.0 13.8 -3.5% -1.3%
UBI Banca (former Banca 24/7)* 6.0 5.5 5.4 -11.1% -2.5%
Prestitalia 2.4 2.1 1.9 -21.4% -6.8%
28.0 26.9 27.1 -3.1% 0.6%
of which: Core corporate 14.7 14.2 14.1 -3.5% -0.1%
Large corporate 8.0 7.8 8.1 0.9% 3.5%
UBI Banca (former Centrobanca) 5.3 5.0 4.9 -8.0% -1.9%
0.7 0.7 0.8 4.6% 5.7%
15.7 14.5 15.4 -1.4% 6.4%
of which: UBI Leasing 7.4 7.0 6.9 -6.7% -1.4%
UBI Factor 2.3 2.0 2.0 -11.6% 1.4%
UBI Banca*** 1.4 0.7 1.6 14.4% n.s.
88.4 84.9 85.6 -3.1% 0.8%Total lending
Retail
Corporate
Private
Other**
Annex 3
Asset Quality Details
28
* As a percentage of total loans
Annex 4
LOANS TO CUSTOMERS - AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2014
GROSS EXPOSURE IMPAIRMENT
LOSSES € mln
NPLs (Sofferenze) 7.31% 2,527
IMPAIRED LOANS (Incagli) 5.65% 827
RESTRUCTURED LOANS 0.98% 163
PAST DUE 0.61% 24
TOTAL DETERIORATED LOANS 14.55% 3,541
€ mln %*
CARRYING AMOUNT
4.70% 4,025 38.56%
4.95% 4,237 16.33%
0.84% 717 18.51%
0.61% 529 4.39%
11.10% 9,508 27.13%
COVERAGE
RATIO %
TOTAL PERFORMING LOANS 85.45% 482 88.90% 76,136 0.63%
TOTAL LOANS TO CUSTOMERS 100% 4,023 100% 85,644 4.49%
6,551
880
554
13,049
76,618
89,667
€ mln %*
5,064
LOANS TO CUSTOMERS - AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2014
GROSS EXPOSURE IMPAIRMENT
LOSSES € mln
NPLs (Sofferenze) 7.39% 2,665
IMPAIRED LOANS (Incagli) 5.57% 799
RESTRUCTURED LOANS 0.98% 146
PAST DUE 0.76% 30
TOTAL DETERIORATED LOANS 14.70% 3,640
€ mln %*
CARRYING AMOUNT
4.60% 3,911 40.53%
4.90% 4,162 16.11%
0.86% 729 16.73%
0.76% 647 4.49%
11.12% 9,448 27.82%
COVERAGE
RATIO %
TOTAL PERFORMING LOANS 85.30% 428 88.88% 75,498 0.56%
TOTAL LOANS TO CUSTOMERS 100% 4,069 100% 84,947 4.57%
6,576
875
677
13,089
75,926
89,016
€ mln %*
4,961
29
Other key elements to assess the Group loan portfolio
December 2014
Loan To Value* (Network banks + UBI):
Performing loans:
Retail: 45.6% (44.8% in Dec ’13)
Corporate: 39.8% (42.1% in Dec ‘13)
Impaired Loans:
Retail: 55.6% (57.8% in Dec ’13)
Corporate: 49.4% (51.9% in Dec ‘13)
% of Collateralised (real estate) Positions*:
Total portfolio: > 60% (of which NPLs and Impaired > 65%)
* Arithmetic mean
Annex 5
30
Securities Portfolio Composition*
Annex 6
* Analysis refers to a portfolio which excludes participations, some smaller portfolios and derivatives. Management accounts,
positions determined on trade date
** Fixed rate securities with asset swaps are considered as floating rate securities; securities in asset swap represent 97% of
floating rate securities as at 31st December 2014
Composition of the portfolio 31.12.2013 30.09.2014 31.12.2014
Government bonds 93.3% 94.8% 95.6%
Corporate bonds (mainly bank issues) 4.6% 4.4% 3.3%
Hedge funds 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Funds and shares 1.5% 0.3% 0.6%
Floating rate** 20.4% 52.1% 57.9%
Fixed rate 74.5% 44.1% 38.2%
Structured securities 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%
Shares, funds, convertible bonds 2.2% 0.9% 1.1%
Securities in euro 99.7% 99.7% 99.7%
Securites of the euro area 99.6% 99.7% 99.9%
USA securities 0.0% 0.00% 0.00%
Investment grade 99.1% 98.7% 99.4%
Average rating Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
BY TYPE OF
FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENT
BY FINANCIAL
PROFILE
BY CURRENCY
BY GEOGRAPHICAL
DISTRIBUTION
BY RATINGS (BONDS)
FY13 and FY14 P&L non-recurring items: detail
31
Post tax contribution of non-recurring items to net profit of the period (in € mln)
Annex 7
FY13 FY14
Net stated profit
Net profit excluding non-recurring items
250.8
100.2
Recognition of IRAP* DTA on tax relief on goodwill
Disposal of equity stakes
Profit on the repurchase of financial liabilities
(subordinated EMTN)
Profit on Bank of Italy stake
Net impairment losses on AFS financial assets
Modification of 2013 IRES** tax rate
Net impairment losses on tangible and intangible
assets
Leaving incentives
Intervention by the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund
212.6
47.6
20.5
(20.7)
(37.5)
(37.7)
(26.0)
(11.4)
3.2
Net stated profit
Net profit excluding non-recurring items
(725.8)
146.5
Disposal of equity stakes
Leaving incentives
IT write off
92.5
(76.3)
(2.6)
(882.7)
Integration costs BPI-IW Bank (1.0)
Net impairment losses on tangible and intangible
assets
* IRAP = regional production tax
** IRES = corporate income tax
Profit on the disposal of real estate properties 6.5
Intervention by the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund (0.4)
Net impairment losses on AFS financial assets (4.4)
Change in the substitute tax on the valuation of profit
participation stakes in the Bank of Italy (3.8)
32
Net Interest Income - Customer Spread Details
* Average period data referred to the whole consolidated Group (Network banks+ Product companies + UBI), unless otherwise stated
1Q14 and 2Q14 values restated for consistency
Annex 8
CUSTOMER SPREADS
in bps on avg. STOCK* 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
1M Euribor 23 23 7 1
Mark up vs 1M Euribor 278 277 286 281
Short term 361 348 347 335
Medium-long term 253 257 268 266
Mark down vs 1M Euribor -98 -95 -99 -96
Sight deposits -8 -7 -19 -20
Term deposits -191 -163 -130 -125
Retail bonds -146 -146 -148 -142
Institutional bonds -186 -183 -191 -189
UBI Group - Customer spread 180 182 187 185
of which
UBI Network Banks cust. spread 197 199 204 203
33 * Includes FX negotiations
Net Commission Income Details
Annex 9
Net Commission Income (€ mln) FY13 FY14% FY14 vs.
FY13
Guarantees (on State guaranty bonds) (46.5) (18.4) -60.5%
BANKING RELATED COMMISSIONS 645.3 614.6 -4.8%
of which:
Guarantees (banking activity) 47.6 48.8 2.6%
Collection and payment services 127.3 125.8 -1.2%
Services for factoring transactions 23.2 18.7 -19.3%
Current accounts management 205.5 204.0 -0.7%
Other services 241.8 217.3 -10.1%
MANAGEMENT, TRADING & ADVISORY
SERVICES*588.3 630.4 7.2%
of which:
Portfolio management 252.3 266.8 5.7%
Placement of securities 147.3 165.5 12.3%
Third party services distribution 153.4 171.9 12.0%
TOTAL 1,187.1 1,226.6 3.3%
FY14 vs. FY07-19.0%
An impressive cost management story strongly committ ed to efficiency(Amounts net of non-recurring items)
(€ mln, net of PPA)
TOTAL OPERATING COSTS
1,294 1,305 1,316 1,287 1,244 1,228 1,222 1,209 1,216 1,198
1,137 1,128 1,072 1,070 1,044 1,060
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H
Annex 10
STAFF COSTS OTHER ADM. EXPENSES
-18.1% -17.2%
(€ mln) (€ mln, net of PPA)FY14 vs. FY07FY14 vs. FY07 FY14 vs. FY07FY14 vs. FY07
805 785 811
774 745
720 714 704 738
713 689 685
646 655 648 654
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
369 396
372 376 383 387 385 385 356 362 352 350
335 325 311 322
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
21,700 21,55020,680 20,926
20,285 20,26019,699 19,546 19,407 19,306 19,088
18,485 18,337 18,43818,132
Apr June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1,970 1,929 1,944 1,939 1,9551,884 1,892 1,877 1,875
1,8011,727 1,726 1,725
1,673 1,670
Apr June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
STAFF HEADCOUNTS
-16.4%
NUMBER OF DOMESTIC BRANCHES
-15.2%
December 2014 vs. April 2007 December 2014 vs. April 2007
Note: staff headcounts at the end of the period34