The Two-Step Flow of Information

MCOM 302: Opinion Writing

Paul Lazarsfeld & His Empirical Research

In 1948, Paul Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet published The People's Choice –a paper analyzing the voters’ decision-making processes during a 1940 presidential election campaign. During the 1940 presidential election campaign-Franklin Roosevelt vs Wendell WillkieDesigned and conducted the most elaborate field experiment ever conducted.Erie County in OhioMore than 3000 people selected & 600 were selected to be in a panel that was interviewed seven times-once every month from May until November

• Focused attention on changes in voting decisions and created labels for each.– Early deciders –chose a candidate in May & never

changed during the entire campaign– Waverers-chose a candidate, then were undecided or

switched to another candidate, but in the end they voted for their first choice.

– Converts-chose one candidate but then voted for his opponent.

– Crystallizers-had not chosen a candidate in May but made a choice by November.

• Interview– Detailed questionnaire that dealt with exposure to

specific mass media content such as candidate speeches.

• Results contracted Mass Society Theory.– 53% of the voters were early deciders– 28% were crystallizers– 15% were waverers– 8% were converts– He couldn’t find any evidence that media played an

important role in influencing the crystallizers, the waverers, or the converts

– Voters said that they had been influenced by other people.

• Many were politically apathetic• No clear-cut voting decisions b/c of low interest

• Lazarsfeld argued that the most important influence of mass media was to reinforce a vote choice that had already been made.

• If media weren’t directly influencing voting decisions, what was their role?– Some of the hardcore early deciders were the heaviest

users of media & they even made a point of seeking out and listening to opposition speeches.

– The people who made the least use of media were most likely to report that they relied on others for help in making a voting decision.

– Opinion Leaders (gate-keepers)• Screening information and only passing on items that would

help others share their views

– Opinion Followers• Those who turned to opinion leaders for advice

Mass Media

Opinion Leaders

• Tended to be found at all levels of society

• Were much like the people they led

• Usually had a little more of education, money, status than follower

• Knew more than others in the group

• Often had a strategic location where they met lots of people

• Have a following of people whom they can influence• Are positivists - beware of negativists• Are activists - doing something• Are involved - they may not be the people you expect• Have credibility - a combination of trust and expertise

Types of Opinion Leaders

• Role Models - People already engaging in the desired behavior

• Opinion Leaders - People who have no vested interest in your project's outcome, but whose expertise is relied on

• Power Leaders - People, who are rarely opinion leaders, yet hold positions of authority in the community, i.e. elected officials

• Cheerleaders - People in the community who are not seen as experts but whose enthusiasm can be influential

• Celebrities - People, who can, just by their position, attract attention

Limitations in the Lazarsfeld Model

1. Survey can’t measure how people actually use media on a day-to-day basis

2. Media use underestimation by more educated people, and overestimation by less educated people

3. Surveys are a very expensive and cumbersome way to study people’s use of specific media such as their reading of certain news stories or their viewing of specific television programs.

4. The research design and data analysis procedures are inherently conservative in assessing the media’s power

5. Controlling for social and demographic variables

6. Subsequent research on the two-step flow has produced highly contradictory findings.

1. Who do you regularly turn to for information?

2. Whose opinion do you regard as able to change your own?

3. Have you yourself changed anybody’s opinions about anything?

4. Who are your personal ‘opinion leaders’?