The Two Parties Today

Third parties tomorrow?

PAO PIE PIG

Parties as organizations

Number of civil servants and federal civilian employees

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2000

Number of employees Number of civil servants

PAO PIE PIG

Parties as organizations

Parties in the electorate

Increasing number of “Independents”?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000

strong dems strong reeps Independents

Stable number of partisans

0

20

40

60

80

100

1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000

Independents Partisans

PAO PIE PIG

Parties as organizations

Parties in the electorate

Parties in government

President’s Average Legislative Success

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

PRES PARTY CONTROLS CONGRESS PRES PARTY IN MINORITY

Can an “outsider” to the political system become

President of the United States?

3rd Party Candidates with 5% of PVYear Name Party Percent

1848 Van Buren Free Soil 10%

1856 Fillmore Whig-American 21%

1860 Breckinridge Southern Democrat 18%

1860 Bell Constitutional Union 12%

1892 Weaver Populist 8%

1912 TR Progressive 27%

1924 LaFollette Progressive 16%

1968 Wallace Amer. Independent 13%

1980 Anderson Independent 6%

1992 Perot Reform 19%

1996 Perot Reform 8%

19th vs. 20th Century 3rd Party Candidates

19th Century

Issue-based parties/

Grass roots parties

Candidates join existing movement

20th Century

Personality-based campaigns

Parties built around personalities and personal crusades

Barriers to Third Party Success

• Single member district, plurality system

• Electoral College

8 minor party candidates have won Electoral Votes…

• 1832: Anti Masonic party, 7EV• 1856: Know-Nothing Party, 8 EV• 1860: Constitutional Union Party, 39 EV• 1892: Populist Party, 22 EV• 1912: Progressive Party, 88 EV• 1924: Progressive Party, 13 EV• 1948: Dixiecrat Party, 39 EV (2% of PV!)• 1968: American Independent Party, 46 EV

Barriers to Third Party Success

• Single member district, plurality system• Electoral College• Ballot Access Restrictions• Campaign Finance Laws• Hard to raise money• Hard to get media attention• Hard to recruit strong candidates• Most voters are loyal to a party

Significant Nader votes, 2000

State (ev) Nader % of vote % of votes separating Bush and Gore

FL (25) 1.63% .01%

NM (5) 3.55% .06%

IA (7) 2.23% .32%

OR (7) 5.04% .44%

WI (11) 3.62% .22%