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The

Truth Is

Out

There

American History

Since 1877

The Dark Carnival

The Dark Carnival

1962: Something

Wicked This Way

Comes

2004: Ray

Bradbury (1920-

2012) was awarded

the National Medal

of Arts

The Dark CarnivalCooger and Dark’s

Pandemonium Shadow

Show

– … What if someone discovers your secret dream … And what if that person suddenly makes your dream come true – before you learn the price you have to pay? …

The Dark CarnivalDealt with an issue which had largely disappeared from the American conversation by 1939

Dorothy and mind cure (Frank Baum)

The irony and/or contradiction at the heart of the twentieth-century (violence and utopianism)

A “war to end war”; the League of Nations; the “small world”; the “Star Trek”Federation; world brotherhood

The Dark CarnivalBut … the conversation about “dark things” was still there

Steven King (b1947), Salem’s Lot (1973); the Stand (1978); you can see the problem in the film version of the Shining (book 1977; movie 1980)

Ok in church but not in public

The Dark CarnivalPeter Straub (b1943), Julia (1975): Ghost Story (1979); Shadowland (1980)– … Tom left the chair

and walked down the aisle toward the empty stage. What was it Collins had said about wizards, in the story about the sparrows? They gave you what you asked for, but they made you pay for it …

The Dark CarnivalSuddenly (in 1982) these concerns reappeared in American politics

1982 (June 8): President Ronald Reagan gave a speech to the House of Commons

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We're approaching the end of a bloody century plagued by a terrible political invention -- totalitarianism …

If history teaches anything, it teaches self-delusion in the face of unpleasant facts is folly.

…What then, is our course? Must civilization perish in a hail of fiery atoms? Must freedom wither in a quiet, deadening accommodation with totalitarian evil?

The Dark CarnivalThe 1980 election was a

referendum on Jimmy Carter

– Gas lines

– Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

(part of a general extension of

Soviet power after 1974)

– Iranian hostage crisis

– Abolished the Foreign

Intelligence Advisory Board

The Dark CarnivalStagflation: 1978-80; Economic growth –4.8 to 2.5 to .5; Inflation – 7.5% to 11.3% to 13.5%; unemployment 9%

The misery index: 13% satisfied

Elite opinion thought this decline could not be reversed (the Japanese)

Carter referred to Vietnam as a war of “moral poverty”; pardoned all draft evaders; and lectured about the “inordinate fear of communism”

The Dark CarnivalAmong the elites, a general sense of “malaise”1980: Reagan elected with 50.75% of the vote (Carter held only 5 states and DC)– Attracted by his

optimism

The Dark CarnivalIn domestic policy: Reagan suggested “economic bill of rights”:

– Contrast with FDR in 1944 (health care, housing, food); for Reagan it wasn’t what government could take from other people but limits on government claims against fellow citizens

– Proposed a balanced budget; a line item veto; a two-thirds Congressional majority for tax increases; a constitutional spending limit; prohibition on wage and price controls

– Got nowhere with the Democratic Congress

The Dark CarnivalThese policy ideas were based on Reagan’s sense that the Federal Government was showing “signs of having grown beyond the consent of the governed”; it was now about Constitutional principles; the government was now exercising powers not found in the Constitution

“It is no coincidence that our present troubles … result from the unnecessary and excessive growth of government.”

The Dark CarnivalIn economic policy he kept Paul Volker as

head of the Federal Reserve; pursued a

hard money policy to combat inflation,

and set the stage for the economic

prosperity inherited by President Clinton.

Pursued a hard money policy. Raised

interest rates to 20%.

The Federal Debt was stable by 1983 and

inflation decreased from 14.8% (1980) to

3% in 1983.

The Dark CarnivalThere was also a tax cut (Kemp-

Roth) in 1981 to bring the middle-

class tax rate from 37 to 23%. The

top rate was also lowered from 70 to

50%.

Kemp-Roth was modeled after the

tax cut proposed by John Kennedy

in 1962 and enacted after his death.

By 1984, the economy had changed.

The Dark CarnivalThe economy grew: 7.8% in 1983 and averaged 4.5% for the rest of Reagan’s Presidency.

Sixteen million jobs were created; a 17.7% gain. (Only Clinton did a bit better.) Income inequality decreased. The bottom fifth increased 50% and those in the middle fifth increased 36%. Designed on the historical precedent of Kennedy’s tax cut in 1962 (enacted after his death).

Deficits did increase because of defense spending (peace through strength) and payments on the national debt.

By the time Reagan left office his approval was 59% (up from the 13% for Carter).

But, with all of that there was something that most people did not notice at the time.

The Dark Carnival… I believe we live now at a turning point … We are witnessing today a great revolutionary crisis, a crisis where the demands of the economic order are conflicting directly with those of the political order. But the crisis is happening not in the free, non-Marxist West but in the home of Marxism- Leninism, the Soviet Union. It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history …

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November 9, 1989

(about 7 pm)

–Gunter Schabowski

»A press conference

»“A small mistake”

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❖Reply to an Italian journalist about a draft for procedures to obtain visas to visit the West

»No restrictions

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–In one night East Germany

was swept away (built wall

in 1961)

–The “cold war” ended with

a party

–The “Party is basically

kaput”

The Dark CarnivalSo where did this change come

from? Was Reagan simply lucky?

The CIA never figured out that the

command economy of the Soviet

Union didn’t work; as late as 1989,

thought the Soviet GNP was 2.8

trillion and growing – larger than

Japan and the two Germanys

combined; didn’t realize their

numbers were literally nonsense

The Dark CarnivalMost “experts” and the foreign policy

community thought he was crazy

Reagan came to the Presidency with a

very different idea and set of instincts –

did not accept the divided world

established at Yalta

So, where did this unexpected change

come from?

The answer comes in three parts

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The Great Terror

The Gulag

The Dark CarnivalRobert Conquest (1917-215)– 1968: The Great Terror; 1991

Stalin – The first open window into

Stalin’s state; In 1937 Stalin and Molotov had signed 3,167 death warrants and then gone to the movies

– 1986: Harvest of Sorrow; Holdomor – the terror famine in the Ukraine in the winter 1932-33; About 20 human beings were lost not for every word, but for every letter in this book (2.5-7.5 million were murdered)

A revised edition of the Great Terror in 1990; the publisher wanted a new title and Conquest’s friend (Kingsley Amis) suggested – I told you so, you F … fools

The Dark CarnivalConquest’s work demolished the idea that the Soviet regime was simply a variant of the European experience and would eventually converge toward Western norms (Kennan’s warning)

The regime was based upon the morals founded by Lenin and that produced the secret police and the gulag.

The Dark Carnival1974: A book was

published in the West

(Paris). Its author had

been expelled from the

Soviet Union

1974-77: The Gulag

Archipelago (three

volumes)

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

(1918-2008)

The Dark CarnivalKept off the Voice of America and President Ford’s “schedule” was to busy to see him in the White House; did not want to offend the Soviets

1978 (June 8): Commencement Address at Harvard; “A World Split Apart”“The Western World has lost its civil courage”Opened another window

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John Paul The Great

The Dark CarnivalNear the end of 1980, the Soviets

were getting nervous about

Poland; worried about a labor

union called Solidarity and the

attitude of the Polish Government;

massed 15 divisions along the

border and prepared to invade

The Pope sent Brezhnev a sharply

worded letter and the Soviets

backed away

The Dark CarnivalStalin had asked “how many divisions does the Pope have”; in 1980 the Soviets found out

1978 (16 Oct): Karol Josef Wojtyla becomes Pope (John Paul II); had been Archbishop of Krakow (1963); the first non-Italian since the 16th century

1942: Underground seminary –opposed the Nazis and the Communists; Hans Frank, the German Governor (1939) – “There will never again be Poland”

The Dark CarnivalFrank set up his residence in the old royal residence of Wawel Castle and told his subordinates:– “I openly admit that some

thousands of so-called important Poles will have to pay with their lives, but … every vestige of Polish culture is to be eliminated”

Thousands were killed –Priests, college professors and ordinary people

1940: Katyn Forest; 25,000

The Dark Carnival1979 (June 2): First trip to Poland

which lasted 8 days; 13 million

people saw him; the Soviets

realized the danger – the Central

Committee adopted a plan to

oppose the Vatican

1981 (May 13): Attempted

assassination; organized by the

KGB through the Bulgarian Secret

Service

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The Dark Carnival1980: the Founding of Solidarity in the Gdansk shipyards; Lech Walesa; wanted a free trade union

1980-88: Becomes an underground movement; helped by the new American President and Pope John Paul II

1982: Time’s Man of the Year

The Dark Carnival1988: Strikes across the country

August 1989: Would support a coalition government; The first non-Communist government in eastern Europe since 1945

By Christmas: the Republic of Poland had risen from the grave

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The Battle of Burbank

The Dark CarnivalAfter the war ended, Reagan said

he was “blindly and busily joining

every organization I could find that

would guarantee to save the

world”; he was a New Deal liberal

(his father) and thought the

communists were simply liberals

Involved with the Screen Actors

Guild (President 1946-47)

The Dark Carnival1945 (Oct): Became involved in what appeared to be only a labor dispute between the AFL and the CSU (Conference of Studio Unions); the CSU however was openly affiliated with communist organizations and pressed a strike against Warner Brothers with very little support; provoked violence (the Battle of Burbank)

The Dark CarnivalReagan’s ideas and instincts

about the Soviet Union were

clarified during this period; he

had experience of their

methods and ideas up close;

understood them from the

inside – determined they

would not prevail

The Dark CarnivalIn the first term:

– Got the economy

straightened out; Paul

Volker and hard

money; tax cuts;

emphasis not on

regulation and control

but focused on the

market and incentives

for success

The Dark CarnivalHe pursued a measured and careful strategy to modernize conventional forces; opposed “pseudo-arms control”; and began a resource competition

He spoke softly because there was a recognition that the Cold War had entered a dangerous phase

Yuri Andropov came to power; he was a hardened Stalinist and deeply ignorant of the West

The Dark CarnivalAndropov was haunted by

apocalyptic visions (died in Feb

1984); 1983 – a Soviet Satellite

went defective (the most

dangerous moment)

Reagan also waged economic

warfare against the Soviet Union;

realized the Soviets were financing

through loans from the West;

becomes a national security issue

The Dark Carnival1981: Realized that the declaration of martial law in Poland would allow an embargo of Western money and technology; tasked William Clark (NSC until 1983) to set a course which would lead to Soviet economic collapse

1981: The French discovered Line X (“Farewell”); briefed Reagan; two hundred Soviet spies and officials; dealing with a “pirate”state

The Dark CarnivalSimilar to “Super Lend-Lease” (1940s); the CIA denied this was going on; allowed Reagan to understand exactly where the Soviets were behind

William Casey (CIA) set up the Technology Transfer Intelligence Center; in 1982 (Jan), Weiss was instructed to begin a “sting” transfer of “bad” product

The Dark Carnival1983 (March): Announced SDI

1984: Announced some conciliatory gestures and defined a way out for the Soviets a year before Gorbachev came to power– Gorbachev was determined to prevail;

kept the spending levels and increased the germ warfare program but slowly the Politburo came to realize that they could not compete (military, agriculture, economic production and R&D)

The Dark CarnivalThe CIA and the elites never

understood any of this – the Soviet

economy was a wreck; an “irrational”economy

Second term:

– 1986 (April): Chernobyl

– 1986: Reykjavik Summit; Soviet strategy

was to kill SDI; Reagan walked away from a

“deal” – the beginning of the end

The Dark CarnivalThere were a (very) few people who recognized what was happening.

One of those was Herb Meyer, who was special assistant to the Director of the CIA and Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. (Another “Long Telegram”?)

1983 (Nov 30): Meyer wrote a classified memo for Casey and John McMahon (Deputy Director, CIA) titled Why Is The World So Dangerous?

The Dark CarnivalMeyer thought the Cold War had

entered a new stage. There were

signs that America was gaining

and the Soviet Union was

declining.

– After 66 years the Soviet State

had failed to become a country.

Could only survive with

favorable economics and

demographics. This would not

happen.

The Dark Carnival– The Soviet economy was

headed for “calamity”.

– Eastern Europe would be more

difficult to control

– Time was not on the side of the

Soviet Union

Meyer made two predictions:

– “if present trends continue,

we’re going to win the Cold

War”

The Dark CarnivalAnother person who also

understood what was happening

was Daniel Patrick Moynihan – “It

was clear the Soviet Union was

coming apart”; It would happen as

the US kept applying pressure; he

argued there should be no

“honorable accommodation” – no

bargaining as the foreign policy

“experts” and professors were

suggesting

The Dark Carnival1987 (June): Reagan went to West

Berlin. He had been there in 1978.

His speechwriter was Peter

Robinson. In Berlin, he met a

woman (Ingeborg Elz) who told

him that if Gorbachev was

committed to “glasnost” he could

prove it by tearing down the wall

(1961). Robinson put the phrase in

the speech.

The Dark CarnivalOn November 4, 1989 two years

after the speech a million people

took to the streets of East Berlin.

The protests spread to the rest of

the country by November 8-9 and

the wall came down.

Caught everyone by surprise. The

question of the reintegration of

Germany (Herbert Kohl).

The Dark CarnivalReagan was interviewed by ABC (Sam Donaldson). Did you think it would happen so soon?

I didn’t now when it would come, but I am an eternal optimist, and I believed with all my heart that it was in the future.

Some of the street banners read: 1789-1989. Meaning that the era of utopian revolutionary politics had ended (the storming of the Bastille).

Timothy Garton Ash: Nineteen Eighty-Nine also caused, throughout the world, a profound crisis of identity on what had been known since the French Revolution of 1780 as “the left”.

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Postscripts

Colonel Carter Clarke

–Chief: U.S. Army’s Special

Branch of G2 (Army

Intelligence)

»1943 rumors of secret German-

Soviet peace negotiations

The Dark Carnival–Elite code breakers

–Arlington Hall (before the NSA)

–Broken by 1946

–Showed not diplomatic traffic but cables from professional intelligence case officers

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»Between 1943 and 1949: about

2900 cables

»Read diplomatic, commercial,

NKVD/KGB and military/naval

traffic

»At least 349 American citizens,

immigrants and residents (can

only identify 108 for sure)

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Serious damage: spying and

policy

–Harry Dexter White (second at US

Treasury); Worked on the

creation of the IMF and the

World Bank; used the Division of

Monetary Resources to recruit

spies ( 5-7 that we know of)

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Treasury also advocated a plan to transform Germany after the war into a country primarily agricultural and pastoral in its character. This was one of Stalin’s major objectives. The plan was drafted by those now identified as Soviet agents.

Lauchlin Currie (trusted Roosevelt personal assistant)

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–Maurice Halperin (head of research section OSS)

–William Perl (scientist, tests of advanced airplanes, jet fighter technology)

»Mig-15 in Korea

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The atomic spiesKlaus Fuchs

The Rosenbergs (Julius)

David Greenglass

Theodore Hall

»The “early” bomb and the Korean War

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Venona–“No such agency” until 11

July 1995 (Moynihan); 1997 Report by the Commission on Government Secrecy

–Truman told only a part

»General Omar Bradley (Oct 18, 1949)

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McCarthy’s tactics

and the substance

–Spies (not a fantasy)

–An honest discussion of

Stalinism ? (The context)

–The criticism of dissent

The Dark CarnivalThe Party (honest opposition ?): finances and policy direction

The use of “front” groups and ideas (Orwell)

Was Arthur Miller the best guide to the era? The Crucible (witches)

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A better guide to what was happening in the late 1940s and early 1950s ?

On The Waterfront (1954)

The Dark Carnival1992: Maria Schmidt (a

researcher) was working in

the Hungarian Archives;

She came across the

debriefing notes for Field

from 1954; Contained an

extensive discussion of the

espionage activity of Alger

Hiss; Confirmed by the

Venona intercepts

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1984: Chamber’s family received

the Presidential Medal of Freedom

1988 (June 7): his farm was listed

as a National Historical Landmark

By 1998: A clear vindication (thirty

seven years after his death) for

Whittaker Chambers – he had been

telling the truth

The Dark CarnivalReagan was reviled by his political opponents

They thought he was just an “actor” who slept through the job; a decade of “greed”Never liked by the Republican elites

1988: John Kerry, the Reagan Administration was a period of “moral darkness”Surprised by the outpouring of affection after his death.

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Ronald Reagan died of Alzheimer's on

June 5, 2004; one of those who came to sit

by his coffin and think about the events of

the 1980s was Lech Walesa

The Dark Carnival21 November 2011: A statue of Ronald Reagan was unveiled in Warsaw.

Lech Walesa: Let us bow before Ronald Reagan for the fact that our generation was able to bring an end to the great divisions and conflicts of the world… What happened seemed impossible or unthinkable.

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The

Truth Is

Out

There