the tribeca group at 2017 morgan stanley · the tribeca group at morgan stanley ... growth and...

19
THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 1 The Tribeca Group at Morgan Stanley Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management Third Quarter 2017 CAPITOL IDEAS Short-Term Rates Have Been On The Move While The Longer End Has Held Steady Opening Pandora’s Box: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction Plus A December Rate Hike Looming Market Implications Of Balance Sheet Reduction Tapering Was Tightening The Trend Is Not The Friend Of The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target The Inflation “Mystery” Staring Down The Curve Ball Of The Fed’s Tightening Path Markets Continue To Enjoy Record Low Volatility Easing Financial Conditions Giving The Fed Too Much Comfort For “Normalizing” Interest Rates Monetary Policy Meets Fiscal Policy Municipals Continued Strong Performance In Q3 But Weakness May Lie Ahead Early Warning Signs: Taxable Bond Investment Grade Leverage Has Been Ticking Higher Front-End Corporate Yields Are Rising Creating Lower Risk Income Opportunities Rising Risks In High Yield Market Makes Credit Picking Even More Important Record Low Volatility Likely Rises In Coming Quarters Creating Opportunities

Upload: leque

Post on 16-May-2018

214 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 1

The Tribeca Group atMorgan StanleyProfessional F ixed Income Port fo l io Management

Third Quarter

2017CAPITOL IDEAS■ Short-Term Rates Have Been On The Move While The

Longer End Has Held Steady

■ Opening Pandora’s Box: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction Plus A December Rate Hike Looming

■ Market Implications Of Balance Sheet Reduction

■ Tapering Was Tightening

■ The Trend Is Not The Friend Of The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target

■ The Inflation “Mystery”

■ Staring Down The Curve Ball Of The Fed’s Tightening Path

■ Markets Continue To Enjoy Record Low Volatility

■ Easing Financial Conditions Giving The Fed Too Much Comfort For “Normalizing” Interest Rates

■ Monetary Policy Meets Fiscal Policy

■ Municipals Continued Strong Performance In Q3 But Weakness May Lie Ahead

■ Early Warning Signs: Taxable Bond Investment Grade Leverage Has Been Ticking Higher

■ Front-End Corporate Yields Are Rising Creating Lower Risk Income Opportunities

■ Rising Risks In High Yield Market Makes Credit Picking Even More Important

■ Record Low Volatility Likely Rises In Coming Quarters Creating Opportunities

Page 2: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 2

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Welcome to our Third Quarter Investor Letter for 2017

W e have received excellent feedback from you on our more visual and graphical

presentation in these letters versus our prior plain narrative. Research tells us that our readers experience greater impact and retention when information is presented this way and so we now permanently adopt it.

Our theme last quarter – The Calm Before the Storm – expressed our concerns around very low levels of market volatility in the face of some significant challenges. Over the 3rd quarter though, risk assets maintained their strong performance despite ebbing tides of accommodative G4 central bank policy, slumping confidence in President Trump and Republican fiscal stimulus plans, along with lurking geo-political risks, especially in North Korea.

Over these last 3 months, we saw the Federal Reserve announce at their September policy meeting the start to the winding down of their massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet commencing this October. They also updated forecasts for interest rates, growth and inflation solidifying intentions to continue gradual increases to overnight borrowing rates even while acknowledging ongoing failure to hit their 2% inflation target. It is because markets continue to perform so well that they remain confident in their current path. Perhaps though it is also their fear of catalyzing an overheating of financial markets that also compels them to slowly take away the punch bowl even while admitting the lack of inflation remains a “mystery”.

Despite majorities in both chambers, Republicans failed in efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. They were similarly unable to pass any other major legislation other than a continuing budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown and technical default. That occurred only by way of the President’s limited bi-partisan deal tied to hurricane relief aid. Hurricanes impacted the quarter and will in later quarters as storm-related damage to the economy turns to relief-related stimulus. Longer term though, increasing deficits will continue to bump up against the statutory debt ceiling, likely resolved by raising the caps. Allowing for greater treasury issuance will help pressure rates higher, all while the Fed adds further to the supply through the wind down of its balance sheet.

The war of words between the U.S. and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un heated up as President Trump in his first U.N. appearance threatened to “totally destroy North Korea” if their missile and nuclear weapons tests continue. That statement in turn was deemed “a declaration of war” by North Korea’s foreign minister.1 Yet despite such unnerving rhetoric and threats, we saw only modest, short-lived risk-off responses in the markets.

Through all of these worrisome trends and data points though, moderate synchronous growth permeates the world for the first time in decades right now.2 In developed economies like our own, this 3rd longest shallow expansion faces an inevitable end. With next year’s midterm elections looming, Congressional Republicans are then racing to enact tax reform to provide fiscal stimulus for continued growth. Given competing constituencies and resistance to eliminating deductions to fund tax cuts, getting a bill passed before early next year will be difficult. Even then, it will also likely increase our already dangerously high deficit. Such capitol ideas will draw a further response from across the Capitol at the Federal Reserve building, further pushing up rates. This is the catalyst we see finally unleashing an increase in volatility that will also create opportunities. Rest assured we have our eyes on all of these issues as we remain careful stewards of your hard-earned capital.

1 CBS/AP Newswire, North Korea calls Trump tweet “a declaration of war“, September 25th, 2017.2 IMF World Economic Outlook: A Firming Recovery, July 24, 2017.

Page 3: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

012017THIRD QUARTER

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 3

Short-Term Rates Have Been On The Move While The Longer End Has Held Steady

■ Th e Fed has raised overnight borrowing rates 3 times so far in just the last 10 months for a total of 4 rate increases since beginning the process in December 2015.

■ On the longer end, 10-year interest rates ended the quarter just about where they began the year, back to the highs reached immediately following the election.

■ Since the end of the First Quarter, we have otherwise been range-bound between 2.09% and 2.37% since the end of Q1.

■ We see yields capped into yearend by the prior 12 month high of 2.67%.

■ We also believe it unlikely that 10-year note yeilds revisit levels below 2%.

Fed Funds Target Overnight Interbank Borrowing Rate: Last 2 Years

BLOOMBERG®

UST 10-year: Last 12 Months

BLOOMBERG®

Page 4: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 4

02THIRD QUARTER 2017

OPENING PANDORA’S BOX: Balance Sheet Reduction Plus A December Rate Hike

■ At their September meeting, the Fed updated their projections to include:

• Increased consensus for a December rate hike; but: lowered their terminal rate forecast to 2.75% from 3%;

• Raised their GDP forecast; but: lowered their infl ation estimates.

■ Most importantly, the Fed formally announced the start of balance sheet reduction commencing in October taking it from $4.5 trillion to under $3 trillion by 2020:

• Treasuries down by $6Bln a month increasing by $6Bln every quarter up to a $30Bln monthly cap

• MBS down by $4Bln a month increasing by $4Bln every quarter up to $20Bln monthly cap

$2.5Trln Fed-Held Treasuries $1.8Trln Fed-Held MBS

Page 5: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

03

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 5

THIRD QUARTER 2017

OPENING PANDORA’S BOX: Market Implications For Balance Sheet Reduction

■ Watching “paint dry” or peel?: Fed offi cials have mused that balance sheet reduction will be as boring as “watching paint dry”, but consider that when we hit the $30Bln monthly UST cap, it will increase monthly supply by more than 50% of projected net US Treasury issuance into a market where reduced broker/dealer balance sheets have contributed to a signifi cant reduction in daily market volume and liquidity.

■ G4 issuance trends are also on the rise as the ECB also prepares to begin tapering

■ Th is global draining of liquidity has potentially negative implications for both the level of longer-term interest rates as well as for risk assets

G4 net nominal coupon issuance per year

UST Net Treasury Issuance UST Average Daily Trading Volume

Page 6: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

04

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 6

THIRD QUARTER 2017

OPENING PANDORA’S BOX: Tapering Was Tightening

■ Federal Reserve Bank research has estimated that the impact on short-term fi nancing costs from the tapering of its bond buying was the equivalent of almost 300 basis points in short-term interest rate increases.

■ As calculated by the St. Louis Fed’s Shadow Fed Funds Rate, tapering taken together with the 4 quarter point rate hikes already prosecuted by the Fed brings their tightening actions up to nearly the same amount as in the 3 prior rate hiking cycles.

■ Th is signals to us that the Fed may be either closer to done with rate hikes or on the verge of a policy mistake.

Source: St Louis Fed & Morgan Stanley Research

Page 7: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

05

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 7

THIRD QUARTER 2017

The Trend Is Not The Friend Of The Fed’s 2% Infl ation Target

Average Core In� ation: 1950 to Present

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index versus Unemployment Rate

BLOOMBERG®

■ After every recession since 1982, core infl ation has averaged lower than in the previous business cycle.

■ Th e Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s favored infl ation measure, has been falling throughout 2017.

■ Fed policy is heavily infl uenced by Phillips Curve analysis which theorizes that full employment generally results in future wage infl ation which has not been materializing.

Page 8: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

06

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 8

THIRD QUARTER 2017

The Infl ation “Mystery”

“This year the shortfall of inflation from 2%, when none of those factors [spare capacity in the jobs market after the recession, falling energy prices and an appreciation of the dollar] is operative, is more of a mystery. I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes of that are.” [emphasis added]

— Federal Chair Janet Yellen, September 20, 2017 Post-FOMC Press Conference

“It would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%. We should also be wary of moving too gradually.”

— Federal Chair Janet Yellen, September 26, 2017 at the National Association of Business Economics Conference

■ Morgan Stanley economists recently lowered their infl ation and Fed Funds forecasts due to 5 factors: 1) technology; 2) domestic oversupply; 3) China overcapacity; 4) structural U.S. dollar bull market; and 5) falling infl ation expectations – infl uences that likely make up the large light blue “Other Factors” bars in the above chart.

■ With the Fed’s favored infl ation measure not expected to get above 2% even by the end of 2018, the real mystery may be why the Fed expects to both steadily raise rates while simultaneously signifi cantly reducing its balance sheet securities holdings at the risk of unmooring future infl ation expectations.

Decomposition of headline PCE shortfall vs. the Fed’s 2% target in recent months

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Page 9: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

07

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 9

THIRD QUARTER 2017

The Fed’s Tightening Path Staring Down A Curve Ball

■ Th us far through this tightening cycle, the curve has followed its historical inverse relationship to Fed Funds.

■ While not an infallible indicator having predicted 7 out of the last 5 recessions, the sort of fl attening we are seeing in the treasury curve now typically precedes an economic slowdown.

■ Still, the yield curve is not exceptionally fl at by historical averages, but does bear continued watching as a potential early market warning of a Fed monetary policy error.

U.S. Treasury 2-year/10-year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Rate

Page 10: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

08

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 10

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Markets Continue To Enjoy Record Low Volatility

■ As noted in our last letter, volatilities remain extremely depressed.

■ Interest rates and market volatility are inversely correlated.

■ Th e current divergence looks like it will extend further as rates likely move higher in coming quarters.

■ At some point, those same higher rates likely cause volatility to snap higher, bringing interest rates back down.

■ In light of this outlook, we are reducing both interest rate and credit risk sensitivity in our portfolios as we await better opportunities.

Page 11: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

09

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 11

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Easing Financial Conditions Give The Fed Comfort To “Normalize” Policy

“Even though inflation is currently somewhat below our longer-run objective, I judge that it is still appropriate [to press forward with a slow and steady

path of rate increases]. This judgment is supported by the fact that financial conditions have eased, rather than tightened.”

— Bill Dudley, NY Federal Reserve President, June 26, 2017

■ Financial conditions are collectively comprised of: 1) stock prices, 2) corporate credit spreads, and 3) the exchange value of the dollar.

■ Record high equity prices, very tight corporate spreads and a stable to lower dollar have helped ease fi nancial conditions in the economy, giving the Fed perceived room to continue removing policy accommodation.

■ While fi nancial conditions have eased to levels not seen since prior to the fi nancial crisis, the risk to the rationale for their continued course is that those same factors can quickly reverse with any rapid correction in stock prices or credit spreads widening, threatening our tepid expansion.

■ Given that monetary policy acts with a 12 to 18 month lag, the Fed risks triggering such a widening in fi nancial conditions and possibly even recession by steadily increasing rates and running off its balance sheet.

■ Cooling what they fear are overheated fi nancial markets may in fact be the Fed’s real objective.

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index

BLMBERG®OO

Page 12: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

10

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 12

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Monetary Policy Meets Fiscal PolicyTHE SO-CALLED REPUBLICAN WHITE HOUSE AND CONGRESSIONAL “BIG 6” RECENTLY RELEASED THEIR BLUEPRINT FOR TAX REFORM RAISING INVESTOR HOPES FOR ECONOMIC FISCAL STIMULUS:

CORPORATE TAX REFORM HIGHLIGHTS■ Th e corporate rate will be set at 20%

■ Allow full and immediate expensing of capital purchases for at least 5 years

■ Impose a partial limitation on the ability of companies to deduct interest expenses

■ Repeal the corporate AMT

■ Moving from a worldwide system of taxation of business income to a territorial system, and impose base-erosion rules to protect the U.S. tax base

■ Impose a deemed repatriation tax on already accumulated overseas earnings not yet taxed by the U.S.

■ LLC and LP Pass through rate set at 25% with rules limiting the ability of individuals to re-characterize personal income/wages as profi ts.

INDIVIDUAL TAX REFORM HIGHLIGHTS■ Double the standard deduction to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couple and eliminating

most itemized deductions (impacts 30% of taxpayers)

■ Retain “tax incentives for home mortgage interest and charitable contributions” while eliminating most itemized deductions including state and local income/property taxes

■ Compress the current seven brackets to three brackets – 12%, 25%, and 35% (Committees are given fl exibility to add fourth rate on the wealthiest taxpayers)

■ Repeal the individual AMT, the estate tax and the generation-skipping transfer tax

“They’re throwing sugar out on the table. You haven’t even begun to deal with the spinach part. Not even a little leaf of spinach was thrown out on the table.”

— Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.).

■ While markets have reacted in a way indicating increased probability for passage of fi scal stimulus, it is a long road for Republican lawmakers to enact legislation following a yearlong series of notable failures including ACA repeal & replace.

■ Fiscal stimulus probably elicits even more tightening reaction from the Federal Reserve, especially with the economy at full employment by their measures.

■ Tax cuts likely also increase the Federal defi cit forcing Treasury to issue even more debt, which potentially helps pressure interest rates higher.

Page 13: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

11

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 13

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Municipals Continued Strong Performance In Q3 But Weakness May Lie Ahead

■ We believe a combination of new supply and yearend tax-loss selling coupled with some weakening of credit fundamentals could dampen the strong performance seen so far this year.

■ Tax-reform may also play a big role in performance as the fate of the municipal exemption once again may be opened up for debate.

■ Budget delays and underfunded pensions continue to also plague certain issuers.

• Pennsylvania and Connecticut both began and ended the quarter without a budget with an expectation that such negative headlines continue into the 4th quarter.

• Connecticut’s capital city of Hartford is at the brink of bankruptcy facing a $50 million defi cit.

■ Tax-exempt bonds have posted positive performance in every quarter so far this year.

■ Munis have bested treasuries by over 250 basis points according to Bloomberg/Barclays data.

■ Th e 3rd quarter saw a $4.5 billion, eleven consecutive week run of positive infl ows, the longest streak since October 2016.

■ We expect that trend to continue into the 4th quarter as foreign investment continues to increase.

■ Overseas investors have added to municipal funds every quarter for the past 5 years thanks to low rate environments abroad.

Page 14: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

12

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 14

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Taxable Bond Investment Grade Leverage Has Been Ticking Higher

■ Median Investment Grade gross leverage has ticked up to record levels…

■ …while spreads on corporate bonds sit just above their record lows.

■ Such early warning signs are being ignored as Foreign buying of domestic corporate bonds continues.

■ Th is creates a strong technical bid in the market forcing spreads/yields lower, a trend we see continuing.

Page 15: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

13

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 15

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Front-End Corporate Yields Are Rising Creating Lower Risk Income Opportunities

■ Front end yields have risen across the board with 3-month LIBOR higher by 33 basis points so far in 2017

■ 2-year treasury yields are 25 basis points higher while 10-year treasury yields are lower from the beginning of the year.

■ We expect curve fl attening to continue but with longer-end yields rising at a slower rate than Fed-controlled short rates.

■ Th is yield curve fl attening creates more lower interest rate risk income opportunities for investors causing money to continue fl owing into short duration strategies.

■ A 10-year bond has more than 4 times greater price exposure to higher interest rates than a 2-year bond.

■ A fl atter yield curve argues for taking less interest rate risk as investors are not forced to give up as much yield to reduce exposure to rising rates.

U.S. Treasury 2-year

Page 16: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

14

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 16

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Source: Bloomberg

Rising Risks In High Yield Market Makes Credit Picking Even More Important

■ In the overall market, High Yield downgrades (442) have outnumbered upgrades (281) year-to-date, evidencing deteriorating credit quality within the broader non-investment grade market.

■ According to Morgan Stanley research, low quality Triple-C spreads have widened in relationship to higher quality Double-Bs even as overall High Yield spreads have rallied.

■ Such rising dispersion means credit picking is becoming more valuable as higher dispersion is a function of increasing idiosyncratic risk across sectors slowly driving tail risks higher.

Page 17: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

15

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 17

THIRD QUARTER 2017

Positioned For A Rise In Record Low Volatility That Likely Creates Opportunities

Since the fi nancial crisis, central banks have done an excellent job of re-liquefying developed economies and quelling fi nancial market volatility through extraordinary monetary policy. In the U.S., a reversal of those policies began some time ago fi rst with tapering of bond purchases, then a series of 4 short-term rates increases and now actual reduction of the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Since monetary policy acts with a lag, we are positioning portfolios to reduce interest rate and credit risk as we anticipate a return of volatility as the Fed continues down its tightening path. Any front-loaded, defi cit increasing tax reform will only accelerate the Fed’s course and increase risks to the markets.

Still, rather than triggering a crisis, we instead believe it will create greater opportunities than we now see in most sectors of the bond market. We fi nd greatest value today in higher quality, shorter duration credit both in taxable and municipal bonds and are positioning portfolios accordingly. Th is should allow clients to maintain volatility-dampening fi xed income exposure with reduced risk while earning attractive income in today’s fl atter yield curve environment.

Until our next letter, may the leaves be all that we see falling this Autumn season.

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY

Page 18: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY - Professional Fixed Income Portfolio Management | 18

THIRD QUARTER 2017

I M P O R T A N T I N F O R M A T I O NThe views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which is the risk that the issuer will redeem the debt at its option, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. The market value of debt instruments may fluctuate, and proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than the amount originally invested or the maturity value due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Bonds are subject to the credit risk of the issuer. This is the risk that the issuer might be unable to make interest and/or principal payments on a timely basis. Bonds are also subject to reinvestment risk, which is the risk that principal and/or interest payments from a given investment may be reinvested at a lower interest rate.

Interest in municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax. However, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Typically, state tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one’s state of residence and, local tax-exemption typically applies if securities are issued within one’s city of residence.

Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline. Finally, bonds can be subject to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, underlying bonds will lose the interest payments from the investment and will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made. NOTE: High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues.

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.

This material is intended only for clients and prospective clients of the Portfolio Management program. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument, or to participate in any trading strategy.

The individuals mentioned as the Portfolio Management Team are Financial Advisors with Morgan Stanley participating in the Morgan Stanley Portfolio Management program. The Portfolio Management program is an investment advisory program in which the client’s Financial Advisor invests the client’s assets on a discretionary basis in a range of securities. The Portfolio Management program is described in the applicable Morgan Stanley ADV Part 2, available at www.morganstanley.com/ADV or from your Financial Advisor.

Past performance of any security is not a guarantee of future performance. There is no guarantee that this investment strategy will work under all market conditions.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, Member SIPC.

CRC 1912304

Page 19: The Tribeca Group at 2017 Morgan Stanley · THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY ... growth and inflation solidifying intentions to ... infl uences that likely make up the large light

Source:*�e portfolio managers are members of the MorganStanley Portfolio Management Group. Since 1979, the Portfolio Management Group has been creating customized investment strategies for high net worth individuals and institutional investors. Our portfolio managers are a select group of Financial Advisors who are quali�ed to independently manage client assets based on training, experience and commitment to client service. **Citigroup High Yield Market Credit Index is a standard market index consisting of issues with an average life of 7 years or less.

THE TRIBECA GROUP at MORGAN STANLEY

Scott McCoy, Managing Director - Wealth Management/Senior Portfolio Management Director, Corporate Cash Investment Director, International Client Advisor, National Strategic Partner, Financial Advisor is a member of Morgan Stanley’s 2016 Chairman’s Club. He also holds the title of Portfolio Manager and brings over 25 years of �xed income experience to �e Tribeca Group’s clients. Before joining the �rm in 2008, Scott was a Senior Managing Director and

institutional �xed income salesperson in the Middle Markets Group at Bear Stearns. �ere, he served the �xed income needs of depository institutions, money managers, insurance companies, and hedge funds. Prior to that, he traded government bonds at Citicorp Securities where he was responsible for the short coupon sector. A graduate of Holy Cross College, Scott holds a J.D. from St. John's University and an M.B.A. from New York University.

Jordan Eisenberg, CFA®, Executive Director - Wealth Management/Senior Portfolio Management Director, is a member of Morgan Stanley’s 2016 President’s Club. He brings over 15 years of �xed income experience to �e Tribeca Group’s clients. Before joining the �rm, Jordan was an Associate Director at Bear Stearns, where he helped institutional clients develop �xed income strategies utilizing high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, as well as interest rate products including

treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, and is a member of the CFA Institute and the New York Society of Security Analysts. Jordan is a graduate of the University of Florida where he received a B.S. in Business Administration.

Yunjin Lee, CFA®, CMA®, Associate Vice President – Wealth Management, Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley, focused on providing in-depth fundamental and technical analysis of investment grade and high yield bonds. Yunjin researches outside money managers whom we might recommend for various components of your portfolio. Yunjin joined Morgan Stanley in 2009 after working in Barclay Capital’s High Yield Credit Corporate Department as a

trading desk and publishing analyst. Prior to that, she served as a strategy consultant at Bain & Co. She holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is a member of the CFA institute and the New York Society of Security Analysts. A graduate of Korea University, Yunjin received an M.B.A. from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

William M. Wilson is a Portfolio Management Associate with over 7 years of �xed income experience. He works closely with Portfolio Managers in executing �e Tribeca Groups’ municipal strategy in the areas of trading, portfolio analytics, and market data/research. In addition, he provides institutional clients with information on primary market o�erings and trade execution. Prior to joining �e Tribeca Group, William was a Vice-President at Roosevelt & Cross,

Inc., actively managing a municipal inventory consisting of a wide array of credits, providing liquidity for institutional customers, and developing trading strategies. He is a graduate of the Boston University Questrom School of Business where he received a B.S. in Business Administration and currently holds Series 7, 52, 53, 63 and 66 registrations.

Michael Clark is a Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley. Michael has over 30 years’ experience in the �nancial services industry, working as a regional representative for asset management companies including Smith Barney/Citigroup Asset Management, Legg Mason, and Eaton Vance Distributors. In joining the Tribeca Group in 2015, Michael is responsible for managing the relationship between the Tribeca Group and the other

Financial Advisors at Morgan Stanley. He earned a BA in Economics from UCLA and currently holds series 7, 63, and 65 registrations.

Tom Santagato is a Wealth Advisory Associate focused on enhancing relationships between the Tribeca Group and its Partner Financial Advisors. Prior to joining the Tribeca Group, he was a member of a $5 billion Corporate Cash Management team at Oppenheimer & Co. Tom is a 2007 graduate of Spring�eld College where he earned a B.S. in Education and was a member of the lacrosse team. While competing on the U.S. Skeleton National Team, he took

classes toward an M.B.A. in Finance and graduated with distinction in 2015. He currently holds Series 7 and 66 registrations.

Melissa Harrington is a Portfolio Associate with 25 years of �nancial services industry experience, joining the Tribeca Group in 2010. In this role, she works to help facilitate client service, trade settlement, account maintenance, and marketing. Prior to joining the Tribeca Group, Melissa was a separate account product wholesaler with Northern Trust and Wilmington Trust. Melissa attended High Point College in High Point North

Carolina, majoring in Economics. She currently holds Series 7and Series 63 registrations.

Austin Cremins is a Senior Client Service Associate at Morgan Stanley focused on providing important assistance to our Portfolio Managers in the areas of portfolio analytics, market data tracking, and reporting services. Before joining the �rm Austin worked at Societe Generale advising clients on raising capital within the US Private Placements market. Austin is a graduate of Western Kentucky University with a B.S. in Finance.

The Tribeca Group at Morgan Stanley399 Park Avenue – 12th Floor, New York, NY 10019

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:Phone: (888) 322-2327 or (212) 271-0448 Fax: (212) 504-9566

We’re on the Web: http://www.morganstanleyfa.com/thetribecagroup/story.htm

October 2017CRC 1912304

THE TRIBECA GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEYProfessional Fixed Income Portfolio Management