the transformation of usa radio by larry rosin from edison research @ radio 2.0 paris 2014
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Présentation donnée par Larry Rosin, Co-founder et Président de Edison Research, aux IV Rencontres Radio 2.0 Paris, le 13 octobre 2014 dans le prestigieux Studio 105 de la Maison de la Radio de Radio France. Info : www.RR20.fr Pour rester informé, suivez-nous sur : - Facebook : Radio 2.0 Paris - Twitter : @Radio_20 #rr20 - LinkedIn : Radio 2.0 Organisateurs : Nicolas Moulard / Actuonda, Xavier Filliol / Editions de l'Octet, Radio France, Ina Expert Partenaires : - Partenaires Platinum : Mediametrie, Limelight - Autres Partenaires : Music Story, Triton Digital, Targetspot, RCS, Spotify, Netia, Deezer, Kantar - Partenaires Média : La Lettre Pro de la Radio, RadioPub, Media +, Edition Multimedia, Satellinet, French Web - La Radio des Rencontres : Broadcast Associés, Radioline Avec le soutien du Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication, Geste, ESML, Syrol, Sacem, UDA-Union des Annonceurs, IRMA, Salon de la Radio, URTI Membres du Comité de Pilotage : Actuonda, Broadcast Associés, Deezer, Editions de l’Octet, Havas Media, INA, IndésRadio, irma, Kantar Media, Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication, MédiaMétrie, Orange, Radio France, Radioline, RFI, RTL, Sacem , Spotify Targetspot , Triton Digital, UDA-Union des Annonceurs, Warner Music France.TRANSCRIPT
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Larry Rosin, Co-founder and President
The Transformation
of USA Radio
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In many ways, the best of times
• An explosion of options for the consumer
– AM/FM
– HD Radio– HD Radio
– Podcasts
– Internet Radio (especially Pandora)
– Satellite Radio
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For American Commercial Radio, the worst of times
• Significant losses in listening
• Mass firings of staff
• Flat (at best) revenues• Flat (at best) revenues
• Uninspired content largely targeted to the
lowest education segments of America
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Within AM/FM – the ‘non-commercial tier’ is healthy
• “Public Radio” has done a tremendous
job of ‘stealing’ the college educated
listener from commercial radiolistener from commercial radio
– But Public Radio has stopped growing as
these same people move to new
technologies
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Within AM/FM – the ‘non-commercial tier’ is healthy
• “Christian Radio thrives in non-
commercial radio
– And at times, in commercial radio
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The modern history of American Radio starts with this guy:
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Timeline:
• 1996 – President Clinton signs the “Cable Bill”
removing nearly all restrictions on radio station
ownership
• 1997-2001 Hundreds of sellers turn consolidators into
huge new national radio station businesses, funded by
massive debt– Clear Channel
– CBS
– Cumulus
– Others
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Timeline:
• 2000-2007
– Defying all predictions for growth which were the basis of the
consolidators’ financial plans – radio ‘flatlines’ in revenues
• Was it because of the consolidation?• Was it because of the consolidation?– Many believe this to be the case
– Less inspiring programming
• Note – Public Radio grew massively during this period
– Less competition
– Increases in commercial time per hour
– Huge pullback in resources
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Timeline:
• 2008-2009
– Financial crisis hits
– Radio revenues drop 35% nationally over these two years
– Bankruptcies and more consolidation– Bankruptcies and more consolidation
• 2010-Today
– Commercial AM/FM struggling to regain any of the lost
revenues
– Note: Radio continues to have ‘reach’ – declines are in TSL
• And a whole parallel movement happens
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Spring Quarter 1980-2012
Broadcast Radio in a long term decline
16,2%
16,8%
17,9%18,2%
18,0%
18,0%
17,6%
17,7%
17,4%
17,7%
17,5%
17,3%
17,2%
17,2%
16,9%
16,7%
16,5%
16,3%
16,1%
15,7%15,1%
16,0%
17,0%
18,0%
19,0%
20,0%
AM/FM Listening
16,2%16,5%
16,1%
15,3%
15,1%
14,9%
14,6%
14,4%
14,2%
14,0%
13,8%
13,2%
11,7% 11,2%10,8%
10,4%9,9%
9,0%
10,0%
11,0%
12,0%
13,0%
14,0%
15,0%
16,0%
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What has caused this diminishment in AM/FM listening?
• A parallel growth in alternative options
– Online Radio
– Satellite Radio– Satellite Radio
– Podcasts
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34%
39%
45%47%
% Who Have Listened to Online Radio in Last Month Estimated124 Million
Monthly Online Radio Audience
Approaching Half of Americans
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
17% 16% 15%
21% 20% 21%
27% 27%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
Base: Total Population 12+
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75%
50%
Three-Quarters of 12-24s and Half of
25-54s Listen to Online Radio Monthly
% By Age Group Who Have Listened to Online Radio in Last Month
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
21%
12-24 25-54 55+
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
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29%33%
36%
Online Radio Reaches Estimated 94 Million Weekly
% Who Have Listened to Online Radio in Last Week
Estimated 94 Million
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
8% 8% 8%12% 12% 13%
17% 17%22%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Base: Total Population 12+
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
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64%
Just Under Two-Thirds of 12-24s Listen to Online Radio Weekly; More Than
One in Three Age 25-54
% By Age Group Who Have Listened to Online Radio in Last Week
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
37%
13%
12-24 25-54 55+
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
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8:029:17 9:46
11:5613:19
Average Time Spent per Week With All Sources of Online Radio
(Hours:Minutes)
Weekly Online Radio Listeners Report
More Time Spent Listening Every Year
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
6:13 6:318:02
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Base: Weekly Online Radio Listeners
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
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21%
26%
% of Cell Phone Owners Who Have Ever Listened to Online Radio in a Car by
Listening to the Stream From a Cell Phone Connected to a Car Audio System
Online Radio Listening in a Car Via
Cell Phone Continues Steady Increase to 26%
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
6%
11%
17%21%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Base: Own a Cell Phone
Online Radio = Listening to AM/FM radio stations online and/or listening to streamed audio content available only on the Internet
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What is causing these leaps in Online Radio Listening?
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% Aware of…
28%
40%
47%
48%
70%
Spotify
Rhapsody
iTunes Radio
iHeartRadio
Pandora
Many brands of Online Radio with
Pandora the overwhelming leader
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
Base: Total Population 12+
3%
5%
5%
8%
10%
14%
14%
24%
28%
Stitcher
Songza
Rdio
Last.fm
TuneIn Radio
Radio.com
Slacker
Google Play All Access
Spotify
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Nearly 1/3rd of Americans listen to Pandora
8%
9%
31%
iTunes Radio
iHeartRadio
Pandora
% Age 12+ Who Listened in Last Month to…
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
2%
2%
2%
3%
6%
TuneIn Radio
Slacker
Rhapsody
Google Play All Access
Spotify
Brands lower than 2% Age 12+ not shown
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Percent by Age Group Who Listened in Last Month to…
55%
Age 12-24
Age 25-54
© 2014 Edison Research and Triton Digital
11%
33%Pandora Age 25-54
Age 55+
Brands lower than 6% Age 12+ not shown
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“Do you currently subscribe to any services from Sirius XM?”
About one-in-seven American Households
subscribes to Satellite Radio
Yes15%
No85%
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% of 12+ population with a smartphone
More than three-quarters of 18-34s have a smartphone
54%
66% 64%
54%60%
75% 74%
69% 2012 2013
54% 54%
41%
27%
11%
51%
34%
17%
12-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
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% of smartphone owners who have downloaded app
Nearly half of smartphone owners have downloaded Pandora
9%
15%
47%
AM/FM Station App
iHeartRadio
Pandora
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
9%
Radio.com App
SiriusXM
Songza
Aha Radio
Spotify
AM/FM Station App
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“Which one of these are you most likely to use first thing in the morning?”
But it is not just alternative forms of ‘Radio’ that are
squeezing down AM/FM listening
Radio30%
Television39%
Internet23%
Newspaper8%
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SiriusXM7.7%
Internet Radio/Music (Pandora, Spotify, etc.)
11.6%
Owned Music (CDs, Digital music files, etc.)
20.3%Share of EarAmericans’ Share of Time Spent Listening to Audio Sources
May 2014
AM/FM Radio52.1%
Source: Edison Research. Americans spend an average of 4 hours and 5 minutes each day consuming audio. This graph represents the share of time spent with each. Based on a nationally representative sample of 2,096 Americans ages 13+ who completed a 24-hour audio listening diary, May 2014. For more information contact [email protected]
Podcasts1.7%
Other1.5%
TV Music Channels(e.g. Music Choice)
5.2%
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Bear in mind
• Every item I have showed would look much more
dramatic if I isolate 12-34 year olds
• Especially the loss in AM/FM listening
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Items to consider:
• Avoid the defensive posture
– American Radio is constantly using the word ‘still’ in its
argument:
• We ‘still’ have cume• We ‘still’ have cume
• We ‘still’ dominate the car
• Innovate in every way you can
– Part of what we have been seeing out here is entrepreneurs
exploiting American Radio’s inability to innovate because they
have to pay the bankers
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Keep in mind
• Your new friend Larry knows pretty much everyone in
American Radio and many in the streaming space
• I’ll be happy to continue to make introductions to
anyone you want
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IV Rencontres RADIO 2.0 Paris
‘Les nouvelles frontières de la radio 2.0’
IV Rencontres RADIO 2.0 Paris
‘Les nouvelles frontières de la radio 2.0’
13 Oct. 2014 13 Oct. 2014 @ @ Radio France Radio France 13 Oct. 2014 13 Oct. 2014 @ @ Radio France Radio France
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Xavier Filliol
Organisateurs
Partenaires Gold La Radio des Rencontres