The Sustainable Agriculture Matrix

Eric A. Davidson, Xin Zhang, Jing Zhao, Tan ZouUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Appalachian Lab

http://research.al.umces.edu/sam/

Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World Austrian Academy of Sciences

April 4, 2019

Sustainable Development Goals

2

Indicator 2.4.1: Percentage of agricultural area under sustainable agricultural practices

Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

But how can sustainable agriculture be measured?

33% for food Jason ClayWWF-US

Initial Goal of African Green RevolutionMoving from 1 to 3 tons per hectare 0 N added = 1 ton/ha maize60-70% of water lost throughevaporation

50 kg N ha-1 = 3 tons/ha maize30 -40% of water lost throughevaporation

Cheryl Palm & Pedro Sanchez, Columbia University

Sustainable Intensification of

Agriculturevs.

Industrialization of Agriculture

Mo Fo; Lo Po

• Eutrophication of estuaries; dead zones; harmful algal blooms• Nitrate in drinking water• NOx, O3, and PM2.5 air pollution• N2O as greenhouse gas & stratospheric ozone reactant• Acid rain & biodiversity loss

The Haber-Bosch process is one of the greatest public health boons in human history

Too Much Nitrogen: A Cascade of ConsequencesHow to optimize the good and minimize the bad?

Smog, Haze

Eutrophication

Forest Die-back Acidification

Global WarmingOzone Hole

John Aber

From Jim Galloway

Consumed Animal

Products

N inputs:

synthetic N fertilizers

manure

& natural N fixation

Consumed Crops

Crop production

Groundwater & surface waters

NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart

NH3 N2O NOX N2

NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart

NH3 N2O NOX N2

Atmosphere

feed

Agriculture

14%

4%Animal production

Nitrogen: A Very Leaky Element

Oenema et al. 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 133, 280-288.

Fowler et al. 2013 The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century. Phil Trans R Soc B 368: 20130164

Nitrogen Flow in Agricultural System

(Davidson et al., 2016, J. Environ. Studies Science)

NATURE|Vol 461|24 September 2009“Editor’s note Please note that this Feature and the Commentaries are not peer-reviewed research. This Feature, the full paper and the expert Commentaries can all be accessed from http://tinyurl.com/planetboundaries.”

Updated by Steffen et al. 2015. Science

A radar chart for visualizing a country’s performance in sustainable agricultural production.

Sustainable Agriculture Matrix

Xin ZhangUniv. of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Appalachian Lab

Goals of SAM: Provide consistent &

transparent measurements of country performances in sustainable agricultural production

Investigate socio-economic and ecological drivers for achieving sustainability.

Quantify and visualize impacts of current agricultural production on future sustainability.

A radar chart for visualizing America’s performance in sustainable agricultural production.

Sustainable Agriculture Matrix

A radar chart for visualizing America’s performance in sustainable agricultural production.

Sustainable Agriculture Matrix

A radar chart for visualizing America’s performance in sustainable agricultural production.

Sustainable Agriculture Matrix

Sustainable Agriculture MatrixABBR Indicator names AGDP Real agriculture GDP per capita RGDP Agriculture GDP per rural population AEXP Agricultural expenditure A2F Access to finance FCR Food consumption expenditure ratio WUE Water use efficiency GWD Groundwater depletion Nsur Nitrogen surplus NUE Nitrogen use efficiency LCC Land cover change LUE Land use efficiency GUE Agriculture Productivity of GHG GHG Greenhouse gas emission T3R Share of top 3 crops SSR Self-sufficiency ratio RHI Production diversity indicator UDN Prevalence of undernourishment OBR Obesity ratio IRON Iron values of crops PROT Protein values of crops

Tracking a country’s performance

Correlation between indicatorsAGDP RGDP AEXP A2F FCR WUE GWD Nsur NUE LUE LCC GHG GUE T3R SSR RHI UDN OBR PRTN IRON

AGDP 1RGDP 0.9* 1AEXP 0.5* 0.5* 1A2F 0.7* 0.8* 0.7* 1FCR 0.6* 0.7* 0.5* 0.8* 1WUE -0.1 -0.2 -0.3* -0.3* -0.2 1GWD -0.1 -0.2 -0.4* -0.3* -0.2 0.8* 1Nsur -0.4* -0.5* -0.4* -0.6* -0.5* 0.1 0.1 1NUE -0.3* -0.4* -0.1 -0.5* -0.4* 0.1 0.1 0.8* 1LUE 0.6* 0.6* 0.5* 0.7* 0.6* 0 -0.1 -0.5* -0.3* 1LCC -0.4* -0.4* -0.4* -0.4* -0.4* -0.4* -0.1 0.2* 0.2* -0.3* 1GHG -0.3* -0.2* -0.4* -0.4* -0.3* -0.3* -0.1 0.5* 0.4* -0.5* 0.4* 1GUE 0.1 0.1* 0.2* 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 -0.5* -0.1 1T3R -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3* -0.1 0.2* 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3* -0.2 0.1 0.3* 1SSR 0.2* 0.2 0.6* 0.2 0 -0.1 -0.2* -0.1 0.1 0.3* -0.4* -0.3* 0.5* 0.1 1RHI 0.4* 0.4* 0.5* 0.4* 0.3* -0.4* -0.5* -0.3* -0.1 0.2* -0.2* -0.2 0.3* 0.2 0.6 1UDN 0.6* 0.7* 0.5* 0.7* 0.6* -0.2* -0.3* -0.4* -0.3* 0.6* -0.2* -0.3* 0.3* 0 0.2* 0.4* 1OBR -0.4* -0.5* -0.1 -0.4* -0.5* 0.4* 0.3* 0.3* 0.4* -0.2* 0 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.0* -0.4* -0.5* 1PRTN 0.3* 0.2* 0.3* 0.4* 0.2* -0.2* -0.2* 0 0.2* 0.3* 0.2 -0.1 -0.3* -0.5* 0 0.1 0.2* 0 1IRON 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3* 0.1 0.4* 0 -0.5* -0.3* -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 0.8* 1

* represents that P value is smaller than 5%.

• Economic indicators are positively correlated with each other

• negatively correlated with environmental indicators, except not with WUE & GWD

• and positively correlated with social indicators

Exploring interactions of indicators through Principal Component Analysis

• Principal Component Analysis is used to reduce high dimensionality.

• Visualize and interpret the comprehensive performance of sustainability for each country.

• The first three components can explain 69% of variance.

PC1 PC2 PC3AGDP 0.30 0.12 0.01RGDP 0.37 0.14 -0.04AEXP 0.26 -0.04 0.05A2F 0.40 0.08 0.10FCR 0.32 0.13 0.01WUE -0.19 0.59 0.07GWD -0.20 0.55 0.04Nsur -0.23 -0.23 0.27NUE -0.14 -0.14 0.31LUE 0.22 0.19 0.13LCC -0.18 -0.18 0.07GHG -0.10 -0.20 -0.05GUE 0.05 -0.03 -0.08T3R -0.05 -0.05 -0.23SSR 0.07 -0.07 0.02RHI 0.23 -0.31 -0.16UDN 0.29 0.01 -0.01OBR -0.19 0.07 0.17PRTN 0.15 -0.05 0.62IRON 0.05 -0.05 0.54Variance% 39.00 18.00 12.00

Projections of countries based on first and second principal components

Economic indicatorsLow High

Low

High

WU

E/Gr

ound

wat

er In

dica

tors

Take home messages

• Agriculture must be intensified in a sustainable manner to meet the SDGs of Life on Land and Zero Hunger

• The intuitive and easily visualized planetary boundary concept of a safe operating space for humanity has gained traction, despite concerns of oversimplification and scientific rigor

• Sustainable Agriculture Matrix of quantifiable indicators is also imperfect, but can help each country track its own progress and can provide a transparent basis for understanding differences among countries

• Trade-offs among environmental, economic, and social dimensions of agricultural sustainability should be revealed with user-friendly visualization of multi-dimensional issues

Thank you for your attention

Sustainable Agriculture MatrixABBR Indicator namesAGDP Agricultural GDP per agricultural workerA2F Access to finance

PVOL Crop price volatilityAEXP Gov. ag expenditure ratio over ag GDPTROP Agricultural openness of tradeGWD Groundwater depletionBLUE Blue water footprintNsur Nitrogen surplusPsur Phosphorus surplusLCC Land cover changeGHG Greenhouse gas emissions RSH Crop production diversityRSE Food affordability by low-income groupSSR Self-sufficiency ratio OBR Obesity rate

POA % of lactating women with anemia age 15-49

UDN Prevalence of undernourishmentRPV Rural poverty ratioGGG Global gender gap report score LRS Land security