2

Outline of Presentation

1. Background of the Study

2. Objectives of the Study

3. Study Area

4. Study Schedule

5. Organization to Carry-out the Study

6. Meetings

7. Study Methodology

3


Chronic traffic congestion is experienced in urban roads of Mega

cities, and urban road sections of inter-city roads.

This results to increase of travel time, failure of timely delivery of

goods and people, and loss of valuable time of people.

(i) Traffic Congestion is one of the serious problems of

the road sector

4

[Urban Roads in Mega Cities]

•Traffic Congestion throughout the day (particularly from 7:00AM to

10:00PM)

•Slow travel speed

- EDSA : 13-17 km/hr

- Ortigas Ave. : 7-9 km/hr

•Travel Demand Management

- Truck Ban

- Color Coding


5

TRAVEL

SPEED

(km/hr)

TRAFFIC

VOLUME

(AADT)

POPULATION

(1998)

Inter-city Road (L=123.5km)

[Inter-city Road]


6


Sound socio-economic development is adversely affected by

inefficient transport system, losing international competitiveness of

industry, and foreign and domestic investment.

(ii) Negative Impact of Traffic Congestion

7

Global Competitiveness Ranking

•Global competitiveness Ranking conducted by World Economic Forum to 131 countries showed that:

- Philippines is ranked 71st out of 131 countries

Problematic Factors Affecting Ranking:

(i) Infrastructure 94th

(ii) Labor Market Efficiency 100th

(iii) Quality of Institutions 95th

(iv) Health and Primary Education 86th

- Other ASEAN Countries:

- Singapore is ranked 7th

- Malaysia is ranked 21st

- Thailand is ranked 28th

- Indonesia is ranked 54th

- Vietnam is ranked 68th


8


(iii) DPWH Plans

DPWH has various plans such as:

- Development of expressway network

- Development of ring roads in the Regional Growth Pole Cities

- Construction of Bypasses along inter-city roads

These plans are not necessarily implemented well for various reasons:

- No masterplan with project implementation priority

- Lack of proper traffic data, particularly OD data, for assessment of

proposed projects

- Lack of proper implementation schemes involving private sector’s

participation

9

2. Objectives of the Study

Formulation of Development Strategy for High

Standard Highway Network

Formulation of High Standard Highway Masterplan

-Within 200 km radius of Metro Manila

-Metro Cebu

-Tagum – Davao – Gen. Santos Corridor

-Within 200 km radius of Metro Manila

10

3. Study Area

11

4. Study Schedule

Formulation of

Development Strategy for

HSH

Formulation of Masterplan for HSH

(5 months)

(9 months)

(15 months)

Final Report

Ap

r 2

00

9

Au

g 2

00

9

Se

pt

20

09

Ma

y 2

01

0

Ju

ne

2

01

0

12

5. Organization to Carry-out the Study

DPWH

GRP

JICA

GOJ

JICA

GOJ

Counterpart

Team

Study

Team

Study

Team

Technical

Working

Group

Steering

Committee

13

6. Meetings1

st S

H m

ee

tin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

IC/R

TWG

me

etin

g

2n

d S

H m

ee

tin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

IT/RTW

G m

ee

tin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

3rd

SH

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

PG/R

TWG

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

TWG

me

etin

g

Formulation of Development

Strategy for HSH Formulation of Masterpan for HSH Network

2009

4 5 6 7 8

2009 2010

9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5

TWG

me

etin

g

4th

SH

me

etin

gDF/R

SC

me

etin

g

SC

me

etin

g

SC

me

etin

g

SC

me

etin

g

L E G E N D

SC: Steering Committee

TWG: Technical Working Group

SH: Stakeholders

14


7.1 Study Procedure

Review of Current Status

and Identification of Issues

Confirmation of Environmental and Social Conditions

Current Traffic Condition Surveys

Identification of Issues of Road Traffic

Prep. of Present OD Table

Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH

Pre

pa

ratio

n, P

rese

nta

tio

n a

nd

Dis

cu

ssio

n o

f IT

/R

Traffic Demand Forecast

Concept and Principal Policy for

Development of HSH

Pre

pa

ratio

n, P

rese

nta

tio

n a

nd

Dis

cu

ssio

n o

f IC

/R

(i) Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH

Formulation of Future Socio-Economic Framework

15


(ii) Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network

Study on Future Road Network

Identification of Major

Projects for HSH

Development

Traffic Assign-ment

Analysis of

Traffic Assignment Results

Study on Future Road Network

Preliminary Design

of Selected HSHs

Selection of Priority

Projects

Reassignment

of Traffic

Volume

Project Cost Estimate & Project

Implementation Schedule

Project Impl Schemes

and Financial Analysis

Project Impl

Schedule

Economic Analysis

Financial Analysis

Initial Envi.

Examinati

on (IEE)

Formulation of Basic Plan

for Road Development

including HSH

Pre

pa

ratio

n, P

rese

nta

tio

n a

nd

Dis

cu

ssio

n o

f P

R/R

Pre

pa

ratio

n, P

rese

nta

tio

n a

nd

Dis

cu

ssio

n o

f D

R/R

Study on Project

Impl Scheme

Basic Plan for Road Development & Identification of

HSH Network Development

Selection of Roads

Required for HSH

Project Cost

Estimate

16


(iii) Strenghtening of Institutional / Organization Capacity of

DPWH

(1) Strengthening of DPWH’s Organization

(2) Recommendation of Design Standard’s for HSH

Collaboration Work

with TWG and Strengthening of

Capability

Ap

r 2

00

9

Fe

b 2

01

0

Ma

r 2

01

0

Ma

y 2

01

0

Recommen-dations

17


7.2 Formulation of Development Strategy for HSH

7.2.1 Review and Analysis of Current Status and Conditions and

Identification of Issues

1) Review of current Development Plans and Programs

2) Trend of Other Donor’s Aids

3) Natural and Environmental Conditions

4) Demographic and Economic Trend

5) Land Use Status

6) Major Transport Facilities and Transport Network

7) Road Conditions

8) Traffic Conditions

9) Budget and Administration Status

10)Status of O&M of road including Expressways

11)Review of Relevant Studies

18



7.2.2 Confirmation of Environmental and Social Conditions

1) Collection and review of existing reports, data and information

2) Features of study areas

3) Interviewing from stakeholders and support in stakeholder

meetings, if necessary

4) Recommendation in view of environment and social aspect in

preparation of development strategy

19



7.2.3 Traffic Condition Surveys (Traffic Surveys & Logistics Interview)

Survey Item Survey Time

Survey Stations*1)

Manila

(200km radius)

CebuDavao –

Gen. San Corridor

Total

(1)Traffic Count Survey

16-hour (6:00 – 20:00)(on a weekday)

30 12 16 58

24-hour (6:00–next 6:00)(on a weekday)

20 6 6 32

(2)Road Side OD Survey

12-hour (6:00 – 18:00)(on a week day)

20 6 6 32

(3)Travel Speed Survey

One time in the morning and evening each (on a weekday)

13 5 7 25

(4)W.T.P Survey

Purpose:To clarify the toll level accepted by users.Contents of the SurveyPersonal attribute; Willingness to pay a toll after expressway constructionTrip information (purpose, travel route, origin, departing time, destination, arriving time)

Traffic Surveys

20

Logistics Interview Survey

Survey Item Target for Interview

(1) Port / Airport Interview Survey 6 airports (3 for Metro Manila 200-km sphere, 1 for Metro

Cebu, 2 for Mindanao)

10 ports (5 for Metro Manila 200-km sphere, 2 for Metro

Cebu, 3 for Mindanao)

(2) Logistics / Trucking

Companies Interview Survey

Metro Manila, Cebu city, Davao city, General Santos city

15 logistic companies, 15 trucking companies

(3) Truck OD Survey at Ports /

Airports

Truck OD Survey at Port / Airport

Trucks outgoings / incomings from / into airports and ports

(4) Eco-zones and Manufacturing

Companies Interview Survey

Interview Survey at Economic Zone

Interviewing from various companies located in special

economic zones

Manila 200-km sphere (Tarlac, Clark, Subic and Cavite

economic zones)

Cebu Econ-zones

Davao and Gen. Santos Eco-zones


21

DPWH Data

16 Hour Traffic Count

24 Hour Traffic Count / OD Survey

L E G E N D

C-OD-1

C-OD-2

C-OD-3

C-OD-4C-OD-5

C-OD-6

C-1

C-2

C-3C-4

C-5

C-6

201

202

203

204

Map Metro Cebu (1/2)

Traffic Survey Location

Map

22

DPWH Data



C-7

C-8

C-9

C-10 C-11

C-12

C-13

C-14L E G E N D

210

209

208

207205

201

206

Traffic Survey Location


23

Route-2

Route-1



L E G E N D

C-OD-1

C-OD-2

C-OD-3

C-OD-4C-OD-5

C-OD-6

C-1

C-2

C-3C-4

C-5

C-6

Traffic Speed Suevey

DPWH Data

Metro Cebu (1/2)

Travel Speed Survey

Location Map

24

Route-3

Route-5

Route-4

Route-3

Route-2

Route-1


C-7

C-8

C-9

C-10 C-11

C-12

C-13

C-14

L E G E N D

DPWH Data


Traffic Speed Suevey

Travel Speed Survey Location


25

Analysis of Results of Traffic Survey

Item of Survey Viewpoint of Analysis

Traffic Count Survey

• Share of traffic by vehicle type• Peak ratio and peak time

• Fluctuation of traffic by time• V/C & service level

Road side OD Survey

• OD Matrix for traffic passing survey points (part of OD Table)

• Socio-economic interdependence of cities

• Purpose of road use

Travel Speed Survey

• Travel speed of a section• Correlation between travel

speed and the extent of traffic congestion

• Causes of delay

WTP Survey• Road users’ acceptance to

pay toll• Toll level accepted by road

users

Freight OD Survey

• Service area of each port and airport

• Goods treated at each port and airport, and their OD

Interview Survey (1)

• Logistics system• Bottle necks in logistics• OD of goods treated

• Logistics generation points• Transport cost

Interview Survey(2)

•OD and route of material and processed goods

• Problems in terms of transport

Interview Survey (1) : interview to distributor and transport companyInterview Survey (2) : interview at special economic zone

7. Study MethodologySu

rve

y f

or

Log

istic

s

26


7.2.4 Preparation of Present OD Table

Comparison of Both Traffic

Volumes

Collection & Analysis of Socio-Economic Data

Roadside OD Survey

Travel Speed Survey

Road Inventory Survey

Traffic Count Survey

Known OD Q – V Curve Road Network

Zone Features(Population, GRDP,

etc.)Prediction Model

for OD Traffic Volume

Initial Value of Unknown OD

Roadside OD Survey

Total OD MatrixCorrection of Unknown OD

(Maximum Entropy Method) Traffic Assignment

Assigned Traffic Volume

Traffic Volume by Link

Completion

NO

YES

27


7.2.5 Formulation of Socio-economic Framework

Indicators for Socio-Economic Framework

•Population and Its Increase Rate

•GRDP and Its Increase Rate

•Industrial Structure and No. of Employees

•Productivity by Industry

•No. of Vehicle Registration

•Area by land use

(i) Target Year 2030

(ii) Intermediate Target Year 2020

28


7.2.6 Traffic Demand Forecast

Ste

p 1

:G

en

era

tio

n

& A

ttra

ctio

nSte

p 2

:D

istr

ibu

tio

nSte

p 3

:M

od

al S

plit

Ste

p 4

:Tr

aff

icA

ssig

nm

en

t

Present Socio -Economic

Indicators by zone

Present OD Matrix

Future Socio -Economic Indicators

by zone

Future Road Network

Generation and Attraction Model

Distribution Model

Modal Split Model

Traffic Assignment Model(Diversion Rate)

Forecast of Scale of Generation & Attraction by Zone

(No. of passengers & Loaded Volume)

Traffic Volume Distribution Forecast

Modal Split Traffic Volume Forecast

Traffic Assignment Forecast(No. of Vehicles by Vehicle

Type)

•No. of Average Passenger

•No. of Average Loaded Volume

L E G E N D

Data Input (Requirement for Input)Calculation ModelOutput

29


7.2.7 Identification of Problems/Issues on Road Traffic (1/2)

Approach 1: Comparison with Appropriate Status of Road Traffic

Economic ActivitiesIndustrial activity, job gaining activity, business activity

Social Activities

Access to public facilities

Access to daily and non-daily activities

Escape route during emergency evacuationsSafety and security

Environment

CO2 emissions

Noise and vibration

Air pollutantNatural park and green areas to be preserved

Urban Structure / Development Plan

Present urban structure and its future direction. Present and future development plan

30


7.2.7 Identification of Problems/Issues on Road Traffic (2/2)

Approach 2: Identification of Causes of Road Traffic Problems

Traffic

Excessive demand, Poor accessibility, Poor traffic flow caused by

mixing of local traffic and through traffic, Poor traffic flow caused by

defect of travel conditions, Mixture of pedestrians and vehicles

Road Network

Shortage of traffic capacity, Imbalance between demand and traffic

capacity, Inefficiency, Problems of road network from the view point of

functional hierarchy, Defect of pavement, Road maintenance

Traffic ManagementPoor traffic control, Inappropriate traffic regulation (mixture of through

traffic in the city center with local traffic)

Organization/SystemAuthority/power, Overlap of function, Complication, Weakening of

organization/system

Fund Delay of project progress due to shortage of investment fund on

transport sector, Shortage of procurement of private fund

Environment and

Social

Considerations

Land acquisition, Land price, Compensation cost, Regulation, System

Air pollutant, Noise, Vibration

Natural park, Restriction / Regulation

Others Traffic safety (accident prone spots, education, regulation)

31


7.2.8 Concept and Principal Policy for Development of High Standard

Highway

(i) Definition ( to be clearly established in the course of the Study)

Definition in the I/A

Roads providing smooth traffic flow with full access

control and/or limited access, including expressway as

well as primary arterial and bypass

32


7.2.8 Concept and Principal Policy for Development of High Standard

Highway

(ii) Image of High Standard Highway

33


7.2.9 Formulation of Development

Strategy for High Standard Highway

Preliminary Image for

Metro Cebu

34


7.3 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network

7.3.1 Study on Future Road Network

Work Items for Study on Future Road Network

(1) Traffic Assignment: Traffic assignment (present and future OD) to

present road network is carried out.

(2) Analysis of Results of Traffic Assignment: With the results of traffic

assignment, traffic volume of each section, congestion degree

by section and through traffic share by section are analyzed.

(3) Study on Future Road Network: Considering the land use plan,

development plan and environment in the study areas, issues on

present road network are analyzed and principal policy is to be

established in planning of future road network.

35



7.3.2 Formulation of Overall Road Development Plan and

Identification of High Standard Highway Development Projects

Overall road development plan will be formulated. Based on

development strategy of high standard highway, routes to be

applied for high standard will be selected. Based on this plan,

major high standard highway development projects will be

identified. In the formulation of the overall road development

plan, road map showing road class and its function will be

prepared at the scale of 1/50,000.

36



7.3.3 Preliminary Design of High Standard Highway Development

Projects

Preliminary design for the high standard highway

development projects identified in the above will be carried

out including the road structures and necessary facilities.

Standard cross sections, preliminary plan and longitudinal

profile will be prepared with the scale of 1/10,000 topography

maps and pictures.

37



(i) Project Cost Estimate

-Construction Cost

-Land Acquisition Cost

-Compensation Cost for Resettlement

-Detailed Design / Construction Cost Supervision Cost

-Operation and Maintenance Cost

(ii) Preliminary Schedule for Project Implementation

7.3.4 Project Cost Estimate and Project Implementation Schedule

38



7.3.5 Economic Analysis

Economic Analysis

(1) Calculation of Benefit

Vehicle operating costs savings, time cost savings, maintenance cost savings

Such indirect benefits as benefits from regional development and benefits from reduction

of effects of traffic accidents, etc. will not be considered due to uncertainty of accuracy.

(2) Economic Cost

Economic cost will be calculated applying shadow rate and excluding taxes.

(3) Indicators for Evaluation

Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C), Net Present Value (NPV)

(4) Sensitive Analysis

The following factors for the analysis will be considered to identify the factors having high

sensitivity to B/C.

-Construction Cost (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%, ±15%)

-Traffic Volume (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%, ±15%)

-Vehicle Travel Cost (variation rate: ±5%, ±10%)-Time Unit Cost of Passenger (1/2, 0, in case of gradual increase with increase in future

income level)

39



7.3.6 Initial Environmental Examination (IEE)

IEE will be carried out for each Project, identifying

a) Factors adversely affecting environmental and social

conditions, and preparation of an environmental check

list,

b) Measures to mitigate adverse impacts, including

alternatives of the project,

c) Whether the project requires EIA.

40



7.3.7 Study on Project Implementation Schemes and Financial

Analysis

(i) Project Implementation Schemes

Project implementation schemes including Public-Private Partnership

(PPP) will be studied. In this study, procedures so as to encourage

private sector’s participation in appropriate manner will be studied in

detail, which include method of securing financial resources as

burden sharing between public and private, constructing toll road

with financial assistance from donors, etc.

In this respect, financial feasibility study of the projects will be

conducted, appropriately estimating investment costs necessary for

each stage and maintenance cost. In particular, for fund and other

burden sharing between public and private, risk analysis will be

carried out and each responsibility will be made clear in transparent

manner.

41

Option Role of Public Sector Role of Private Sector

Option 1 (BOT Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition • Construction, operation and maintenance

Option 2(Shadow Toll

Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition• Subsidy for shortage in toll

revenue

• Construction, operation and maintenance

Option 3(Subsidy Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition• Sharing of construction

cost

• Sharing of construction cost• Construction, operation and

maintenance

Option 4(Segment Dividing

Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition for entire road section

• Construction of a certain section

• Construction of remaining section

• Operation and maintenance for entire section

Option 5(Purchase Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition

• Construction

• Purchasing after completion of the project

• Operation and maintenance

Option 6(O & M Method)

• R.O.W. acquisition

• Construction

• Operation and maintenance



Project Implementing Scheme by PPP

42




Analysis

(ii) Major Risks

Design and Construction Risks(Engineering risks related to construction)

Economic and Financial RisksFinancial factors (interest rate, exchange rate)Commitment of loan

Operating RisksRevenue risk in operationEngineering risk in operation

Indirect Risks due to Circumstances of Projects

Inevitable AccidentNatural disaster, armed conflict

Macro-economics RisksEconomic crisis, financial crisis

Risks in System and LegislationChange in environment law, assets and liabilities method and etc.

43




Analysis

(iii) Financial Analysis

Financial Statements

- Earning statement

- Balance sheet

- Cash Receipt and Disbursement

- Financial Internal Rate of Return

44



7.3.8 Selection of Priority Projects

Indicators for Selection of Priority Projects

Urgency Classifying into A, B, C, etc. corresponding to the

extent of urgency of each project based on the site

survey and discussion with GRP

Benefits Estimating and classifying such effects of benefits as

reduction of transport costs, reduction of consumer

prices, expansion of productivities, increase in tax

revenue by expansion of productivities.

Economic Viability Classifying each project corresponding to such as

range of EIRR and/or B/C.

Extent of Easiness for

Project Implementation

Classifying easiness in terms of resettlement,

environmental problems and legislations and system

within the scale of possible amount for investment.

Environment and Social

Impact Assessment

Classifying each project based on difficulty of issue of

ECC and the scale of impacts on natural and social

environment.

45



7.3.9 Formulation of Masterplan for HSH Network summarizing all

studies, Masterplans will be formulated.

46


7.4 Strengthening of Organization of DPWH

After reviewing O & M system of roads and expressways administrated

by DPWH and analyzing problems and issues, the O & M system for high

standard highway will be recommended.

BOD of DPWH had issued “Design Guidelines, Criteria and Standards” as

present design standards in the Philippines. This covers road design,

bridge design, drainage facilities and so on, basically complying with

AASHTO Design standards. Design standards for high standard highway

will be recommended through reviewing DPWH standards and design

standards in Japan, U.S.A. and other countries.

(i) Strengthening of Management Capability

(ii) Recommendation on Design Standards for High Standard Highway

47

Thank you for your attention

the study of master plan on high standard highway network

Documents