the story of delivery under blair michael barber moscow higher school of economics december 2009
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The Story of Delivery under BlairMichael Barber
Moscow Higher School of Economics December 2009
2
“A mandate for reform…an
instruction to deliver”
Tony Blair, on the meaning of the General Election he
had just won by a landslide, 8 June 2001.
3
CAUSES OF FAILURE IN BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS
•Complacency
•Lack of guiding coalition
•Underestimating vision
•Under-communicating
•Not removing obstacles
•No short-term wins
•Declaring victory too soon
•Not changing the culture
SOURCE: John Kotter
4
CAUSES OF FAILURE IN GOVERNMENT
•Cynicism – track record of failure
•Multiple small projects
•Watered-down compromise
•Lack of persistence
•Institutional inertia
•Poor design
•Lack of clarity about goals
•Incompetence
SOURCE: Instruction to Deliver
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… A MAP OF DELIVERY …
Boldness of reform
Quality of execution
CONTROVERSY WITHOUT IMPACT
STATUS QUO
TRANS-FORMATION
IMPROVED OUTCOMES
Successful delivery
TRANS-FORMATION
IMPROVED OUTCOMES
6
… AND DEVELOPING AMONG STAFF AN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT DELIVERY REQUIRES
• Structure, culture, results• Avoid celebrating success too soon
Ambition
Irreversibility
Focus
Clarity
Urgency
• Believe in step change• Get it done as well as possible
• Clear sustained priorities• Avoiding distractions
• “Confront the brutal facts”• Know what’s happening now• Understand stakeholders
• People are impatient• “If everything seems under control, you’re
not going fast enough”
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TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
An Asian government relied on collaborative workshops and surveys to develop shared aspirations
* Numbers are not actualsSOURCE: McKinsey delivery team
A series of surveys with Cabinet Ministers were used to develop an initial list of six priority areas…
…then the six areas were tested again through a second set of surveys with Cabinet Ministers
National aspirations
Crime
Corruption
Education
Poverty
Transport
Basic InfrastructureCrime Educ-
ationCorr-uption
Pov-erty
Trans-port
Basic infra-structure
No response
YesNo
Do you agree with the following aspirations?*
Because key officials were involved throughout the process, the system leader knew aspirations were widely shared
The aspirations were finalized as part of a two-day delivery workshop
AGENDA – DAY 1
WelcomeSession 1Working group**Break**Share outLunchSession 2
9:009:1510:0011:0011:1512:001:00
Refine existing or define new aspirations
3
Nati
on
al g
overn
men
t in
Asi
a
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TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
10
KEY QUESTIONS TO ANSWER IN A DELIVERY PLAN
• What is the service delivery chain?
• Who is accountable at the top . . . and all along the delivery chain?
• What are the key actions (milestones)?
• What is the timetable?
• Who are the key stakeholders? How will they be brought on board?
• What are the major risks? How will they be managed?
• What impact will the actions have on the key outcomes (trajectories)?
• What data do you need? Will it be early enough to act if progress is off track?
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CONSTRUCTING A TRAJECTORY
Can you break the data down
by locality?
Can you break the data down
by policy?Can you break the data down by category?
What is the performance
indicator?
What is the target?
How will you collect the
data?What is the historic data
run?
How will you estimate the
future?
Constructing a trajectory
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POLICY DELIVERY – TRAJECTORIES
97 98 99 00 01 0296 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Mid-term delivery goal
Long-term strategic goal
Historical performance
Delivery indicator
Low trajectory (policy
has a lagged impact)
Mid-trajectory
High trajectory (policy has an immediate impact)
Policy step A
Policy step B
Policy step C
Project plan streams
Project plan streams
progress indicators
Starting Point
A key tool in evaluating the activity’s implementation is a delivery chain analysis
Delivery chain
Delivery system
Policy
DirectionDepartment of Education
Department
National Strategy
National Agencies
School district
Testing authority
School inspection unit
Teacher training agency
180
Local Agencies Frontline
Independent Provi-ders Other Schools Networks
Principal training agency
School18,500
Newly qualified teachersteaching assistants
Built Strategy into Training
Provided Training
Advice and Support
Provided National Testing Regime
Inspection and Reporting
Parents
Pupils
Pressure for improve-ments
Users and Citizens
Example: delivery system analysis for national literacy strategy in the UK
Head TeachersSubject Leaders
SOURCE: USEDI Delivery Handbook
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TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
A delivery unit’s purpose, organization, and activities all must be directed at helping the system achieve its aspirations
Purpose
▪ Implement the aspirations defined by the system leader
▪ Promote urgent and visible action
▪ Amplify system leader’s authority over actors in the system
▪ Ensure forward momentum toward aspiration, despite of bureaucratic inertia
▪ Small, highly capable, responsive group of people
▪ Reports directly to the system leader and has leader’s visible backing
▪ Strong performance-driven, results-oriented culture
▪ Monitor progress toward aspirations– Collect and analyze
relevant data– Coordinate individuals to
make sure results are on track
▪ Report regularly to system leader
▪ Take corrective action as necessary to achieve aspirations
Organization Key activities
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TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS
1. Determine priorities
2. Set targets/ define success
3. Understand the challenge
4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories
5. Understand the delivery chain
6. Build capacity at every level including the centre
7. Create routines
8. Solve problems as they arise
9. Establish the right relationships
10. Persist…
Consider what is necessary to build support for aspirations at each level of the system
Guiding coalition members model change and communicate to the broader workforce, who have day-to-day responsibility for driving progress toward aspirations
Guiding coalition members interact directly with mid-tier leaders, helping develop their commitment and capabilities to achieve aspirations
Members of the guiding coalition act as the first set of core supporters and push others in the system to support the aspirations
Finally, the guiding coalition members help ensure that end users and the public see the impact of the change
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Guiding Coalition
33
44
Working from the center, the guiding coalition gradually ▪ Builds a widening network of relationships to deliver the system’s
aspiration▪ Develops leadership capacity throughout the system
SOURCE: John Kotter; Michael Fullan, The Six Secrets of Change
I know what I want…but we’re so far from achieving it
We’re not bold enough…all too incremental
This is tough and the civil service needs to change
At last some results…what should the next phase be like?
Real progress… but why did all the drive have to come from my office?
The Prime Minister’s agenda is right…but the pressure from him is relentless
I feel huge pressure from the public and Opposition to communicate.How do I get this department to really deliver?
It’s a real battle…and the public and media are never satisfied
In the end, the PMDU and targets ensured we stayed focused
Tough but worth it
The minister drives us hard…and the staff don’t know what to do
Is this just about the election result…or transforming Britain?
We seem to be antagonizing people at the frontline
We need to develop our collective capabilities
We’re proud of our results…but the next phase will be harder
Prime Minister
Ministers
Top civil servants
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Consider both immediate and long-term communication needs, as stakeholders’ concerns likely will evolve
In the UK PMDU, stakeholders’ perspectives evolved over the course of the delivery effort
Nati
on
al g
overn
men
t in
Eu
rop
e
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The problem of Autumn: Grinding out improved rail reliability
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RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED AN ALL-TIME LOW AFTER THE HATFIELD CRASH IN OCTOBER 2000
Source: Department of Transport
National actual PPM (period data)
PP
M
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 040%
Hatfield crash
21
RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR
Source: Department of Transport
National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)
National actual PPM (period data)
National moving annual average
PP
M
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 040%
Post Hatfield peak
Hatfield crash
22
RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR
Source: Department of Transport
National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA)
National actual PPM (period data)
National moving annual average
PP
M
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Mar 97 Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 040%
Post Hatfield peak
Hatfield crash
Autumn performance almost at pre-Hatfield levels
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RAIL: THE MESSAGES ARE CLEAR
1. Establish a shared goal
• Demanding and realistic• Align key players around the goal
2. Manage performance
• Don’t just connect the data, use it• Monthly reviews with each train operating company
3. It’s all in the detail
• Whistles and watches• Joint Control Centres
4. Autumn shouldn’t be a surprise
• The weather is a variable• Preparation should be constant
THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ENABLES THE LIKELIHOOD OF DELIVERY TO BE PREDICTED
Department …………………….
PSA Target ……………………
Degree of challenge
Quality of planning, implementation and
performance management
Capacity to drive progress
Stage of delivery
Judgement Rating Rationale summary
Likelihood of delivery
Recent performance
Likelihood of delivery
Red Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action
Amber/Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action
Amber/Green Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good
Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation
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ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: EXAMPLE
AG
Likelihood of delivery
Red
Amber/Red
Amber/Green
Green
N
Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action
Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action
Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good
Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation
Not enough evidence
Additional Comments
We need to achieve 95% in June for the overall rating not to move to amber/red
Evidence for assessment Version 0.3
Jul-04Department
AreaLevel PSA level / PSA sub-
target level / 2005 Delivery Goal
Dept A
PSA 4
PSA level
Recent performance
Performance has lifted from 91.1% for the month of January 2004 to 94.3% for the month of April 2004
JudgementOverall rating
Degree of challenge
Quality of planning,
implementation, and performance
management
Capacity to drive
progress
VH
AR
AG
Rationale summary
Stage of delivery 2
The stage is borderline 2/3. Programme and project management and data collection and monitoring are all fully established and there is full confidence that all of the necessary strategies are now in place as a result of agreement on the 5-point plan. Stakeholder communication is good and pressure and support are being successfully combined to drive implementation forwards.
The target is a complex one. This is due primarily to the agreement on a 5-point plan (to Clarify the Target, Improve Incentives, Refocus Support from Agency , provide tools to improve and strengthen Leadership & Performance) which is now being actively and effectively implemented. Recent progress in two other areas further supports this reassessment. The xxxxx paper for launch in May will put the weight of the colleges behind the change in attitudes and new ways of working required in order to deliver the target. The publication of the xxxx review also sets a clear direction. Together they effect a step change in ability to overcome the key blockages impeding target delivery.
There is now a single plan based on the core 5-point plan agreed with PMDU, a single agenda and a very solid infrastructure to the programme which ensures control of all contributing teams and strategies. Effective governance and rigorous measuring and monitoring of deliverables and performance are fully established alongside a comprehensive and well directed programme of intervention in challenged areas. The management of risks and interdependencies is now well underway. Existing plans just need refinement and systematic implementation. Performance management is already proving effective and will be deployed increasingly as the target date approaches.
A very effective leadership team have ensured that the right people, action plans, knowledge and performance management are all in place for continuing progress on the 5-point plan to be assured. Further capacity to drive is anticipated from the recruitment of an implementation manager and being able to firm up the long term contribution and commitment of key resources. Phased incentives and the star ratings plus clear focus on this have provided the necessary levers and put capacity to deliver on a firm footing.
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Overall Judgement
DeptDegree of challenge
Quality of planning, implementation and
performance management
Capacity to drive progress
Stage of Delivery
Likelihood of Delivery
V High - High - Red - Amber/Red - Amber/Green - Red - Amber/Red - 1 Policy Red - Amber/Red - VH - H - M - L R - AR - AG - G R - AR - AG - G 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 R - AR - AG - G
July 2004 Rank (out of
21)
Assessment Criteria
THE DELIVERY REPORT: LEAGUE TABLE – JULY 2004
Rank (out of
21)
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PROGRESS ON THE PRIME MINISTER’S PRIORITIES CAN BE SUMMARISED IN A LEAGUE TABLE
Overall Judgement
DeptDegree of challenge
Quality of planning, implementation and
performance management
Capacity to drive progress
Stage of Delivery
Likelihood of Delivery
V High - High - Red - Amber/Red - Amber/Green - Red - Amber/Red - 1 Policy Red - Amber/Red - VH - H - M - L R - AR - AG - G R - AR - AG - G 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 R - AR - AG - G
A PSA 1 L G G 3 G = 1B PSA 2 L G AG 2 G = 1C PSA 3 H AG AG 3 G 3D PSA 4 H G AG 3 AG 4A PSA 5 VH G AG 2 AG 5B PSA 6 H AG AG 3 AG 6C PSA 7 H AG AG 2 AG = 7D PSA 8 H AG AG 3 AG = 7A PSA 9 H AG AG 2 AG = 7B PSA 10 VH AG AG 2 AG = 10C PSA 11 VH AG AG 2 AG = 10D PSA 12 H AR AG 3 AG 12A PSA 13 VH AR AG 2 AR 13B PSA 14 VH AG AR 2 AR = 14C PSA 15 VH AG AR 2 AR = 14D PSA 16 VH AR AR 2 AR = 16A PSA 17 VH AR AR 2 AR = 16B PSA 18 H AG AR 3 R = 18C PSA 19 H AG AR 2 R = 18D PSA 20 VH AG AR 3 R 20A PSA 21 VH R R 2 R 21
July 2004 Rank (out of
21)
Assessment Criteria
Rank (out
of 21)
= 1= 1
3
456
= 7= 7= 7 = 10 = 10
1213
= 14 = 14 = 16 = 16 = 18 = 18
20
21
A SIMPLE INDICATOR OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE CAN BE DESIGNED
5347
December 2003, %
BETWEEN DECEMBER 2003 AND JULY 2004 THERE WAS A 15% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN …
38
62
July 2004, %
… AND BY DECEMBER 2004 A FURTHER 21% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN
17
83
December 2004, %
TRANSFORMATION WILL DEPEND ON COMBINING THREE ELEMENTS
The right mindset
• ‘Guiding coalition’
• Shared vision
• Ambition
• Clear priorities
• Ministerial consistency
• Urgency
• Capacity to learn rapidly
• Collaboration across government
Bold reform
• Choice
• Personalisation
• Responsiveness to the community
• Contestability
• Vibrant supply side
• Serious investment
• 3 year funding for frontline
• Flexible deployment of staff
Effective performance management
• Targets
• Sharp accountability
• Good real-time data
• Best practice transfer
• Transparency
• Management against trajectory
• Capacity to intervene where necessary
• Incentives to reward success