the status of the multi-satellite precipitation analysis and insights gained from adding new data...

The Status of the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and Insights Gained from Adding

New Data Sources

G.J. Huffman1,2, R.F. Adler1, D.T. Bolvin1,2, E.J. Nelkin1,2

1: NASA/GSFC Laboratory for Atmospheres2: Science Systems and Applications, Inc.

Outline

1. MPA Status

2. Satellite Observation Noise

3. Estimating Error

4. (Validation Data Issues)

5. Summary

Instant-aneousSSM/ITRMMAMSRAMSU

30-day HQ coefficients

3-hourly merged HQ

Hourly IR Tb

Hourly HQ-calib IR precip

3-hourly multi-satellite (MS)

Monthly gauges

Monthly SG

Rescale 3-hourly MS to monthly SG

Rescaled 3-hourly MS

Calibrate High-Quality (HQ) Estimates to

“Best”

Merge HQ Estimates

Match IR and HQ, generate coeffs

Apply IR coefficients

Merge IR, merged HQ estimates

Compute monthly satellite-gauge

combination (SG)

30-day IR coefficients

1. MPA STATUS

The MPA has been upgraded to produce both improved real-time (3B42RT) and new post-real-time (3B42) data sets

Code to include AMSR-E and AMSU-B precip estimates in the MPA is in operational testing

The “old” real-time is available for February 2002 – present

The post-real-time is available for January 1998 – December 1998, and continuing reprocessing at 5x real time

2. SATELLITE OBSERVATION NOISE

Different sensors “see” different physical scenes

Microwave “sees” hydrometeors

along front

IR “sees” clouds ahead of front

The inferred precip is in different

places that are synoptically

consistent; but the microwave is

better

2. SAT. OBS. NOISE (cont.)

IR vs. microwave for full resolution: 3-hr 0.25°x0.25°;

00, 03, …, 21Z 15 Feb 2002 Latitude band 30°N-S

Errors are equitably distributed on either side of the 1:1 line by design of the IR calibration.

But, details of IR and microwave patterns differ.

Scene classification might be helpful (Sorooshian et al.).


So, we try to get as many microwave TRMM PR (red)sensors as possible (i.e., do GPM). TRMM TMI (cyan)

SSM/I (3 sat.; yellow)But, details in the microwave observations AMSR-E (blue)Can cause noise in the precip estimates AMSU-B (3 sat.; green)If they’re not properly handled. IR (black)


Coincident 0.25°-gridbox GPROF-AMSR and -TMI estimates for February 2004

0 10 20 30AMSR Precip (mm/h)

TM

I P

reci

p (m

m/h

) 0

1020

3040

±15 min

0 10 20 30AMSR Precip (mm/h)

±30 min

0 10 20 30 40AMSR Precip (mm/h)

±60 min

The “standard” 3-hr time window for coincidence introduces error

• same grid box for spatial coincidence• ±15-, ±30-, ±60-minute windows of time coincidence• points near axes at ±60 result from advection into/out of box,

and/or growth/decay• limiting the window decreases the microwave data in each period• time interpolation, such as in morphing, helps avoid this error


Conic scanners (SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E)

Scan lines are segments of a cycloidal pattern. The along-track separation is the same everywhere, but the curvature causes over-sampling at the edges.

Satellite

motion

Pixels at scan edges uniquely represent an area about 40% smaller than at scan center.

Satellite

motion


Cross-track scanners (IR, AMSU)

Pixels grow as viewing angle grows away from nadir. Also, oversampling in the along-track direction occurs at the edges.

Changing pixel size changes the observed precipitation rates

scan center

scan edgesscan edges

3. ESTIMATING ERROR

Bowman, Phillips, North (2003, GRL) validation by TOGA TAO gauges

4-year average of Version 5 TRMM TMI and PR

• 1°x1° satellite, 12-hr gauge, each centered on the other• each point is a buoy • wind bias in the gauges is not corrected• the behavior seems nearly linear over the entire range

Slope = 0.96 Slope = 0.68

3. ESTIMATING ERROR (cont.)

Monthly accumulations of GPCP Version 2 versus Pacific atolls for 2.5°x2.5° boxes

• more spread than 4-yearaverage

• part of spread is due to gauge uncertainty (Gebremichael et al, 2003, Steiner et al. 2003)

• basis of bias still uncertain

Mean = 3.2 mm/dBias Ratio = 1.04MAE = 5.3 mm/d


Daily accumulations of MPA (3B42RT) versus CPC analysis for 0.25°x0.25° boxes

• 13Z 30 July – 12Z 31 July 2004 from CPC validation site

• correlation continues togo down, as expected


Which “satellite” estimate matches the “observations” better?

time

amou

nt

obs. sat.1 sat.2

The uncertainties are multi-scale

• sat.1 is better than sat.2• the usual 2 = (sat – obs)2 yields the same bad score for both• the improvement can be revealed with “some” averaging, but

how much? The answer depends on the averaging.• what does the user want to know?• fine-scale forecasts have the same problem


At the monthly scale there are a few bulk formulae for estimating random error (Huffman; Gebremichael and Krajewski)

• even these need information not all data sets provide• better schemes are needed that separately represent sampling

and algorithmic error

An estimator is needed for bias on coarse scales

• Tom Smith is working on this • sticking point is possible dependence on weather regime• Implication: regime-dependent bias would look like extra

random error when the regimes aren’t represented

At “fine” time/space scales we have a lot to do • the cleanest possible match-ups are critical


There is no practical approach for averaging up the fine-scale errors to provide a consistent estimate of the coarser-scale errors.

• should there be separate estimates of correlated and uncorrelated errors on the fine scale?

Speculation: accounting for weather regime and underlying surface type will turn out to be important for getting clean answers.

Validating combination estimates has the additional challenge that

• the relative weight given different inputs fluctuates, and• the different inputs usually have different statistical properties


The precip error in no-rain areas needs to be explicitly estimated

X

Y

• error is certainly not zero for every zero-rain estimate• some locations are very certain not to contain rain, while the

no-rain estimate is much less certain in others• error estimates in zero-rain areas might be helpful in merging

different rain estimates• what does the user want to know?• this is likely an algorithm-dependent calculation – GPROF is

heading towards this in Version 7

+ ++

Rain EstimatePossible Estimate of Error

4. VALIDATION DATA ISSUES

The lack of validation is true even at the 2.5° monthly scale.

A standard monthly gauge analysis provides ≥5 gauges only in some land areas. We can’t assume

correct monthly validation in the rainforests!

4. VALIDATION DATA ISSUES (cont.)

We need to pursue the best in situ technologies

• redundant gauge siting (Krajewski, TRMM Office)• dual-polarization radar• revisit optical rain gauges? (Weller, Bradley, Lukas [2004 J.Tech.] think they’ve figured out TOGA COARE data)

• acoustic rain gauges (Nystuen)• solid precipitation in general

– solid precipitation is the next frontier for satellites; validation is a substantial issue

We need to develop more surface validation sites• ensure that the data get shared• sample additional climate regimes

– mid-latitude ocean– snowy land

• develop long-term strategies without breaking the bank– IPWG working with continental-scale validation efforts (Ebert - Australia, Janowiak - U.S., Kidd - Europe)

5. SUMMARY

The MPA is ready to include “all” the standard microwave data.

The original satellite data have features that can cause “noise” if they’re not properly handled.

• IR doesn’t respond to hydrometeors per se• wide time windows mix non-coincident data• different pixels along a scan represent different things

Error estimation remains a substantial problem.

• finer-scale match-ups are intrinsically more noisy• we need concepts and methodology for making and inter-relating

quantitative estimates of error across the range of scales • in particular, we need to develop bias estimates and estimates of

error in non-raining areas

Surface observations can help us understand the behavior of the satellite estimates. We need to:

• develop more data sites, including areas with snow• emphasize clean match-ups of surface and global data

3. ESTIMATING ERROR

Precipitation is

• non-negative • intermittent• highly variable over the known range of time scales• loosely coupled to larger-scale controls

The usual notion of error is

Pest (x,y,t) = [ Ptrue (x,y,t) + r (x,y,t) ] • B (x,y)

estimated precipitation(what we actually see)

true precipitation(what validationIs supposed to

tell us)

random error(zero-mean

random parameter)

bias error(persists when time averaging

should have damped out the random error)

results from algorithmicerror or sampling errorresults from algorithmicerror or sampling error

2. SAT. OB. NOISE (cont.)

Both TMI and AMSU-B have a problem detecting light precipitation over ocean; AMSU-B is worse

AMSU-B compensates for low occurrence of precip by having more high rates

Probability matching can control rates, but can’t invent rain in zero-rain areas


How are these two “satellite” estimates best merged?

time

amou

nt

sat.1 sat.2

• Any linear weighting scheme will damage the statistics:- fractional coverage will be too high- maximum and conditional rainrates will be too low


Real rain patterns are messy!

Rainfall for DC area, July 1994

Convective rain has very short correlation distances – even for a

month

The original D.C. is 50% of a 0.25° grid box at latitude 40°

3. ESTIMATING ERROR (cont.) Satellite-buoy validation

Buoy

TMI

4. VALIDATION DATA ISSUES (cont.)

The primary difficulties are• lighter precipitation rates• snowy/icy/frozen surface defeats current microwave schemes

- prevents direct estimates and calibration for IR• IR tends to be decoupled from precipitation processes• surface calibration/validation data are sparse

“Complex terrain” can induce variations the satellites miss• strong variations in short distances• “warm rain enhancement” on windward slopes not retrievable

Sounding channels – TOVS, AIRS – the current best choice• GPCP SG and 1DD both use TOVS at high lat./alt.• group funded to put sounder data in the MPA globally

GPM (and others) have driven recent work evaluating additional channels• evaluating deployment of sounder channels that don’t see the sfc.

the status of the multi-satellite precipitation analysis and insights gained from adding new data...

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