the state of the sd economyboardsandcommissions.sd.gov/bcuploads/gcea051315.pdf · 2015-05-14 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
The State of the SD
Economy
Presentation to the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors
May 13, 2015 Ralph J. Brown, Professor Emeritus of Economics
University of South Dakota
Outline of Presentation
Overview of US economy
US economy forecast
SD economy
Summary & Conclusions
US Forecast
Global Insight Forecast –May 7, 2015
Real GDP
Consumption
Housing Starts
Federal Budget
Interest Rates and Inflation
GDP
GDP growth in the 1st
QTR was only
0.2% and will probably be revised
downward.
Special factors such FEB weather, the
dock strike, the energy sector were at
work.
2nd
QTR growth will also be lackluster
Weak inventory growth and continued
energy sector contraction will shave
about 1.4% off GDP growth.
Only modest pickup in the 2nd
half.
Bad 1st
Quarter
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1997-2007
3.0%
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Actual Forecast
Source: BEA and IHS
2013 2.2%
2014 2.4%
Forecast
2015 2.3%
2016 2.9%
2017 2.8%
GDP
2011Q3=2007Q4
Components of GDP are:
GDP = Consumption (69%)
Investment (17%)
Government (18%)
Net Export (-4%)
Consumption
Consumption forecast is downgraded slightly.
Modest growth of 3.0% in 2015 and 2016.
So far no pickup due to lower gasoline prices.
Consumers retain the conservative spending stance nearly 6 years after the end of the Great Recession.
Auto sales are forecasted to increase 2.9% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016.
Deleveraging is Nearly Over
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
BEA and FED
Personal
Saving Rate
HH Debt as %
Disp. Pers. Inc.
130%
102%
60%
92%
HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND SAVING RATE
Revised Downward
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Actual Forecast
REAL CONSUMPTION
Source: BEA and IHS
1997-2007
3.6%
2013 2.4%
2014 2.5%
Forecast
2015 3.0%
2016 3.0%
2017 2.7%
Investment Sector
The big bad news is the energy sector.
The Baker Hughes oil rig count has been falling at a rate of 4.3% per week since the first of the year.
More damage is expected in the this sector over the next several quarters.
Another area of concern is inventories. The inventory/sales ratio is at its highest level since the end of the recession.
Housing starts are expected to rise 7.9% in 2015 and 20.5% in 2016.
Equipment spending will rise 5.5% in 2015 and 8.4% in 2016.
Recovery Proceeds
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
ActualForecast
2013 0.93 Mil
2014 1.00
Forecast
2015 1.08
2016 1.30
2017 1.45
HOUSING STARTS
Source: US Census and IHS
Mil
lio
ns
, U
nit
s
Millio
ns
, Un
its
Government Sector
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
EXPENDITURES
RECEIPTS
DEFICITS
FORECAST
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AS % OF GDP
Source: IHS
Debt Held by Public
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY PUBLIC
FORECAST
Source: IHS
Foreign Sector
Strong $ has reduced exports and increased imports.
Inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted value of the $ will rise another 3.2% this next year.
At its peak, the $ will be 17.3% above 2014 levels.
Strong $ has reduced non-oil import prices by 2.7%.
This will be deflationary as it will impact domestically competing goods.
When FED starts raising interest rates it will strengthen $ even more.
Modest Growth
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
P to T
-8.7 mil
-6.3%
Back to P
May 2014
+249,000 mth avg
last 12 monthsch
an
ge
in
th
ou
sa
nd
s
ch
an
ge
in th
ou
sa
nd
s
Source: BLS
Employment & Unemployment
Still Slow Job-Growth Recovery
Unemployment forecast dramatically lower than previous forecasts.
Unemployment rate will average 5.4% in 2015 and 5.1% in 2016.
We still have the issue of low labor force participation rates contributing to the drop in unemployment.
Job Growth Slows
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
Source: BLS and IHS
Actual Forecast
1997-2007
1.1%
2013 1.7%
2014 1.9%
Forecast
2015 2.0%
2016 1.4%
2017 1.4%
Lower Than Expected
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Actual Forecast
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Source: BLS and IHS
1997-2007
4.9%
U6=11.3%
Avg U 32.3 wks
U>27 wks 31.5%
2013 7.4%
2014 6.2%
Forecast
2015 5.4%
2016 5.1%
2017 5.0%
EMP/POP ↓ Sharply
U3 & U6 Unemployment Rates
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Unemployment Rates
Source: BLS
U6
U3
U3=Unemployment Rate
U6=U3+Marginally Attached
& Part-Time for Econ. Reasons
Marginally Attached & Part-Time
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
U6-U3
Source: BLS
Marginally Attached
+ Part-Time for
Economic Reasons
US & SD U6
Unemployment Rate
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
US
SD
Source: BLS
U6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
notice wider spread
Inflation & Interest Rates
Inflation remains under control and well below FED’s 2% target.
FED ended bond buying (QE) in October 2014 and will begin raising rates in September 2015???
Future FED policy will be data-dependent.
If slow growth continues, rate hike could be delayed until 2016.
Still Low
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
INFLATION: CPI
Source: BLS and IHS
ForecastActual
1997-2007
2.6%
2013 1.5%
2014 1.6%
Forecast
2015 -0.2%
2016 2.0%
2017 2.5%
IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
FORECAST 2/6/14
Variable 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.8%
NA Emp 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4%
Oil(Brent) $100 $57 $66 $74
Housing 1.00 1.08 1.30 1.45
CPI 1.6% -0.2% 2.0% 2.5%
Un Rate 6.2% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0%
IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
FORECAST May 2015
Risks to Forecast
15% chance of recession.
Risks are:
Wary consumer paying down debt rather than spending.
Slow employment growth and rising unemployment.
Weak foreign economies and lagging exports.
Key Variables Tracking
SD Economy
Nonfarm employment
Housing starts
Real nonfarm personal income
Taxable sales
Leading indicator
Steady Growth
144,000
140,000
136,000
132,000
128,000
430
420
410
400
390
380
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Th
ou
san
ds
Th
ou
san
ds
Source: BLS
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
SD
US
Ratio
Scale
Job Loss P to T
US -8.7 mil -6.3%
SD -12.7 thous -3.1%
SD Recession
Begins =>
2014 M04
2012 MO2
SD & SF Very Similar
430
420
410
400
390
380
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ratio
Scale
Th
ou
san
ds
Th
ou
san
ds
Source: BLS
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT - SD & SF
SD
SF
Job Loss P to T
SD -12.7 thous -3.1%
SF -4.4 thous -3.2%
US -8.7 mil -6.2%
Recovery – Almost Back
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
24
23
22
21
20
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Ratio
Scale
SD
US
Source: BLS
CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
P to T
US -29%
SD -16%
Which is More Cyclical?
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
370
360
350
340
330
320
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Service Employment
Right Scale==>
Ratio
Scale
Goods Employment
<==Left Scale
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
SOUTH DAKOTA SERVICE AND GOODS
PRODUCING EMPLOYMENT
Source: BLS
Goods-Producing = Manufacturing+Construction
Above Peak
8.8
8.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.2
8.8
8.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.205 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Source: BLS
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
SF CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
Ratio
Scale
Seasonally
Adjusted
Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Not Quite Back to Peak
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Total, SD
Single, SD
Un
its
SD Building Permits, Total & Single
12 Month Moving Average
Source: Census Bureau
Very Good Performance
0
100
200
300
400
500
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SF Total
SF Single
12 Month
Moving Avg
12 Month
Moving Avg
Sioux Falls Building Permits
Source: US Census Bureau
SD Peaked Later and
Decline Less Severe
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
9000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Ratio
ScaleUS
SD
Ind
ex
20
00
Q4
=1
00
Ind
ex
20
00
Q4
=1
00
HOUSE PRICE INDEX: PURCHASE ONLY PRICE
Source: FHFA.GOV
SD Back to Peak
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
44
42
40
38
36
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENTT
ho
us
an
ds
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Source: BLS
Ratio
Scale
SD
USSince 12/2007
US -13.1%
SD -4.8%
MFG %
US 8.9%
SD 9.4%
SF 9.3%
SD Not Back to Peak
8,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,600
17.2
16.8
16.4
16.0
15.6
15.2
14.8
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SD
US
Ratio
Scale
Source: BLS
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
FINANCIAL ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT
P to T
US -8.5%
SD -13.0%
Fin %
US 5.8%
SD 6.7%
SF 10.6%
Almost Back to Peak
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
1105 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Ratio
Scale
Financial
Activities
Manufacturing
Sioux Falls Employment - Finance & Manufacturing
Source: BLS
SD 3.4% SF(SA) 3.2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
U6 (US)=11.3%
U6 (SD)= 6.4%
Source: BLS
US
SD
SF
1997-2007
US 4.9%
SD 3.2%
SF 2.5%
Nonfarm Employment
(MAR Year-Over-Year Growth)
Industry SD SF RC
Total 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%
Construction 4.8% 9.2% -2.4%
Manufacturing 3.1% 2.2% -3.5%
Retail Trade 2.0% 5.1% 1.1%
Information 0.0% 0.0% 11.1%
Financial Act. -1.0% -0.6% -2.3%
Leisure/Hosp -1.7% -3.7% 4.8%
Government 0.4% 0.8% 1.8%
SD Smaller Decline – Way
Above Previous Peak
$14,000
$13,500
$13,000
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
$11,000
$36
$34
$32
$30
$28
$26
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Ratio
Scale
Bil
lio
ns
Billio
ns
Source: BLS
NONFARM PERSONAL INCOME (2009 $S)
SD
US
P to T
US -2.8%
SD -1.1%
US and SD Track
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
SD
US
REAL NONFARM PERSONAL INCOME
(Year-Over-Year Percent Change)
Souce: BEA
Down
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Bil
lio
ns
Billio
ns
SD
US
Source: BEA
FARM INCOME
5 Year Avg
% of PI
US = 0.7%
SD = 8.6%
Pretty Good Growth
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Large Projects=>
% Change y/y
12-Month
Moving Average
SD TAXABLE SALES
Source: SD Department of Revenue
Big Project =>
a Year Earlier
Steady Growth
$1.8B
$1.7B
$1.6B
$1.5B
$1.4B
$1.3B
$1.2B
$1.1B
$1.0B
$1.8B
$1.7B
$1.6B
$1.5B
$1.4B
$1.3B
$1.2B
$1.1B
$1.0B05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ratio
Scale
SD Taxable Sales - Seasonally Adjusted
Source: SD Department of Revenue
12 Month Moving Average
MAR 2014 to MAR 2015 +4.0%
Forecasting Growth?
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SD
US
LEADING INDICATOR: US & SD
Source: Fed Res Bank of Philadelphia
Six-Month Forecast
of Coincident Indicator
Mid-American States
Leading Indicators - GOSS
April 2015 Index > 50 Growth
Overall 54.2
New Orders 57.1
Sales 58.9
Delivery lead time 54.6
Inventories 49.8
Employment 50.6
“I expect the strong U.S. dollar to push 2015 exports ten percent
below their 2014 levels and slow overall growth below that
achieved in 2014.”
Conclusions
SD economy growing at moderate rate
SF economy growing at faster rate
US economy growing slowly
Only 15% chance of recession
The End