the state of retail - infegy...introduction 3 key findings • consumers are becoming increasingly...

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The State of RetailAugust 2014Authors: Tiffany Tran / Rion Martin

Infegy

A high-level analysis of consumer perceptions of the 15 most talked about retailers that explores market positioning, age and gender distribution, family purchasing behavior, seasonal changes, conversation drivers, and increasing disillusionment with Black Friday.

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Table of ContentsIntroduction

Report Methodology

Individual Brand Health

Consumer Profiles

Family Purchasing Behaviors

Seasonal Preferences

1

2

3

4

Seasonal Drivers

Predictions + Conclusion

References

5

6

7

8

9

2

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Introduction

3

Key Findings

• Consumers are becoming increasingly more negative in regards to Black Friday.

• Nordstrom Rack only retailer to excel at garnering high levels of interest from 25-34 age group.

• Seasonal activity has shifted for all retailers to the Fall season.

• Nordstrom brands excelling at increasing e-commerce activity.


The retail industry has been significantly transformed by technologies that enable consumers to discover, research, and purchase goods outside of the brick-and-mortar experience, regardless of time or location. !

In response, many brands have embraced digital and mobile marketing strategies while also pivoting towards omni-channel retailing. Combined, these three elements are enabling retailers to play a significant role in the modern buyer journey. !

To further tailor the unique journey of each customer and create seamless transitions between channels, retailers are becoming more adept at mining the wealth of data available. This report looks at just one of those data sources, social media, to establish a high-level understanding of consumer perceptions of the 15 most talked about retailers.

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Report Methodology

4

Our research began with over 50 U.S. retail department stores discussed on blogs, forums and social channels within the last 2 years. Out of the 50 retail department stores, 18 department stores met our threshold of online presence and were included in the research. In this analysis consumer research excluded posts from brands themselves, while brand research focused specifically on content created by the brands. Analysis of major retail stores that also offered groceries and household goods was restricted to clothing to maintain consistent comparisons between the other major retailers. !

Organizationally, retailers were sorted into four different tiers: luxury, mid-range, budget and discount. With retailers separated into tiers, we identified consumer profiles, brand health, seasonal preferences and seasonal drivers.

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Luxury

Mid-Range

Budget

Discount

Brand Tiers

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Brand Overview

6

• Macy’s led in overall shopping related conversations with around 9m posts.

• Nordstrom was perceived as having the highest quality and attractiveness of products, as well as generating the most purchase related posts.

• Target, while belonging to the budget tier, fared well both in perceptions of quality and purchase based conversations.

*Research into Walmart and Target was limited to conversations about clothing related items to keep comparisons consistent.


% of Conversations Related to Purchase ActivityPe

rcep

tions

of P

rodu

ct Q

ualit

y / A

ttrac

tiven

ess

HighH

igh

LowLo

w

Number of Social Media

Conversations

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Consumer Age DistributionNordstrom

Neiman MarcusSaks

BloomingdalesBarneys

MacysJCP

Dillard'sTarget

WalmartKohlsSears

TJMaxxNordstrom Rack

Burlington

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

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Key Findings

• Barney’s most discussed by consumers in 0-24 age group.

• Macy’s and Burlington Coat Factory only brands to get significant portion of engagement from 55+.

• Nordstrom Rack excelled over all other brands with consumers aged 25-34.


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Consumer Gender DistributionAcross all conversations for the 18 stores analyzed in this report, women accounted for 68% of all posts. The brands in which a wide variance from the average was recognized were JCPenney, Target, Walmart, and Burlington Coat Factory, all of which realized greater than 40% of posts from men.

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Nor

dstro

m

Nei

man

Mar

cus

Saks

Bloo

min

gdal

es

Barn

eys

Mac

ys

JCP

Dilla

rds

Targ

et

Wal

mar

t

Kohl

s

Sear

s

TJ M

axx

Nor

dstro

m R

ack

BCF

54%79%80%73%73%

52%58%65%57%64%73%72%69%64%72%

46%21%20%27%27%

48%42%35%43%36%27%28%31%36%28%

Luxury Mid-Range Budget Discount

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Family Purchasing Behaviors

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Key Findings

• Walmart consistently is the most popular retailer families discuss purchasing from.

• Discount Stores are discussed in a family context to a greater extent than Mid-Range Stores.

• Dillard’s and TJ Maxx/Marshalls were the only stores to see increase in family purchasing discussions 2012-2013.

*Research performed specifically on parents discussing shopping for their children.


Nordstrom

Neiman Marcus

Saks

Macy’s

JCP

Dillard’s

Target

Walmart

Kohl’s

TJM/Marshalls

Nordstrom Rack

Burlington Coat

20122013

LuxuryM

id-RangeBudget

Discount

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Online Purchasing Behaviors

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Key Findings

• Nordstrom’s online purchasing behaviors increased by 25%.

• Consumers prefer purchasing from budget retailers in-store than online.

• Neiman Marcus, only store to see less stated online purchases in luxury tier.

• Dillard’s, only Mid-Range retailer to significantly increase stated online purchasing behaviors.

*Research performed on conversations specifically referencing online purchases


JCP

Nordstrom

Neiman Marcus

Saks

Macy’s

Dillard’s

Target

Walmart

Kohl’s

TJM/Marshalls

Nordstrom Rack

Burlington Coat

20122013

LuxuryM

id-RangeBudget

Discount

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Seasonal Preference 2012Conversations amongst consumers were fairly evenly split across the seasons, with Spring having the overall lowest conversation volume, and Fall the highest. As can be seen on the next page, the concentration of conversations shifts dramatically between 2012 and 2013.


Nor

dstro

m

Nei

man

Mar

cus

Saks

Mac

y's

JCP

Dilla

rd's

Targ

et

Wal

mar

t

Kohl

's

TJM

/Mar

shal

ls

Nor

dstro

m R

ack

Burli

ngto

n

28%28%28%31%31%27%21%23%31%32%30%28%

25%26%26%26%28%36%24%29%21%23%22%25%

18%26%23%19%20%17%26%22%21%25%21%22%

29%21%22%25%21%20%29%26%27%20%27%25%

WinterSpringSummerFall


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Seasonal Preference 2013Aggressive couponing and promotion, as well as increased discussion of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, dramatically changed the concentration of conversations, shifting the majority of conversations to the Fall season. These changes significantly impacted consumer focus on retailers in all three other seasons. The trend lines on the subsequent two pages further demonstrate this change in behavior.


Nor

dstro

m

Nei

man

Mar

cus

Saks

Mac

y's

JCP

Dilla

rd's

Targ

et

Wal

mar

t

Kohl

's

TJM

/Mar

shal

ls

Nor

dstro

m R

ack

Burli

ngto

n

43%32%38%44%45%43%33%31%46%36%43%39%

19%20%22%19%21%20%

21%22%18%19%19%20%

21%28%24%21%17%18%26%28%20%23%19%23%17%21%17%16%17%18%20%19%16%23%19%18%



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Year-Over-Year Trends

13

Key Findings

• In 2012, Mid-Range retailers in particular had greater consumer focus on multiple sales events.

• In 2013, consumer focus on sales events shifted to Black Friday for Mid-Range retailers.

• Luxury retailers transitioned from having little consumer attention on Black Friday in 2012 to a large jump just prior to the event in 2013.

• Discount brands largely absent from consumer conversations about Black Friday / Cyber Monday in both 2012 and 2013


2012 Volume (Luxury, Mid-Range, Discount)

2013 Volume by Tier (Luxury, Mid-Range, Discount)

Budget Mid-Range Luxury Discount

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Year-Over-Year Trends

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Key Findings

• Just as with Mid-Range tier, the Budget retailers also realized a dramatic shift in consumer focus.

• Breaking from a relatively even distribution of conversations throughout the year in 2012, the majority of attention was re-focused on Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2013.


2012 Volume (Budget)

2013 Volume by Tier (Budget)

Budget Mid-Range Luxury Discount

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Seasonal Digital Advertising 2012In 2012, communications from brand owned social media channels engaged online to the greatest degree during the Winter and Summer. Neiman Marcus, Saks, JCP, Target, Walmart, Nordstrom Rack and Burlington focused the majority of their digital advertising to the Winter with more than 40% overall. As witnessed on the following page, brand communication on their owned media changed dramatically from 2012 to 2013.


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Nor

dstro

m

Nei

man

Mar

cus

Saks

Mac

y's

JCP

Dilla

rd's

Targ

et

Wal

mar

t

Kohl

's

TJM

/Mar

shal

ls

Nor

dstro

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Burli

ngto

n



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Seasonal Digital Advertising 2013In 2013, brand online presence shifted away from the Winter season to the Fall. Every retailer analyzed, with the exception of Neiman Marcus, had the least digital presence during the Winter season. Burlington Coat Factory was the only retailer that focused the majority of their digital advertising during the Spring.


0%25%50%75%

100%

Nor

dstro

m

Nei

man

Mar

cus

Saks

Mac

y's

JCP

Dilla

rd's

Targ

et

Wal

mar

t

Kohl

's

TJM

/Mar

shal

ls

Nor

dstro

m R

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Burli

ngto

n



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Seasonal Drivers 2012

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Key Findings

• Luxury brands driven by Black Friday and Cyber Monday super sales more than other tiers.

• Celebrity influencers were big drivers for Mid-Range retailers.

• Product incentives/tests were popular drivers for stores like Target and Walmart.

• Fashion bloggers and in-store shopping incentives significant to Discount retailers like TJ Maxx/Nordstrom Rack.


Mid-Range Budget DiscountLuxury

1. Black Friday 2. Cyber Monday 3. Semi-Annual

Sale

1. Nicole Richie 2. Free Haircuts 3. Kristin Cavallari

1. Starbucks 2. Nintendo Wii U 3. Cyber Monday

1. Fashion Bloggers

2. Contests 3. Coupons

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Seasonal Drivers 2013

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Key Findings

• Make-up bonuses were popular incentives for Luxury retail brands.

• Celebrities continue to be a key influencer for Mid-Range retailers.

• Budget retailer’s ads focused on early open dates and super sales.

• Discount brands continue to see traction with fashion bloggers.


Mid-Range Budget DiscountLuxury

1. Anniversary Sale

2. Clinique Bonus

1. Giveaways 2. Wendy Bellissimo 3. Austin Mahone

1. TV’s 2. Apple Products 3. Early Black Friday

1. Fashion Bloggers 2. Home Décor

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Black Friday BurnoutBlack Friday related conversations skyrocketed from 10.5m in 2012 to 28.5 million in 2013. Unfortunately, a large portion of the increase came not from consumers and brands themselves but from sources focused on re-sharing ads and coupons.

To separate the signal from the noise, a consumer segment comprised of 50,162 adults was compiled. Focusing analysis just on this cohort, there were noticeable changes in perceptions of Black Friday from 2012 to 2013.

Although the total number of conversations about Black Friday within the social universe increased 171%, for consumers within this cohort, volume increased by only 5%. In this same comparison, negative sentiment increased from 31% to 37%, expressions of anger rose very slightly from 1% to 1.1%, statements indicating plans to purchase fell from 6.2% to 3.6%, and comments about making purchases declined from 4.7% to 2.1%.

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Key Findings

• Large swath of content contributing to volume increase from 2012 to 2013 was related to sources focused on re-sharing ads and coupons.

• Within a cohort of 50k adults, consumer perceptions increased in negativity, while purchase related statements significantly decreased.


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There were very noticeable changes both for consumers and brands moving from 2012 to 2013. The most noticeable was decreased focus on multiple sales events throughout the year, instead focusing the majority of attention on Black Friday. However, while conversations about Black Friday have increased within the social universe, everyday consumers seem to be falling out of love with the allure of the sales event. It will be important for brands moving forward to avoid burning out consumers with ads and offers and instead come up with more creative ways to connect during this heightened time of spending.

What we’re predicting for 2014: • The largest year yet of online conversations around Black Friday yet stalled in-store sales growth. • The best technologically integrated brands will increase focus on Cyber Monday in order to grow through e-

commerce sales. • Burlington Coat Factory will continue to see decline in earned media due to lack of clear digital strategy.

Conclusion & Predictions

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Find out more at: http://infegy.com or connect with us at [email protected]

This report was generated using data and insights from Infegy Atlas, a social media intelligence tool that helps demanding researchers get to the heart of what consumers think, discuss, and how they feel about topics and brands through almost instant analysis of millions of social conversations.

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the state of retail - infegy...introduction 3 key findings • consumers are becoming increasingly...

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