the state of legal cannabis markets · 2020-03-06 · source: arcview market research/bds analytics...

Presented by:

Presented by:Roy Bingham, CEO ∙ BDS AnalyticsTroy Dayton, CEO ∙ The Arcview GroupTom Adams ∙ Editor-in-Chief ∙ Arcview Market ResearchManaging Director, Industry Intelligence ∙ BDS Analytics

The State of Legal Cannabis Markets

Adult Use Has Now Overtaken Medical

©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics 2

Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics

$3.1

$3.8

$4.9

$6.3

$4.8

$6.8

$0.3 $1.0

$1.8

$2.9

$6.1

$8.1

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Medical vs. Adult Worldwide Legal Spending ($ billions)

Medical Adult-Use

3


$3.4 $4.8 $6.7

$9.1 $10.9

$14.9

$19.3

$24.4

$30.7

$36.2

$40.6

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Global Legal Spending by Continent ($ billions)

Asia Pacific ROW Latin America Europe North America

©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics

Growth Will Reaccelerate Going Foward

©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics 4

The Rising Tide of Legalization Cannot Be Stopped

5


$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

U.S. CBD Spending Licensed Dispensaries vs. Pharmaceuticals ($ millions)

Licensed Dispensary CBD CBD Pharma


Epidiolex Takes Cannabinoids Beyond Dispensaries

6

Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics *Products containing a substantial proportion of CBD

2.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.7% 10.3% 11.2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q12019

U.S. CBD vs. THC Share of Licensed Dispensary Sales Tracked by GreenEdge™

CBD* THC


Dispensaries Created the CBD Phenomenon

7


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2018

U.S. Dispensary High CBD Product Mix, GreenEdge™ Tracked Stores 2014 vs. 2018

Ingestibles Concentrates Sublinguals Topicals Flower Other


What Started With Flower is Now 95% Other Products

8


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

U.S. CBD Spending Licensed Dispensary vs. General Retail Channels 2018-2024

General Retail Dispensary


The CBD Retail Battle to Come: Dispensaries Against The World

9©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics

Constellation Investment Wakes up Wall Street


Triggering a Flood of New Money Into Cannabis


Sparking an M&A Explosion


Market Lifecycle in Colorado

13


Growth Indicator Matrix

Baseline Consumers

Licensing and Taxation

Retail Universe

Resilience to Extra-Legal Market

Consumption Regulation

Supply Chain Regulation


Retail Tracking Shows What Drives (or Kills) Growth

14


8.67 8.17

6.67

4.67 4.67 4.33 4.00

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

AK OK NM NY OH NJ LA

Growth Indicator Matrix: Top and Bottom State Markets


Huge Range of Index Values Driven by Regulator Approach

15


Oklahoma, $1.0

Oklahoma, $4.2

Oklahoma, $7.2

Ohio, $0.5

Ohio, $1.0 Ohio, $1.4

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3

Medical Cannabis Sales: Months 1-3 ($ millions)

Oklahoma Ohio


Case Study: Oklahoma versus Ohio


First-Ever Provincial-Level Forecast

17


11.6%13.5%

3.6%2.1% 1.4%

2.6%

38.7%

0.4%

22.6%

3.1%0.3%

38.0%

3.4%3.6% 2.6% 2.0%

4.6%

35.7%

0.7%6.2% 2.9% 0.4%

18.2%

14.0%

3.6%2.0% 2.2% 2.9%

39.0%

0.3%

13.6%

3.7%

0.5%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Alberta BritishColumbia

Manitoba NewBrunswick

Newfoundland& Labrador

Nova Scotia Ontario Prince EdwardIsland

Quebec Saskatchewan Territories

The Canadian Provinces: Population versus Cannabis Revenue ($ millions)

% of 2018 Population % of 2018 Revenue % of 2024 Revenue


Similar Growth Indicators Applied to Canadian Provinces

19


Illinois Market Summary

No history of unlicensed competition

Vertical integration permitted

No product restrictions


Case Study: Illinois Goes Adult Use

20


$145$210 $273 $296 $270 $233 $213

$270

$437 $616

$772 $928

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Illinois Legal Spending ($ millions)

Medical Spending Adult-Use Spending


Quickly Turning State Into Fifth Largest U.S. Market

21

$0.2 $0.4

$0.8

$1.4

$2.2

$3.2

$4.0

$4.5

$0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.3

$0.5 $0.7

$0.8

$-

$1

$1

$2

$2

$3

$3

$4

$4

$5

$5

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

International Markets Legal Spending ($ billions)

Medical Spending Adult-use SpendingSource: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics


The Seeds of an Enormous Worldwide Opportunity

23


$0.1

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$1.0

$1.3$1.4

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Germany Legal Spending ($ billions)


Case Study: German Medical Market

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the state of legal cannabis markets · 2020-03-06 · source: arcview market research/bds analytics...

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