Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture

The State ofFood andAgriculture 2

016

#sofa16

Rob VosFAO

February 2016

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Challenges to world food security

• Global food production needs to increase by 60%by 2050

• Natural resource limits (such as land availability) mean most growth (80%) has to come from yield increases (intensification)

• … even withoutaccounting for climate change

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

World

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Near East/North Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

East Asia

Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases

Projected sources of growth in crop production, 2005/07 - 2050

Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision. Rome, FAO.

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• Climate change will affect food availability through adverse impact on yields and production

• Impacts on crop yields vary by crop, region, model, scenario and time frame

• Models that project farther into the future show more severe adverse impacts

Projected changes in crop yields (mostly wheat, maize, rice and soy) due to climate change over the 21st century

Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.

The climate challenge to agriculture & food security

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The climate challenge to agriculture & food security

… also impacts on

Access to foodImpact on rural incomes and livelihoodsImpact on real food prices

UtilizationDiets, nutritional quality of foods, food safety

StabilityIncreased climate variability means less stable food supply

Policy ChoicesNo climate

changeWith

climate changeLow-impact High-impact

Prosperity Scenario 142 mln + 3 mln + 16 mlnPoverty Scenario 900 mln + 35 mln + 122 mln

Source: World Bank, 2015 and Rozenberg and Hallegatte, forthcoming

Climate change threatens to worsen poverty,(# people in extreme poverty by 2030)

… agriculture would be the main driver

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Agriculture major contributor to climate change

“AFOLU” contributes about one quarter of global GHG emissions, though the share has decreased

27%

8%

32%

19%

14%

1990s

Ag, Forestry & other land use

Buildings

Energy

Industry

Transport

22%

7%

36%

20%

15%

2000s

Ag, Forestry & other land useBuildingsEnergyIndustryTransport

Share of emissions by economic sector, 1990s and 2000s

Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.

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Agriculture major contributor to climate change

Wide regional disparities in sources and contributions to GHG emissions

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

AFOLU Emissions Average for 2010-2012, by region

Agriculture Forest sinks Net Forest Conversion Other land use

Billions of tons CO2 equiv.

Source: FAOSTAT, 2015.

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Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture

The future ain’t what it used to be…

• Hunger and climate change must be addressed hand-in-hand

• Climate change is already affecting yields and rural livelihoods, especially in developing countries, requiring immediate resilience and adaptation efforts

• Agriculture has large mitigation potential

• Responses can simultaneously address both adaptation and mitigation

• “Sustainable intensification” of agriculture is required to secure global food security

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What needs to be done? What can be done?

Key questions for SOFA 2016

• What is special about climate change and agriculture?• Can we achieve sufficient “sustainable intensification”

and build enough resilience to climate change? • How can we make adaptation and mitigation move

together?• What does this mean for the near 500 million

smallholder farmers around the world?• What are the implications for investments, finance and

governance of global agriculture and food security?

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Coping with climate change in agriculture

• Sustainable intensification combines “adaptation” and “mitigation” responses (“climate smart agriculture”, CSA)

• Agriculture and food systems need to respond by

• Increasing resilience in agroecosystems and socioeconomic systems

• Improving carbon and nitrogen management in agriculture

• Sustainability along whole food value chain and trade networks

• Addressing climate impacts associated with dietary transition

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Adaptation and mitigation through sustainable food and agriculture

SFA Principle Relevance to CC Key practices that address CC A & M benefits

Resilience CC is non-linear; higher variability

Risk management A: higher economic stabilityEmergency response M: reduced GHG impact of

crisesBuild adaptive capacity

Improve livelihoods & equity Adapted smallholder systems Overcoming barriers to increasing resilience/resource use efficiency

A: higher ag and non ag returns potential resource savings

Consumption and diets Healthy, CC-sensitive dietary choices

M: lower emissions through lower dietary footprints

Resource use efficiency Emission intensity Better transformation of C, N, water, land into products

A: reduced costs; higher incomeM: lower emission intensity

Protection of resources Sinks Build environmental services and productive capacities (soils, water, vegetation)

A: more productive resources; higher incomeM: carbon sequestration

Governance Institutions; finance; human assets

Inclusion; access; credit and prices; capacity building

A: more targeted measuresM: better consideration of CC impacts

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Challenges and opportunities for smallholders

• Is sustainable intensification a “win-win” option for smallholders?

• “Hard responses”: infrastructure, finance, access to technology, agribusiness development

• “Soft responses”: social protection, producer organizations, institutions and governance

• Cost of building resilience into agricultural systems large, but much lower than cost of inaction

• Support to smallholder farmers needs to go hand in hand with broader rural development

Source: World Bank, 2015

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Governance for sustainable food security

• Targeted support food producers – especially smallholders

• Support collective action

• Manage risks

• Integrate agriculture into climate change strategies

• Promote sustainable food consumption

• Enhance contribution of markets and trade

• Strengthen international cooperation

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COP21 provides entries to act on all of the above

• Priority to food security and ending hunger (preamble)

• Mechanism for voluntary cooperation (article 6)

• Enhancing understanding of loss and damage – inter alia through the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (article 8)

• Financial resources (article 9)

• Technology transfer (article 10)

• Capacity building (article 11)

… but we need to further explore feasible pathways for sustainable food security and agriculture

Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture

The State ofFood andAgriculture 2

016

#sofa16

Forthcoming in October 2016

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SOFA 2016: Climate change, food security and agriculture

Annex: Referenced slides

#sofa16Source: World Bank, 2015. Shock Waves: Managing the impacts of climate change on poverty. Washington DC, The World Bank.

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Sources of GHG emissions by agriculture

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

Largest source of agricultural emissions

Enteric Fermentation

(39%)

Enteric Fermentation

(50%)

Enteric Fermentation

(33%)

Enteric Fermentation

(38%)

Enteric Fermentation

(34%)

Second largest sourceManure left on Pasture (28%)

Manure left on Pasture (20%)

Synthetic Fertilizers

(20%)

Manure Management

(16%)

Burning -Savanna (34%)

Third largest sourceBurning -

Savanna (21%)

Synthetic Fertilizers

(11%)

Rice Cultivation

(19%)

Synthetic Fertilizers

(15%)

Manure left on Pasture (20%)

Three largest sources of agricultural emissions, by region

Source: FAOSTAT, 2015