the state of consumer finance: why the time is now for marketplace lending€¦ · the state of...
TRANSCRIPT
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The State of Consumer Finance: Why the Time is Now for Marketplace Lending
A L G O L D S T E I N , C E O AVA N T
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The lending industry is overdue for disruptionPo
tent
ial f
or D
isru
ptio
n
Timing of DisruptionFar-Out Near-Term
Low
Hig
h
Mortgage
International Remittances
In-Store Payments
SMB Loans
Wealth Management
Digital Payments
Deposits
Personal Loans
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Consumer
Education
Real Estate
Small Business
Companies are being established to address various product segments
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Investors believe marketplace lending can create substantial disruption
Venture Capital Funding for Lending Startups
$0
$625
$1,250
$1,875
$2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$2,366
$1,003
$315$301$320$179
85% of institutional investors are
interested
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But, headwinds have emerged
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Systemic risk exists for large tech startups as investors question valuations
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Accessibility of the capital markets has diminished
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Regulatory uncertainty remains a key concern
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Yet, the environment for the middle class consumer continues to improve…
Chart Title
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Unemployment RateOil
~$37.00 / Barrel
= $700 annual savings Household Debt Service Payments to
Disposable Income
9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%
Jan-84 Jul-87 Jan-91 Jul-94 Jan-98 Jul-01 Jan-05 Jul-08 Jan-12 Jul-15 Jan-19
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And credit performance shows no sign of deterioration
0.0%
4.5%
9.0%
13.5%
18.0%
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Avant Cumulative Gross Charge-Off Rate by Cohort (%)
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Nevertheless, some compare the rise of marketplace lending to the period leading up to 2008…
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What went wrong in 2008?
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Favorable capital markets resulted in high corporate leverage
Dol
lars
in T
rillio
ns
$0.0
$0.8
$1.5
$2.3
$3.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Debt Equity
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US household debt reached an all-time high of $12.7 trillion in 2008
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Mar-59
Jul-6
2
Nov-65
Mar-69
Jul-7
2
Nov-75
Mar-79
Jul-8
2
Nov-85
Mar-99
Jul-0
2
Nov-05
Mar-09
Jul-1
2
Recessions Household Liabilities as a % of Disposable Income
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Financial systems became increasingly complex
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Structured Credit
Structured Credit Collateral
RMBSCMBSABSCMOCLOCDOCDO2
CDS
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2008 was the worst year for the S&P 500 since the Great Depression
0
625
1,250
1,875
2,500
2019201820172016201520142013201320122011 201020092008200720072006200520042003200220012001 20001999199819971996199619951994
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During 2008 & 2009, nearly 10% of Americans lost 50+ points of FICO
It can take nearly 2 years to recover a loss this severe
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$5,000 Credit Card LimitABC BANK
Lester AndersonH O M E S T E A D , F L 2 0 0 7
$175,000 MortgageCOMMUNITY BANK
$55,000 salary
Married with kids
2002 Compact Car
8 years employed
FICO Score: 700
$5,000 Car LoanCARS R US
*This is a fictitious character, not an actual customer, created and used to illustrate a typical customer of Avant
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$5,000 Credit Card LimitABC BANK
Lester AndersonH O M E S T E A D , F L 2 0 1 0
$55,000 salary
Married with kids
2002 Compact Car
11 years employed
FICO Score: 650
No Refinancing Options
No Car Loans Available
*This is a fictitious character, not an actual customer, created and used to illustrate a typical customer of Avant
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47% of Americans < 700 FICO
~150 million people
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How Marketplace Lending is Bridging the Gap
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Demand
Technology Capital
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Demand
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US consumer credit market presents a $12 trillion opportunity
Card$659B
Mortgage$8,691B
Student$1,111B
Auto$875B
Personal$315B
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~$22 trillion consumer credit opportunity across US and Europe
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Borrowers find that marketplace lenders better meet their needs
Net Promoter Score0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0
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The middle income consumer remains largely underserved
Tech
nolo
gy &
Ana
lytic
s C
apab
ilitie
s
Consumer Credit RangeSuper Prime Near Prime
Low
Hig
h
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Non-prime consumer losses are more resilient through downturns
1% 4%
5% 10%
28%17%
3.00x
2.60x
1.75x
1.40x
Super-Prime
Prime
Near-Prime
Subprime
> 770
710 - 770
650 - 710
< 650
0.2% 0.7%
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Capital
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$1.2 Trillion
The amount of additional capital US banks are required to maintain
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Portfolio returns of the ‘80s and ‘90s may not be repeatable
Average 5-Year Return (%)
1980 - 1999 2000 - 2013
5.2%
13.8%
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Investor interest has fueled growth across the industry
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1.78841.6244
0.8154
0.33250.15330.06070.0897
Individuals Institutions
Loans Purchased ($Bn)
20252015
$15 Bn
$150 Bn
Total Origination Volume
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Technology
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100% Online & Mobile
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Real Time Approval & Next Day Funding
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Regression is an outdated method of credit modeling
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Machine learning models allow quicker, more accurate credit decisions
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Marketplace lenders are more effectively pricing risk
Credit Risk is Priced Tight on Cards
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
3-Year Treasury Bloomberg US High Hield
17.0%
9.0%
4.0%
1.0%
Marketplace Lender Yields Outpace Bonds
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Average Credit Card Penalty Rate
Average Credit Card Rate
Average Digital Lender Rate
12.6%
18.0%
28.8%
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How are Banks Responding?
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Partnership versus competition…
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Not only Avant
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Significant partnerships on capital side
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The Avant Difference
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P O W E R E D B YP O I N T O F S A L E
Reta i l Hea l t hca reAu to Home
O n l i n e / M o b i l e
Products
Channels
Customer Tools
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Differentiated funding model with recurring revenue
~ 50% On-Balance Sheet
~50% Off-Balance Sheet
ABS Securitization
New Product Facility
Bank Warehouse Forward Flow
Managed Fund Vehicles
Skin in the Game
& Random Allocation
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No up-front fees = Transparent products
that are easy to understand
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Consumer Credit Spectrum
550 850700 800750650600
• Low Cost Digital Platform• Engineering and Technical Depth• Machine Learning Underwriting• Marketing Analytics & Automation
• Powerful Brand & Branch Network• Low Cost Capital & Industry Expertise• Loyal & Diverse Customer Base• Customer Data & History
✓ Reduced Acquisition Costs✓ Multi Product (Consumer, Auto)
✓ No Cannibalization Risk✓ Alignment of Interest
Complementary partnership offering
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So how does this impact Lester?
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Simple Application
Check rates in 6 minutes or lesswithout impacting credit scoreFast Service
Real-time automated loan approvals and next business day funding
Transparent Policies
What you see is what you get
Lester AndersonH O M E S T E A D , F L 2 0 1 6
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Great consumer experience driving long term adoption…
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lowering the costs and barriers of borrowing
‘‘ ”