The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets

2015–16Trade and food security: achieving a better balance between national priorities and the collective good

9 December 2015FAO Headquarters

Why “trade and food security”?• High on both trade and development

agendas• Difficulties in addressing issue in policy

processes at all levels • Significant divergence in understanding/

perspectives on many aspects• Inconclusive evidence• High level of context-specificity

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Objectives• Reduce current polarization in debates by

providing evidence and clarity on:– key issues and disputed narratives– relationship between trade and food security– trade policy supportive of food security

• Improve consideration of trade and food security in the trade and development agenda– articulating trade-related concerns in processes

at global, regional, national levels– strengthening governance of trade and food

security

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Changing nature of agricultural

trade• Global trade in food products will continue

to expand rapidly– but the structure and pattern of trade

will differ significantly by commodity and region, with important implications for food security

• Greater participation in global trade likely to be reflected in most countries’ trade strategies– however, opening to trade needs to be

appropriately managed if trade is to improve food security outcomesThe State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Evolution of trade in agricultural products by region, 2000–2024

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Relationship between trade and food security• Trade affects each of 4 dimensions of food

security: availability, access, utilization, stability– Immediate effects on food production, total

supply, prices, employment, government revenue

– In longer run, effects on competition, marketing, infrastructure, value chain development, investments

– Short- and long-term effects could differ; thus difficult to generalize

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Trade and 4 pillars of foodsecurity: channels of interaction

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Trade policy and food security• Trade policy objectives:– address different dimensions of food

security– differ across countries– change over time– no single most “appropriate” policy

instrument

• Appropriateness of different trade policies largely determined by longer-term economic transformation processes – need to differentiate short-term

responses from longer-term strategiesThe State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

Strengthening global, regional, national policy processes• Strengthening policy-making “processes”

–rather than focusing on pros and cons of different “policies” – will help:– agree on common and shared objectives – Identify mix of “policies” to achieve them– assist in identifying relevant “policy space”– increase coherence and predictability of

policies– reconcile national and global food security

objectives

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16

The State of Agricultural Commodity

Markets2015–16

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