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The Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Internal Migration of Foreigners in Italy and Spain(*)
Joaquín Recaño-ValverdeqDepartament de Geografia - Centre d’Estudis DemogràficsUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaVerónica de Miguel LukenUniversidad de GranadaRoberta PaceUniversitat di Bari
Migration, Mixing and Ethnic IntegrationRoyal Geographical Society
Manchester, 26-28th August 2009
(*) Geographical mobility of foreign population in Spain: sociodemographic and territorial factors, funded by the Minister of Education and Science, R+D National Scheme 2004-2007.
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Background and objectivesBackground and objectives
Despite the importance of the topic, not much is known about the internal mobility of the foreign population in Europe in comparison with USA and Canadacomparison with USA and Canada.Most existing studies try to answer the following general questions:questions:Do foreigners stay in the entry regions? Are their internal migration patterns similar to those of natives? g pDo these patterns differ by origin and/or nationality? What individual socioeconomic and family factors have an yinfluence on foreigners or foreign-born people mobility?We search for answers to these questions for Spain and Italy
Data
Th i d t i t l i ti (fl ) d i thiThe microdata on internal migration (flows) used in thisstudy come from municipal registers (Estadística deVariaciones Residenciales in Spain period 1988-2008 andp pStatistiche Anagrafiche in Italy period 1995-2006)The number of foreigners used to calculate migration
t f th P d ó C ti (S i ) drates comes from the Padrón Continuo (Spain) andStatistiche Anagrafiche and Census 2001 (Italy).The individual data for the logistic models have beenThe individual data for the logistic models have been taken from the IPUMS-International 5% Household sample of the Spanish and Italian Census Data
Methods
We have used internal migration rates by sex and ageand Gross Migraproduction rates (defined by Rogers and
m=GMR +∑ω
Willekens) similar to Total Fertility Rates.
mGMR n+xx,=0x∑
We have used Courgeau method (1973) to comparemeasures of intensity of mobility in Spain and ItalyWe have applied Logistic regression to the microdataof the 2001 Spanish and Italian Census provided byIPUMS International (Sample 5%)IPUMS-International (Sample 5%).
Methods
We have classified foreigners in five different groups:UE (15) + OECD countries,Eastern European countries, including the former Sovietrepublics,African countries,Latin American countries andAsian countries.
Spain and Italy : new countries of immigration
In the last ten years, Spain d It l h b tand Italy have become two
countries of immigration.Reaching in 2008 5.2 million (11 3 per cent of the
Year Italy % Pop. Spain % Pop.(11.3 per cent of the population of Spain) and 3.4 million (5.7 per cent of the population of Italy)
1996 737,793 1.30 542,314 1.37
p p y)Steep increase of the incoming flows and heterogeneity in terms of nationality
2001 1,464,589 2.57 1,370,657 3.33
What can we expect as a result of the economic crisis?
2007 2,938,922 4.97 4,519,554 10.00
2008 3,432,651 5.76 5,220,577 11.33
Spatial distribution of the foreign population -1st January 20081st January 2008
Not foreign people< 1 per cent1 - 5 per cent
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1 - 5 per cent5 - 10 per cent10 - 15 per cent> 15 per cent
Source: INE and ISTAT. Own calculations
Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year in Spain and Italy (I)
The weight of their 30%
35%
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
Spain
Italygmoves over all internalflows has graduallyincreasedIn 2008 30 per cent of
20%
25%
mou
vem
ents
500 000
600.000
700.000
mm
igra
nts
Italy
Immigration Spain
Immigration Italy
In 2008, 30 per cent ofall residence changes inSpain.15 per cent in Italy
10%
15%
% o
f int
erna
l m
200 000
300.000
400.000
500.000
Num
ber o
f i
15 per cent in Italy.Singularity of the Spanishcase (no restriction toundocumented
0%
5%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080
100.000
200.000
undocumentedimmigrants). Year or migration
PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. SPAIN 2007
Origin Destination
Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent
PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. ITALY 2007
O i iOriginDestination
Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 15 t5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent
Internal net migration of foreigners by region in Spain and It l (2002 2007)Italy (2002 – 2007)
20032002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007
P ti f i t l t b d t f Proportion of internal movements by sex, age and type of migration Spain (2008) and Italy (2006)
Spain (2008)
50%
60%
Italy (2006)
50%
60%
30%
40%
30%
40%
0%
10%
20%
0%
10%
20%
A b tit t i di d l i t l i ti i S i ?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration
Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration
Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females
A substitute process in medium and large internal migration in Spain?50 per cent of young male movements in interprovincial migration in 2008in Spain and 15 per cent in Italy in 2006
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Results. Demographic structure
* Foreigners are far more mobile than Spanish and Italian nationals (three times as mobile on average in Spain).
Spain (2002-2004)
140
160
180
Italy (2002-2004)
140
160
180
80
100
120
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
20
40
60
00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Spanish males Spanish females F (males) F (females)
00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Italian males Italian females F (males) F (females)
Gross migraproduction rates by sex and nationality. Spain (2001-2004) and Italy (2000-2003)
Spain (2001-2004) Males Females Sex ratioSpain 2,06 2,03 1,01Foreigners 6,08 5,70 1,07UE (15) 3 77 3 46 1 09UE (15) 3,77 3,46 1,09Eastern Europe 7,03 6,79 1,04Africa 7,11 5,65 1,26Latinoamerican 7,25 7,17 1,01Asian 7,41 5,90 1,26Italy (2000-2003) Males Females Sex ratioItaly 1,55 1,50 1,03Foreigners 5 09 3 96 1 28Foreigners 5,09 3,96 1,28UE (15) 2,58 2,36 1,10Eastern Europe 5,56 4,36 1,28Africa 5,92 4,63 1,28Latinoamerican 3,95 3,83 1,03Asian 6,49 5,08 1,28
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Internal migration profilesby sex age and nationality
UE + OCDE
0,14
0,16
0,18Hombres
Mujeres
Países del Este
0,14
0,16
0,18
Hombres
Mujeres by sex, age and nationalitySpain (2004-2007)
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
W fi d diff b0,00
0,02
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00
0,02
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Países africanos0,18
Latinoamericanos0,18
We find differences by ageand gender.
More mobile than
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
Hombres
Mujeres
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
Hombres
Mujeres
o e ob e t aEuropean Union (15)nationalities.
We find the greatest
0,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00
0,02
0,04
0,06
,
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
We find the greatestdifferences in Gender inAfricans and Asians
ti litiPaíses asiáticos
0 12
0,14
0,16
0,18
Hombres
Mujeres
Total extranjeros
0 12
0,14
0,16
0,18
Hombres
Mujeres
nationalities.
0 02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0 02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,00
0,02
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00
0,02
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
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Internal migrationprofiles by sex, ageand nationality Italy
European Union
0,14
0,16
Males
Eastern Europe
0,14
0,16
Males and nationality Italy(2000-2003)
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12 Females
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12 Females
We find a similar behavior in Italian data but stronger
0,00
0,02
0,04
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00
0,02
0,04
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Africans Latinoamericans data but stronger differences in gender, specially between Af i A i d
Africans
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
Males
Females
Latinoamericans
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
Males
Females
Africans, Asians and Eastern Europe.
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,000-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
0,000-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Asians
0,14
0,16
Total
0,14
0,16
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
,
Males
Females
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
,
Males
Females
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona0,00
0,02
0,04
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00
0,02
0,04
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Logistic Intra-regional Inter-regionalItaly Spain Italy Spain
female ,943* ,966** ,660* ,934*25 34 regression
(short and long
Age group
25-3435-44 ,567* ,649* ,374* ,711*45-54 ,322* ,406* ,212* ,475*55+ ,169* ,183* ,152* ,304*native-born
distance)
Subcontinent of birth
European Union 15+CEE+Norway+Switzerland 1,069 1,267* 1,326* ,845*
Central-Eastern Europe 1,411* 1,617* 1,502* 1,123Northern Africa 1,657* 1,579* 1,206* 1,519*rest of Africa 1 273* 1 447* 1 223** 1 341*Subcontinent of birth rest of Africa 1,273 1,447 1,223 1,341Western Asia ,814 ,788 1,021 1,152South-Central Asia 1,813* ,940 1,749* 1,625*Eastern Asia 1,129 ,852 2,273* 1,028North America/Oceania ,880 ,898 ,980 1,203S h C A i
dependent variable:
change of South-Centre America 1,459* 1,365* 1,281* 1,282*
Type of household
one-person hhmarried/cohab couple, no children ,834* 1,523* ,592* 1,078**married/cohab couple, with children
,299* ,353* ,515* ,325*
change of municipality/region of
residence in the previous yearyp
single-parent family ,434* ,366* ,725* ,354*extended family, relatives only ,577* ,585* ,751* ,686*other ,857* ,820* 1,376* 1,269*Less than primary completedPrimary completed 1 076* 1 301* 1 271* 1 360*
previous year(0: no, 1: yes)
* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1
Academic attainmentPrimary completed 1,076* 1,301* 1,271* 1,360*Secondary completed 1,283* 1,742* 2,382* 1,976*University completed 1,486* 1,768* 4,797* 2,911*
Housing tenure Not-owned 1,144* 1,217* 1,350* 2,959*Employed
Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain
Employment status Unemployed ,818* 1,031 ,848* 1,648*Inactive ,893* ,872* 1,233* 1,124*Constant ,076* ,027* ,012* ,004*
Native-born
Northern-Africa
Central-Eastern
Europe 15+other develop
South-Central Asia
Logistic regression (Italy - long
born AfricaEurope
develop. countries
America
female ,655* 1,181 ,724* ,641* 1,060 ,689*25-34
distance)Age-group 35-44 ,362* ,735 ,894 ,372* ,683** ,627*45-54 ,203* ,952 ,657* ,178* ,479* ,390*55+ ,148* ,438* ,557* ,182* ,293* ,730one-person hh
Household type
married/cohab couple, no children,572* 1,189 ,929 ,770 ,549** 1,280
married/cohab couple, with children,505* ,518* ,663* ,624* ,355* 1,051
single-parent family ,715* ,478 ,724 ,884 ,671 ,528t d d f il l ti l
dependent variable:
change of region of extended family, relatives only,748* ,840 ,696* ,706 ,717 ,739
other 1,605* 1,097 ,859 1,306 ,449 ,976Less than primary completed
Primar completed 1 346* 1 242 1 165 1 285 691 1 215
change of region of residence in the previous year(0: no, 1: yes)
Academic attainment Primary completed 1,346* 1,242 1,165 1,285 ,691 1,215Secondary completed 2,586* 1,207 1,448 2,492 ,920 1,052University completed 5,371* ,962 1,769 3,539* 1,366 ,900
Housing tenure Not-owned 1,353* 1,002 1,602* 1,320* 1,197 1,108Employed
(0: no, 1: yes)
* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1
Employment status
p y
Unemployed ,823* 1,195 1,384** ,765** 1,456 1,102Inactive 1,272* ,599** ,807 1,076 ,981 ,823
Citizenship by period
Citizen
Non citizen arrived before 19962,038* 1,689* ,666* 1,240 1,577
Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain
p y pof arrival
,038 ,689 ,666 , 0 ,5
Non citizen arrived post-19962,533* 2,524* ,982 ,744 2,244*
Constant ,011* ,008* ,009* ,021* ,027* ,015*
Native- NorthernCentral-
Europe 15+other
South-
Logistic regression
(Spain- long
Nativeborn
Northern-Africa
Eastern Europe
15 other develop. countries
Central America
Asia
female ,945* ,800 ,839 1,029 ,813* ,99025-34
distance)Age-group 35-44 ,694* ,805 ,753 ,792 ,911 1,06345-54 ,462* ,591** ,951 ,324* ,897 ,63555+ ,305* ,521** ,000 ,166* ,625* ,157**one-person hhmarried/cohab couple no
Household type
married/cohab couple, no children 1,074** ,727 1,307 1,360 ,963 ,619
married/cohab couple, with children ,313* ,546** ,686 ,614** ,676** ,851
single-parent family ,337* ,259 3,021 ,362** ,700 3,223
dependent variable:
change of province of extended family, relatives only ,658* 1,011 ,648 1,410 ,771 ,752
other 1,431* 1,350 1,462 1,703* ,894 ,909Less than primary completedPrimary completed 1,417* 1,162 ,744 3,067 1,453** ,941
change of province of residence in the previous year(0: no, 1: yes)
Academic attainment y p 1,417 1,162 ,744 3,067 1,453 ,941
Secondary completed 2,127* 1,361 1,209 4,650* 1,515** 1,133University completed 3,115* 2,061* 1,889 7,187* 1,749* 1,583
Housing tenure Not-owned 2,992* 1,562* 2,261* 3,403* 2,028* 1,499
E l t t t
EmployedUnemployed 1 690* 1 020 2 595* 1 797* 1 436* 1 397
(0: no, 1: yes)
* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1
Employment status Unemployed 1,690* 1,020 2,595* 1,797* 1,436* 1,397Inactive 1,154* ,724 1,100 1,509* ,894 1,205
Citizenship by period of arrival
CitizenNon citizen arrived before 1996 1,279 ,302** 1,046 1,147 1,252
Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain
Non citizen arrived post-1996 2,559* 1,118 1,367 2,618* 4,074*Constant ,005
* ,004* ,004* ,001* ,003* ,004*
In sum (I),
The similarity of the data source on internalmigration in Spain and Italy let us make ag p ycomparative study (but with the particularity thatundocumented immigrants are registered inSpain Sources and not in Italy)Spain Sources and not in Italy)The participation of immigrants in internalmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasingmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasing,but it depends on the evolution of the number ofannual inflows (positive effects). In addition, thed ti f id h ti t ff tduration of residence has a negative strong effectin the mobility of foreigners.
In sum (II),
The percentage of foreigners in internal migrationin Spain and Italy changes significantly when wein Spain and Italy changes significantly when weconsider age, gender and type of migration.W id tif i S i d It l t iWe can identify in Spain and Italy entry regionsof immigrants with a territorial role of internal
di t ib ti (l i i t ) d thredistribution (lose immigrants) and another onewith a role of final destination region (gaini i t )immigrants).
In sum (III),
Foreigners are more mobile than natives inS i d It l ith t diff bSpain and Italy, with great differences bygender.Africans and Asians have the highestintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy butintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy, butLatin-Americans are more mobile in Spainth i It lthan in Italy.
Further researchFurther research
Use the whole Census dataset for foreignhouseholds in Spainhouseholds in SpainStudy in more detail the intra-group differences(for instance Moroccans vs Gambians)(for instance, Moroccans vs Gambians)Apply multilevel models to disentangle somecontextual effectscontextual effectsIntroduce other explanatory variables related tothe labour market the social network and thethe labour market, the social network and thetiming of the family constitution in Spain
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