The South China Sea’s PerilsBill Hayton, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

• Reed Bank (Philippines)

• Vanguard Bank (Vietnam)

• Luconia Breakers (Malaysia)

China’s veto• The importance of the U-shaped (9-dash) line• Line is undefined in both its precise shape and

official meaning (map shown is from 2009)• China seems to be acting as if the line is a real

maritime boundary• Violation of spirit of 2016 Arbitration Award

PRC’s justification• Wang Yi’s remarks at ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting – 31 July 2019

• Told ministers that standoff areas are ‘disputed’

• But ‘disputed’ on what basis?

Energy

147REPSOL

146REPSOL

156REPSOL

159REPSOL

158REPSOL

157REPSOL

136REPSOL

135REPSOL

133REPSOL

134REPSOL

07/03REPSOL

15-2/01REPSOL

hstunitizationREPSOL

crd development areaREPSOL

+DQRL

+R &KL 0LQK &LW\

01

06-1

09-1

11-2

15-1

52/97 b

srkp complex

102

52/97 ab & 48/95 development area

52/97 development area

12w

106

02/97rang dong area

12w

cai nuoc

09-3 nr-dm oil field

voi trang appraisal area

01/97

tien hai c 102-106/10PVEP

111/04VIET GP

145MURPHY

144MURPHY

122ENI VN

120ENI VN

124ENI VN

132VIET GP

130VIET GP

131VIET GP

129VIET GP

149PVEP POC

148PVEP POC

127MITRA E PK

114ENI INT

12/11VIETSOV

116ENI VN

112VIET GP

01/10PVEP POC

128ONGC VDS

39IDEMITSU

40/02IDEMITSU

105-110/04KRISENERGY

115/09KRISENERGY

123SANTOS VN

117EXXONMOBIL

42PVEP POC

118EXXONMOBIL

45MITRA E MH

119EXXONMOBIL

13/03SANTOS VN

101-100/04PVEP SONGH

02/10PVEP POC

103PVEP SONGH

09-3/12VIETSOV

16-1/15VIETSOV

113VIET GP

mvhn/12ksMITRA E SH

107/04PVEP SONGH

15-1/05PVEP POC

05-2/10PVEP

04-2PEARL TP

51MITRA E TC

04-1PVEP POC

bipartite cooperationCNOOC PVEP

46/07MITRA E ND

11-2/11MURPHY PN

16-2PVEP OVS

09-3/11VIETSOV

05-3/11ROSNEFT VN

11-1CSJOC

mien vong ha noi 02QUAD EN

s 05-1b & 05-1cIDEMITSU O

10CSJOC

Block 05-3/11

Vung Tau

115°0'0"E

115°0'0"E

110°0'0"E

110°0'0"E

105°0'0"E

105°0'0"E

20°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N

15°0

'0"N

15°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

5°0'

0"N

5°0'

0"N

9LHWQDP ([SORUDWLRQ $FWLYLW\ 0DS - 'HFHPEHU 2016

%ORFN 111/04, 112 & 113 (2SHUDWRU 9,(7*$=3520 50%; 39(3 50%) - Comprehensive Report on Development Concept study of Bao Vang field completed. The Report is under rework with account of Contracting Parties' remarks. - Preparation for offshore electromagnetic survey - No drilling activities planned.

%ORFN 111/04, 112 & 113

%ORFN 114 (2SHUDWRU (1, 50%; (66$5 50%) - Prospect generation ongoing %ORFN 116 (2SHUDWRU (1, 100%) - G&G study ongoing %ORFN 120 (2SHUDWRU (1, 66.67%; .5,6 (1(5*< 33.33%) - Block scale seismic interpretation ongoing - Ca Ngu 3D PSDM processing ongoing. - Other G&G study ongoing. %ORFN 122 (2SHUDWRU (1, 100%) - Prospect ranking ongoing - Other G&G study ongoing %ORFN 124 (2SHUDWRU (1, 60%; 6$1726 40%) - G&G study ongoing

%ORFN 114, 116, 120, 122, 124

%ORFN 105-110/04 (2SHUDWRU .5,6 (1(5*< 51%, 391 49%) - Basin re-modelling completed. - 2D PSDM processing completed. - TCM was successfully held. %ORFN 115/09 (.5,6 (1(5*< 100%) - 2D seismic interpretation for the top reservoirs on-going. - Basin re-modelling is being finalized.

%ORFN 105-110/04, 115/09

%ORFN 144 & 145 (0853+< 65%; 39(3 35%) - Subsurface evaluation ongoing

%ORFN 144, 145

%ORFN 51 (0,75$ 70%; 39(3 30%) - Outline Development Plan (ODP) for the gas discoveries (U Minh in block 51 and Nam Du in block 46/07) has been submitted to PVN for review and approval. %ORFN 45, 46/07 (0,75$ 70%; 39(3 30%) - ODP has been submitted and waiting partners approval

%ORFN 45, 46/07, 51

%ORFN 01/10 & 02/10 (39(3 100%) - RAR KNV field ongoing. - Interpretation and mapping for KND-OPAL-KNV Dong areas. - ODP KNV field ongoing. %ORFN 05.1D (39(3 100%) - Dai Hung RAR, and Dai Hung Nam RAR is ongoing. - Well planning DHN-4X, ThN-2X. - Prospects evaluation for remaining fault blocks. - Well monitoring for production.

%ORFNV 01/10 & 02/10, 05.1D

%ORFN 09-3/12 (9,(76293(752 55%; 39(3 30%; %,7(;&2 15%) - Ca Tam's HIIP report was submitted to PVN for approval. - Discussion on Ca Tam field's ODP between partners ongoing %ORFN 12/11 (=$58%(=1+()7 100%) - Appraisal well TN-3X: drilling second pilot hole to 4509m with 75-degree deviation. - Petroleum system modeling update- ongoing. %ORFN 04-3 (=$58%(=1+()7 49%; 391 51%) - Preparing for Thien Ung's first gas: Dec. 2016 - Development well drilling: TU"-6, current depth at 2375 m MD. TD- 3262 mMD

%ORFNV 04-3, 09-3/12, 12/11

%ORFN 13/03 (2SHUDWRU 6$1726 45%; 39(3 35%; 0853+< 20%) -Block 13/03 OCM & MCM was held on 7th December.

%ORFN 13/03

%ORFN 05-3/11 (5261()7 100%) - CCTB-1 X post well evaluation completed - Continued assessment of TTN carbonate prospect. Well location justification is on -going

%ORFN 05-3/11

%ORFN 04-2 (2SHUDWRU 08%$'$/$ 90%; %,7(;&2 10%) Seismic processing is ongoing with CGGVeritas in Singapore. Final PSTM for was received on 29 Oct 2015 respectively . Interpretation is in progress

%ORFN 04-2

%ORFN 10 & 11.1 (2SHUDWRU: &21 621, 39(3 50%; 3HWURQDV 40%; 3HUWDPLQD 10%) - Fulfilling remaining final well report. - Finalizing block evaluation report, preparing for shop closing report. - Planing for P&A GC-1P

%ORFN 10 & 11.1

2SHUDWRU 5(362/ 100% - Currently evaluating existing data and determining forward work program - Initial planning for Multi-beam and Drop coring program is underway.

%ORFN 156, 157, 158, 159

%ORFN 128 (21*& 100%) - Phase One of Initial Term of Exploration of Block 128 has further been extended until 15th June 2017. - Integrated 2D Petroleum System Modeling study in progress. Also interacting with VPI for having more data for the study.

%ORFN 128

%ORFN 121 (2SHUDWRU 25,*,1 45%; 333 15%; 35(0,(5 40%) - The Block 121 JV will be surrendering the block at the end of Phase 2 of the PSC - Block 121 Final Technical Evaluation Report is underway.

%ORFN 121

%ORFN 133-134 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 49%; 391 51%) - Regional and prospect specific mapping is ongoing %ORFN 135-136 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 40%; 39(3 40%; 08%$'$/$ 20%) - Draft Appraisal Plan for 136-CKD-1X discovery has been submitted to PVN. Awaiting approvals - Initial planning for Multi-beam and Drop coring program is underway. - Scoping underway for a 3D seismic program in 2018

%ORFNV 133-134, 135-136

2SHUDWRU (;;21 02%,/ 85%; 39(3 15% No information

%ORFN 117, 118, 119

2SHUDWRU: 0,75$ 100% - Completing evaluation of CBM potential.

%ORFN 09+1/12.6

%ORFN 127 (0,75$ 100%) - Prospect evaluation update in progress.

%ORFN 127

%ORFN 11-2/11 (2SHUDWRU 0853+< 60%; 39(3 40%) - Finalizing Post Well Study Report.

%ORFN 11-2/11

%ORFN 148, 149 (39(3 100%) 1100km2 3D interpretation is ongoing. Preparing for upcoming drilling campaign 2015 (Q4)

%ORFN 148-149

%ORFN 101-100/04 (39(3 100%) Fault Seal Analysis, Specific Seismic Study: completed 3D seismic interpretation: completed %ORFN 102/10 & 106/10 (39(3 100%) Interpretation new 3D & 2D : Updating HRD-1X (Ham Rong Dong: 106/10) Spud date 22nd April 2014 Primary target: Fractured Carbonate Basement Secondary: Sandstone/Limestone Oligocene Finished DST#1 (Basement): Gas & Condensate discovery Conducting DST#2 (Oligocene): Major Gas Discovery %ORFN 103 ± 107/4 (39(3 55%, 3(7521$6 45 %) - 3D seismic acquisition over Ky Lan prospect (950km2) and 103D prospect (300km2) is on going

%ORFN 101-100/04, 102/10 & 106/10, 103 ± 107/4

%ORFN 123 (2SHUDWRU 6$1726 50%; 39(3 30%; 6. (1(5*< 20%) - Planning for deepwater drilling continues.

%ORFN 123

%ORFN 146 &147 (5HSVRO 80%; 391 20%) - Regional Data Mapping is nearing completion - Currently integrating study into overall tectonic framework. - Initial planning for Multi -beam and Drop coring program is underway. - Scoping underway for a 2D seismic program in 2018.

%ORFN 146-147

%ORFN 129, 130, 131, 132 (9,(7*$=3520 100%) - Processing and analysis of drilling and testing data from the wells VGP-130-TD-1X and VGP-131-TB-1X, 2D seismic data reinterpretation and current reserves estimation. - Procedure of service contracts completion.

%ORFNV 129, 130, 131, 132

%ORFN 42 (2SHUDWRU 39(3 51%; 963 49%) - G&G works (2D Seismic reprocessing, Structural study) is ongoing - Well planning ongoing.

%ORFN 42

- %ORFN 05-1E & 05-1F: 2SHUDWRU ,'(0,768 35% (1,3321 35%; 7(,.2.8 30%) Subsurface follow-up work both for Dai Nguyet (DN) and Sao Vang (SV) discoveries is ongoing. - Post SVW-1X well evaluation is ongoing - Remaining potential study of the block is completed Development: - ODP has been submitted to PVN - FEED is ongoing

%ORFN 05-1E & 05-1F

- %ORFN 39 & 40/02 (2SHUDWRU ,'(0,768 75%; 680,7202 25%) - Prospect evaluation is ongoing - One exploration well is planned to drill in 2018.

%ORFN 39 & 40/02

%ORFN 15-1/05 (39(3 40%; 0853+< 35%; 6. (1(5*< 25%) - RAR LDV ongoing.

%ORFNV 15-1/05

%ORFN 09-2/09 (39(3 100%) - RAR for Kinh Ngu Trang Nam is ongoing. - Seismic re-interpretation is ongoing - Basic of design KNT-KTN is ongoing %ORFN 09-2/10 (39(3 100%) - Seismic re-interpretation and prospect ranking ongoing

%ORFNV 09-2/09, 09-2/10

%ORFN 07/03 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 46.75%; 08% 21.25%; 391 15%; 39(3 12.75%; 333 4.25%) - Draft FDP has been submitted for CRD field. - Contracting is underway for CRD development. - Cobia Area 3D has been completed, with data having been delivered. Final interpretation is underway. PI workshop was undertaken to select a well location for 2017 - Completing various study work to define forward drilling plans - Initial planning is underway for a shallow water drilling program in 2017

%ORFNV 07/03

%ORFN 16-1/15 (9,(76293(752 51%; 39(3 29%; %,7(;&2 10%; 629,&2 10%) - Carrying on the 2016 & 2017 Work Program and Budget of this block

%ORFNV 16-1/15

Commercial seismic survey operation in July 2019

Survey ship Haiyang Dizhi 8 plus escorts from China Coast Guard & militia

(Data from Ryan Martinson, China Maritime Studies Institute)

WAB-21

2019 Vietnam standoff

U-shaped line

Survey tracks

147REPSOL

146REPSOL

156REPSOL

159REPSOL

158REPSOL

157REPSOL

136REPSOL

135REPSOL

133REPSOL

134REPSOL

07/03REPSOL

15-2/01REPSOL

hstunitizationREPSOL

crd development areaREPSOL

+DQRL

+R &KL 0LQK &LW\

01

06-1

09-1

11-2

15-1

52/97 b

srkp complex

102

52/97 ab & 48/95 development area

52/97 development area

12w

106

02/97rang dong area

12w

cai nuoc

09-3 nr-dm oil field

voi trang appraisal area

01/97

tien hai c 102-106/10PVEP

111/04VIET GP

145MURPHY

144MURPHY

122ENI VN

120ENI VN

124ENI VN

132VIET GP

130VIET GP

131VIET GP

129VIET GP

149PVEP POC

148PVEP POC

127MITRA E PK

114ENI INT

12/11VIETSOV

116ENI VN

112VIET GP

01/10PVEP POC

128ONGC VDS

39IDEMITSU

40/02IDEMITSU

105-110/04KRISENERGY

115/09KRISENERGY

123SANTOS VN

117EXXONMOBIL

42PVEP POC

118EXXONMOBIL

45MITRA E MH

119EXXONMOBIL

13/03SANTOS VN

101-100/04PVEP SONGH

02/10PVEP POC

103PVEP SONGH

09-3/12VIETSOV

16-1/15VIETSOV

113VIET GP

mvhn/12ksMITRA E SH

107/04PVEP SONGH

15-1/05PVEP POC

05-2/10PVEP

04-2PEARL TP

51MITRA E TC

04-1PVEP POC

bipartite cooperationCNOOC PVEP

46/07MITRA E ND

11-2/11MURPHY PN

16-2PVEP OVS

09-3/11VIETSOV

05-3/11ROSNEFT VN

11-1CSJOC

mien vong ha noi 02QUAD EN

s 05-1b & 05-1cIDEMITSU O

10CSJOC

Block 05-3/11

Vung Tau

115°0'0"E

115°0'0"E

110°0'0"E

110°0'0"E

105°0'0"E

105°0'0"E

20°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N

15°0

'0"N

15°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

5°0'

0"N

5°0'

0"N

9LHWQDP ([SORUDWLRQ $FWLYLW\ 0DS - 'HFHPEHU 2016

%ORFN 111/04, 112 & 113 (2SHUDWRU 9,(7*$=3520 50%; 39(3 50%) - Comprehensive Report on Development Concept study of Bao Vang field completed. The Report is under rework with account of Contracting Parties' remarks. - Preparation for offshore electromagnetic survey - No drilling activities planned.

%ORFN 111/04, 112 & 113

%ORFN 114 (2SHUDWRU (1, 50%; (66$5 50%) - Prospect generation ongoing %ORFN 116 (2SHUDWRU (1, 100%) - G&G study ongoing %ORFN 120 (2SHUDWRU (1, 66.67%; .5,6 (1(5*< 33.33%) - Block scale seismic interpretation ongoing - Ca Ngu 3D PSDM processing ongoing. - Other G&G study ongoing. %ORFN 122 (2SHUDWRU (1, 100%) - Prospect ranking ongoing - Other G&G study ongoing %ORFN 124 (2SHUDWRU (1, 60%; 6$1726 40%) - G&G study ongoing

%ORFN 114, 116, 120, 122, 124

%ORFN 105-110/04 (2SHUDWRU .5,6 (1(5*< 51%, 391 49%) - Basin re-modelling completed. - 2D PSDM processing completed. - TCM was successfully held. %ORFN 115/09 (.5,6 (1(5*< 100%) - 2D seismic interpretation for the top reservoirs on-going. - Basin re-modelling is being finalized.

%ORFN 105-110/04, 115/09

%ORFN 144 & 145 (0853+< 65%; 39(3 35%) - Subsurface evaluation ongoing

%ORFN 144, 145

%ORFN 51 (0,75$ 70%; 39(3 30%) - Outline Development Plan (ODP) for the gas discoveries (U Minh in block 51 and Nam Du in block 46/07) has been submitted to PVN for review and approval. %ORFN 45, 46/07 (0,75$ 70%; 39(3 30%) - ODP has been submitted and waiting partners approval

%ORFN 45, 46/07, 51

%ORFN 01/10 & 02/10 (39(3 100%) - RAR KNV field ongoing. - Interpretation and mapping for KND-OPAL-KNV Dong areas. - ODP KNV field ongoing. %ORFN 05.1D (39(3 100%) - Dai Hung RAR, and Dai Hung Nam RAR is ongoing. - Well planning DHN-4X, ThN-2X. - Prospects evaluation for remaining fault blocks. - Well monitoring for production.

%ORFNV 01/10 & 02/10, 05.1D

%ORFN 09-3/12 (9,(76293(752 55%; 39(3 30%; %,7(;&2 15%) - Ca Tam's HIIP report was submitted to PVN for approval. - Discussion on Ca Tam field's ODP between partners ongoing %ORFN 12/11 (=$58%(=1+()7 100%) - Appraisal well TN-3X: drilling second pilot hole to 4509m with 75-degree deviation. - Petroleum system modeling update- ongoing. %ORFN 04-3 (=$58%(=1+()7 49%; 391 51%) - Preparing for Thien Ung's first gas: Dec. 2016 - Development well drilling: TU"-6, current depth at 2375 m MD. TD- 3262 mMD

%ORFNV 04-3, 09-3/12, 12/11

%ORFN 13/03 (2SHUDWRU 6$1726 45%; 39(3 35%; 0853+< 20%) -Block 13/03 OCM & MCM was held on 7th December.

%ORFN 13/03

%ORFN 05-3/11 (5261()7 100%) - CCTB-1 X post well evaluation completed - Continued assessment of TTN carbonate prospect. Well location justification is on -going

%ORFN 05-3/11

%ORFN 04-2 (2SHUDWRU 08%$'$/$ 90%; %,7(;&2 10%) Seismic processing is ongoing with CGGVeritas in Singapore. Final PSTM for was received on 29 Oct 2015 respectively . Interpretation is in progress

%ORFN 04-2

%ORFN 10 & 11.1 (2SHUDWRU: &21 621, 39(3 50%; 3HWURQDV 40%; 3HUWDPLQD 10%) - Fulfilling remaining final well report. - Finalizing block evaluation report, preparing for shop closing report. - Planing for P&A GC-1P

%ORFN 10 & 11.1

2SHUDWRU 5(362/ 100% - Currently evaluating existing data and determining forward work program - Initial planning for Multi-beam and Drop coring program is underway.

%ORFN 156, 157, 158, 159

%ORFN 128 (21*& 100%) - Phase One of Initial Term of Exploration of Block 128 has further been extended until 15th June 2017. - Integrated 2D Petroleum System Modeling study in progress. Also interacting with VPI for having more data for the study.

%ORFN 128

%ORFN 121 (2SHUDWRU 25,*,1 45%; 333 15%; 35(0,(5 40%) - The Block 121 JV will be surrendering the block at the end of Phase 2 of the PSC - Block 121 Final Technical Evaluation Report is underway.

%ORFN 121

%ORFN 133-134 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 49%; 391 51%) - Regional and prospect specific mapping is ongoing %ORFN 135-136 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 40%; 39(3 40%; 08%$'$/$ 20%) - Draft Appraisal Plan for 136-CKD-1X discovery has been submitted to PVN. Awaiting approvals - Initial planning for Multi-beam and Drop coring program is underway. - Scoping underway for a 3D seismic program in 2018

%ORFNV 133-134, 135-136

2SHUDWRU (;;21 02%,/ 85%; 39(3 15% No information

%ORFN 117, 118, 119

2SHUDWRU: 0,75$ 100% - Completing evaluation of CBM potential.

%ORFN 09+1/12.6

%ORFN 127 (0,75$ 100%) - Prospect evaluation update in progress.

%ORFN 127

%ORFN 11-2/11 (2SHUDWRU 0853+< 60%; 39(3 40%) - Finalizing Post Well Study Report.

%ORFN 11-2/11

%ORFN 148, 149 (39(3 100%) 1100km2 3D interpretation is ongoing. Preparing for upcoming drilling campaign 2015 (Q4)

%ORFN 148-149

%ORFN 101-100/04 (39(3 100%) Fault Seal Analysis, Specific Seismic Study: completed 3D seismic interpretation: completed %ORFN 102/10 & 106/10 (39(3 100%) Interpretation new 3D & 2D : Updating HRD-1X (Ham Rong Dong: 106/10) Spud date 22nd April 2014 Primary target: Fractured Carbonate Basement Secondary: Sandstone/Limestone Oligocene Finished DST#1 (Basement): Gas & Condensate discovery Conducting DST#2 (Oligocene): Major Gas Discovery %ORFN 103 ± 107/4 (39(3 55%, 3(7521$6 45 %) - 3D seismic acquisition over Ky Lan prospect (950km2) and 103D prospect (300km2) is on going

%ORFN 101-100/04, 102/10 & 106/10, 103 ± 107/4

%ORFN 123 (2SHUDWRU 6$1726 50%; 39(3 30%; 6. (1(5*< 20%) - Planning for deepwater drilling continues.

%ORFN 123

%ORFN 146 &147 (5HSVRO 80%; 391 20%) - Regional Data Mapping is nearing completion - Currently integrating study into overall tectonic framework. - Initial planning for Multi -beam and Drop coring program is underway. - Scoping underway for a 2D seismic program in 2018.

%ORFN 146-147

%ORFN 129, 130, 131, 132 (9,(7*$=3520 100%) - Processing and analysis of drilling and testing data from the wells VGP-130-TD-1X and VGP-131-TB-1X, 2D seismic data reinterpretation and current reserves estimation. - Procedure of service contracts completion.

%ORFNV 129, 130, 131, 132

%ORFN 42 (2SHUDWRU 39(3 51%; 963 49%) - G&G works (2D Seismic reprocessing, Structural study) is ongoing - Well planning ongoing.

%ORFN 42

- %ORFN 05-1E & 05-1F: 2SHUDWRU ,'(0,768 35% (1,3321 35%; 7(,.2.8 30%) Subsurface follow-up work both for Dai Nguyet (DN) and Sao Vang (SV) discoveries is ongoing. - Post SVW-1X well evaluation is ongoing - Remaining potential study of the block is completed Development: - ODP has been submitted to PVN - FEED is ongoing

%ORFN 05-1E & 05-1F

- %ORFN 39 & 40/02 (2SHUDWRU ,'(0,768 75%; 680,7202 25%) - Prospect evaluation is ongoing - One exploration well is planned to drill in 2018.

%ORFN 39 & 40/02

%ORFN 15-1/05 (39(3 40%; 0853+< 35%; 6. (1(5*< 25%) - RAR LDV ongoing.

%ORFNV 15-1/05

%ORFN 09-2/09 (39(3 100%) - RAR for Kinh Ngu Trang Nam is ongoing. - Seismic re-interpretation is ongoing - Basic of design KNT-KTN is ongoing %ORFN 09-2/10 (39(3 100%) - Seismic re-interpretation and prospect ranking ongoing

%ORFNV 09-2/09, 09-2/10

%ORFN 07/03 (2SHUDWRU 79/ 46.75%; 08% 21.25%; 391 15%; 39(3 12.75%; 333 4.25%) - Draft FDP has been submitted for CRD field. - Contracting is underway for CRD development. - Cobia Area 3D has been completed, with data having been delivered. Final interpretation is underway. PI workshop was undertaken to select a well location for 2017 - Completing various study work to define forward drilling plans - Initial planning is underway for a shallow water drilling program in 2017

%ORFNV 07/03

%ORFN 16-1/15 (9,(76293(752 51%; 39(3 29%; %,7(;&2 10%; 629,&2 10%) - Carrying on the 2016 & 2017 Work Program and Budget of this block

%ORFNV 16-1/15

Rosneft drilled at Block 06/01 July-September 2019 but cancelled in 2020

Repsol suspended Block 136 in June 2017 and Block 07/03 in March 2018

Near WAB-21 awarded to Crestone in 1992, now with HK-listed Brightoil (?)

WAB-21

2020 Vietnam intimidation

Rosneft 06-01

Repsolwells

U-shaped line

ReedBank

Calam

ian

China’s U-shaped lineRed = 2009Green = 1947

Malampaya

Rules

Before the Arbitration After the Arbitration

China’s murky legal position

• Shicun Wu & Keyuan Zou, Arbitration Concerning the South China Sea (2016) p132

Four shas

Xisha(West sands)

Dongsha(East sands)

Zhongsha(Central sands)

Nansha(South sands)

“China has the right to take those groups of islands within the Spratlys that are relatively close to each other as a single entity to establish territorial sea baselines, and China’s Spratly Islands in the SCS have maritime administrative zones such as territorial seas, EEZ and continental shelf.”

Communist Party School, Centre for Research on the Theoretical

System of Socialism With Chinese Characteristics. PLA Daily, p.6,

18 July 2016

Source: Andrew Chubb SouthSeaConversations

20 July 2016

Map: AMTI (CSIS, Washington)

A Chinese innovation?

‘historic rights’

• Professor Fu Kuen-chen: inventor of the ‘historic rights’ argument• Invented in Taiwan• Argument dates only from July 1989 – it’s not ‘historic’• 1998 PRC Law on Exclusive Economic Zone includes ‘historic rights’

Security

China’s submarine bastion

20198 FONOPS

20208 FONOPS(so far…)

Data fromCollin Koh

Taiwan’s dilemma• Taiwan has the archives to undermine PRC maritime claims• PRC activities in SCS are threatening to Taiwan’s security• But PRC can easily pressure Taiwan in SCS

• Does Taiwan stick with a ‘one China’ attitude to SCS?• Can other states incentivize Taiwan to take a new position?

Bill Hayton

Associate Fellow, Chatham House

@bill_hayton