the south africa i know, the home i understand
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United Nations Regional Seminar Promotion and Utilization of Census Results 24 March 2014. Dr Arulsivanathan Naidoo South Africa. The South Africa I know, the Home I understand. National Approaches for encouraging utilization of census data. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
United Nations Regional Seminar
Promotion and Utilization of Census Results
24 March 2014
Dr Arulsivanathan NaidooSouth Africa
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National Approaches for encouraging utilization of census data
• Approaches taken to communicate the value of the Census results to the non traditional users
• Strategies for the utilization by local municipalities
• Promotion of Census at schools• Role of Statistical literacy• Utilization by the general public
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Role of Statistics South Africa• Change of Vision and Mission
• CRUISE ( Centre of Rural and Urban Innovation and Statistical Exploration)
• Shape files– Province , Districts/Municipalities, Main Places, Sub Places
• Data for each polygon– Attribute tables from Supercross
– Key Account Management– Staff movement and new computers
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Texture
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Utilization by the general public
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• Segmentation of our Stakeholders• In 1996 Census we were selling the census results
for $100 000 for one CD• In Census 2001 the data was free but mostly in our
storerooms.• For Census 2011 we are taking the data to the
people – FREE.• Looking at ways to make more non users become
users
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Promotion of Census at schools
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• Promoting Census @ Schools• Loading Census Data for teaching GIS
– 24 Marks in this year’s matric is on GIS
• Maths for Stats program in schools• Soccer for Stats program in Schools
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Role of Statistical literacy
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• New vision and mission– Marketing Division
• Selling data – Free data
• Free Training• Supercross• GIS (ArcMap)• SAS (Analysis software, EXCEL)
• Free Analysis• Marketing, NSSD, Provincial SSI
• Employing 30 interns with honours in Statistics
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Census results to the non traditional users
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• How do we make non users to become users• Embassies in South Africa• Political Parties• Sporting Bodies• Thusong Centres ( Community Centres)• Ipads – Rombi• Cell Phones – Mobi
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Utilization by local municipalities
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• Use of Census data in IDP’s• Training on Spatial Statistics• Bringing together the Municipal GIS team and
the analysis team• Spatial Statistics
• Clustering, Autocorrelation, hot spot analysis, Geographically weighted regression
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Stakeholders Matrix
• Miners 10% sample unit records from Census
• Drillers Supercross data (create tables)• Harvesters Harmonized data (1996, 2001)• Prospectors Printed products, website• Tourists one figure,• Non Users people not using our data
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Looking for a partner Supercross
• Male• Zulu speaking• Age 22-25 years• Degree• Salary > R300 000• Never married
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segmentation
Miners Drillers Harvesters prospectors Tourists
National Government
Universities
Business
Municipalities
NGO's
Researcher Institutions
Public
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
Miners Drillers Harvesters prospectors Tourists
National Government
Universities
Business
Municipalities
NGO's
Researcher Institutions
Public
Gauteng Miners Drillers Harvesters prospectors Tourists
National Government
Universities
Business
Municipalities
NGO's
Researcher Institutions
Public
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CRM
• Customer relationship management database– Capture stakeholder information daily– Segment by geographical area– Segment by type of user
• Release 10% Census. Who to contact and the area
– Segment by release (event)• Invitation to releases, events, etc
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Harmonised data
• Harmonized Census data at ward levels for the years 1996 and 2001 to match 2011 boundaries.
• Measure service delivery per ward.– Silvertown in 1996 had 98% bucket toilets– In 2011 the figure dropped to 96%
• Information given to political parties
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Town Email address Telephone NumberMALMESBURY [email protected] (022) 4874598MALMESBURY [email protected] (022) 4821469Piketberg 022 913 1770MOORREESBURG [email protected] 022 433 2253
MOORREESBURG [email protected] 022 433 2253
Porterville 022 931 2211Vredenburg [email protected] (022) 7131151
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Spatial Statistics
• Show data spatially.• Clustering of data.• Hot spot analysis.• Anselin Outlier analysis.• Ordinary least squares Regression• Geographically weighted Regression
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High Schools in Cape Town
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Sri Lanka Anselin Outlier Analysis
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Hot Spot Analysis
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Anselin Outlier Analysis
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Variable Estimate t-statistic p-value VIF
Intercept 58.92 20.48 <0.0001 ***
Computer 0.09 2.07 0.041 *** 4.96
Employed 0.13 2.31 0.020 *** 1.82
Telephone 0.12 2.88 0.004 *** 4.89
Pass =58.92 +0.13 Employment +0.12 Telephone +0.09 Computer
Regression Model
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Simpsons Paradox
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Non Stationary Process
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Geographically Weighted Regression
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Partnership
• Stats SA Marketing• Census 1996 data sold for R600 000• Census 2011 data is free
• Change in focus of Marketing division.• Evidence based decision making
• Load data to all in municipality• Community ( IDP ward council)
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Census Data for IDP’s
• Email to IDP managers• Many responded positively• Some supercross not working• Few never heard of supercross
• Key account management• Staff leave• Computers are replaced• Continuous engagement with stakeholders.
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Link Census with other Information
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• Release the causes of death.– Show the socio economic conditions– Intestinal diseases higher where no flush toilets
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Small Area Estimation
• 10 years between Censuses• Census 2001 data used for over 10 years
• Equitable share formula• Planning• Budgeting
• Stats SA performs Mid year estimates• Provincial and National level• District and Local municipality level• Wards level
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Isibalo Workshops• User group workshops
• Where users and come and present how they are using our data for evidence based decision making.
• Presentations to benefit other users• 2013 we held 8 provincial and 1 National workshop
– 200 presentations from users– >1000 delegates that attended
• Awards Evening• Fortunate index • Politician Ward Councillor • Monitoring and Evaluation
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Creating a Database of Africa Census data
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand
• Proposed project funded by AFDB• Merge some variables from all countries
– Age, Gender
• Many countries have common questions in 2010 round of census
• Possible recommendations for 2020 round
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Thank youDr. Arulsivanathan Naidoo
[email protected] 880 1684
Special Census [email protected]
The South Africa I know, the Home I understand